(00:00:06) Bruce Watson our studio guests today will be answering your questions about the weather. I guess that's something of a topic in the news today actually with the precipitation that we're having National Weather Service radar as of half an hour ago showed rain moving North 15 to 20 miles an hour throughout the southern half of Minnesota and Western Wisconsin, and some heavier rain is reported through the southern and western parts of the Minneapolis st. Paul area as well. The State Transportation Department says that all roads in the area are in good fall driving condition at the moment, but since the rain may change to snow later on tonight, and tomorrow motorists are urged to be alert to changing weather conditions and use a bit of care when traveling today. The topic of whether hardly needs under any introduction, so maybe we should just give out the telephone numbers right away and let people get their calls in their questions to Bruce Watson Consulting meteorologist. 2276 thousand is the phone number of the Minneapolis st. Paul area. In other parts of the state call us collect at area code 612 2276 thousand the toll-free number that we usually have an operation is tied up with membership week activities today and the same goes for people listening in other parts of the region as well Bruce. You are a Consulting meteorologist. As I said, how does what you do differ from what the National Weather Service does? (00:01:28) Well, Bob would I do a difference pretty much from what both the National Weather Service in your television meteorology. Do my work is basically a weather research and I do a lot of work on storm investigations for attorneys. I do a lot of work on basically my ground is Weather and climate this is what I study and fact on the TV. If you look at just about any of the change channels, you'll find a lot of the material on there about Minnesota weather history and events in the past is my work. (00:02:03) So you don't specialize so much in day to day forecast says in longer longer term weather (00:02:08) patterns. That's correct. I do also do long range forecasting and I sort of got into that backwards. I discovered that there's a lot of predictability in climatology a lot more than most people assume that there is and so if you look at the past, you know, it's just like the historians tell us that we can draw many Parallels for the future if we look at the past. (00:02:35) Well, what have you concluded about the upcoming winter? How severe do you think it'll be? (00:02:39) Well, I think we're going to see a blow normal Winter Dream the heart of the winter, which I Define as between Christmas and Washington's birthday. I think we're going to run below normal and temperature during that period and proud. Somewhere near normal, maybe even belong on one precipitation or as far as the snow falls concerned (00:02:56) what leads you to those conclusions? (00:02:58) Well Bob, it's quite a few things that are involved. I keep charts of various weather variables and see how they're doing. And one thing I always look for in most cases is for records not to be broken unless you have some kind of a cycle occurring a cycle can overrule one of my rules that nature doesn't like to break records. And of course we have the third longest weather record United States here in the Twin Cities going back to 18 19. So it's pretty hard actually to ever break a record that goes back to 1819. So that's one of the things I use another thing. I used very heavily, of course is the current trends the upper winds what they're doing to the current weather pattern because a lot of times these things Attend establish themselves for periods of anywhere from a month through six to eight weeks to sometimes even six months we get these various patterns and establish themselves in the upper air and that holds yeah. So the weather maps are quite important to (00:04:08) it's about five minutes past the our Bruce Watson is here. We're taking your questions today about the winter weather phenomena to 276 thousand is the telephone number to call if you have a question two two seven six thousand for Minneapolis st. Paul area listeners. If you're calling outside the Twin Cities area, please feel free to call us collect at that number. The area code is 6 12 and that applies both to people outside the Minneapolis st. Paul area with in Minnesota and those in the surrounding states. We do have one caller already on the line with a question. So I'll go ahead you're on the air. I was glad to hear him say he did a little future forecasting because my question is are we going to have a blizzard next week? And I want to go up to Northern Minnesota for Thanksgiving but I don't want to drive if if I'm going to get stuck up there with a (00:04:57) blizzard. Yeah. Well, actually you're asking me for a short range forecast and I just got done saying that's not what I do. Basically you can probably expect our first good snow storm somewhere around December 6. But again when you get into the short range, that's not my bailiwick. (00:05:14) Do you think we'll have I know that last winter? We had a couple of real heavy snowfalls in the Minneapolis st. Paul area. One of them was in mid-april as I recall you suppose it will have something like that again this (00:05:24) winter. Well Bob, we've tended to have a heavier than usual snowfalls. And we've also tended to have our snow occurred