(00:00:11) Good morning, and welcome to midday on Minnesota Public Radio. I'm Gary eichten glad you could join us Vladimir Putin was back at work today as Russia's acting president meeting with advisors in the like but with one notable difference. Mr. Putin is now Russia's new president-elect Putin won a majority of the vote in yesterday's presidential election. Thus avoiding a runoff against the leader of Russia's Communist Party. He will officially take office in early May today on. Midday. We're going to take a closer. Look at Vladimir Putin who he is and what he might try to accomplish his Russia's president, but first of all here with a report from Moscow as national public radio's Michelle Cullman in what was an otherwise dull campaign. There were a few moments of suspense as the ballots were counted at one point. It looked as if Communist party leader Gennady zyuganov would push Putin to a runoff, but by this morning, it was clear Putin one a decisive Victory with more than 52 percent of the votes cast zyuganov came in. With less than 30% grigory yavlinsky a liberal lawmaker was in a distant third Putin of 47 year old former. KGB agent is a man used to working behind the scenes forced into the Limelight only last August when he was named prime minister. This was his first run for public office and he made clear he finds the whole thing unpleasant you go to the Screwed Up soluta Nobis Louis need you. It's a dishonest business Putin said of political campaigns. You constantly have to make more promises than your opponent's Putin had it easier than most though and a fast rise to power last year as then president Boris. Yeltsin was hiring and firing prime minister's the Kremlin was under siege corruption allegations were threatening to topple yeltsin's Inner Circle. The Kremlin needed someone loyal and Yeltsin finally settled on Vladimir Putin than the head of the counterintelligence service with his ruthless campaign against chechnya Putin saw his rating Skyrocket Yeltsin gave him an extra boost. My quitting New Year's Eve and naming Putin acting president while Putin campaigned with promises to distance himself from yeltsin's cronies and crack down on corruption Kremlin Watchers like Moscow Carnegie Center analyst Lilia shevtsova find it hard to (00:02:24) believe Putin is hostage of (00:02:27) the regime that he inherited from (00:02:29) Yeltsin from the regime were deleted standing above The Fray and Israel. I not upon the institutions because institutions are weak, but he's relying upon loyal and faithful people and when you are relying upon loyal and faithful people, even if they are sincere (00:02:49) Democrats and liberals at the beginning in the end, you're becoming their hostage put in has made clear. He supports the strong presidential system put in place by Yeltsin chips over is among those who fear abuses of power. He demonstrates his desire his longing for a pocket Parliament for the pocket multi-party system. Tim for a pocket Society can and let's absolutely formidable and Pie water rules of the liberal democracy. He doesn't understand what system of checks and (00:03:20) balances is he doesn't (00:03:22) understand why we need free press and why do we (00:03:24) need competitive (00:03:26) elections chefs over describes the current political system as an elected monarchy voters though do have a lot of hopes riding on Putin 75 year old Andre Savannah of cast his ballot for Putin like many voters fed up with the corruption and Chaos of the Yeltsin era. He was impressed by Putin's campaign, especially when Putin flew a fighter jet to (00:03:49) chechnya them that this Union between the Melody. (00:03:53) I think we rush it particularly young people need a hero's of on of said even if it's a small hero we'd forgotten about all that and when Putin flew the plane and actually took over the controls for a while. He said that was really great. Edgewise it's clear Putin is a break from the Yeltsin era. He's in control and has shown himself to be a pragmatic and cautious person unlike the Bold unpredictable Yeltsin and Putin did receive a strong mandate from voters in yesterday's poll. But whether it's strong enough to allow him to be a truly independent figure remains unclear at this point everyone from his liberal supporters to his communist ones to his financial backers think Putin will be there man. He meantime remains evasive Putin is not due to be inaugurated until May 5th and probably won't announce his new government until then Michelle. Kelemen NPR news Moscow. Well joining us now here in the studio to talk some more about Vladimir Putin who he is and what he might be trying to accomplish is Russian expert Nick Hayes. Who is the chair of Hamelin University's history Department in st. Paul and as always we invite you to join our conversation if you've got a question or comment about the Central election in Russia. Give us a call here at 6512276006512276 Thousand outside the Twin Cities 1-800 to for 228286512276 thousand or one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight Nick. Thanks for coming in today. Always a pleasure game not exactly suspense-filled election. (00:05:31) No, it was hardly a cliffhanger. Although it actually did turn out to be a little more disorderly than the Kremlin had anticipated this whole process really was much more like a succession of power than a real election. And in the end in kind of a typical Russian fashion, it wasn't quite as orderly as the Kremlin and hope to orchestrate Putin had really two issues out there that he was afraid of not that he would ever lose but he was afraid number one according to the Russian electoral law. He might have been forced into a runoff if he had not won 50 percent of the vote. And that was what really was at issue in actually forced it rather late into the night early into the morning. But 11 o'clock