(00:00:00) President Clinton has been in Tokyo this week meeting with Japanese leaders about u.s. Japanese trade issues. And of course participating in the G7 Summit tomorrow, he leaves for Seoul South Korea for talks with the Koreans and then he comes back home during this hour. We thought we'd spend some time taking a look at some of the issues. The president has been dealing with specifically us relations with Japan and Korea. But basically the Far East is our beat today and our guest is a Richard Kagan who's traveled extensively in the Far East. He is the director of East Asian studies at Hamline University in Saint Paul. You probably heard him here on our midday program from time to time over the last few months. Glad you could come in Professor. Appreciate it. (00:00:42) Thank you very much. My pleasure to be here. What's your what's your (00:00:45) general impression of how the president handle this trip? Will how much was accomplished really? Of course, he's declaring Victory today as you might (00:00:53) expect. Well, he's seems always be on the campaign trail and I can understand that most presidents are They don't always do it is openly I think that what's really important is to see there's been a major change here, which hasn't been fully realized yet. But the major change from the reagan-bush administration and that Administration the idea was basically to better our relationship with Japan economically and by trade by weakening the Dollar by bringing the ratio of the dollar down to the Yen, almost a parody. In fact, the government's goal was to bring it to parody that is 100 yen would equal 1 dollar Yen being almost like pennies in that way. The this is really changed a great deal and I think it's changed because it's shown that that policy the monetary policy or monetary-ism was really a failure. It did not work. And in fact the more that we lowered the dollar the more the Japanese actually increase their trade with this. I think this year we have a fifty billion dollar deficit Them in our Trade Surplus are their Trade Surplus that the changing the financial mechanisms did not really affect trade. It did not affect our quality control of our Goods did not affect the desire of Japanese to buy American Goods did not help the Americans to enter the market what it meant was that the Japanese turned around and bought property in Hawaii in New York invested in the stock market raised the stock had a great effect on the stock market and really it was a tremendous failure what Clinton is done is decided to go really point-blank at several issues of our trade rather than doing the whole schedule of our whole relationship. But to focus on areas like medical equipment medicine and pharmaceuticals manufacturing items, which he's done a very good job in it and has reduced the the tariffs on that so we can get our Goods into Japan on the other hand. He Some broken totally from the idea of the Bush Reagan administration that we should sanction Japan and other countries if they don't have fair trade with us and this is greatly angered Japan and our allies. They're very much against that and Clinton is going to have to back off on that one. I think a great deal in some other areas. He has not been at all successful yet on intellectual property rights on the computer chips on textiles and particularly on agricultural (00:03:26) issues. Now the Clinton administration of senior official was quoted by Reuters just a little while ago as saying that a major announcement could be coming out of Tokyo perhaps by tomorrow indicating a some sort of significant breakthrough and talks with Japanese on trade any idea what that might be about. (00:03:47) I don't really have any specific idea on that. I would think that the major one would have to be in terms of symbolically dealing with agriculture. The other area would be dealing with Intellectual rights though our relations with the Japanese aren't too bad on that. There are still problems. But I think if it was on agriculture, that would be one area. The other area would be on the computer chips in the computers and I would bet from the Japanese point of view that that would be the area would be on and the computer (00:04:17) area Our Guest today is a Richard Kagan who is director of East Asian studies at Hamline University in Saint Paul our conversation today focusing on the just concluded G7 Summit in Tokyo taking a look at us relations with Japan South Korea indeed whole foreign policy u.s. Foreign policy in the Far East in the Pacific Rim. We have some callers on the line. Let's go to our first caller. Good morning or good afternoon. Hello. Dr. Kagan. This is Phil and Deephaven and I have two questions for you. The first one I'd like to have you read the tea leaves about the no-confidence vote and the Japanese prime minister me has always government evidently the Japanese papers have been abuzz about restructuring which can be interpreted to mean a type of perestroika over the Japanese challenge. Translation for restructuring as a restore or restore which ironically was the term used for their major restoration. That's wondering if you think that a major restructuring is going to occur in the next elections or you think that the changes made will probably be just enough to restore public confidence and then return to another 30 years of party Rule and the second question is I'm just wondering down-home what steps would recommend for a small Minnesota business to Market their products in Japan. Thank you. Okay. Thanks for your call. Right? Let's see Minnesota - well, let's first of all take on the elections. They come up not this weekend, but the following weekend (00:05:34) the