kind of late in the year. In fact, some of the heaviest snowfalls in recent years have fallen in April. And in fact for a couple years in recent years the heaviest snow the winter felony April. So yeah, I think that this is our pattern. This is the regime we're in and can't see any reason we (00:05:49) Well out of it. So just when we get our hopes up that maybe we're all done way. We get one more good blast. That's right. One more 12 inch snowfall or more. All right, another listeners waiting with the question. Go ahead, please. Yes. Mr. Watson is here. Am I on the air? You sure are. Oh, I'm probably the wrong person to be speaking on here. Then I wanted to tell mr. Watson something rather than ask him. Well, my son David does worked with you in an SP a project at the end of last season, and I wanted to tell you that thanks to your inspiration. He's become the weatherman on his college Bates College radio station and is on the air three times a day spreading the good word. (00:06:28) Oh, yeah, right. I remember working with Dave really good kid. (00:06:31) Well, thanks for calling man that worked out successfully for him. Yeah. We'll see. How you doing. All right, another listener with a question. Go ahead please. I was wondering about the Um, I've heard that carbon dioxide is changing the weather and making it warm warmer and I was wondering about that. (00:06:50) Yeah. Okay. The thing is that nature millions of years ago locked up carbon dioxide in the ground in the form of coal will happen is that we had all the ferns that grew in everything and they fell in the swamps and got buried and of course, we all know that plants need carbon dioxide they eat it just like we breathe air. So it's something they have to have and of course when they die and they fall on the ground they take it with them and when it's buried it's removed from the atmosphere now back in the days went before the carbon. Dioxide was locked up. Of course the Earth was much warmer than it is now. So the fear is that if we burn all these fossil fuels and put it into the air what we're doing is unlocking the carbon dioxide which keeps the earth warm and the more carbon dioxide have the warmer the Earth gets That were unlocking this and then once again will change our climate and return to a warmer age. So whether it's what just exactly how warm it's going to get really know nobody knows as we unlock the carbon dioxide. My hunch is that 100 years from today people will be debating whether or not the warm-up has been due to the carbon (00:08:05) dioxide. What do you think? It might otherwise be due to (00:08:10) well you have many reasons to change the climate the amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun compared to how much is sent back can vary for other reasons just the way that the reflectivity of the earth varies and so that can cause a warm-up it's possible also that course around the Sun they've discovered there's lots of dust floating and everything in the universe. There's lots of dust if some of that gets between us in the Sun that can reduce the amount of energy and throws the balance off so there's a lots of reasons that the climate can (00:08:48) change. Well we have another listener waiting with a question for Bruce Watson. Go ahead please you're on the air good afternoon. I'm just buying a cabin up in Northern Crow Wing County and I wondered how the winter climate there was different from the winter climate in the Twin Cities and if they're going to have more snow and I can do some cross country skiing. (00:09:07) Well the northern part of growing counties essentially runs about six degrees cooler than the Twin Cities. So essentially went one thing this means is that snow does fall will stay on the ground. They're probably an average of about two and a half weeks longer than it does here as for the actual amount of snow in Northern Crow Wing County. They get about the same amount that we do perhaps maybe four or five inches more but the significant thing is probably the temperature which tends to stop the snow from melting so that your pack begins earlier stays around longer and is less interrupted during the time that it's there. (00:09:41) We do have some telephone lines open in the Minneapolis st. Paul area. The phone number is two two seven six thousand. If you have a question about the weather for Bruce Watson 2276 thousand and again, if you're listening outside the Minneapolis st. Paul area call us collected area code 612 2276 thousand every hour the National Weather Service prints out its Current temperatures and other conditions for various communities around the area when you've been on this program before Bruce you have said that those official readings taken that the Minneapolis st. Paul Airport and at other locations in other communities aren't necessarily going to be the same for every household in the area. Why is (00:10:26) that? Well, actually it's very rare for the temperature to be the anywhere near you in a farm. Let's say Ronnie metropolitan area. The reason for this is actually two things one is man's activity. We put a lot of heat into the air in the form of we driver automobiles industrial processes heating our homes air conditioning our homes these things all put heat into the air and is result on the average you have about five degree difference in the mean temperature the annual mean temperature of let's say Downtown Minneapolis