Mark Seeley presents his annual “Take the Weather Quiz” to the audience at the State Fair. Topics include history of State Fair weather, cold temperature ranges, possible El Nino, and snow forecast for upcoming winter. Seeley also answers audience questions.
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Explain what's going to happen here as you heard Center Carey still talking and that's going out on the radio. But since you folks are came by to hear Mark Seeley, what we'll do is just do a little weather show here. And then when he's finished, we'll have to stop for a minute and start all over on the radio. So it'll sound kind of weird, but that's okay. Well have fun Mark has the whole Treasure Trove of weather related gifts. And of course that's tied to the ever-popular.Annual Minnesota State Fair weather quiz that Mark is has put together one you always do so well on well, absolutely. Absolutely last year and I was looking I cheated I looked over the list. And I got one right again this year but here's the deal real informal. Come on up Curtis is Mike there so that everybody can hear your question or he'll come over to you. Got a weather question for Mark and then if your game Mark will ask you a question from the weather quiz. And what do you get it right or not? You'll get a prize that's fair enough to make sense. Just come up and pick one price. Yeah, that's that's fine. Okay, and he's got some good ones are rain gauges and calculators rulers all kinds of stuff. So anyway, and for those of you who are not totally familiar with the doctor of whether we should explain that Mark is a climatologist meteorologist at the University of Minnesota gear in every Friday on Morning Edition. Fortunately, he comes on midday from time to time and a real State Fair tradition. He's been our leadoff batter here at the state fair for got a dozen years now. So anyway, let me ask you the first question. I'll mark okay, if you could gauge the quality the level of difficulty to the degree of difficulty of the State Fair quiz this year are we talkin phd-level or graduate-level? No, no choice is other than that. Those are the well somewhere down at graduate-level upper graduate. Let's get started. What the heck? Who's got a question for Mark Seeley. Go ahead. What causes fog? Well there's a variety of things that cause fog but fundamentally what happens is when you have a day like today and we all know there's a lot of water vapor in the air today if the surface stays cool and cools down to the condensation point all that water vapor will condense into a very microscopic liquid droplets and in the absence of wind like we have today it'll likely just stay suspended in the lower atmosphere. And so you'll get fog something we've already had this week. In fact were you driving in the fog this week? Yeah. It was it was no fun. No fun at all. But quite a change though from what we've had earlier this summer. We seek for a frequently do midday on the Frog you want to answer a question? All right, I'll give you the leadoff question because this is made a lot of headlines lately. You know, we've been having a cool summer one of the coolest actually in many years and Minnesota has led the nation in reporting the lowest temperature in the nation a number of times this year excluding, Alaska. So will rule out Alaska how many times has Minnesota reported the nation's lowest temperature so far in 2004 and I'll give you 3 multiple choices. Okay. Okay help you out a little bit a 10 x be 70 x or C 30 x I think it's 70. You're absolutely right. And in fact one, excellent. In fact, we haven't led the nation that so frequently in cold since 1992. So we're kind of getting back to those old Minnesota Traditions Dunt Dunt Dunt Dunt Dunt Dunt Dunt Dunt. Believe me. How about one of those snow gauge is Marques yellow high on the snow stick that is in committed intense of an inch snow rules Hills, by the way, our new state climatology project in northeastern, Minnesota to better measure snow. Okay. Well then, you know your if your husband misbehave just waxed. Yeah question the last two seasons growing Seasons we've had what I call a like precipitation comes from the West it doesn't north-south split around the Twin Cities and then reforms in the Eau Claire area it's two years in a row like them where the center of the drought pattern what's going on here that is a stumper pain above weather equivalent of the heat island to stumper I don't yeah. Yeah. I don't know that I can tell you except in the if you're talkin about the heart of the summer Show the whole Quail. Well, it might have to do with a feature. We call Landscape feedback. But basically what that means is the surrounding areas beyond the metro area. They're emitting a lot more water vapor into the lower atmosphere because we have the presence of Agriculture for one thing they're so and we have crops that are transpiring or using up the moisture stored in the soil releasing those into the lower layer. So sometimes when we get precipitation patterns that come across west to east as you say in order to sustain that concert continuity and keep the moisture flow in the low levels going they'll benefit from that rural landscape and they won't from the Twin Cities metro area as much so at certain times of the year. You can almost expect a little bit of dissipation due to the urban area. That's