restructuring Harish in the Japanese are talking about is primarily in the political realm much like At. First the Meiji restoration was to which really does mean a consolidate power. In other groups. There is a great question if the ldp is really going to fall as quickly as we all think. That's the ruling party in Japan because at the moment the opposition He does not have a very firm or broad base across the country a lot of their allies in the Socialist Party. And in other religious parties is very shaky. It's in some ways very similar to Israel's attempt to have coalition's with various different groups. So I'm not sure how far that will go there will probably and most likely be restructuring in the sense of the corruption issue. People are going to be much more careful about whom they elect and also watch the much more they'll be more much more investigative journalism there there has not been a tradition of investigative journalism in Japan even a few years ago. You would talk to a journalist who would say, why should we expose our country? Why should we expose our party? These people are doing their best job. I think that it's in that area that will look for the Reconstruction are the yishun that you asked about also on the same line as I mentioned. There's very little almost no discussion of economics. Change in the political groups today. They're all talking about repositioning themselves and trying to gain more power. They're also talking about getting rid of the bureaucrats and bringing in real politicians because up until now Japan's been run much more by bureaucrats then by really political leaders or charismatic leaders. The second question that you asked I think that there are three ways for a company to try to get into Japan one is by I would suggest joining the Japan Minnesota society, which has meetings regularly for businessmen to discuss these issues. This is one one area. That's very good meeting. The second is to really keep closely in touch with the American government's negotiations with Japan and try and find out what tariffs are going to be dropped in the future in order to position yourself in the market. This is very important to know. The Japanese will allow you to sell to them the Japanese keep a very good idea. I on our Market the third is to depending on the company in each company is different to have a good eye on patent on new patterns in America. There is a patent office actually the University of Minnesota of new inventions, which are easily which are original and I think some of them could be sold abroad people don't make enough use of that. The Japanese are very very good at waiting in line almost in our patent offices in Washington DC and waiting until patterns are available and then squaring off and trying to buy up the rights to them. I think that if you have something to sell that is unique original will save money and will be one of a kind so to speak you would be more easily able to enter the Japanese markets. (00:08:57) Do you think if with Walter? Becoming The Ambassador in Japan. Will that help Minnesota business in some way. I would think maybe the Japanese would like to Cozy up to him by throwing a bone at Minnesota businesses a little (00:09:09) bit. Well, it always helps to have an ear in the office and Mondale, of course been very close to Minnesota. He's traveled to Japan many times. He's been engaged in trade relations with Japan. I think it is always helpful to have somebody you can call on the phone and talk to and come out and feel that sense of relationship more than that. I just don't know some of the issues that face Minnesota face the rest of the country equally or even more severely and of course if Mondale publicly favorite us, I would not go over very well. I think mondale's main problem is going to be going back to the first part of that question is if he can give any advice to the Japanese on the falling apart of the ruling party he of course, is that a lot of experience with that and maybe he could bring Glad to the fore and to be an advisor to (00:10:02) them Our Guest today is Richard Kagan director of East Asian studies at Hamline University other callers on the line. Hello. Hi, this is Brian from the real Saint James area. I have two questions. The first is I was wondering if there is a text on what I'll call for lack of a better term ancient Korea in English. And the second is I was curious to know how so many Korean adoptees came to be in the state. I'll hang up and listen interesting question. (00:10:29) Yes on ancient Korea. There's really very little in English. There's a great deal in Japanese. One book is by leak. Eibach Lolly iike aii be AK on Crea past and present the there are other books available actually at the Hamline University Library. We have a very large library on Korea due to the fact that we've had several friends in Korea. Send us a large number of books about Korea. And so we have increased our Holdings many many fold the problem also with studying ancient Korea is that under the Japanese Occupation the Japanese basically either stymied stopped or resisted any attempt for the Koreans to study their own past and the Koreans up until fairly recently also had this colonial feeling that their past wasn't really worthy of anything. So there wasn't a lot of research into it that is now changing but most of this Search now and the anthropology Archaeology is still in Korean or even in Japanese language has also the division of Korea North and South is prevented anyone from going up to Pyongyang and using archives her are going up in studying areas there and the North Korean materials are so dogmatically Marxist that is very difficult to