the warmest spot to let's say some of the P areas of Ham Lake we which is the coolest spot in the Twin Cities the average annual temperature actually varies by five degrees, which is quite strong. That's generally about you have to go about 200 miles and latitude to get that much cooling. So it's a very strong effect. The second thing of course is the topography and vegetation cold air flows down into valleys. And if you're around a lake, of course that represents and a warm spot in the wintertime in a cool spot in the summertime. So let's talk to bog Rafi and man's activities make the temperature very everywhere over the area (00:11:40) lots of listeners on the line with questions. Now, we'll take our next caller. Go ahead, please. Yeah with the advancements that we've had in technology computers and satellites would have you I'm wondering what the more major discoveries that we have made using that technology in the last 5 to 10 years. What do we know now that we didn't know say five to ten years ago. (00:12:00) Oh, I think one thing we know now that the big computers of done in Via modeling has been to pretty clearly illustrate that the carbon dioxide effect is much stronger than the dust effecting changing the Earth temperature. So that means that the as we burn more fossil fuels we're going to put more carbon dioxide into the air and of course more dust but the carbon dioxide effect will be stronger than the does affect. If you go back 10 years ago people were debating as to whether the Earth would cool because of the dust or warm because of the carbon dioxide that's pretty well established. Now that we're going to the the predominant effect will be the warming effect as I say, I think a hundred years now people will be debating whether or not the warm-up is due to carbon dioxide or not. But I do think there will be a warm up and I think it probably will be due to carbon dioxide. (00:12:53) All right 12 minutes past the are let's take our next listener. Go ahead. Please. Come on there. You sure are. Yes. My question is in the Wind. Storms approach that the inner city area here often times. It seems that were really close to the trees melt point in where we may get rain or we may get snow and it seems that more often than not or at least many times we end up getting rain and my question is is it possible in a large metropolitan area like Minneapolis and st. Paul for the city to throw off enough heat into the air to raise the the Ambient Air Temperature to cause cause temperature rise. So that rainfalls rather than snow. (00:13:32) Yes, right. It certainly does. (00:13:36) Okay. Another listener is waiting with a question. Go ahead, please. Yeah, we hear quite a bit about El Nino is warm body of water in the Pacific what kind of influence does that have on our weather here? (00:13:46) Well, basically the ocean service temperature is the main controlling factor of the weather around the globe and if we look at the ocean surface temperatures will see that you many times get Anomalies of five degrees or more in service temperatures for long periods of time in the thing is the warmer the water is the more energy that is fed into the atmosphere. And the more energy you feed into the atmosphere the more you're going to change the way that the winds blow around the earth. So El Nino is just like the other anomalous water temperatures events that take place. It's going to change the way the winds blow now exactly. What effect El Nino has on our weather here. I don't think a person can really say because it's too complex for too far removed from the water itself, which basically is along the Equator west of Peru running Westward for a few thousand miles. We're just too far away. I think to pinpoint is the weather the last storm we had or the storm we're having right now is due to El Nino or not. The thing is that the water temperatures are always varying and we do get these warm and cold climatic regimes because the Ocean temperatures are ever-shifting which change the way the winds blow incidentally the way that the winds blow is what causes the ocean surface temperatures to change so the to feedback on each other the ocean and atmosphere are very very closely related to each other and in order to make better weather forecast in the future. We have to understand exactly what's happening in the ocean to you can't see you cannot understand the atmosphere without other also understanding the (00:15:27) ocean so they might have to put probes or other devices on buoys in the oceans just as they have measuring devices in the air on (00:15:35) land. Yeah. That's right. Bob accept more Soul. The meteorological satellites have been a real Boon studying a lot of this you can gather tremendous amount of data. You can tell your ocean service temperature now to within a half a degree from satellite Centigrade right from a satellite, you'll see it's very good. And so the ocean surface temperatures are no longer a great mystery, but the thing is that we don't have that much. He collected yet. The satellites haven't been up that long to really collect the body of data to do a lot of research. And of course, we need more and more powerful computers some of the new crate computers. Of course as soon as crate makes a better computer the national Center for atmospheric research grabs it up. I (00:16:19) think they're working on it. We had mr. Rogan and yesterday talking