not a soul explanation. And in fact, I'd really have to say I don't know the full answer. It could be a random thing. We're could be tied to something else, but that's a good observation because several people have remarked on that the last two years. In fact, even the staff out of the National Weather Service in Chanhassen have noticed that feature. Well, are you ready to answer question? Okay. Okay. I'll ask you a historical. How long have you lived in, Minnesota? Oh, okay. Then this is right up your alley historically. Which month of the year which month of the year in Minnesota exhibits the largest range in temperature conditions from the absolute State Maximum to the absolute State minimum. I'll give you I'll give you three choices. What number is this? Marcus is number 5 the month of November is a the month of March is B and the month of January is C. That was March. Then you're absolutely right and believe it or not. We've had a high of eighty-eight a low of minus 50 and there are not many states that can claim that range in. Temperature 8° Mark. Yeah. I heard somewhere that only Siberia out does Us in terms of the range of temperatures. Is that right? That's right. There are areas in Siberia that have a range of over a hundred and fifty degrees. So we're number two. We're number 2 but minnesotans are happy to be number to come up and pick a price. Absolutely. All right, by the way is everybody registered to win the scooter? Make sure before you leave wander off make sure you get your name in the drawing for the somebody win it and give yourself a chance to win that. Okay, we've got another question for Mark phrases raining cats and dogs come from that is a good question. I'm not absolutely sure this but what I've read is that in centuries ago when they used to have a fax roofs in a lot of the European a houses used to have thatch roofs and sometimes animals of all kinds with Nestor stay up there and when you get what we call a real downpour rain, are they call that in the south of frog Strangler or something where you know, it's just pouring like the Dickens. I'm sure you've seen rains like that it'll flush all that animal life off the roof or out of the roof. And so it'll be raining cats and dogs because they'll be bailing out of the room. To escape and that's one explanation. I've read in the climatology books, but there may be other one other theory is that it relates to how well cats and dogs get along. You know, how noisy they can be. So when you have a real noisy thunderstorm Heavy Rain, maybe it relates to how noisy that rain can be to Okay. Do you want to answer a question? Okay, great. Okay. I'll I'm going to give you the one question. That Gary got right on this year's. What's the only one I got right and I'll see I'll see if you know if you know the answer and if you've been reading the papers, you'll probably be able to take a pretty good guess at this. Which of the following Atlantic hurricane names has not been used so far this year. Alex Bonnie Charlie Danielle Earl or Gary Why you got your why don't you win three choices? I'll give you three choices a Alex B or C Danielle. You're absolutely right. When the last time Gary was used by the Storm Prediction people was back in 95. So the last time Gary amounted to anything. Otherwise just a lot of hot when you can come up and pick a price. Congratulations. Okay, if you if you're just stop by here's the deal normally would be on the air with Mark Seeley University, Minnesota a climatologist meteorologist Beyond. They are doing a weather Program Center. Cary is still in the midst of his campaign rally that's out on the radio right now. We don't interrupt that. So as soon as that's done, we'll start a radio program. But meanwhile, since you folks have been good enough to class to come by Mark is here to answer your weather questions off the air and then hopefully you'll agree to answer one of his weather quiz questions and take one of these one of these prizes that he has available. Will you did a good job Danielle? Excellent job. That's what we're up to here. And don't be shy just come on up and Curtis will get the microphone ready for you. Go ahead, please when I hear the weather reported on public radio, it's usually about 5 or even up to 10 degrees difference than the weather at my house and I only live how do I only live like in the Hudson Wisconsin area, so is it St. Croix River my temperature in the summer is usually higher in at night. It's usually lower than what I hear for the Twin City report. Remember that what you're specifically comparing is your place in Hudson to the Minneapolis-Saint Paul International Airport and the and the sensors out. There are located out on the runway off the West End of the runway the approach for aircraft. Okay, and they're over a very exposed open grassy strip area. If I'm not mistaken though the terrain around Hudson, it can be fairly rolling. Do you have some slopes and hills around you and stuff like that so that can just by itself trap the incoming solar radiation from the Sun and then re-radiated and actually heat the surrounding air to a greater extent than they expose your that's going on out there at the internet. Airport so I guess that's not surprising but it can also be related to cloud cover the presents and Persistence of fog may be fog gets Amplified by the st. Croix River Valley so that