our time actually last night where he finally pushed it over 50% and avoided the runoff and the second thing is there's always the anxiety especially in this one where it seemed like a foregone conclusion that according to the Russian electoral law, if 50 percent of the registered voting population does not vote the elections declared invalid. So this case 67 67 percent of the population turned out to vote that's below the 1996 election, but still a respectable turnout and he pulled it off (00:06:37) now, I understand the Communist candidate zyuganov was crying foul after the results were announced suggesting that he actually got a lot more votes than then he was given credit for T suppose anybody's paying any attention to his complaints. (00:06:52) Oh, I assume there's widespread cynicism in regard to the mechanics of the election voter counts of voter turnouts, and I was thinking the way the election went as a gun off may have a case in point here because ironically the campaign if you could call it a campaign by Putin Didn't concentrate again for our listeners. This is the communist leader Gennady zyuganov didn't concentrate as they had a 1996 on the Communist threat. They assumed that that was waning as we've gone off was further down in the official polls than he actually turned out to be in the real election. They actually concentrated on the liberal yavlinsky in most of their advertising and campaigning. What happened is remember Russia has 11 time zones in the far east across Siberia is a gonif did much much stronger. Then the Kremlin had anticipated that kind of spoiled the evening for the Putin folks and who knows maybe could have forced as you 11 time zones later again to the friendly like zone of st. Petersburg where Putin won by a landslide could have picked up some electoral tactics from old mayor Richard Daley of Chicago for all I know (00:07:57) right now. He did Putin did a void the runoff but he didn't win by as large a margin as some people had suggested does (00:08:07) that you know, as I said this Something of a secession but it wasn't a coronation it and other interesting things that happen Putin's popularity fell by about 15 16 points in the last month in February. He was running very very high last month. It's done about 15 16 percent according to the last polls are the Chechen war was getting a bit more dicey. There were some negative publicity surrounding the Chechen campaign some corruption charges the economic news. Wasn't that good over the last week, so he had reason to be apprehensive and I think it actually forced them to campaign a little harder last week Puttin as Michelle Kellerman's report just made very clear had something of the Russian equivalent of a Rose Garden campaign. He kind of pretended like he's above campaigning but keep in mind. This is the same guy that flew I remind you flew a Soviet jet down a fighter jet down to the Chechen Battlegrounds in the week before the election, but coming into it. It's suddenly as if the Ellen started playing Hardball a little more aggressively on the hard side. They very definitely zeroed in on the liberal leader. You have lynskey. There was a TV campaign that portrayed him as the well as either being gay or the pawn of the gay movement in Russia as being somehow in League with Jewish zionists and somehow being in the pocket of the western capitalist. You have lynskey again, the liberal actually had trouble getting his commercials on television. Most of them were blocked by state television, even independent television was reluctant to show them you have lynskey ended up in a court case because he had given a talk on a military base which supposedly is a violation of law. The heart of the matter is they suddenly got tougher at the same time in the week before the election Putin announced a pay increase for all public employees of a hundred and twenty percent. He announced a bonus for all veterans of World War Two not much of a bonus a straight payment of three dollars and fifty cents, by the way. He announced 25,000 new housing. For Military Officers in short he went on something of both a get tough campaign against his perceived rival, but also kind of a charm campaign for his real constituents. (00:10:19) Nick Hayes is with us. He's come by today to talk about the election the presidential election in Russia yesterday Vladimir Putin. The acting president has now moved into the category of president-elect. He won a majority of the votes yesterday, and thus will be officially sworn in as the next president of Russia on May 5th. Nick has come by to talk about mr. Putin and what we might expect in the way of Putin policies in Russia, and if you'd like to join our conversation, give us a call here, six five, one two, two seven six thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities 1-800 to for 228286512276 thousand or 1-800 to for to to 828 now, I would think since Vladimir Served as prime minister for six months more or less and has been acting president since New Year's Eve. We would all have a good fix on who he is and what he wants to accomplish but not so he's (00:11:20) deliberately left us hanging on that. He in fact he said about 10 days ago asked what he would do. He said I'm not going to tell you we may have trouble with our candidates, but I don't think they would quite get away with it answer like that. The strongest thing that Putin has represented overwhelmingly obviously has been military policy in the Crackdown in chechnya. And let's make this very clear what this is all about. The real audience here is not chechnya. Although they are part of the audience. The real audience is to show those who would come to doubt that the state could exert power and military strength again. It's both for those people at home. And those people have broad to show that Russia has somehow come back as a military