(00:00:24) Good morning, and welcome to midday on Minnesota Public Radio. I'm Gary eichten glad you could join us while next month after months of campaigning. The campaign will actually begin candidates for president, of course have been out and about for months. Now, they've been holding debates running ads several candidates have actually dropped out but within the next month the campaign for president officially begins with the caucuses in Iowa and the primary New Hampshire Minnesota voters. Meanwhile, we'll have lots of decisions to make next year Beyond who they support for president. They'll be trying to decide who they want to represent them in the US Senate in the house the legislature then of course, there's the Reform Party Saga which you heard about in the news cast just moments ago. The party seems to be on the verge of imploding. Well joining us this hour to talk about these political developments. Look ahead to the 2000 elections is Chris Gilbert chair of the political science department at Gustavus Adolphus College in st. Her as always we invite you to join our conversation. We're talking political developments this hour and if you have a question or a comment about the races for president Senate Congress legislature in the like give us a call here, six five one two, two seven six thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities 1-800 to for 228286512276 thousand or one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight Chris. Thanks for coming in today. (00:01:51) Good morning. Gary good to be with you (00:01:53) before we get into the mm business. I did want to take a couple of minutes here to look back at the big political story of 1999 and what at one point look like. It could be a huge story namely the impeachment of President Clinton to the vote to convict or not to convict that seems like a long time ago and it seems like to have have virtually no impact (00:02:18) whatsoever. No, it really seems like that the nation that the nation's leaders have really left. That behind a I think that most voters have a lingering sense of how they felt about President Clinton and how they felt about what most people concluded was was mainly the political considerations around the impeachment trial in the Senate but we really did move beyond that. It was not a particularly productive year for the US Congress or for President Clinton, but neither seem to put a lot of really important things on the table, either the nation economically speaking isn't as good shape as it's been in quite a long time. We running an actual budget surplus and almost a surplus even if you count all the trust fund monies and I think that people were quite happy to leave that behind the Clinton story in the eyes of the public seems to have ran its course and about mid-1998 and yet we were left with that long drawn-out conclusion, even though the outcome seemed quite certain for quite some time. So I it's not surprising especially as so many people jumped into the presidential race, which of course started as you noted even earlier than in the past that we really left Bill Clinton behind him. An issue particularly as Republicans start to focus their attacks and especially of Vice President Gore emerges as the Democratic nominee. So Bill Clinton will be out there. But it maybe it's good for the nation that we moved on past it. (00:03:36) Is there any I mean, he does have a hole here left in office. Is there any reason to believe that he will be able to accomplish anything in 2000? (00:03:44) No, I don't think so. It's been very difficult in 1999 not so much because he was personally wounded by the impeachment Affair obviously his approval rating in the eyes of the public has remained quite strong historically extremely strong for a president in the second term at this point late in the second term, but the president doesn't seem to have a lot of major initiatives as was been the case since the health care debate failure of 1994. He is generally organized his presidency around at least on the domestic front relatively minor things. I think the place where Clinton sees he can leave a mark in history, which does seem to be something the preoccupied. Tim is in the Middle East. He's been very effective at bringing people together. Once again, we see a set of peace talks starting Israel and Syria, which seemed perhaps a decade away from being able to sit down and talk are all of a sudden sitting down and talking that's going to take a long time. I think to lead to something productive in that region. But you know, in terms of foreign policy, this has not been a bad presidency there doesn't seem to be much of an overall overarching strategic mindset. But the Republicans haven't put together much of an overarching strategic mindset either since the end of the Cold War and the Clinton Administration has managed most of the crises reasonably. Well even coming out of the Kosovo of fair relatively unscathed and that was certainly a the bombing of Kosovo. I think a really important aspect of 1999 was something that has has gone by the wayside with at least a sense that if we didn't succeed in everything that we wanted that the basic thrust of what the United States and its allies were trying to accomplish was accomplished to move milosevic out to end what Starting to take place in Kosovo in terms of the ethnic cleansing. We don't know where Kosovo is headed. We don't know where the whole region is headed. But but even that which I think caused a lot of trepidation in the white house as to how the American public would react turned out. Okay for Bill Clinton, I think 20 years from now. That's what we'll say. When we look back on Bill Clinton's career despite everything that he did things turned out. Okay, he seems to be as lucky a politician in many respects as anyone who's come along in a long time (00:05:50) Donald Trump apparently in his new book says that Clinton actually was a very good president except for the whole Lewinsky business (00:05:59) the public at the moment would seem to agree Clinton did not accomplish some of the important things on his agenda of going back to 1992 to his campaign Healthcare in particular is something that where the issues facing the marketplace are as pressing. If not more pressing than they were eight years ago on the other hand Clinton came in promising to rein in the federal deficit and while we tend to over As presidents for not managing the economy very well. There has to be some credit given for the fact that the economy has done. So well the deficit is essentially been eliminated not just by