it persists longer than your you know your ear so he could have temperature differences for a variety of reasons, but it's fundamentally you can have temperature differences. For example across the 7 County Metro area where we've got a number volunteer observers. We've measured instantaneous temperature differences like say you want to know what it was at 7 a.m. This morning will weave measure spreads greater than 10 degrees just across the metro area at the same point in time. So it could be yeah, you can be pretty pretty darn variable. No, I'm not a genius but I have benefited from living here for a while. So what would you be willing to take a question? Okay. Okay. Let me give you one that is a true or false. Okay, that's pretty basic. You got a fifty-fifty here, but this too was in the headlines as the previous question this past year. true or false Katarina the first-ever satellite detected hurricane in the South Atlantic Ocean struck the coast of Brazil back on March 28th of this year. How was she supposed to know that well? You say it's fall. I'm going by my neighbor hear false. It's absolutely true. It's absolutely true and some inferred that that is a signal of how the climate is changing. But we have to temper that conclusion by the fact that we've only been able to detect hurricanes in the South Atlantic consistently since we launched satellites in the 1970s. So when we go back and we make a statement like that as was printed in the paper, we have to be careful because maybe back a hundred years or so. We don't know what happened there. Maybe this is a type of a climate or cyclical event comes around once every hundred years or so. But anyway, that's how that storm made the headlines. It was a it was a category 1 hurricane in the South Atlantic which had previously been undetected. Okay, sign up again. What you going to pick for a prize? I think over in Hudson you'd might want to be the first one to own an official snow stick. But yeah, thermometers pocket thermometers calculators a mug. I mean, he's our life changing gifts, you know, you'll never be the same after you sorry. Mark by-the-way may or may not be a genius but he is a heck of a nice guy. You know, I think it comes across on the radio, but I've had the pleasure of working with him for years and he's about as sweet as high as you're ever going to make. Thank you. And you also know if you've been following the papers the state fair run this year is supposed to be wetter than normal. So thank goodness for what we have so far here. Keep our fingers. Yeah. Okay question, please. Early Leaf color of this year. I want to know if there's going to be enough warm weather yet historically to color my tomatoes red. Well, I'm optimistic. I'll tell you why I mean, we're in the same situation. I don't know how many Green Tomatoes stories. I've already heard, but I'll all over our neighborhood in Saint Anthony Park that's prep prevalent as well. But I think we're starting to get into a pattern that's going to persist through the first week of September. And then again, this is based on the recent evidence. I'll be in warmer and more humid. Warmer nights and what I've read from horticulturalist about tomatoes is that that ripening process that pigment change really needs consistent warmer nights. So if we can stay now through the first week of September along those lines, then we'll all be eating eating Garden ripe tomatoes in another week or ten days. So I'm hopeful that that'll happen doesn't necessarily mean an early Frost. Well it can Earl Keen estar former State climatologist felt that it did because he linked to the occurrence of overnight temperature The Leaf color on set being brought on by overnight temperatures that were in the thirties and goodness knows we've already had a lot of overnight lows in the 30s in August and I think partially that's why we're seeing especially in Central and Northern Minnesota. We're seeing a lot of the maples changing already some of the sumac and things like that Would you like a question check? Okay. Here's one that's comparative climate. Have you travel you've traveled outside Minnesota ever travel to Europe her? Okay. Great. This might be right up your alley. Rank the following cities coldest to warmest in terms of average January temperature. No January temperature. OK long long nights short days. Anchorage, Alaska, Oslo, Norway Minneapolis-Saint Paul and I'll give you I'll give you three get three choices here, okay? coldest to warmest Anchorage Oslo Twin Cities Oslo Twin Cities Anchorage Twin Cities Anchorage, Oslo, you're absolutely right which runs completely counter to Latitude cuz we're only at 45 degrees north latitude are both Anchorage in Oslo or above 60 so very good. You want to come and pick a price? Excellent. Excellent. All right. There's anybody else here in the audience have a question for Mark as we go here we go down here that wants to ask a question. Before you were talking about changing the way that the snow snow levels are measured. Can you talk more about that? Are you going to do to snow measurements what you did to the windshield? Are you a radio announcer? Not yet? Good Lord. You've got a great voice in some sense your bring up a sore point, but it's valid. It's probably deserving of more broad public discussion. And that is to some extent the snowfall records already contaminated and