power and will operate entirely in its own interest and unequivocally not Apologize to the West for that purpose. The second is is wonderful and constant theme which is of course a contradiction. It's oxymoronic, but he tells us he's for a dictatorship of law in the heart of the matter though. What he's getting at is a very real sense that the 1990s witness the utter breakdown of Law and Order and Civil Society in Russia local government for all practical purposes has ceased to exist State Services have ceased to exist. The government is hopelessly irreparably corrupt. There is an obvious conclusion of politics and criminal characters. So he has appealed at least this sentiment of the need for a stronger hand both to bring Russia's enemies in line. But also to give the population a sense that he can restore a certain law in order and dignity to their way of life again, other than that the truth is is economic policies. There's not really much there that he said cultural policies he comes off by the way is a very intelligent man very well. Just in the Arts. He likes to hobnob with writers and artists, but he doesn't show any great sensitivity. For example to the Press. He's tightened the controls on the Press over the last two to three weeks nor does he show any great, you know sensitivity to other basic Democratic issues in the society. Hmm. (00:13:26) He does say though. All he is a Democrat (00:13:29) is everybody's a democrat in this sense in a vague sense. He's a Democrat that he number one does not believe the Communist Party can be restored. He does not Advocate and let's make this clear even though he's from a KGB background. We are not talking about the restoration of some kind of totalitarian Colossus. He has in mind a combination of a strong presidential executive State based in Moscow with some sort of reasonable electoral process. He doesn't have in mind the idea of checks and balances the parliament becomes more and more an advisory committee. The judicial system does not really have judicial. View or it certainly doesn't some principles but it really could never enforce a contrary decision against the presidency if it wanted to it's better to say what he has in mind is in orderly autocratic law-abiding state (00:14:23) but nevolin dictatorship (00:14:25) the old Russian phrase for this is dictatorship of the heart. It's one that Putin is used. Also it comes from a Russian minister in the nineteen, excusing 1870s early 1880s and Ice that definitely is kind of the image. He's appealing to you know, the strong but somehow the 9 Russian autocrat (00:14:46) now apparently President Clinton called. Oh, mr. Putin this morning to congratulate him on his victory and urged him to strengthen democracy and international (00:14:56) ties pick up the front page of the New York Times this morning this I found to be rather amazing that three months ago. The political argument was who lost Russia suddenly there seems to be a And coming out of Washington and I couldn't help but know that notice that Tony Blair from London and the Germans kind of came in tow as well Madeleine Albright saying that Putin is a man we can work with ironically repeating the line that Margaret Thatcher once used when she first met Gorbachev there seemed to be coming out of Washington a strong emphasis today that Putin really is a pragmatic reasonable stable leader that has improved. In fact, he has a little bit he's reopened ties to Nato. He's reopen ties to the organization security and cooperation in Europe that there are grounds that the United States can now at least get let us say get back to the pre Kosovo level. Hmm. We are not going to interfere in chechnya. They have more or less accepted our policies in the Bolton's and that Clinton I think has his own electoral agenda on mine too kind of project that things are really back on track with Moscow. (00:16:04) Nick Hayes is with us. He teaches history and Hamline University is the chair of the Two departments a matter of fact also Russian expert and he's joined us today to talk about the Electoral victory of Vladimir Putin yesterday. Mr. Putin was elected president of Russia. He will officially be sworn in May 5th in the meanwhile. He will stay on as acting president position that he's held since New Year's Eve lots of questions about who Vladimir Putin is and what he stands for and if you have one of those questions, give us a call here, six five one two, two seven six thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities. You can reach us toll free at 1-888-438-6557 and one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight Pat go ahead place. I wanted to just make a remark about the fact that (00:16:55) people who seem in this country to be against Vladimir Putin (00:16:59) for the reason that he was the head of the KGB. Well, so what I say President Bush was head of the CIA. I think that's a rather childish attack against him and that's all I have to say. (00:17:15) Well, first of all, he wasn't head of the KGB he worked in the KGB throughout most of his career and it's a mixed Legacy in terms of Putin. I mean, but we have to say quite directly. I personally don't think it's really helpful to compare the KGB and CIA and we must keep in mind. The KGB is hardly ever been a training school for Democrats. I mean, this is not its normal role. Mr. Putin's role was supposedly as an economic and analyst of East Germany that is during its communist days. Well, let's be realistic here East Germany was hardly a place that one devoted a lot of economic intelligence to he clearly was engaged in intelligence monitoring of westerners and contacts and so forth on the other hand on the more positive side of his background. He was the Protege in the city of st. Petersburg of a man. I believe Gary I hate to date us here, but at the height of the turmoil in Russia about 