economic growth, which I think is the conclusion many people tend to reach but also by the fact that Republicans and Democrats together something we don't talk about enough managed to rein in domestic discretionary spending to such an extent that the revenue was finally able to match up with the spending and we're running surpluses which is something eight years ago. I would not have predicted would have been an outcome of the Clinton presidency. So there are a lot of things to be successful on the personal failures are are something that that is going to weigh heavily in any historical ranking of Clinton with presidents their inexcusable on a whole variety of fronts, but all things considered the nation is probably in better shape than it was eight years ago some problems put off campaign Finance for example, but they might have been put off anyway regardless of who was in The White House. (00:07:19) Okay. So that was the big story of 99 before we look ahead. We get into the 2000 election preview have to ask you about today's development this business with the Reform Party. The judge said that he wasn't going to get involved in where the Reform Party has as its convention and then apparently some really nasty words flying back and forth between the parole faction and the Minnesota faction what's going on there? (00:07:48) You know, I have a soft spot in my heart for third parties that makes all of our discussions more interesting I've done research. I've written a book about third parties. I have to say the Reform Party is is well on its way to booting a tremendous opportunity. I think to be a major player in u.s. Politics. I think the chances were remote. Anyway, third parties have a very difficult time maintaining their existence and in the wake of the Ventura victory. There's never been a better chance in recent years for a third party to actually gain a foothold in the National Consciousness. That is be a real alternative in the minds of many voters. The infighting. The Reform Party has always been plagued by The Perot forces being so bound up in what the party does and really being resentful of anyone else stepping in they were happy to take some credit for the Ventura victory though. Obviously the National Party had nothing to do with it. And now we have this in fighting with a rather Byzantine set of rules and and you know, the Minnesota Reform Party with its attitude of you know, if we don't like the outcome we're going to take our ball and go home because we have done more than anybody else to advance the party, you know, there's some truth to that. They have advanced the party in the National Consciousness though in the long run will wonder whether giving the nation Jesse Ventura was a great thing or not. But you know, the party rules are pretty clear and the party rules following their own rules. They they chose Long Beach California. It's not where I would have chosen given what happened here in 1988, but it's a set of people who would like to think that they're above the kind of partisan bickering that they believe makes people look down in the major parties and here they are giving people who really might want to give that third all Third Way a chance. Giving them a whole lot of reason to think well, you know, these folks really aren't particularly different from the Democrats and Republicans. They can't seem to get out of their own way on as basic and issue is where to hold the convention. Why don't they just do it, you know the old-fashioned way like the major parties have an auction and see you know, who can put up the best deal and I don't think the convention will end up in in st. Paul in the long run. It's certainly not something the courts, you know are going to want to step in and decide and the Reform Party the real problem, of course is to find a credible viable candidate for mm. I don't think Donald Trump is it but by default he may not may turn out to be the guy and I think that's not going to be in the reform party's best interest for the long (00:10:03) run. Okay quick overview. Now of the major races next year then I want to get to some callers here presidential race. Let's start at the top is there now again, we haven't had any caucuses. We haven't had any primaries, but Lord knows the campaign's been going on long enough. Is there any real contest? For president or is mostly smoke and mirrors National polls continue to show Al Gore and George W. Bush way ahead of everybody (00:10:33) else. Nobody's voted. I think that's really important to remember what's many people many people of course are paying no attention whatsoever the voters who are paying attention, I think tell the important Story New Hampshire voters New Hampshire voters of course are not representative of the nation as a whole but they're our first our first guess as to what's going to happen. And to be honest. They've seen nothing and George w-- Bush that suggests that he is the obvious candidate. He is 60 million dollars that's remarkable that's going to carry him along way in many respects if he survives this two-month Ruckus in February and March of next year. He's in great shape because he's not he's going to be able to run a campaign. Unlike Senator Dole who ran out of money after getting the nomination in 96 a critical point where the Clinton campaign just swooped in and pretty much put that thing Out Of Reach George w-- Bush is set for the Long Haul. He's raised so much that he'd he's Subject to the limits, but he doesn't look particularly presidential I think is the conclusion that many voters who are paying attention are reaching and that that worries Republican voters because the logical alternative isn't necessarily clear. There's some things to like about John McCain, but there have been some questions raised particularly at higher levels about whether John McCain is fits his temper, which considering what we know about presidents in their tempers is kind of almost silly to think about Bill Clinton has a incredible temper of most people will who know him will say quite readily but there's some questions about McCain and nobody else looks particularly electable. Steve Forbes has been running for a long time and continues to pull 10 to 12 percent at the national level. That's terrible Gary Bauer and Allen Keys have been running for even longer and do even worse. I thought Senator hatch we make a little bit better showing than he's made but he doesn't seem to be making much of an impression. So I think it is a race between McCain and Bush McCain will do quite well in New Hampshire. The question is whether there's any