figure out what's true or not. The second part of that question. (00:11:55) Why is it that so many Koreans ended up being adopted here in the United States that come (00:12:00) about thank you that came about in basically. I think three ways one was that we both Minnesota and Wisconsin were one of the first states to allow for interracial adoptions and international adoptions up until the 60s actually miscegenation anti-miscegenation laws anti interracial marriage and such laws were still. The books in the United States, Minnesota and Wisconsin and had much more liberal laws about miscegenation about interracial marriages in this was a key area that already had a lot of interracial marriage st. Paul's history of interracial marriages and relationships go way way back. In fact st. Paul in the Midway area was called the colored neighborhood which meant white and black together and there was a lot of this mixing you may say the second reason was of course after the Korean War there was a tremendous number of Orphans and two or three religious or social service agencies were very active in Minnesota particularly in st. Paul Children's Home Catholic Charities and others and they took a very active role in bringing these children here. The other was frankly and I don't know all the details but Northwest Orient Airlines help to expedite this. Flying orphans in I've been on what was called the orphan flight many times from Korea and you have these people almost take off the street and say when you take two orphans with you back to Minnesota and you see these sort of elderly men sitting there with a child an infant on each side and with bottles and diapers and the child crying and you say how did you end up here at this? Well, I just happen to be going back to Minnesota. They asked me about takes kids and it's not quite that easy but it is somewhat humorous to see a whole plane of you know orphans coming in. This is now stopping Korea has passed a law that in 1996. There will not be any more Inter National adoptions. The Koreans feel that their economy now is good enough. They don't need to quote dump the children abroad. They're very summer. Very embarrassed that they have been sending their children abroad and there also have been some rather nasty rumors about the use of children's bodies for For transplant operations. I shouldn't say nasty women's totally fallacious and wrong when where they actually started in Latin America, but they somehow got transferred to Korea and in Korea a novel was written about a movie was going to be made about you know, this misuse of adoptees all totally false, but this is still created somewhat of a scare a panic and then anger in South (00:14:54) Korea president goes to South Korea tomorrow goes to show all and we had anti-American demonstrations today. How serious first of all is there any threat to the president president safety while he's in South Korea and how much should we make of the Eddie American demonstrations that have been going on for quite some long while in South (00:15:16) Korea? First of all in terms of his safety, I think there are no problems there at all. Almost all of these student demonstrations with a few exceptions. Of course, I've been fairly nonviolent. It is really almost choreographed. People think that it's almost a student's rite of passage to be engaged in some kind of political activity students in Asia have always had a major role in political activity and demonstrations in writing petitions and such the what's amazing is how many of these demonstrations go on in the number of people and afterwards they just go back to school or back to work and there's no big trauma to the society. Usually not always secondly what we need to make of this is that of course, the president is a symbol of America and his going to Korea is a way to for the students particularly in others to present their views on the main as some of the main things that they are demonstrating about its America's role in Uprising and Slaughter in 1980 where the Korean military suppose allegedly was allowed by the American Military to go down in southern South Korea and kill a lot of Students that is we gave them permission to leave their posts up toward the North Korean border and move down. So they are the students are still very angry about this and the role of both American and South Korean government in that it is interesting that these demonstrations have changed though. They are no longer calling as loudly or vociferous Lee for a reunification with North Korea. That's not the issue. It was the issue some years ago, but the students have become I think a little bit more aware of the problems of reunification and they are backing away from such strong support of North Korean South Korean unification. I think that's very important. So once you're not look just at the fact of demonstrating but look at what their demands are and what the history of those demands (00:17:16) are. Do they want the US military out of South (00:17:19) Korea. Most of them do want the US military out in South Korea. They want there's a tremendous feeling of anger that the Americans have been there. And so Long there are now large sort of social groups writing about prostitution in South Korea and trying some ways compared to prostitution in the Philippines and in other areas and blaming it on the American Military presence. There has been some open anti-americanism in Korean nationalism in the areas where the American Military congregate there have been issues over Turf the Americans have a base where it's the best golf course in Seoul and has been negotiations. Should they leave and how should they leave and this has really