1991, I predicted was really the most bright promising. Peter for Russia's future Anatoly sobchak the liberal mayor who changed the name from Leningrad to st. Petersburg and was regarded as one of the shining stars of Russian liberalism subtract. Unfortunately suffered a few pitfalls in his career and died actually in the last few months, but it is difficult to believe that some chalk would have promoted Putin's young career if he thought of him as being you know a hinge m'n a real KGB stooge type. I mean obviously respected him for something other than merely his intelligence background. Hmm (00:18:49) Sandy your question, please. Yes, thank you for taking my call. I'm a cold war baby boomer and fairly terrified of all things Russian and every time I hear putkin I end up thinking about Stalin either comparisons there had it has Russia ever recovered from Stalin in some sense. Could you elaborate on (00:19:14) those? For me, thank you. Well really that is the great tragic question of 20th century Russian history has Russia ever recovered from the long nightmare of Joseph Stalin's rule from whatever you dated 1928 and 1952 answer is no as Germany ever really recovered from Hitler's regime answers also know as Russia come to ever candidly adjust the nature and full extent of the crimes of the Stalin era know this remains perhaps one of the problems because today there is a tremendous missed all Jew for the years of Stalin's time, especially for his military achievements in World War II for making Russia into a superpower. There. Is this great Groundswell of feeling that this kind of strong authoritarian authoritarian power both brought us a better way of life and finally gave Russia dignity and respect abroad. Unfortunately. It is really only an intellectual movement the liberal Intelligentsia that are aware of the greater greater tragedies. That lay behind Stalin and ice but let us then the problem of dealing with Putin and I betray this as well. Obviously, I'm nervous about his KGB background, but the reality is just as you cannot see a Nazi behind every German, please do not see Stalin behind every Russian Putin clearly is a man of a different ilk and above all else. There is no movement to go back to that nightmarish communism or to tollett arianism. I like to use one of them are effective phrases of Putin that I think virtually all of my Russian friends would agree with he said in regard to the former Soviet Union not Russia the former whole empire. He said that those who do not view with a sense of tragedy and loss the former Soviet Union have no heart those who think the Soviet Union could be restored. Don't have a brain. (00:21:07) Let's assume though Nick that in his heart of hearts. Mr. Putin really would like to be a new Stalin type character to it. Is it possible to (00:21:17) do anything? Well, let's get the Russian some real credit here over the last decade and a half. We've seen one of the most triumphal movements of political transformation of the 20th century. It has been terribly imperfect. No one denies that but let us remember that the Soviet Union legally and with relatively little violence dissolved itself. It was however, you know many bumps. We watched in a mazing story of an orderly transition of a country from a totalitarian nightmare into granted in imperfect but better Society the miracle is there hasn't been a military takeover. The miracle is there has not been a civil war. So for the most part the infrastructure of basic senses of Human Rights and dignity it is Not as good as it could be but it is too strong there forever a fall back to that old totalitarian nightmare of the Communist ideology or some new kind of communist fascist Fusion that would bring back the same kind of (00:22:21) tear Scott your question, please yes, there have been some disturbing allegations that the apartment bombings in Moscow were instigated by possibly the KGB as a politically expedient way to instigate the war in chechnya. And I was just wondering how much credibility Nick might have her about (00:22:39) that. It's a very good question. And first of all, it was assumed from the very beginning that the apartment bombings were carried out by Chechen terrorists, the chechens never indicated any responsibility nor has there ever been direct evidence tying a direct Chechen activists to those bombings and what I think the problem is with a different episode. There were at least two other episodes in provincial Russian cities. Supported supposedly thwarted bomb attacks in which there is clear evidence, at least in one that it was a KGB plant. So to wrap things back it is no there's no question that the Kremlin regime seized upon the bombings in Moscow, which everyone would assume in Russian public opinion were the work of chechens whether there was evidence or not to mobilize public opinion for a stronger campaign against the chechens. It never really took a sophisticated investigation or publication of evidence to convince the public that that was the case and if we may think of examples in contemporary World politics and our own politics, I think we can see them fairly evidently. I mean how many times immediately do we when we see a terrorist bombing does the American public automatically assume it's the work of Islamic terrorists, you know, I mean just we pretty much automatically do this put in somebody took advantage of this similar knee-jerk reaction within Russian public opinion. Galvanize his campaign against Church New (00:24:08) given has ties to the security services the fact that he was the head of the security service and then was prime minister when these bombings occurred would he be responsible for them? If in fact the government was somehow (00:24:23) implicated no actually has ties to the security services had been discontinued some time before that and know and by the way, he