about some of the high technology developments. Anyway more listeners on on the weather with questions. Go ahead your next my next. Yes, sir. Okay first I'd like to compliment. Dr. Watson on is whether book which I refer to very frequently. My question is we have many farmers in Minnesota who are thinking about next year's crops. And since his bailiwick is he says their long range forecasting. I wonder if you care to comment on next Summer's the weather. (00:16:55) Yeah, I sure will. Yeah, I expected next summer. We're going to see some rather dry conditions. I think we're Going to see Minnesota in Northern Iowa a Western Wisconsin below normal precipitation during some of the critical months in the summer. And I think you'll see the area off to the east of us. Probably quite wet say Illinois, Indiana. I think they were going to have pretty much any indication. I very strong we're going to have a reversal of last year's pattern that we're going to be the ones to us suffer in the Illinois and Indiana are going to come out much better. (00:17:27) So we could have crop problems again next year in the (00:17:30) country. Well, yeah, I think what hurts worse is when it happens in Minnesota and I do think the my indicators say that we will have some kind of a drama next summer here in Minnesota. (00:17:42) Another listener is waiting with a question. Go ahead please you're on the air. Thank you. I am calling from Duluth. We live about four blocks up from Lake Superior. And in the years we've lived here in Duluth, which is about We've noticed that down here. We very frequently will be getting rain and when we drive up the hill for or anywhere from five to ten blocks, we will run into heavy snow. I would like to know what the effect of the big lake is on the local temperatures and the local snowfall. (00:18:30) Yeah. Well in Duluth, you have this huge body of extremely warm water sitting there in the wintertime. And of course what this does is provide heat to the air so that the snow will melt into rain before it hits the ground now one thing about Lake Superior. It's Unique in the world except for Lake Baikal in the Soviet Union. The two Lakes are quite similar each lake has about 1/4 of the fresh water in the world. So that together they have half the fresh water the fresh liquid water in the world. I should say In Lake Superior and Lake Baikal are different from every other water body in the world in that they're about the same temperature year-round water gets its maximum density at 39 degrees. And that's just where your average water temperature in Lake Superior sets. If you go to the ocean, let's say on the East Coast or West Coast you have currents flowing by so the water temperature varies across the year. If you go to any other Lake like say like Michigan here and or Lake Erie Lake Ontario, these Lakes change their temperature dramatically over the course of the year. You can go swimming in Lake Michigan. You can't go swimming and Lake Superior, except of course in Ashland at should climbing and Inlet, but Lake Superior is unique in that it keeps the same temperature year-round. So as a result yet acts as a big heater in the wintertime and acts as a big cooling system in the summertime and so the city of Duluth Only if you have heavy snow or heavy rain you have an East Wind. So what happens is that you get that warm air off the lake and downtown Duluth. And so you get rain instead of snow and I might say that another thing that enters into it is the fact that you have a steep rise in elevation at Duluth. And so the air is it rises actually is cooled by expansion is we all know that we take a balloon and let it go it gets bigger and bigger than it pops. That's what happens to these balloons that we want you to homecoming game or something. They get bigger bigger and pop so air expands when it rises and when it rises it cools, so as a result you're going to get snow up on the high lands west of the Louis and you going to get rain down in the city. (00:20:44) I guess the obvious follow-up question to that Bruce is why does the Lake Superior remain roughly the same temperature year-round the air up there get so bitter cold 20 30 below for a long periods of time. Why doesn't the lake change (00:20:57) temperature well, It's so vast. It's so huge. There's a huge volume of water in the lake is I say it's 1/4 of the fresh liquid water in the world isn't Lake Superior and it's just a I mean, it's hard to imagine how Big Lake Superior is until you look at a three-dimensional model of it. And then look at se models of the other lakes and rivers of the world. They would have huge body of water and assist so they are it doesn't look big on the map. But we look at the volume. It's huge and (00:21:24) the air temperature just isn't enough to influence the temperature of the water that much. No, that's right. Okay, 21 minutes past the are more listeners are on the line. We also have some lines open at 2 to 7 6000 2276 thousand if you have a weather question today for Bruce Watson. Hi, you're next. Well, I want to ask mr. Watson about sunspot activity and how this affects weather in the midwest if it all in particular the 11 and 22 year cycles and where we are in that cycle right now. (00:21:53) Yeah. Well, some people looked at sunspots and try to find correlations I myself. I haven't done this. I don't pay any attention to sunspots actually and from the articles. I