organization to follow up on that he skipped Iowa. He's put a lot of eggs into, South Carolina. But South Carolina tends to pick the nominee here after year and many people who've done well in New Hampshire who sort of gone Against the Grain early have seen their campaigns found a rather quickly South Carolina's a little bit closer to the core of what national Republican voters are about and South Carolina polls still showed George w-- Bush with an incredibly sizable Advantage. So I think there is a chance for John McCain if he does well in New Hampshire the fundraising floodgates are going to open but the whole thing is about, you know, three or four weeks all of a sudden in late February early March very compressed and I think very much favoring the candidate who has enough money to build a large organization, but in the debates George W has been at best. Okay, somebody the previous hour was mentioning him as a gentleman see student back in college and I think he's he's earned a gentleman see in debates. He you know respectful sort of wonderment as to whether or not he really has the has the qualities that are necessary to run an effective campaign for Republicans. It's not just who's our best nominee. It's who has the best chance of knocking the Democrats? Because Republicans should be able to hold on to the US Senate and I think unless a Democrat does really well at the national level. They should be able to hold on to the house as well and all of a sudden all of these long-standing dreams of finally lining up the entire, you know federal government on the Republican side Supreme Court Justices pushing through significance tax reforms significant conservative with a Capital C proposals. They're all out there tantalisingly close and I think I think it is a question as to whether George W is the person to carry the party there (00:13:54) Minnesota here the US Senate race very briefly. How is the Assumption was all the experts said here several months ago. Well incumbent Republican Rod grams is is going to be knocked off. He's vulnerable easily defeated as we come up to the new year. Does it still look that way (00:14:15) speaking of politicians who have been fortunate in their careers grams is never received 50 percent of the vote and he's two for two electrically speaking of Thanks to Dean Berkeley in some respects. But um, I think that grams is vulnerable. I think the Democratic problem is the dfl problem is who's the right person? There are some impressive people out there. I've been impressed with a little hog campaign so far. I'm not sure there's a lot of penetration of David Lola hog and outstate Minnesota and I think that's going to be a problem. Tim penny is the most well known if the people who's likely to be on that dfl ballot. I think he's Well Suited and temperament not necessarily in all issue positions though. I think the social issues are becoming less importance to the dfl, but the dfl has to think who has the best chance of defeating Rod grams in the in the eyes of a strong dfl or anybody would be a better Senator than raw grams at that maybe a little bit unfair to the Senators record. But that's the way dfl is think in the same way that that Republicans would have preferred anyone to Paul wellstone four years ago. So who emerges from that dfl race I think is going to have a good chance that's going to be targeted nationally Gramps has been an effective fundraiser. He goes over well with voters much. Then he goes over with those who cover politics I think for whatever reason Senator Graham's does seem to be able to connect. I don't think the personal difficulties of his son are going to enter into it. It's it seems quite clear that he did nothing particularly untoward. It was more a question of Sheriff's Office Behavior than it was a Senator Graham's Behavior, but I think that's going to be a difficult race. I think any dfl is going to have a chance to unseat him and the national trend is going to be important. If Minnesota as has been the case in recent years ago strongly for the Democratic candidate for president that is certainly going to help people down the line and it's going to help the dfl Senate candidate in particular. It's a good state for DF ehlers. It hasn't been a good State for the dfl in recent years particularly at the governor's level, but I think they see a real opportunity here to make some Headway (00:16:08) Chris Gilbert is our guest this hour Chris is the chair of the political science department at Gustavus Adolphus College in st. Peter and we're kind of looking ahead to the big election year next year. All kinds of interesting races will be on the Minnesota election ballot to starting with president and all. Lay down the ballot and today we thought we would look ahead to what we can expect in some of those races with some of the big issues might be if you'd like to join our conversation. Give us a call here six five. One two, two seven six thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities. You can reach us toll free at 1-888-438-6557 and or 1-800 to for to to 828 a first callers from Minneapolis Kathleen. Good morning. Good morning. I just want to disagree with some of the things that both of you have been talking about. I thought the entire year of the Monica Lewinsky case was totally media-driven. It was total Overkill. I'm really angry with someone like Linda Tripp with her self-righteous moralizing over the whole thing and and breaking this compared to what subject that a lot of people in this country both do both inside and outside of marriage. Is how trivial it was compared to some of the things that just seem to go by the wayside and I mean the continual bombing of Iraq the fact that the sanctions are truly killing Iraqi citizens in a horrendous way the bombing of Yugoslavia when nobody looked at the the horrible and atrocious Rumble. He Accords that Madeleine Albright was trying to bang over the head of Slobodan milosevic in the Yugoslav people as well as the KLA and the appalling for forgiving of what's happening to poor people in this country with welfare rights and Clinton also signed I don't care whether he thought it was it was bad. He should not have signed the welfare. Welfare-to-work bill so your point here being that we're that Clinton has been criticized for the wrong things. Yeah, but the fact that it seems to be outside the radar screen there that the talk you had with Jesse Ventura yesterday and is defensiveness over one of the caller's about what's happening with the homeless and seemingly no one. Well, I'm not saying that no one but very few