been the bar (00:18:05) down? Why do we stay there? Why don't I mean South Korea's or as a is quite a strong country. Now, why don't why doesn't the u.s. Just pull its troops out at this (00:18:14) point. Well, there are a lot of people who argue we should pull our troops out and there have been testimonies and Congress that we should the main the three main reasons given her first of all that the Americans on the front line against the North Koreans is it Wire is an area where if North Korea attacks, they know that America will come in and that Americans if they are killed they will be there. A lot of people have not like that policy and I'm really wanting to see it changed and don't want us to be there as a trip wire. The second is his it frankly even up until now our intelligence agencies our analysis of the data. We feel is still stronger than the South Korean and we need to be on in sit to on spot to do that and to watch what is going on. The third reason is that the South Korean government actually wants us there they want us to remain there and they said even after hostilities with North Korea cooled down a great deal other than still like to see us are for a period of time the final reason which is in discussed very much is what other based we have in East Asia. We have some military. In Japan, we have pulled out of the basis of the Philippines. We just have Korea in the North Pacific there and if we leave that then you know, where are we and of course some other people say we shouldn't be there at all and where we should be as back home. Of course. They have no basis to return to here either. All (00:19:47) right. Our guest today is Richard Kagan director of East Asian studies at Hamline University in Saint Paul. We're discussing the G7 Summit which just concluded in Tokyo taking a look at us Japanese relations us relations with Korea US policy throughout the Pacific Rim. We have a caller on the line with the question. Hi. Hello. Dr. Kagan. My name is Mark Boudreau Lee and I'm calling from JP International. We're going to be making a trip to Tokyo on the 21st of this month. My question is what do you make of the recent USA Today CNN poll that suggests that the Japanese majority tended to believe that the relationship with the United States is bad and getting worse while the American citizens tend to believe that it is good and getting better and how does this house? It's going to play in the recent elections in Japan. Is it going to affect one party over the other and then also, how does this affect on how Japanese see American Products? (00:20:41) Thank you for your call. Those are good questions. And I would want to begin with the first one about our relations in Japan today. There are two terms one is kembe and the other is bubay kembe is gut-level dislike of America. And bubay is Contemporary American. These are pretty fairly popular terms which have just developed in the last year or so year and a half which reflect a change that attitude even before your poll came out the Japanese sort of negative attitude for America. I think it's not at all in any way at all based upon the our goods are products, which the Japanese do like it's sort of high status. They're good products the ones that we do sell their the but it's much more on our social political and our economic policies at home. We have for instance when the president of a Osaka area University came to Boston. He was killed in his hotel room. He was there to set up a relationship with another University in Boston a couple of years ago and nobody to my knowledge in the Department of Education in the United States expressed any sorrow or wrote a letter to Japan saying we're really sorry about this this by the way is countered by President Clinton's telephone conversation with the family of the young man who was shot in New Orleans and his giving his condolences which I think show that were really trying to deal with this problem in these issues the Japanese now when they come to America have a little tourist guide that says how you should be aware to sort of protect yourself from being robbed beaten attacked and what you should do particularly in certain cities and areas not to go to sort of a security guide for travel the our Comic policies the Japanese very much dislike the fact that we have had this deficit in our own budget and that we can't control it that we just seem to be totally irresponsible fiscally and financially and this makes us look someone is fools and the third is of course that they feel that our whole education system and our whole social system is basically falling apart. So they have this gut level dislike of America, but it doesn't really as I say the kembe but it doesn't really I think affect our trade relations per se when many years ago and believe with Johnson Johnson went into Japan they decided to go in with a toothbrush which all Japanese have toothbrushes but having having one made in America was high-status. I think this still exists today for my own knowledge the so I I think that the attitudes that you see there I will not affect the trade directly as far as the elections in Japan. I am afraid that the groups that will start promoting being against America Japan Mutual Security treaty the Clause of the Constitution against Japan developing a military. The are there are continued dependence on America. All of these things are now becoming a nationalistic issue and the Japanese want more and more to spread their own Wings to break away from that even the Socialist Party has backed off of its support a total support and total commitment to the Constitution directive not to have (00:24:14) military as Japan want to rearm Allah