read I still don't see any good relationships. In fact last winter. I predicted a warm winter which we had most people pretty good the cold winter and a lot of people are pretty good the cold winter based on sun spots this year. I'm pretty common cold winter. Whereas most people are predicting a warm winter. And again, they're using sunspots, but I have no faith in sunspots myself, but I'm not saying that they can't have a relationship. But the thing is that the ocean temperatures are such a over ruling such a dominant force in our weather that when you get to something like sunspots, you're getting a little bit esoteric and your connections there. I think rather poor. (00:22:42) Okay. Another listener has a question. Yeah. I'm worried for more than one reason about hailstorms. And I know that and sort of average is two to four days of he'll do you have any idea when those days might occur? (00:22:56) Okay each player. Yeah any given location in Minnesota will have Like two to four days a hail of a year, of course hail occurs probably most of the days of the summer. If you look at the entire State basically the hail season begins in late April and it runs through may actually giving a Peak in May but it's mostly small hail. We get in me in June you get into your your bigger he'll be but it becomes a little bit less frequent in July the frequency hail drops off and about the first 20 days of August it's down but then it goes up again between August 20 and September 20th you tend to get more hail. Once again, then after September 20th, it drops off and by the time you get into the middle of October becomes quite rare, however, he'll can occur at any time of the year. Actually we can get hail in January. It's possible. (00:23:51) All right, we'll move on to the listener with a question. Go ahead. Yes. I'm calling from Superior Wisconsin and we were interested in what the projection for the Global warming what it will have on our climate here living right near the lake. And then also we've noticed in the time we've lived near the lake and Superior that we've never had a tornado come anywhere near us. Is this related to living near Lake Superior. (00:24:13) Yeah. Well your local topography there probably does play A Part the coolness of the air. You're not having very many tornadoes. I think probably The High Ground off to the West has something to do with the fact that superiors down in the low location. Probably helps quite a bit. I can't remember the (00:24:36) second. So it was as to if the world climate becomes more warm. What will the impact be in (00:24:41) this period yeah, what will the impact be in this area? Generally we probably would tend to get somewhat drier and probably quite a bit warmer. One thing we have to worry about very much is maintaining our nighttime thunderstorms systems. If it weren't for nighttime thunderstorms in Minnesota and Wisconsin, in fact, the whole Upper Midwest this area would be a desert we get about two thirds of our summer rain at night time here from Nighttime thunderstorms. Whereas in most parts of the world you get your rain from your afternoon thunderstorms, but there's a combination of the Rocky Mountains the Gulf of Mexico and the particular way that the winds blow that brings us these nighttime thunderstorms, so that could be jeopardized if we underwent any kind of a significant climatic (00:25:28) change. Twenty-five minutes past noon Bruce Watson is with us. Here's another listener with a question. Go ahead please good morning. My name is Frank DiMaggio. I live on the west side of Lake Minnetonka and I'm concerned with setting up our sailing schedule for next year. Could you give us any insights as to whether wind is likely to be better between 10:00 and 2:00 a.m. In the afternoon for potential starts? And where might we find some information as to the average wind direction and velocity over the summer months from the end of May through the end of September. (00:26:08) Well, I have a lot of these data on hand. If you want to give me a call. Maybe that probably be a bit D of the best way to handle it. Why don't you give me your love my never? Yeah, I'm in the Yellow Pages under meteorologist and I'm in both Minneapolis. And st. Paul book under Watson Bruce F. Okay, Millie initials ass. (00:26:25) All right, that's maybe just a bit too involved in complicated to deal with on the radio today. Right? So our listener is invited to call. Mr. Watson at his home. All right, another listener waiting. Go ahead, please you're on the air. Yes. There have been theories and speculation about a shift or a changing of the Earth's axis. Obviously, that would make some vast climactic change. Do you have any comment on that? (00:26:50) Well, yes, the Earth's axis is Shifting oddly enough from what I've written sky and Telescope magazine the planet Jupiter exerts a very strong effect on the Earth's axis the orientation of it. And of course our Earth's axis will change. We'll get a steep I believe is 57 degrees and is shallow is somewhere around 10 degrees in the future. And of course this will drastically change the climate. We're going to have much more Extremes in the future when we tilt more and of course, it won't those times when we tilt less then we're going to have much less change from winter to summer. Actually the we might be better off as far as agriculture goes with a steep tilt than with a not much of a