was in the regional office. He was in st. Petersburg. So he was not in the Central Moscow dirty workz office. (00:24:36) Okay. Nick has is with us. He's come by today to talk about the election of Vladimir Putin as Russia's new president. Of course, he's been the acting president since New Year's Eve, but won yesterday's election. There won't be a runoff. He'll be sworn in May 5th. The question now is just who is this man? And what might he try to accomplish as Russia's president. If you'd like to join our conversation, give us a call here, six five one two, two seven six thousand 6512276 thousand outside the cities you can reach us toll free at 1-888-438-6557 or 1-800 to for to to 828 get this more callers in just a couple minutes programming on NPR is supported by the it doctors as incorp company offering IT project management and project management training on the web at I TD doctors.com with this weekend's elections. Russia is poised to begin a whole new chapter as an emerging (00:25:36) democracy. Will the new Russian president's agenda be topped by reform economic stability or military action. And chechnya. I'm Juan (00:25:43) Williams join us to discuss the Russian political landscape and what may lie ahead for Russia's relations (00:25:48) with the United States on the next Talk of the Nation from NPR news. (00:25:59) Talk of the Nation begins at 1 o'clock this afternoon so our conversation about Russia will continue at one will get back to our conversation with Nick Hayes this our about Russia right after some news headlines. Here's got a Cunningham Greta. Good morning, Gary and thanks the Florida jury in a landmark class action suit against tobacco companies is here in closing arguments Tobacco. Company officials are said to be worried about a blockbuster award in the trial each side will have two days to make closing statements before the case goes to the jury dozens of people are gathering outside the Miami home where Elian Gonzalez has been staying a Cuban Exile group has called for people to form a human chain around the Little Havana House of aliens. Great uncle to protest government efforts to send the boy back to Cuba. The six-year-old is at home today instead of in school. No explanation has been given his Miami relatives have beat the Justice Department's noon deadline and filed a motion for a quick appeals process. To sort out the international custody fight over him, but it could still be weeks before the case is resolved. The US Supreme Court is deciding against restoring food stamps for legal immigrants who were cut off in a massive 1996 welfare overhaul, the justices have rejected an appeal by Chicago officials and others who argue the law violates, the immigrants equal protection rights in Regional news Administration officials. Say Governor Ventura likely would sign a legislation to strengthen Minnesota sex offenders laws, as long as the bill isn't altered too much the bill includes stricter penalties for the most serious sex offenses and increased accounting of registered offenders Finance commissioner Pam Wheelock told a house committee that the administration's initial concern was that this is a non-budget year. The bill is likely to go to the house floor tomorrow where some changes made on the senate floor might generate some debate if the house approves the bill it would go directly to Ventura for his signature if the house refuses to accept the changes the bill would go to a house-senate conference committee. The forecast for the state of Minnesota today has a wind advisory for Western Minnesota snow showers are likely in the Northeast today with a chance of rain or snow showers elsewhere. It will be windy and cooler Statewide today high temperatures near 38 in the north east to near 50 in the southwest near Worthington at this hour Rochester reports sunshine and 49 degrees. Some light snow is falling in Fargo a temperature of 30 Duluth reports partial sunshine and 36 and in the Twin Cities partly sunny skies a temperature of 46 degrees Gary. That's a check on the latest news. Thanks Greta 25 minutes now before 12 o'clock. This is midday in Minnesota Public Radio. And this hour we're talking with Nick Hayes chair of the Hamline University history Department Russian expert Nick Hayes who's joined us to talk about the presidential election in Russia Vladimir Putin was elected yesterday. He will not have to face a runoff election and will now be sworn in May 5th. What does he stand for? What is he hoping to accomplish as President of Russia? That's our question this Our and if you'd like to join our conversation, give us a call here at 6512276 thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities. You can reach us toll free at 1-888-438-6557. 6,000 or 1-800-222-8477. SLI campaign during his campaign for president. (00:29:19) He officially did not (00:29:21) get paid and there he would not traditionally at least in this country. Not only if you're an office holder, do you hold the office but I mean you have to sell your policies to people could we assume that this guy is not much of a politician. He's not capable of getting out and inspiring people or what should we read into his non-campaign. (00:29:44) Well, what should read into it above? All else is that he relied upon a hunch that the population as a whole which is simply vote for whatever party was in power. And in point of fact what he represents you could call it a state party and that was his hunch. And he was did a cure for the most part Russians voted simply for the party in power and the state apparatus. The second thing is his whole Camp residents was carefully imaged and packaged from the very beginning. You saw his immediately began to appear in chechnya. He's the lead of the Russian television news every night. He misses no opportunity to pin medals on soldiers and Military. This is one of his