people brought that up again during the entire hour that I could tell and it's just people are just people need to start thinking outside the box start thinking about things in totally different ways. The fact that the corporation's of this world are plundering the planet for it not just humans the poorest humans on the planet, but for for every living species, we have got to start thinking and totally different ways Chris. Do you imagine that those kinds of issues are going to come up at? All in the election campaigns of mm. Well (00:19:11) one would certainly hope so in a time of almost unparalleled prosperity. It's important to realize that not everyone is benefitting from the economic boom in the same ways in particular the state of Minnesota has faced several choices given these large surpluses to they all quote-unquote go back to the people who are in the money in the first place or or do they get used for what continue to be real and pressing problems? We haven't really faced. I think any extreme difficulties from the welfare reform act because the economy has done so well that many people have have moved off the welfare rolls, but the economy is probably not going to continue to do well, you know forever into the future and and when people have to once again more people have to rely on those systems will have a better test of whether those systems have been reformed in any way that's going to benefit people or whether the reforms are actually misguided as Kathleen suggested us policy in all of these places. I think is worth foreign policy that is is Worth discussing whether or not the sanctions against Iraq are the best way to affect some sort of change its going on nine years now and the effects on the civilians of Iraq seem to be of course far more deleterious than the effects on Saddam Hussein who sits comfortably in power as comfortably as he sat for a long time. I think we have paid attention to those issues the the u.s. Bombing of Iraq e sites receives continual attention and when it when it ratchets up as it has a couple times in 1999, we've paid a significant and close attention what to do in the long run about the former Yugoslavia continues to be a concern to Washington the Accords, which we are as the caller said banging over the head of Slobodan milosevic have primarily been because even he's ignored most of the obligations placed on him because of them we have significant war crimes issues that still need to be addressed down there and the question of whether or not America and its European allies have the same sense of what to do in the long run. What do they want that region to look like is it? If we leave it to the former yugoslavs, it seems clear that that might is going to win out and I think that's not a solution. The West sees is acceptable the Clinton Administration I think is as handicapped as any other presidential Administration would be the Public's appetite for significant foreign policy Adventures is low. We don't like to see people dying in whatever form whether it's through starvation or whether it's through indiscriminate killing and yet we haven't formulated any particular coherent set of principles that says this is when the u.s. Gets involved militarily. This is when the u.s. Works with allies to get involved diplomatically. This is when mirror humanitarian efforts are importance. We haven't sorted those things out in our own mind. I don't know if it's so much thinking outside the box though. I think in foreign policy that would that would be more important but certainly domestically speaking there are a lot of facets of society that people that argue are far from perfect and if this is a time when governments is relatively flush with money, it's not just government spending, but it's asking questions. What can we do to address homelessness? What can we do to address people who remain below the poverty line? Is it a government solution? Is it a public-private solution? Where are we going with that? I would hope that the presidential candidates will be put on the spot time and time again, but for the most part and I've seen most of these debates when the public ask questions, they are primarily people oriented questions, it's not how are you going to get along with Congress? And it's not about partisan bickering. It's I have a friend who's been laid off because you know, his company was downsized. What are we doing for? That person? I have somebody else who goes to a school and she doesn't feel safe because kids are carrying weapons to school. What are we going to do about that? Those are the significant issues that America the American public would like to see addressed and so far for the most part the candidates in both parties have a lot of programs and have a lot of generalities. Well, yeah, we know it's bad the kids bring weapons to school. The question is what do we do about it? Is it a federal solution? Is it a local solution? And how do we address that? And at this point where our resources are relatively good that would seem to be a good Time to address some of the more deeper deep-seated problems Jim your (00:23:11) question. All right. I just came across the University of Iowa Futures Market on the Internet. It's in the politicians as wondering if you're familiar with it. And is it more accurate than polling (00:23:22) data? I'm not particularly familiar with it. The polling data I think is as accurate as pulling data could be given that we're telling people to guess. You know, if the election were held today is a big guess because the elections 11 months away for asking people, you know, how they would vote today that of course is a guess as house and how they're going to feel 11 months down the road. You should treat the polling data that you here with some degree of caution recognizing that for the most part the media organizations are trying to get an accurate sense of what the public thinks an accurate sense of a moving picture is just that it's as good as sense as we can get so I don't know much about the Futures Market I gather that has something to do with how people are projecting down the road how these candidates are going to do. That's anybody's guess it's not a national election. It's a series of local elections until you know, we get to November and I think we have to treat it as such look at the poll state-by-state. That's the best guess I think of what the public is (00:24:16) thinking Chris Gilbert is our guest this our he is the chair of the political science department at Gustavus Adolphus College, and st. Peter. He's come by today to Talk about politics