tilt because when we don't have much of a tilt this could subject us to frost year-round, even though the steeper tilt will give us more extremes will give us hotter Summers and cold Winters. It'll at least give us a growing season. But if the Earth weren't tilted at all, we just could not grow anything in Minnesota because we'd have Frost year round. (00:27:58) When can we expect this this tilt to actually have an (00:28:01) effect. I don't think we have to worry about it. Not only the people alive now, but I think man will be Long gone from the earth probably by the time the Earth tilts enough you're talking about the course here hundreds of thousands millions of years. Okay, we can breathe a little more easily. I think (00:28:18) 28 past here is another listener with a question. Go ahead, please good afternoon. I was wondering if you could recommend a book or maybe a series of books that describes basic weather principles and phenomena. (00:28:33) Okay. Well, I guess the first book I always recommend is for somebody starting out is this golden book by layer on whether it sells for I think about $1.95 and most bookstores and it's part of the golden book series. It's very accurate its reliable and it gives the very fundamentals beyond that I think callers book the weather machine is pretty good. They have probably the second book you want to look at and then you can by the time you're through with that you can start branching out, hopefully. Local library has quite a few books on whether (00:29:10) okay. It's 29 minutes after 12 o'clock. 2276 thousand is the phone number if you have a question about whether we have a couple of lines open, so if you were getting the busy signal earlier, you might try again now. Okay your next go ahead. Please afternoon this last summer in addition to being among the warmest since 1819 was certainly one of the most humid according to figures announced by the National Weather Service. I charted 42 days with dew point temperatures of 70 degrees or higher compared to a usual dozen or so. Is it likely that this was the most humid summer we've had and how could I find that out if that information is somewhere available? (00:29:50) Yeah, that's one thing. I've been trying to check myself the way that the humidity records have been kept unfortunately aren't very consistent. The thing is you can express humidity. So many ways you can express it as dew point. You can express it as relative humidity along with the temperature. Can express it as absolute humidity vapor pressure and mixing ratio and there's even other ways to express humidity. And the thing is that these have been used in Palm published at different times. And I do think that this last summer is certainly was the humidity that was by far the more significant factor in being unusual to the temperature. It actually wasn't that hot of a summer but the amount of water in the air either must have been a record or a very near record. It was extremely high. (00:30:45) We probably then won't have that kind of a summer next (00:30:48) year. I hope we don't have a summer like this the rest of my life or anybody's life alive. That was really extremely (00:30:54) human is dew point generally considered nowadays to be the best way of measuring (00:30:59) humidity. Well, actually I myself prefer using vapor pressure or absolute humidity. The thing about dew point is very tricky in that. If you increase your dew point from 70 degrees to let's say 75 degrees that represents a much stronger increase than if you go from 40 to 45 degrees. Let's say because the warmer air gets it can hold more water vapor but it increases exponentially so dew point is actually kind of a poor way to express the amount of water in the air and if you take your dew points, let's say over the month and add them up and divide you get an average dew point, but that does not tell you the average amount of water that's in the air. You can't do it. That way you could get the same answer for average dew point from two different years and yet you could have quite a difference in the amount of water the average amount of while you had in the air the World Meteorological organization when they publish their round-the-world water vapor figures gives it in terms of vapor pressure and I wish that the weather bureau would do that, (00:32:06) too. We're just trying to Get used to do point. And now we find that maybe they'll be another (00:32:09) one coming. Yeah vapor pressure is really the way to do it. Then you have a handle on actually how much water is in the air? (00:32:15) Okay. Here's another listener with a question. Go ahead, please. Yes. Hello. I'm Paul from tuna Rapids and I'm interested in a upper air disturbance has the you ades and it seems as Lonnie forecasts are used them as a way to explain when they don't have any idea what the weather is. I wonder if you could give me a little more definitive idea what maybe if there is any real Justice to what that term? (00:32:38) Okay. It's a Whirlpool. The thing is that are blows and whirlpools and that's why we have winds anytime you're outside. You're in a win. You're in part of a big Whirlpool of are now there's a very big Whirlpool that blows all the time and that's rolls around the entire Northern Hemisphere across the United States the Atlantic Ocean Europe Asia, the Pacific and back across the United States and Canada again, and that is called it's a