when we go back and we compare say a hundred or a hundred fifty years of snow day to we have to be really careful. And the reason is that much of the historical data was a snow measurement taken with the maybe a device like this on a snowboard. Measuring the depth of snow. That was a once-a-day measurement. So you go out at 8 in the morning and make a measurement. Maybe you go out at 8 the next morning and make a measurement. Will we know what snow can do when snow is falling it can it can fall it irate anywhere from a fraction to up two to three inches per hour. What what's it what's going to happen as it settles it's going to compact down, right? So a lot of the historical records we go back to and like the famous Armistice Day blizzard 1940 one of the most famous Minnesota blizzards ever. Anywhere from 16 to 17 in of snow with measure, okay, but in the modern context if we've got the modern Observer out now in many locations, they're measuring that hourly. Okay, as was the famous Halloween blizzard of November 1991. Do you remember that? 128 in I just barely missed that one is okay. But anyway, so what where where are you going to I mean, how are you going to compare those? You got a measurement that was a 24-hour cycle versus a measurement. That was a cumulative 24 hours on an hourly cycle. So you're right. It's very difficult to compare their trying to develop techniques. If you will to go back and adjust numerically, you don't try to make by comparing old and new with hourly deposition and try to compare but it's not that's a very uncertain to snow measurement by itself is very uncertain. And causes us a lot of headaches and you have techniques to compare like a wet heavy snow to a light fluffy snow. Well, there's a handful of observers. They also take what we call snow density measurements. So what they'll do is they'll take up a cylinder or column of that snow deposition and they'll melt it down and they'll actually calculated and unfortunately, that's a small subset of the total observers in the state yet. It's a very critical parameter. In fact, it's extremely important when we come out of winter into spring and we want to know what's the water content of the snowpack because that's very important for flood forecasting but there's a subset of observers that regularly do that for the Weather Service. Do they have their own convention and stuff? Will we do have periodic meetings of the American Meteorological Society but and then there's the annual Governor's meeting a disaster preparedness meeting in March where they talk about all these measurements and what they mean. So I suppose along those lines. There is a regular evaluation of those kinds of features of the climate ready for a weather question yourself, or why not. Okay, let's see. Which of these Minnesota communities reported the most snowfall last winter? Hey Duluth, be International Falls City Itasca State Park. Well, I have no idea. So I'm going to guess for b b International Falls. Yes. They did have a lot of snow but Duluth let the state last year a little bit of Lake Effect coming into play. They recorded 109.9 in last winter. So but if you'd like thanks for stepping up and come on up and pick a price. Okay? Okay. Another question here for Mark Seeley again those of you who may have just wandered by this is University of Minnesota meteorologist. Climatologist, Mark Seeley who I is hurt every week on our Morning Edition program doesn't want to mid day programs. And for umpteen many years doesn't yours are so he's been our kick-off gas. Here at the State Fair where off the air right now, actually the station is doing fine, but we're in the midst of live coverage of Senator Kerry's campaign rally for so don't interrupt that. It's so instead what we're doing. is Google show right here and as soon as That gets done the rally coverage gets done, then we'll go on the radio and we'll have to start over the song that allowed here. But what the heck in the meanwhile great chance to get your questions answered and pick up a prize. Go ahead please the question as to your best for the snow forecast for this winter. If you like snow we've been on the upswing and I'll LL give you a couple of numbers that substantiate that if we go back in the Twin Cities record, as far as we can go and we sum up everything we would have to say that for probably the last o six or seven generations of Twin City and the average seasonal snowfall has been about 45 in But for you and I and everybody else in the last generation or two. It's been more like 55 or 56 in and it seems to be creeping up last year. For example, we had 66.3 so we were even above the above the recent mean. I think the way we were setting up but I this is a guess. I'm not saying all based on this model or anyting that we may have a cool snowy winter. I say that because there's some analogies to the type of Summer. We've been having in terms of cool outbreaks from high-latitude Polar air that sometimes this carries over into the fall and the early winter. There's a few examples of that historically and then that brings early onset of snow and snow cover. I mean how long has it been since we got snow cover in say November that persisted all the way through the the winter season. It's been quite a while since we've had that so A. But anyway, that's my best guess but the trend is upward on seasonal