World War (00:24:17) Two. Well, of course Allah World War II brings up a lot of images of Japan and and I don't think they want to rearm in that way. But I think they do want to rearm in some ways. I think they want to rearm in at least two ways one if they are going to be used as a peacekeeping force by the United Nations. They really need To have more military experience and more military power. They did go into Cambodia after big debate. And at least one Japanese was killed in Cambodia in the UN Mission. They weren't allowed to have loaded weapons. I think that this as made them question. What are we doing? If we're in a peacekeeping mission and we can't have weapons of can't be armed to can't defend ourselves. Should we go at all? Why should we sacrifice ourselves? The other side of it is is that there's more and more fear in Japan that China's because it is developing a Bluewater Navy that is a ocean Navy that it is becoming more powerful and that they are threatening Japan. But recently when the emperor went to China the Chinese started a petition Drive having people have rallies and campaigns against the emperor asking him to apologize and also demanding the Japan return Islands to China. After his visit China is Coast Guard or navy fired shots across the bow of at least two Japanese Freighters. And of course the Japanese have no way to retaliate on that. What is going to happen when China takes over Hong Kong and gets that Seaport in South China and Southeast Asia is China then going to continue its hostilities against Vietnam over the islands that they both claim that they have is China going to start interfering with the sea routes in East Asia and if America 7th Fleet is no longer there, which it isn't and if it's out of the Philippines and not in Korea and maybe just a ragtag group in Singapore. What who will protect Japan and these are major issues. The Japanese were thinking about today. (00:26:32) Is there a danger that say, Japan China could end up in a war (00:26:38) well, There's there's always a there's a present danger but there are squabbles that they could have if Japan sides with Vietnam over who possesses certain Islands in Southeast Asia, the spratly islands or the other Islands if China says we're going to take these islands back from Japan that Japan has and we're just going to you know sees them there could be some hostilities. There are also other areas that are hot spots North Korea one side. Will China take if North Korea continues its hostilities China and so far it's been fairly neutral. It is not supported North Korea that much but there are definite divisions within the Chinese government on supporting North Korea or not. But we'll South Korea do if Japan if a new government with the socialists come into power in Japan and they start booing North Korea and saying we will give North Korea special deals 85 billion. Dollars with the latest suggestion. We will pay them 85 billion dollars for reparations from World War II and other things and we will have trade relations. How will that affect South Korea? How would that affect China? What the there are a lot of really boiling points there and Japan fields that they don't want to just keep following under America's wing and be attached to America as tightly as they are (00:28:06) our guest today is Richard Kagan who is a director of East Asian studies at Hamline University in st. Paul. The G7 Summit has concluded in Tokyo and we thought it would be interesting today to chat a little bit about what the summit accomplished or didn't accomplish and US relations in in the Pacific Rim. Do you think Professor that the United States is truly interested and committed to to the to the Pacific or do we remain or are we to eurocentric if you will (00:28:39) there will always be a Juggling the American government on which way to look this is just something that we have inherited from our past. There are people who look to the Pacific in the Pacific Rim is the area. We should be most interested in in terms of trade in terms even of new ideas new fashion. There are others who look to Europe and then there was of course a third group. That's a America First and we should be isolationist. I think what Clinton is doing that's very positive is that he is really trying to create multilateral relations in Asia and still maintain our position with Japan, but he really sees that and I think correctly so that if we just work on japan-only we will lose out in the rest of the Pan Pacific area and that's really an important area. Let me give one example under the earlier Administration when we did find out that some of our Surplus our trade deficit with Japan was going down a little bit. But what happened was that our trade deficit with the other Pan Pacific countries was going And it was going up because Japan was buying going in a joint ventures are buying Industries in other countries like Thailand Indonesia, and now since Vietnam and building those up and then sending those products to us one very good example is something as simple as pencils which is really a multi-billion Dollar business pencils and pens and they rather then exporting out of Japan they set up businesses in Taiwan and Thailand and a lot of the things we buy say made in Thailand or made in Taiwan, but in fact, they're made by Japanese companies in those countries. So even though we reduced our trade deficit a little bit with Japan it went up in the other areas. So what you have to do is see that this is a Pacific Rim or a whole world policy. And I think that that is what our president is is considering in trying to do but that doesn't mean that he'll win it that Other people in our government won't