favorite Pursuits. We even get shot. He's a judo expert I do not know why but the last three Russian leaders have all been in the martial arts. And so she will have this kind of complete packaging of the man and in terms of whatever interviews he could give or occasional press conferences. It's quite clear while he's not a politician. He certainly is a reasonably articulate and bright man. And so in controlled environments, he comes across has reasoned intelligent. It's very easy to do especially when you don't have to answer contrary questions. So the heart of the matter is it really was a perfect example of State packaging and the people bought it (00:31:07) if if well, is there any circumstance under which he might be faced with a with a necessity of getting Out Among the people and trying to convince them to do (00:31:17) something. Oh certainly, there's one could conceive of basically I at the immediate Forefront two types of issues that would force him to take a different strategy. The Chechen War could unravel very quickly if that in public opinion appears to be coming more divided there's more issues of negative coverage surfacing here and there it's quite possible. That is more Russian casualties Mount as a situation now becomes more ambiguous that he will face increasing problems over that policy, especially if it spreads into other Caucasus regions, the second is theirs Is the fear that after the Russian economic disaster of August 98 the second shoe was ready to fall. There's always been kind of an apprehension that all the Russian economy is actually performed reasonably. Well over the last year that there could be another major economic crunch in which case he would seize serious labor disturbances more Regional Strife more fighting over Regional control of the resources, and he would have to take a much more proactive public opinion campaign and become much more the man on the street as Yeltsin actually in his prime was fairly effective, you know, shaking people's hands on the street box pop types interviews putting would have to move into that kind of mode (00:32:38) and he would not be in a position to Simply say look all along with me or I'll send you to the (00:32:41) gulag. No, he would not be what he would not have that as his option. He was sure hasn't have Devas his option closing hostile press organizations harassing political opponents even by More or less legal means not to speak of the whole office of dirty tricks that could enroll via the police and security apparatus in the military. The military is already been alleged to be involved in the Abduction of a journalist in chechnya. For example, there could be a whole series of rather unpleasant under the table tactics that he could deploy if you want it (00:33:16) Richard your question for nikkei's Place. Well, I wanted to suggest one thing about Putin and his concern about him being a kbg operative is a was the reality is is Gorbachev obviously came out of that same organization everybody forgets he was at the top of it and the 83 period under and drop off and very possibly with this man represents is finally stopping this line of succession of literally infirmed old man, which has been a major issue ins with the Soviets. (00:33:44) Well, actually I Mikhail Gorbachev did not come out of the KGB. He came out of Law and economic management, but I Yuri under Bob who well, technically not the immediate predecessor to Gorbachev came in 1982 was and this is a Perfect Analogy. You're in drove off had. In fact been the head of the KGB for some 17 years much higher up and much more influential in that police system. Then Putin ever dreamed of being what was interesting in 1982. And that is a perfect comparison Yuri andropov was an aging frail man. Suddenly had an immediate positive press in Russia again. It's much like Putin's image. And by the way, Putin has indicated he admires on drop off a great deal of being kind of an autocrat with a heart of fighting Corruption of bringing more Law and Order and drop of also was capable of creating the similar kind of favorable image in American public opinion is being someone who liked Miles Davis and was out with intellectuals part of the on drop-off Legacy, by the way was he claimed to be Or the rumors Russian intellectuals spread to the press and American intellectuals was that on drop-off really was a closet liberal in the KGB all of those 17 years. He had just kind of been there to see that the KGB at least had somebody to control them and there is I'm not the first one to make this comparison a number of Russian journalist have made the same comparison to Putin that he has kind of that same image. (00:35:16) If you have a question for Nick Haines, by the way, we don't have a lot of time left but like to get your question on we're talking this our about the election of Vladimir Putin as Russia's new president, you will be officially sworn in May 5th. He won yesterday's election without cheats have to move on to run off. He got a majority of votes. Although didn't win by as much as some people had expected that he might if you've got a question for Nick give us a call here at 6512276 Thousand or one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight great opportunity learn a little bit more about the man who will be leading Russia for was (00:35:53) For secure term, I believe it's a four-year term. Actually. I have to check that. Although I think he wants to (00:35:58) 2009 now. He had suggested it be moved up to seven (00:36:02) years. Yeah, there is I'm sorry. I'm not up on that. I double it double check. There is a proposal to change the limits of the terms and the electoral process (00:36:10) now should we read something into that that he wants to be like president for (00:36:13) life. Well, you should definitely read into it that he wants to consolidate and this really