specifically looking ahead to all the big election decisions that are going to be made in 2000 next year the first date on the calendar January 24th. When the Iowa caucuses are held will would like to have you join our conversation. Give us a call here at 6512276 thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities 1-800 to for 22828. We'll get some more callers here in a couple minutes. But right now this is a test of the emergency alert system. Fortunately, we passed enjoy the sights and sounds of some of Europe's most famous performance spaces on Minnesota public radio's magic of Music Tour of Italy. The nine-day trip includes guided sightseeing tours lodging at four and five star hotels gourmet meals and tickets to special performances including an evening at the La Scala Opera House in Milan. It's Minnesota public radio's Italy tour April 27th through May 7th for information and reservations call 1-800 to 287 123. By the way invitation to join us over the noon hour today more from our Minnesota centuries series all year long. We've been looking at life in Minnesota in the early part of this century and we'll wrap up that series at noon today right now news headlines. Here's Greta Cunningham Greta. Thank you, Gary and good morning. Negotiators are still talking with the Indian Airlines hijackers. The hijackers have dropped two key demands. Including a 200 million dollar Ransom but Indian officials say that hasn't affected negotiations much the foreign minister for the Taliban rulers of Afghanistan say it was the Taliban Who convinced the hijackers that demanding money violates the tenants of Islam. He said that the two sides can't solve their problem soon. The Taliban will force the hijackers to leave Afghanistan. He did not say how that would be done the hijackers took possession of the plane last Friday around 150. People are onboard inmates in the Louisiana State Penitentiary reportedly thought they could win their freedom by using the same hostage-taking strategy used by Cuban inmates earlier this month last add up to seven inmates took two guards hostage. The prison Warden says a third guard was beaten to death when he refused to give up his keys One inmate was killed. When a Tactical Team freed the hostages officials. Say order has been restored in the prison. It looked like the economic expansion is going to continue well into next year and become the longest in US history a business study group today finds that the index of Leading economic indicators Rose by three-tenths of a point in November. It's a key measure of the economy's future performance six of ten indicators were higher led by stock prices manufacturers orders of consumer goods and materials and money supply in Regional news. Tad Piper is giving up his role of CEO of us Bancorp Piper. Jaffray, he plans to move out of the position. He's held with the investment firm since 1983 President Andrew Duff will assume Piper's duties Duff has been with the firm since 1980 Piper will retain his title of chairman and will continue to serve on the firm's management committee the forecast for Minnesota calls for warmer temperatures with mostly cloudy skies Statewide highs today from 35 in the Northeast to 55 in the southwest at this hour International Falls reports cloudy skies and 36. It's cloudy and Duluth and 38 mostly sunny and Rochester and thirty-eight st. Cloud report sunshine and 46 degrees and in the Twin Cities mostly sunny skies a Of 43 Gary. That's a look at the latest news. Thanks Greta 26 minutes before noon. This is midday on Minnesota Public Radio. And we're talking this hour with the Chris Gilbert who is at Gustavus Adolphus College teaches political science matter of fact, he's the chair of the department at Gustavus. He's come by today to preview some of the big election races that will be on the ballot next year in 2000 starting at the with the president and working all the way down Senate Congress legislature. Lots of decisions to be made by voters next year and we thought this would be a great opportunity to take a closer. Look at what we might expect what some of the big issues might be and so on if you'd like to join our conversation, six five one two, two seven six thousand or one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight crests is next year going to be the year of the internet when the internet becomes a major factor in political campaigns, (00:28:59) there seems to be no question. The candidates have jumped on the learning curve the Ventura 90 Campaign showed that it's not just a place for people to get information, but can actually be used as an organizing tool that may have been a function of having a very good person in charge Phil Madsen who was the webmaster for the Ventura campaign who I believe is now working for Donald Trump. I think the candidates are finding that the internet is a place particularly for younger voters who are less likely to show up in general but more likely to show up in presidential years and to have an interest and I think that's certainly been true of the students who I've been teaching for the last few months that they're much more interested for most of 18 to 22 year olds who I teach this is their first presidential election of first chance to vote for a big one as they like to put it in and the internet has become a basic information source for those who have access to it and candidates like like any other aspect of the economy don't pass up a profitable possibility in the internet seems like a profitable possibility for a lot of candidates. I don't think it turns the election but it provides different news sources and it certainly provides the candidates. The way to connect to a set of Voters who have found a hard time connecting to the kind of campaigns. They see through traditional means that is through meeting candidates or through seeing advertisements or debates (00:30:15) are people sophisticated enough to sort through well to be able to determine objective legitimate information that they find on the internet about candidates and issues. (00:30:30) I guess my sense in this is probably my senses a teacher coming through more than my senses of political analyst is that people who use the internet seemed to be no more perhaps no less able to distinguish fact from fiction, then they do with regular media with newspapers or television. Certainly, of course public radio's Beyond reproach in that regard as we know but I think that some of my students but at least we try to excite people lose their critical thinking skills when they look at the internet because it's on the net