snowfall. Okay, weather question whether question okay, how about a how about our terminology? What is a box-and-whisker diagram? Okay, did we both shave today, by the way? Be displays the median of the distribution and extremes of climate data or see it's a graphical depiction of your daily forecast. I'm going to guess. Oh my whole family telling me be absolutely right family come and help yourself to a prize. Thanks a lot. What about this? Is there any correlation time about whether correlation sewing Mark any correlation between the fact we had a pretty wet cool cloudy spring is it likely we get that back then in the fall with a kind of a sunny relatively warm at least Early Autumn or is there no no connection whatsoever. We've tried to historically check all these so-called serial correlations if if your path is a what's your school your path for beer if your path is this for this season doesn't scoop are the yin and the Yang another way. I found anything that is so statistically significant that we could use it as a predictor. Haha. So that's the that's unfortunately the answer to that question. Anybody have a question another question for Mark Seeley. We still have lots of gifts to give away. And some folks working their way up. Don't be shy here. We still have what calculators rain gauges Snowshoe. I heard that El Nino is strengthening. Is that true? I'll say conditionally. Yes. It is. In fact, there was just a press release by the National Weather Service last week on that. We've been in what's called neutral status in the equatorial Pacific another words. No huge deviations in ocean temperature for quite some time. There's evidence that in one of the areas of the Pacific monitored by satellite for El Nino formation that the sea surface temperature is going up and there are some of the models that she suggests it is going to rise and continue to rise so that they could classify as a mild or modest El Nino perhaps by some time this fall But whereas we've had measurable impact Seville need you in Minnesota in years past the Weather Service. This time was real specific to point out that because this will be a slow developing and Mild episode if it in fact materializes, they don't expect it'll have any effect on our winter. So that's the latest because that really was a very recent press release from the National Weather Service. Should we challenge you would have other question I'd be willing to give it a try a great. Okay. Here's another one related to the theme this year, which is cool temperature theme. Okay, which of the following Minnesota communities hold the most Statewide considering every place in the state low temperature records a International Falls be power Minnesota if you don't know where that is Northern, St. Louis County and see embarrass, Minnesota. Who's this is a tough one because it is a most people don't know the answer to this. I'm getting a tip from behind you. Is that okay with it then cuz I was torn between 2 and 3 but I'll go with two Tower Power. If we if we take every incidence of a daily low temperature record 365 days in a year Tower holds 40 of those individual records way more than any other community. However over our lifetime embarrass is going to give it a run for the money. The reason Tower does have the advantage over embarrass your sweep had volunteer observers at Tower for many many more years than we have had it embarrassed. So consequently they have more data to fall back on. Okay. I'm on my bike to pick a prize get a prize. Hey remind me Mark. It was I don't know probably five-six years ago and now it got the 60 below zero in one of those town was there was a dueling deal. That's right. Well the thermometer malfunction that embarrass so they were disqualified and Tower came through with the record of -60 right? Do you think it was Hanky Panky there? There was certainly a lot of media attention. I just can't imagine having 50 or 60 people camped on your front lawn to see what you're going to measure for a minimum temp, but they had no no, we're in the town of embarrass. Was there a thermometer not an official one. I see I think they did move thermometers around like they went out with a pocket thermometer out there that very morning February of 96 and did record a -70 but it wasn't acceptable to the Weather Service. Going to be that cold you might as well be be really cold your question for Mark, please. in about research in about research what's on your wish list for what direction meteorological Sciences are going to be going what's The Cutting Edge? That's a good question and something. I'll just have to give you an off-the-cuff answer to because I haven't at this point. I haven't thought it through that carefully but for Minnesota and for our region as a whole we have such tremendous weather variability. In this state one of the real areas that that impacts is our health. Seriously, I mean when we have heat waves as the summer that killed Korey Stringer, for example of a few Summers with we have heat waves. We have dangerous winter storms lizards things of that nature. We thank goodness. Not as often as both coasts. You should West Coast but we do have pollution episodes stagnant are bad are episode. There's all these things and what I've learned over the years from talking to the Mayo Clinic in the U of M medical school and others is if we could get a better handle