is partially yeltsin's Legacy a presidential regime with longer terms, you know you even if you put two in it 17 that's pretty good life of in power. So be president for life. Well, he preps could be for easily enough but know that I wouldn't necessarily say that but the key factor is presidential regime an executive based system. Bob your question, please (00:36:42) yes, as you know, Nick Russia has approximately 6,000 long-range nuclear weapons many of them on hair-trigger alert and aimed at the United States as you also know. The Russian Parliament has failed to ratify the start to treaty which was cut that Arsenal and a half. My question is well President Putin be successful in getting the parliament to ratify the start treaty reduce the Russian nuclear Arsenal by some 3,000 if your heads if the United States proceeds to deploy a national missile defense system is currently proposed by both Republicans and Democrats and by so doing undercut the 1972 ABM Treaty. (00:37:23) Yes, let me answer Bob's question and a quick context for our listeners ever since NATO expanded. He's word combined with our failure to support the comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and now our proposal to move ahead with an anti-missile defense system in violation of the 1972 ABM Treaty. There has been no prayer in Russian politics that at any point would we see? Lee what we'd hope to see in the final round of the start negotiations the reduction and elimination of those Russian missiles that simply was not going to occur that is the one card they held to try to remind us that they were a nuclear superpower and if we continue to move in this unilateral direction that they perceive to be hostile to them they would not cooperate on arms reduction. It is a small consolation but some consolation that they have now indicated. Well, they could consider a revision of the ABM Treaty to find maybe some face-saving way of accepting the inevitability that the United States is probably going to go ahead with the missile defense system. Anyway, my guess is this will then be combined with some limited acceptance of the start process the reduction of obsolete missiles probably in favor of a more modernized smaller more locally active, Miss. Nuclear force more on the analogy of say The British or French than the old superpower analogy. So I do think the Legacy here is extremely dangerous for as we move into the Next Generation that Russia is no longer moving in the direction that we had seen. So positively from the late 80s towards the major reductions with the idea that this would be reciprocated by the United (00:39:19) States. Now Putin indicated that he might even be open to a joining NATO though. It's uh, you know, well that just for for show or did he (00:39:29) not quite joining what he actually proposed is that he was willing to open up contacts again. Now, let's remember when NATO was reopened up in the summer of 97 and advanced Eastward. We created something called the Atlantic Council by which Russia would have some kind of advisory capacity and this appears to be what Putin is proposing that we go back to these kind of discussions that Russia have a consultant. Roll, but all and that is what he indicated to Madeleine Albright. That is what he indicated to Tony Blair. But at the same time he indicated that he was inconceivable to him that we would ever really be partners in NATO as such now, let me actually looking at the things he said about foreign policy if our listeners really want to focus on that just for a second in his last press conference. He said I'm trying to quote him directly said it was time for serious changes. He also called for I'm quoting him directly more realistic policies, but he spoke overwhelmingly about the Russians abroad that means Russians the 25 million or so Russians that live within the former Soviet Union, but not Russia itself, and he spoke about the former Soviet republics the newly independent states. This would indicate to me and it follows logically from chechnya that his priority is quite clear that he is going to have a tougher hand from Moscow in the dealings with the former republics of the Soviet Union as his (00:40:51) priority. Hmm and China kids thank you for mentioning that they also indicated cozy up to them to serve as a kind of Checkmate against the (00:40:59) West he indicated he would accept the offer to visit Beijing that will be his first. I'm not sure if it's his first but in the very near future he indicated he planned to visit Beijing Chris your question, please. (00:41:10) Oh, I just had a question about the mafia and it seeming that Nightline did quite a bit of stories about how the corruption is so widespread in Russia, and it seems to hurt the country so much. Will he try to reform this Kenny try to reform this. I mean he is a seems to be a new strong leader. Will he try to rein this in (00:41:30) he has indicated publicly and he has some credibility in public opinion that he will deal with corruption. He'll deal with organized crime last week. He indicated he was bringing in a bunch of his old buddies from the KGB that would be knowledgeable and forthright and capable of doing that kind of operation. He indicated by these are retirees from the KGB not actively in there to argue. Are still let's say not part of the corrupt system and therefore they could clean it up. The reality is that the KGB is part of the Hydra of political corruption and organized crime that has taken hold of this entire country. It is not an agent that could reform it. Secondly there is no real evidence from anything Putin has done that he would move against the system that is created crony capitalism of these so-called oligarchs and corrupt ministers. He might symbolically prosecute one or two, but this system is in fact responsible for his present political fortunes and