job breaking game circumpolar Vortex now, sir. Means Circle Paul refers to the polar regions and vortexes of fantasy world for word for Whirlpool. So the circumpolar vortex is a Whirlpool the blows around the Northern Hemisphere constantly now inside that we have smaller whirlpools, which army major storms. Now your upper air disturbance is you hear about our tinier whirlpools yet and they form in your storm whirlpools. In other words when I see a storm will blow I'm talking about something that might be a couple thousand kilometers across but your upper air disturbance these little whirlpools and form are typically maybe only let's say three four, five six hundred miles across and they may only last for one or two days they come and they go and you can see them very clearly the satellite pictures one things. They're very hard to predict because they have such small lifetimes if you consider their lifetime of perhaps two or three days, With that of a major storm Whirlpool, which lasts about maybe two or three weeks or the big Whirlpool circumpolar Vortex that lasts forever. You can see that they're there shortness makes them difficult to predict. And of course this is what causes many a good forecast to go wrong. You have a nice clear skies and everything the sun shining bright all months and clouds over it starts to rain or snow. And what you've got is one of these little tiny whirlpools. (00:34:35) So they really do have an impact in the weather bureau wasn't just spoofing when they talk about (00:34:39) them that that's the odds right? (00:34:41) Okay. Here's another listener who has a question for Bruce Watson. Hi, you're on the air. Why is it seems before a big winter storm blizzard type of thing that you get thundering and lightning? (00:34:57) Oh when you have a storm approaching you're bringing up warm wet air from the south and this error being Soulful moisture easily can develop into legally clouds can form in a thunder clouds and many times in the winter time. You'll find that when a thunderstorm does develop ahead of a snowstorm that you get some extremely heavy snow over a small area and this can cause a course that great disruption of everything but a thunderstorm in the summertime when we get one in the summertime, the precipitation lost starts out as snow and if you can imagine a thunderstorm where you get let's say one and a half inches of rain in the inside of a half hour from a sunny summer thunderstorm. All that rain is actually starting out as snow now in the winter time when a thunderstorms forms, and it's Below 32 degrees the ground the snow falls right to the ground. So that's why you sometimes get these very heavy bands of snow that are maybe only two or three miles wide and perhaps Thirty or forty miles long (00:36:10) winter time version of a thunderstorm (00:36:13) thunderstorms, right? So that's why a lot of times you'll see extremely heavy bands of snow. There's Johnny thunderstorm activity when that happens (00:36:22) another listeners waiting with the question and go ahead you're next. Hi. I'm calling from Rochester. I just have two short questions. When you say that the winner will be colder than normal. Can you have a rough idea of how much and second of all why does Rochester always seem to be colder than the rest of the surrounding area? I'll just hang up and listen (00:36:39) Okay, I expect is Winners probably going to be about I would say two degrees Fahrenheit cooler than normal. Not really a bad one. Now. Why is Rochester cooler than everywhere else? Well, there's several reasons one first, of course the Rochester weather stations located the Which is at a very high elevation as I recalled somewhere between twelve and fourteen hundred feet above sea level this High location. The the the higher you are the cooler you are in general because the atmospheric holes as we go up another reason that Rochester is cool. Probably some like there is a real Kunis has been looking into this lately that there's a cooling effect from the Great Lakes. So Lake Superior and Lake Michigan made play a part in (00:37:26) this having an effect all the way to (00:37:28) Rochester. Yeah, the the effect may go as far as Rochester because you do have both legs both Lake Michigan and Lake Superior to be (00:37:35) concerned with I notice sometimes early in the morning St. Cloud is often colder than some of these surrounding areas to (00:37:43) yeah, right? Okay. Let me just finish up in Rochester right and then we'll talk about saying claw. Rochester also is the airport is on a relatively flat plane. So the air doesn't really get extremely cold or doesn't stay extremely warm. It's not on a hill or anything. It's not in a valley. So there it is as far as to help our if he goes doesn't have much influence when you get into downtown Rochester course, it's much warmer than it is at the airport. Now St. Cloud is something else we sing cloud weather stations actually insure Bergen County. And as I recall it son Ace and plane and the vegetation around there is kind of all look a lot of pines and everything and sand generally gets quite cool because it yet it isn't like Clear Long Beach with sand it acts like insulation so you at nighttime the surface cools you A hard time feeding warm air up from the bottom. So sing Cloud being on Sand will the airport will tend to cool quite rapidly. Whereas if you're on clay or long when the surface cools off