pulling back to Europe or to Japan only or to China only or to other areas. (00:30:46) Do you think that people around here for example, forgetting about America as a whole just people in our area have some built-in biases against Asians Japanese specifically and are overly concerned about about the Japanese for example becoming too powerful. (00:31:08) I think there's one has to answer that in two ways. The first is that personally in privately I think people in Minnesota Wisconsin in this Upper Midwest are the warmest people around and have absolutely no racist views at all regarding, you know, the Japanese or Chinese they would welcome them on the other hand. They have very very strong economic fears and fears of their own livelihood, which aren't attached to personally they aren't attached to saying Japanese are bad people. They are attached to Japan is a threat to us and that we must protect ourselves and that the Japanese aren't government is not allowing our Goods in and this makes them very very angry and seek for protectionism. But I haven't seen any of that anger projected onto individuals. I know it Hamline University and other places there's tremendously good strong relationships personal between Japanese Chinese and students from all over (00:32:10) let's talk about human rights are course. We often have well, we've heard a lot about the human rights situation in China the debate over us relations with China in light of China's human rights policies. What about Japan is that Japan is a democracy, (00:32:28) right? Yes. It is a democracy and human rights issues in Japan are important internationally and domestically internationally. There was just a meeting in Bangkok the very Of its kind of an Asian Human Rights group and Japan was represented there as well as China and Iran and about 20 40 other countries and about a hundred non-government organization representatives. And what happened there. Was it Japan very much took the American position the the Christopher position that human rights is really indivisible. It's Universal and it comes should be promoted ahead of Economic Development or Social Development Iran China some of the other countries took the position that Human Rights was different in each culture in each area that there was an Asian human rights that was significantly different from Western human rights and that Economic Development took priority over a political human rights or civil human rights. We call them the political side that it was more important for people to have a home than to be able to vote for instance and Japan. Took great exception in this Japan also said there should not be direct linkage, but there should be some relationship between human rights and a more open trade policy. They weren't directly critical of China talking about the most favored nation issue, but they were saying that there was there should be some relationship there where the other countries said. There should be none at all. And Japan also argued that Human Rights was not an issue that was just an internal issue to one country, but it was a really Universal issue to all countries and the China and Iran and some of the other countries Malaysia saying that this is our private Affair that this was not a legitimate response to the questions domestically, Japan has a few rather major human rights issues, which they try and keep really under the rug. So to speak one is with their Korean minority have a very large Korean minority in Japan. Who are very restricted in terms of their citizenship rights or lack of them? There's also repeated. Reports on torture or at least beatings in the Jail's people not being treated very well in the Jail's once they are arrested but on the whole the Japanese human rights position is fairly good domestically, but there are those (00:35:09) problems is the South Korean government still as repressive as it used to be (00:35:13) no the South Korean government actually now that they have a new president who was a politician Kim young-sam and who is not with the military. He is brought about some major changes. He's his predecessor as well. But he particularly has reorganizing the intelligence community and their repressive actions against the students and they're listening on tapes to phone conversations. The restrictions on reading about North Korea have been loosened a great deal and Now people can buy works on North Korea travel is allowed there. Not to North Korea unless you're it's okay, but most traveled now is allowed to other places. There are still problems there. They're still in part the old traditions in which the police do not feel remorse if they beat somebody up and there is still a great deal of leftover anger over the Communist Invasion. Although most recently one man has been held since 1952 in South Korea claimed to be a spy or 52 or 56 was finally released and he went back up to North Korea. So there are there is a loosening up (00:36:30) callers on the line with a question. Hi, I'm a veteran of World War Two. It seems to me that it would be to our advantage to have the Japanese develop some military power. I don't think it makes any Sense for us to have to really be responsible which I think would occur if they didn't do something about it. (00:36:59) That's a as I mentioned before that's a very touchy issue and it's one that is coming to the fore in Japan at the moment those people who argue for being a military presence claim that it would be very different than from World War II and World War Two the military really had its own head. It centrally it's an independent unit on the cabinet. Nobody could veto it. If it vetoed anything in the cabinet the whole