it must be true because you know, and obviously that's not the case. A whole lot of junk out there as there's a whole lot of junk sometimes in print and certainly a lot of junk in in the electronic media. So so I'm not sure it's necessarily revolutionary. I do have a sense that younger people seem to put more stock in what they see on the internet than for example in what they see on television but in general younger people, I think put relatively little stock in what they hear from politicians. And so if the internet is a more trust in medium, perhaps that's a place for politicians to begin building more positive relationships with younger voters who I think are are more inclined to think they're choosing the best of a series of bad choices more so than what we say more experience more seasoned voters. So I'm not sure the internet changes everything but I think especially it's a way to reach younger people and and no I don't think people's critical thinking skills are particularly more well developed when they see things online than when they see things on the television news. Larry are question, please (00:32:00) yes, I find it amusing but not all that surprising that. Hillary Clinton has not announced her formal candidacy for US Senate in New York and I wondered what Chris has take was on that. (00:32:11) It seems to be the case that she's looking for the right time, you know, everyone assumes the timpani is running for Senate in Minnesota, but he hasn't formally announced his candidacy either and I'm not sure we put any particular negative spin on that. I think it's a matter of just having everything in place to the satisfaction of the candidate. Hillary is raising money and she is clearly working the state as a candidate works the state formal announcements mean a lot less than they used to most of the major candidates for president were running long before they made a formal announcement Elizabeth Dole had a six-month gap, for example when it was indistinguishable Elizabeth Dole the candidate versus Elizabeth Dole who had formed the exploratory committee. So I wouldn't place as much stock in that. I think it's clear that Hillary Clinton is running that will be a very difficult race against against mayor Giuliani who seems to be the likely Republican nominee, and I don't think she's All assured of winning well, we'll have to see how she does on her own as a candidate. She's never run for office before and obviously it's not impossible. We have a lot of examples out there of people who've done quite well the first time around but it is different and in particular New York is considered a rough place to run. I think she'll be able to raise the money. There's no question. She's tapped into those networks. But raising the money is not enough as many good Democrats have found in in New York elections. (00:33:29) One of the caller's on our mid-morning program this morning wanted to know why more women aren't running for office, especially at the presidential level. That was only one candidate to begin with Elizabeth Dole and she's dropped out. She's been out of the race for two three months. (00:33:43) Now, it's kind of the last spot of of breakthrough in many respects for women candidates, you know, there's there's a life cycle to people's political careers leaving aside Donald Trump in and some other examples there does tend to be a life cycle people who run for higher office tend to be people who've held lower office or people who come from Sort of public career where they're well known as more women enter lower office in the percentage of women in state legislatures on City council's at the lower levels continues to increase is certainly not as fast as many of us would like but it does continue to increase that increases the pool for the future. If you see more women in leadership roles, for example in the US House or in state legislatures that those are going to be the places. Those are the traditional places from which male candidates have come to run for the higher offices. It's significant that is women have entered into these lower offices. They haven't necessarily been able to grab those leadership roles. There's a all-time high percentage of women in the US House of Representatives, for example, but I don't think there's a single committee chair who's a woman which is often based on seniority and there are enough women there who have enough seniority that that should have happened. It actually happened though the Democrats but it hasn't happened yet on to under the Republicans. And so I think it's a matter of time before will see women run for president. I think what we really need is two or three so we can stop focusing on say Elizabeth Dole. As the woman in the campaign or Pat Schroeder as the woman in the campaign a few years ago when Jesse Jackson ran for president, it was considered remarkable that he was an African-American very little is made of that in regard to Alan Keyes. Now that might be because Alan Keyes drawers so little support but it could also be because Alan Keyes has run before in some respects more remarkable African Americans don't tend to be Republicans. And mr. Keyes is a bit distinctive in that regard. I think we just need to find more examples. I think there are women out there who will be able to raise the money who feel like they can have that kind of organization available to you to be able to make a viable Run for the presidency and it just hasn't quite happened yet, but I don't think it's going to be long into The Next Century, which is about a year away. Now, I'll just throw that in I don't think it's going to be long before you see two or three women seeking their party's nomination particularly as people tend to get more and more down on the political process and I'm not sure the 2000 election is going to turn around people's mindset on that, but I would be shocked if one of the two. Major party vice presidential nominees was not a woman. I think it's time for that and not just as a token. But as a reflection of the fact that there are many women who are right there ready ready to take on that responsibility and I think in 2004 and 2008 that the dam will break finally. Hmm. (00:36:19) And your question, please yes, thank you Chris. I'd like to hear your comments on how the issues of Reproductive Rights and abortion might play out in the upcoming (00:36:27) elections. You know abortion in many respects as a national public policy issue has declined somewhat the Supreme Court issued a series of rulings in the 1990s, which although they narrowed the scope of what was acceptable