on when these are going to occur what magnitude and how long they're going to occur. We could give much better advice to the healthcare industry. So they'd be better equipped to cope with the patient load because they tend to get spikes in their patient loads very suddenly would we have these specific events or episodes of weather? And so I think that's one area of research that we could do a lot better job on. And in fact witness with France has done you might have read about this as a result of last August Heatwave in Europe that indirectly led to the death of over 10,000 people. They've deployed a whole bunch of their natural resources into trying to research and come up with better methods to forecast this threatening kind of weather. So that's but that's off the cuff. I mean, there's a lot of other there's a lot of other areas certainly that we could research but not addictive thing. Right right. Can I ask you Mark you are are you willing to answer a question? Are you guys willing to help me know? Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Alright, in fact, yeah, we'll have I will have a help to help this lady out. Why don't you ask 22? I can't even pronounce the word Yahoo. Oh, okay. Yeah, this one's you interesting. So everybody have your way in on this not a help out here. What is bear? Odontalgia? I'll spell it for you. B a r o d o n t a l g i a. Okay and say it again Bart fare odontalgia, right? All right. Yeah, I had to practice that one. Be a toothache brought on by changes in air pressure. I see a sudden change in wind direction. All right. Now how many think let's watch a hear a faulty barometer. How many think it's a faulty barometer. No applies for a faulty barometer. We got one one person back there early voting for a friend who thinks it's a toothache brought on by changes in air pressure anybody and you don't even care about the sudden change in wind direction A Private Pilot any private by the popular? Jargon is a flyers toothache. But sometimes when you're flying you can change altitude very abruptly and you can actually get a toothache as a result of the air pressure change. And in fact, they've even had instances reported where a pilot's filling is popped out that would be much fun. But I let me see if I can pronounce Road ontology the word for the day your conversation, you know. Should be a piece of cake. Please come up and take a price. I should say friends in the weather Community have been very kind to donate some of these biomes is our state climatology office that runs the snow rules the snow measurement program in Northeast Minnesota there. They donated the snow measuring stick and then whether Rambo which is a outfit in Rosemont Minnesota that sells a lot of whether paraphernalia and weather instruments also came through with something. So I need to acknowledge those people. It was very nice of them. How are you doing a thing over at the University of Minnesota building this year again? No, I'm not on the goal for stage this year I catch you on I I think I wore out I wore out. I'm sure there's a number of other good worthwhile issues going on over there though. Well, you don't wear out your welcome here. Anybody else got a question for Mark as we go. Here we go. Weren't you here last year? Yes. We just got here to talk about the snow prediction for next this coming winter are we were asked about that and I remarked that the trend is upward last year was 66.3. But it in recent years. The trend has been progressively upward are average now is about 55 or 56 in its much higher than what it was historically how about the temperature conditions? Well, that's anybody's guess we've had the as you know from living here this summer we've had plenty of cold air and I was I was answering the question that historically we've had a few instances of this historically where the cold episode frequency has persisted into the fall in early winter. So we've had an early onset of cold and snow. But there's not a firm enough statistical correlation to say that's a true predictor, but my gut feeling is we might tend to go that route. Would you like to answer? Your other question was right on number to the Earl of the American Meteorological Society are Professional Organization conducted a contest last year to come up with a name for the type of storm that causes closure of schools and early dismissal of government employees. Okay? Okay. This is a national National Nationwide contest which of the following was the winning entry. Hey a freedom Reign b emancipar cipitation or c a jailbreak storm. Let's see what the audience thinks. Okay. Alright. Alright. So let's put it to a vote here again. This would be the term that was, that can't they came up with to describe a type of storm that closed across is closure or early dismissal of Schools and Government offices. All right. The first choice would be Freedom Reign anybody voting for Freedom Reign nobody. Well, we got it. We got a couple of people voting for how about Jailbreak storm talked about this on Morning Edition. It was amounts of precipitation was the winning entry. And in fact a couple of Weather Service forecast offices have used the term e Mansa precipitate. Should be in their forecasts come on up and get a prize here. Anybody else interested in a question or prize? Come on up? Thank you. What's the weather condition that creates those