it's totally unlikely that he would try to Crackdown (00:42:35) against it who are these I mean not specifically names but who are they? What are they? Is there anything comparable in our country to who they would be or how that would work? (00:42:45) Oh, I'm sure we could find some analogies, but I would have to scratch my head and probably roll back to the 19th century for a while what they are. Are those who profited by some inside connection beginning action the late 80s, but really about 1992-93 when the state privatized its assets when the Russia privatized the tremendous Holdings of assets. Some of it could just be Communist Party funds. It's a system of collusion by which they had access to this enormous Capital these enormous resources as they became privatized and as such they were able to build overnight fantastic Empires. Now the two things to remember about this our number one, it had to have been done by collusion with leading political figures. If they were part of the problem number 2, there is never been a significant sign that these the called the oligarchs actually have moved towards real Market reforms. They move towards this kind of state capitalist system the best evidence for this is most of them keep their primary Capital Holdings outside of Russia. Offshore Banks or foreign Banks. (00:43:54) Hmm. So let's say I'm back in the old days there if I knew the right people I could have gotten like the whole Soviet tractor franchise and now it would be mine. But (00:44:06) and you might be visiting Minnesota to sell it. It's probably been the most outrageous example of insider trading that one could think about in 20th century history and let us remember this is the heart of the matter when you deal about a the economy in Russia, Russia is not a poor country. It's actually a rich country. You're talking about enormous assets that it's problem has always been political Miss Administration combined with corruption. And when you had this system, can you imagine yourself? I mean at the moment there's going to be a selling off of State assets. And if you had the inside track to these kind of activities. Well, the the opportunities were enormous and believe me. They took advantage of them (00:44:49) Bob your question, please yes, I didn't get in on the beginning, but I'm assuming No one has asked about the potential relation between Putin and and the what they call it. They call a near abroad the white Russia the Ukraine Central Asia. I had a few questions just pick one because we're okay time about is he going to absorb stalinist white Russia? Is he going to help Ukraine Moldavia become other than basket cases and we'll Central Asian and Azaria oil move East to China or west to Turkey. How's (00:45:17) that? I'll try to answer that very quickly because they're absolutely Central questions and perhaps I didn't make this clear when I indicated that is what he indicated last week was his main foreign policy agenda that is dealing with the former republics of the Soviet Union these new nations Belarus her white Russia, Ukraine and so forth. He will move very aggressively towards there already exists a re Confederation and plan for the reconfiguration of Belarus and Russia. He will tighten economic controls and political controls over the Ukraine and he'll demand that the Black Sea Fleet the Crimea and rushes Lechery assets be renegotiated with Ukraine there and frankly the third question and this may explain the involvement in chechnya. I do not care what Chevron or American multinational corporations in the oil industry are saying there is not going to be an effective pipeline that goes from the Caspian through the caucuses down through Eastern Turkey to the Mediterranean as is proposed. There might be one but it'll be so unstable. I wouldn't put any money behind it that is part of the extreme politics going on that Russia will insist somehow that it have a hand in the exploitation and the movement towards Market of these enormously Rich oil and petroleum assets that are in the Caspian area in even further into Central (00:46:35) Asia. Very briefly neck President Clinton called you up this afternoon says Professor Hayes. We'd like to make sure that that this all works out the way it's supposed to and we don't want to get in a fight with the Russians anymore. We want to have good relations. What should we do here (00:46:51) call for a New conference on assessing the problem of Yugoslavia the former Yugoslavia to look at a long-term solution towards restructuring the borders of the states and the successor states that came out of Yugoslavia and call upon that is a new partnership by which Russia and the European nations and the United States can set up a framework and a model for how to deal with future border and ethnic tensions in Europe as a whole. (00:47:22) Well, thanks for coming in today. Nick preciate it always a pleasure Gary. I'm sure you'll be back next Crisis in Russia. (00:47:30) What do I do if they stabilized (00:47:33) then we'll have something in Yugoslavia or someplace. Thanks a lot. Nick Hayes. Who is the chair of the history department at Hamline University in Saint Paul joining us this hour to talk about the election Now official of Vladimir Putin as Russia's next president. He will be officially sworn in May 5th, by the way a reminder that The nation National Public radio's talk the nation program will continue this conversation about Russia and that starts at 1 o'clock this afternoon in between over the noon hour. Today. We're going to talk Oscars. Stephanie. Curtis will be in the movie Maven to pick through the results of last night's Oscar awards. And of course, our phone lines will be (00:48:12) open this musical interlude brought to you by Morning Edition (00:48:40) weekdays from 529, but Bob had fallen asleep at the switch there 5 minutes now before 12 o'clock.