government could fall today is run by bureaucrats is run by civilians. It's it's watched very carefully. It doesn't have its own budget. It doesn't have can't make its own policies and people argue that this is a very different Army indeed than the old Imperial Army because it's rained in other people argue that from the fears of World War II the Japan would just rearm they look at the Japanese and very much of a sort of a racist or ethnic way that they were all summer I or they were all military Warriors. And then it's a warrior culture and then just give them a weapon in they'll be you know, running around the world again, I tend to agree with the collar that I think some military presence is necessary to counterbalance other groups in East Asia that we would never be able to do ourselves. I think that would maybe and maybe not but I think it would perhaps make some groups pull back there more militant strategy if they knew that there was another power in the area that could would be a countervailing power. I'm thinking primarily of Hong Kong and China taking over Hong Kong. I'm thinking of China with the islands in Southeast Asia. I'm thinking of North Korea and its policies toward South Korea. I'm thinking of Indonesia and Timur and other areas like that that I think that Japan could provide with its strength tempering. (00:38:59) Fourths. Is there any concern among those other Asian Nations that that Japan would return to its policies of the (00:39:07) 1930s? Well in the other countries the government's in charge many of the leaders try and raise up those issues. They really work on them. I mentioned before the emperor coming to China the Chinese government created their own groups of people to oppose the emperor coming and then the leader of the main leader of that group and the emperor came was sent off to Central China by the government, you know, just keep him away. The Chinese government said any demonstrations people should be arrested but demonstrations went on and nobody was arrested. It's you know, that they probably I'm not carefully orchestrated right? I'm not privy to this but I but basically I what was going on in Chinese Minds people I talked to was that the government's telling the Chinese look anytime. I was telling the Japanese look anytime we want we can bring 1 billion people against you. You know, we can just light that fire. So you be careful will accept you now, but within our within our terms almost any time the Japanese by and I'm exaggerating of course for a fact that by Swiss army knife the Chinese Yelm militarization. We are meant were against it and they have really kept that argument up other countries are still really feel that that war was so nasty and so bad in many ways particularly these Comfort women issue and others that they're really afraid of the arrogance of the Japanese are economic political and to give the military strength. They might do the same thing again, (00:40:40) you mentioned military strength war in the rest of it. Can't let you go without asking you about North Korea and its nuclear weapons. Does it have them? (00:40:51) Well, the CIA thinks they have at least one or the potential to make one. There are two problems. There one is that they definitely have the potential they can make one but a lot of places can the real problem is is that they can deliver it that they have ballistic missiles like the scud missiles at they've sold to Syria and Iraq and Iran it seems now as well that they have missiles that are fairly accurate and they can be delivered into South Korea. They can be delivered into Japan. And of course in a China as well. This is the real fear just having a device is not enough to launch it and deliver it but they can actually do that and what day well, that's the big the big question. I mean 11 is a you the way of thinking now is it Kim il-sung is still the leader the old man would not do it but his sudden people really don't know a lot of people argue that he's really somewhat deranged and Noise and other people argue. He's just very astute and very clever. But whatever he is. We really don't know. We don't have a lot to go on the other great fear isn't if they have the weapons or not, but would they sell their technology and even their materials to places like Libya Iran Iraq other countries because they needed the for their own Financial, you know development the also would they sell their biological warfare in their chemical warfare items and the real problem is the dispersment not that North Korea would or would not use their weapons or this but that they would just fan the flames and this is one reason why there's a report that that Israel is actually in negotiations with North Korea in an attempt to blunt them from sending their ballistic missiles or scuds and such in the Middle East and which would threaten Israel and their ideas. Let's let's trade with them Let's help them out because now the only thing that North Korea can Well besides at some books on Kim il-sung is its military power and this would greatly upset the region. (00:43:01) Let's go to a caller on the line with a question for Richard Kagan. Hello Hi, how are you today? I have a question 1997's coming about when Hong Kong is going to be given back to the Chinese and what will happen to the citizens of Hong Kong. Well, they'd be more or less repressed are with a which I just believe it has pretty much a place in Okinawan and money. So just just keep like it is. (00:43:23) Yeah. Well you've asked the question that everybody in Hong Kong is asking and and again you don't have a single answer to it. It depends on you know, your view of history and of the world also depends on your view