beautiful drips in the clouds? Like right before or after a storm is often like tornado warnings or watches in effect, but the start to be nothing recently showed it. It's those drip sore. Sometimes you can have like 50 of them and they're beautiful pictures. What's the weather condition that creates that right? Actually that can be caused by a number of things but the most common we call those my mantis clouds or Mammoth the bulges in the cloud ceiling. Is that what you're referring to? So you see the cloud ceiling but you see the downward exactly true visions. Those protrusions are caused by the vertical motions embedded in the cloud and and they're things that we can't necessarily see but basically what is going on as you have upward and downward motions embedded in the cloud all of different scales some as small as this bottle of water some as Grand as a as a several hundreds of meters in diameter and they will carry the water vapor that and and the microscopic water that is forming the cloud and push it literally out of the base of the cloud into a protrusion like that. And but what's happening is you're forcing the wet layer of the cloud into a dry layer of atmosphere. That is just below the cloud deck. Are you with me? All the vapor deficit below? The cloud deck is fairly substantial so it can't sustain itself. So that protrusion bubbles down below. It looks like a downward protruding bubble, but it it can't it can't maintain itself cuz it's going into dryer air, but it's okay. It's a it's a signature of the presence of upward and downward motion in the cloud system to the dryer actually has an effective pushing it back up. That's right in that form shape. That's right, but that's also a precursor of But often times fairly dangerous thunderstorms because the upward and downward motions are of a pretty high order of magnitude. You might have offered at one winds that could literally tearing off in Airplane. So you don't want to you don't want to be flying through that cloud system. If you're up in your says None or something and don't thank you. I like number 19. Are you willing to answer your other question? Certainly? Okay, here's a state fair question the state fair opens today. Today is August 26th since the founding of the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities in 1891. How many times has it rained on this date? I'll give you three. I'll give you a range here a 10 x b 32 X or C 73 x Over a hundred and twenty years span of about 113 years spent 32. You're right. You're absolutely right. And you know, what's interesting about that? That's a very good answer. I could give you almost any date on the calendar. And you'd be approximately close if you said 32 and that's because the historical probability let's dismiss the forecast idea. I think the forecast today is 40% chance. So let's not let's let's write off the forecast for a minute. If you just use statistics and you picked any day on the calendar during the run of the State Fair and you guessed about 32 times historically you'd be awfully close because that's kind of been the historical frequency for everyday. Excellent. So okay, come on up and get a prize. What is the is it how does it How likely is it going to rain through the course of despair? Thanks. Well, as I mentioned earlier the official Outlook through the end of the fair, which is what this year the 6th or 5th of September is for wetter than normal conditions. So if you have a historical probability of what we just covered about 30% plus or minus, you've got inflate that so I would guess that the unbalanced you're going to have to inflate that by at least 10 or 20% So I think the run of the the run of the State Fair is likely to see more rain than normal. Maybe it'll be nocturnal when you're not here right or who knows. But anyway it is and in fact, that's been the Outlook now for quite a few days in the outlook for the pair has been consistently wetter-than-normal. So we'll see it feels like it today, but we're not we're not getting there. But I think the dew point today's pushing 70. How many of you just a show of hands how many of you pay attention to the extended forecast that you hear on the radio see on TV? So on so forth Mark are those accurate? Those are the reason I say good for you is those have improved so I will say it's better than taking out your quarter it is yeah. Yeah, they have improved especially out in the 5-day like 3 to 5 day outlook. Of course those of you that follow the Weather Service know that they even reach out 8 to 14 days now, I mean, you can get an outlook for 8 to 14 days out if you want to but those are still kind of and then what about it is these kind of these Mega forecasts where they say for example of winter forecast. Somebody says this winter will be blah blah blah, you know. Are historically about on the temperature seasonal forecast for temperature if it's going to be above or below normal to verify a little better than 60% of the time. Okay, so that's cool. I mean that's at Arsenal skill, but that's what that deal better than flipping a skill. I mean a baseball batter hits the ball if he hits it what 30% of the time for a base hit that's fantastic by 60% now on the precept if the if the precipitation outlook for a season above or below those don't even verify at 60% I mean in best cases maybe 50 to 55% or so. You really could