under Roe versus Wade, basically validated the thinking of Roe versus Wade that abortion should be acceptable and yet states can impose an in many cases some significant restrictions on it. I think Republicans were somewhat surprised that the issue of partial birth abortions did not perhaps carry as much water as a contrast between Republicans and Democrats and certainly if you watch the Republican presidential candidates, you get a pretty much a unanimous Litany of talk about abortion as one of the major social evils in the United States. You don't hear that, of course on the Democratic side, and I don't think you hear that as a significant issue the percentage of people who vote primarily on the basis of candidate stances on abortions is declining according to our to our post-election analysis of what voters have done at the state level. I think it continues to be an issue. It's going to be an issue for Tim penny. For example as he seeks the dfl nomination for the US Senate being out of line with where the Democratic party is the parties. I think understand though that although they have visible and clear stances at the platform level that party regulars do not necessarily hold those stances Republicans were surprised to discover. I believe that over 40% of Republicans were essentially pro-choice that is the people who traditionally vote Republican. It's not a monolith in the sense that reading the platforms and listening to the top people would lead you to believe similarly. There's a whole lot of pro-life people out there who vote for the Democrats time and time again, I think it doesn't necessarily carry water as a significant issue anymore. It's more important at the state level in many states are going to find particularly states that have been posed some more severe restrictions on availability of abortions access abortions for minors things like that. You're going to find that in play but that that makes it more idiosyncratic to each particular State and how that state is pursued the issue. So I think it has less relevance. At the national level though again will pay a lot of attention to it at the convention level as if the convention represents what all of the rank and file of the party believe which clearly it does not (00:38:40) Crush Gilbert is with us. He is the chair of the political science department at Gustavus Adolphus College we in st. Peter. We don't have a lot of time left, but we'd like to get your question on if you have one we're talking this our about politics basically looking ahead to the elections next year. And if you'd like to join in six, five, one two, two seven six thousand 6512276 thousand outside the Twin Cities one eight hundred two, four two two eight two eight any one issue likely to dominate the debate next year (00:39:15) at the national level. I think the question of what America does with its Prosperity is quite important and I guess that's kind of a nebulous issue but on the Republican side the answer is that the prosperity that the Surplus in particular shows We're taxing people too high and there's going to be a strong push. You've seen it with all the Republican candidates with with significant tax cut or in some cases real tax reform proposals the flat tax of mr. Forbes. For example, that's going to be in play on the Republican side traditionally. Now that the Cold War is Over the Republicans perceive that the economic issues are where they rise and fall the get the government off our backs kind of approach Democrats. I think of course answer with tax cuts and that really should be seen as kind of a partisan response. I think more than a logical economic response that we should have tax cuts to although they'll be targeted which is the Democratic code for not necessarily reducing taxes on the top and keeping the system Progressive. I'm not sure big issue stand out the candidates who have made a large issue of the ethical side campaign Finance in the like don't seem to generate much heat and light beyond the fact that people agree that the campaign Finance system is screwed up. I just don't think that's something you can hang your hat on the one of the kicker's at the national level. I think is the response to the recent Vermont Supreme Court decision. I think gay rights and the question of the status of gays and lesbians and Society continues to rise up and importance. It becomes more common place for companies of all kinds to have benefits for domestic Partners the question of whether gays and lesbian couples should have some status like marriage if not marriage itself. That is some legal protections of the kind that married people have I think will continue to be important and candidates will be pressed to a great extent to to make a statement on that into end to you know, to have a response beyond what amount to a series of generalities about the issue at the local at the state level in particular. I think it really comes down to what do we do? You know with the fact that Minnesota continues to rake in far more money than the state budget allocates to spend as it simply go back to taxpayers doesn't mean that we're taxed to highly or does it mean that other significance issues that face the state the state of our schools homeless welfare poverty the long-standing Issues that it's taken a long time even to get to the point where you know, even though obviously too many people are homeless that it's fewer than it's been in the past as to whether we really tackle those things head-on and the public seems to generally be for incremental change in incremental change means incremental issues. It means a proposal here of proposal there. It doesn't seem to mean sort of this large-scale change and I think that the presidential candidates have been shying away from what seemed to be big schemes that seems to be the lesson of the 1990s whether that's right or not. I don't know it may just be the case that nobody's come along with the right big scheme, but outside of scrapping the federal income tax for a flat tax or a national sales tax. There aren't many big schemes out there quite frankly and I don't think you're going to see any emerge Eric your question, please. (00:42:17) Hi Chris. I just wanted to throw in here to that as I've listened to you over the years. I've really come to respect your (00:42:26) views and I (00:42:27) really appreciate your Even if I mean, I assume you have particular political viewpoints, but I really appreciate your objectivity. Anyway, my my question is please Chris if you could run through several scenarios that you see for the future of the reform