of Fate. I remember I was flying fairly recently in a Hong Kong and a elderly woman was sitting next to me and I asked her what she was going to do about 1997, and she He looked at me without a smile just Chinese that I hope that I'm no longer here by then. Some people many people take a very passive fatalistic attitude that it's going to come. It's going to come we'll just make the best we can do on the whole however, most people who are the intellectuals or political liberals and leaders say that this is going to be disastrous and China is already shown that it's gradually taking away an eroding the freedoms the freedom of representation the freedom of the press and freedom of free speech other people think that if the Chinese begin managing Hong Kong, it will soon become almost as dirty and and bad is most of the rest of the places in China. There are Other people of course who say Well, since this is inevitable will make the best we can of it. We will begin investing in China or will get out of here. But on the whole my view is that it is not going to be a very nice situation part of the reason by the way that some people are fatalistic or are they say well make the best of it is that Hong Kong is botch. I'm sorry. England is botched up Hong Kong so badly with only now pattern the governor of Hong Kong talking about democracy and freedom after Thatcher and basically give it a way that people are are angry a China but they're even more angry at Hong Kong and I'm sorry the British and the British government in Hong Kong and what they've done in them and they think that they have really dropped them. There's nothing they can do now and that whatever China does it's because the British never really stuck up for them. (00:45:35) Go to another caller with a question. Hello. Hello. I'd like to change the subject and talk about AIDS. The Pacific Rim AIDS has just devastated central Africa. And from what I heard, especially Thailand there next, you know, it's really out of control there and I like to have an update then (00:45:58) the AIDS issue is a major problem particularly as you pointed out in Bangkok in Thailand. There are estimated maybe no one really knows hundred thousand or more of AIDS carriers the it's also I might add in areas like Malaysia and it's harder to fight in Malaysia most recently because the government is being pressured very much by the Islamic fundamentalist who do not want men to wear condoms who do not want to allow condoms to be sold by government agencies nor education about condoms in the schools. And one of the ironies is non-government organizations that is in there. National groups have come in to sell condoms and give the education but primarily in the city's whereas a lot of the problems with AIDS as far as people know our is in the countryside in Malaysia and Thailand up until very recently not for religious reasons, but for political sensitivity reasons and also because of the tourist trade the Thai government also has been reluctant to deal with the problem head-on and directly and is trying to do it indirectly pressure is there are building immensely in Thailand on this particularly in the of course in The Prostitute area, but male and female which there's a large industry in Bangkok the so AIDS is being looked at but by most countries in the area very reluctantly and very very (00:47:28) slowly we've got time for one more caller. Hello. Hello. My name is Lyle Christians and from Golden Valley and I'd be interested in Professor Keegan's comments on the emerging role of women in Japan and what Says Crown Princess masako likely to have (00:47:46) thank you for the call. Yes. I I think her influence is going to be major and just seeing are sitting between the two heads of state their Yeltsin and Clinton and speaking fluently in both English and Russian and also knowing French and being with the heads of state unlike really any other woman in Japan Japan's political and diplomatic history. I think is of major importance. Secondly women in Japan in the last few years have really come much more to the fore in terms of Education in terms of doing business in terms of traveling and traveling on their own the rules against them are rapidly being broken down when anyone now make sort of a misogynistic comment anti-woman comment. They are slapped down the minister of Education a few years ago, so that You should not get a lot of physical exercise because they should be weak so men can do what with them whatever they want. And this man was sacked. He probably wouldn't have been sacked a few years ago. One of the prime minister's bragged that he beat his wife. Some years ago not would not happen today. There are still problems in Japan, but there are great changes coming and I think that this is a harbinger of even greater (00:49:05) change. What kind of an impact? Oh just a few minutes or few seconds left actually about a minute. What kind of an impact do you suppose? A Hillary's visit to Japan is going to have on that movement strong woman outspoken. (00:49:19) She will have a very strong impact. There are all kinds of tabloids with pictures of her Clinton. However in its Administration are trying to keep her image down a little bit by not having her walk around too much and not taking away from the conference's effect, but she is definitely Lee a symbol and a heroine for many Japanese. (00:49:46) Well, thanks so much Professor. I sure appreciate your coming in we have used up our time. We've got people on the phones with questions, but we've run out of time our guest today is Professor has been Rich Professor Richard Kagan who is the director of East Asian studies at Hamline University in st. Paul?