just flip a coin. Hurry up question for me. How about the week is September 6th going camping you're going camping. Down Iowa and Iowa don't know except that the forecast of stuff. I've seen the forecast models. I've seen would suggest It won't be like today. You won't have a 70-degree dew point. Okay. The arrow be dryer and it'll probably be a few degrees cooler. That's good. I what are you got a thunderstorm hovers over you I can't say but with my luck yet? Quiz question for you, by the way, all of the weather quiz on our website. If you want to look this over and impress your friends and neighbors, you know memorize some of this Minnesota Public Radio. Org think so now I think it'll even though I only got the one right now. Okay, I'll what is the single best source. You mentioned you were going camping. What is the single best source of updated weather information anywhere in the state of Minnesota? NOAA all hazards weather radio be the internet or see television whether or not I think actually it's the your weather radio. If you got a weather radio take it with you camping. And the reason I'll tell you that is because the National Weather Service will update all weather watches and warnings and forecast updates. And it'll go out quicker on your NOAA Weather Radio than the internet or the television station will receive it. If you want to stay abreast of changes in the weather, your best insurance policy is travel with your NOAA all hazards radio, and they've got those on display over in the public safety building over here at the State Fair this year at the Weather Service Booth. If you want to see some of the different varieties come on up and get a prize if you'd like. Now that's okay say is we just enjoyed your station listen to it all the time and contribute excellent. Excellent. How do I talk to you about upgrading that membership? Thanks her go ahead. I live in Winona Minnesota and we always seem weather than the rest of this In a valley, I don't know if that's why it always. About when you guys say in the weather forecast for Morris by the state is Winona, Minnesota. So I was wondering why that is certain times of the year. I agree with you wholeheartedly my my former colleagues Earl Keen Austin Don Baker at the University. They studied the heck out of the Mississippi River Valley ain't one thing they found with the Winona area. There's two features that affect its climate and the reason it's different one is you've got a broad expanse in that Valley and most of it occupied by water. And so you have presence of water vapour. They're okay. What that's going to do is up on the Bluffs or off in the Bally's away away from the river. You're going to have overnight cold pockets of air settle there and you're going to have colder temperatures there that you're going to have right around Winona next to the river cuz you're going to have more water vapor and pretends to hold in the heat. Okay, the second feature of that environment is you got a lot of bluff faces. You got a lot of Love Faces and you got a lot of slopes to the terrain and that traps the sun's energy every day almost almost like an enhanced a parabolic dish. That's a heat storage device. Okay, so that's going to focus to capture the sun's energy and heat the air and you're going to have warmer temperatures. Now that has a lot more relevance when the sun angle is low does one the sun angles low. It's going to be hitting those Bluffs and allowing them exactly. Where is when it's high it's going to tend to make everything more uniform. So those are two features in there. Research that they discovered aren't legitimate reasons. Why one owner would have that difference from the surrounding area? Also a nice place is really a nice Highway. Not. But I answer a question. Okay, let's see. We haven't talked about High's warped. Okay, so I'll ask you one about historical warrant which Minnesota Community holds the most Statewide high temperature records. A Beardsley can't you know where Beardsley is out Big Stone County what the Western thumb area of the state? Okay B Redwood Falls. Okay, Southwest Minnesota or C Albert Lea not Albert, Lea Beardsley you're absolutely right Beardsley and it's up the same order that Tower holds cold temperature records historically Beardsley holds over 40 of our daily high temperature records, including our state record of 114 degrees. So pretty hot place. Would you like to come up and pick a prize? Okay, Mark, we're going to have to wrap it up here or what we're going to do is broadcast this program at 9 tonight. So if you want to hear yourself on the radio will put it on at 9 Center. Cary is still speaking. We expect you'll be wrapping up shortly and then we'll have our district attorney's on Amy Klobuchar. Susan Gardner will be up here. But hey, thanks for coming by make sure again that you enter the drawing here for the basketball give yourself a chance to win that take a look at the other things and and do think so. Thank you for coming by Mark Seeley. Thank you very much for stopping by today. Thank you Mark seelig University of Minnesota meteorologist climatologist. Every Friday morning. You can hear him a Morning Edition and fortunately comes by midday as well. So we're going to break here and and then As soon as the senator is done, we'll get started with our conversation with the District Attorney's. Thanks a lot.