Reform Party, you know, obviously good bad and indifferent scenarios. (00:42:55) Thank you for the compliment. By the way, you know, the traditional pattern for a third party in the United States is that it might last for a couple of election Cycles, but that the major parties figure out what it is. The third party is selling that is attracting voters away and they take steps to rein voters back in I think we're at a point in u.s. Politics where people are dissatisfied enough of what they see in the two major parties. The third party actually has a chance to fight back to that kind of co-opting of issues that the major parties have always done. So, you know the most logical path for the Reform Party Quite frankly is that by 2004 it barely exists that it will split up individual individual State party. Some of which will continue to have modest success and I think Minnesota might go that route historically that's what should happen and in particular if the Reform Party continues to focus only on the presidential level or primarily on the presidential level. I think that's what will happen. There's no payoff to running a third candidate at the national level. It's it leads to frustration. It leads to resources that would be better spent electing people to lower offices the optimistic scenario is that the Reform Party makes some breakthroughs in 2000 it State Legislative level in particular it can elect people particularly in two states like Minnesota where the partisan split is relatively close and then all of a sudden it has quite a voice because it becomes a coalition maker perhaps for anybody to form a majority in a state house or a state senate electing people to the US Congress unless you get people converting from one of the major parties and I think at the moment the Reform Party is not quite attractive enough for that that's going to be harder to do but for the Reform Party (00:44:29) Do (00:44:29) you have to have a long-term view if the reform party is going to make it it means that the Senate candidate gets 15% in 2000. Where as he or she got 12 percent or 10 percent 98 or 96. It means that all of those people continue to creep up and up 10 15 20 percent that's not failure and and Jesse Ventura has raised the bar to some extent many people are going to say if James Gibson gets 15 percent of the vote for US Senate next year in Minnesota that that's a failure of the Reform Party. That would be remarkably successful for mr. Gibson who so far I think is running a pretty good campaign though. He's not very well known. He's the only announced Reform Party candidates so far. So success is very incremental getting to the point where enough of the electorate is going to be there to actually put your people into office is extremely difficult. Unless you attract sitting office holders from one of the major parties who see a reason to jump or the major parties continued to deteriorate in their ability to reach and to capture voters loyalties. The Reform Party has a chance at that to be quite honest so far is not really Taking the steps. I think to field a slate of strong candidates. We're going to continue to move it forward. But the main point is that success is a 10 to 20 year plan. Not a 2000 election cycle plan for the Reform Party. I have to say history is on the side of the Reform Party breaking up but there are at least a few elements out there that suggests that that better things could happen into the future (00:45:51) any evidence that people will be much interested in politics next year, (00:45:58) you know, a presidential election does seem to interest people. If only to remind many people of what they don't like about politics and and you know so far if you've watched I don't I'm not being cynical at all. I think that's really true if you've watched the debates so far, it seems like all the candidates are saying exactly what you would expect them to say. I don't draw huge lessons from the fact that Jesse Ventura one last year, but one of the important lessons is that if a third person is talking differently. Sounds different sounds unique and the other two people up on the stage. And this was the case in Minnesota 1998 are saying exactly the things that you would expect them to say given the circumstances given the setting are offering you nothing except what that third person is telling you they're offering then I think Alternatives begin to be much more attractive to people Ventura didn't just win because he appealed to Minnesota voters he won because Humphrey and Coleman failed to appeal even to the core of their own party in many respects. And if the 2000 campaign offers up more of the same with even more instant analysis from people who are you know, less, you know willing to take the Long View like you and you and me Gary, you know, more media manipulation in the eyes of the public of what happens more spin about debates. You know, I think that's that's holds negative long-term consequences for the body politic. I think people want to get involved in politics. They see this as a as a good time in many respects because things are going well and that's the price. Point at which a successful organization is looking to the future. If you're in the private sector you don't just sit on good profits you think about you know, how you're going to keep that going down the road and if government is being relatively successful in managing the Public's dollar which I think it is by and large both at the state level and at the federal level now is the time as when you look to implement long-term successful programs long-term successful ideas to lead the nation into the future. I don't hear a lot of that long-term thinking for most of the candidates so far at the national level and people aren't going to like that if that's what they're fed for 11 months next year (00:48:03) Chris we're out of time, but I imagine you'll be with us next year from time to (00:48:07) time. If you'll have me I'll be back (00:48:10) you bet. Thanks a lot for coming in today. You're welcome. Chris Gilbert who is the chair of the political science department at Gustavus Adolphus College? And st. Peter joining us this hour to look ahead to the all the big election races that will be on the ballot in the year 2000, which is now at three days away something like that. Midday. (00:48:29) A moment Regional broadcast of The Writer's Almanac are supported by market Banks your community bank offering a broad range of financial services for your business and personal (00:48:39) needs. It's 5 minutes now before 12 o'clock and time for The Writer's Almanac.