at night time you get upwelling heat from the bottom that keeps the area warmer. This is why Ham Lake incidentally so cold is because it asked Pete which e is even better installations and (00:39:15) okay, shall we take another listen to the question your next go ahead, please. Hi. I'm calling from Minneapolis and and baseness on observation in my life. I grew up in North Dakota during the Great prowess of the 30s. You might say and what I'm wondering about from my is it seems like that? That's one of the background understand the question and I was wondering whether if there is very much rainfall that has been generated because of the Missouri Valley diversion with These great little lakes that they developed. We haven't had a real drought since then. I was wondering whether local transpiration transpiration safe from those bloody is of water generated on the Missouri and the Great Lakes whether they contribute much to internal rainfall in the United (00:40:08) States. Yeah, okay, the lakes that have been generated the Missouri River actually too small to make any significant increase in precipitation except perhaps see within about five miles Lakes themselves. Basically the bulk of the water that forms our rainfall comes from the Gulf of Mexico. That's about 80% of it and about another 15 percent comes from from the Pacific Ocean and the other five percent let well in Minnesota Michigan Wisconsin would come from the Great Lakes. Now, if you get into the northeastern Minnesota into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Northern Wisconsin and the lower Peninsula of Michigan a great deal of precipitation, there is due to the great lakes and most of it actually is in the form of snow in the wintertime. There's a great enhancement of precipitation along the Great Lake Shores all five Great Lakes. So the Great Lakes are big enough but really the lakes and the decor Not big enough. They cannot Supply that much moisture, but they helped yet helps. (00:41:16) Alright, another listener has a question for Bruce Watson. Go ahead. You're on the air. Yes. I'd like to know if there is a proper direction that you should place your outdoor thermometer and also does The Heat Of The House Effect the temperature reading? (00:41:30) Okay. First of all, you want to place your thermometer that will not be at any time in the sun. Now in the summertime you have to realize the sunrise is roughly in the north east and sets in the Northwest. So that means that you only have about 90 degrees sector to operate with that is about 45 degrees either side of North so if you have a house that would be oriented with wings on it. Let's say like the Minnesota state capitol, then you would have a place to put them out of there might be quite ideal in general. What you want to do is put on the north side of the house and then have Shrubs or something that will shield it from the direct rays of the Sun in the early morning and late evening in the summertime the here the house of course will have some effect a lot will depend on which way the wind is blowing up. The wind is blowing against the house in general the heat will be kept away from the thermometer. But if the wind is blowing across the house, then that will tend to carry the heat towards the thermometer. So if you place on the North side with a south wind your temperature would tend to read too high with a North Wind at probably tend to read pretty close to the actual truth. (00:42:45) Can you give us some idea of how much one would have to spend to get a decent quality thermometer that would be accurate or doesn't really make that (00:42:52) much difference well as little as possible the cheapest thermometer can be made accurate if you calibrate it in general if you want to get one without going through any calibration, which I think most of us like to do if you spend I would think $1 even you're going In a fairly decent thermometer what I do when I buy thermometers in the story is look at the various ones that are sitting there and get one that sort of reflects the average temperature of all of them. (00:43:21) Well, what do you get then for the ones that are more expensive just fancy packaging and (00:43:26) that Co you get fancier packaging in generally bigger design. Your cheeks aren't really less expensive. Thermometers are generally small Soul size is one thing that enters in very very quickly to the increasing price in general. If I bought a thermometer, I think I want to spend about $5 and get one that is of adequate size so I can read it quite easily. Hmm. (00:43:50) Okay. It's about a quarter to 1:00. Bruce Watson is with us taking questions about whether and we do have a couple of lines open. Again 2276 thousand is the phone number for those of you in the Minneapolis st. Paul area. And if you're calling outside the Twin Cities area, we will take your collect calls at area code 612 2276 thousand. Okay. You're next. Go ahead, please. I'm calling from Moorhead. I've got to rather long questions. The first one is there's seems to be a climatic change of change around here where the winters are warmer. There's less snow. The Springs are shorter. The summers are warmer in the Falls are longer is this a fact and secondly there seems to be that the winter blizzard the come out of Colorado come through the Twin Cities go up through same Cloud Alexandria and go on towards Wisconsin and the Great Lakes bypass us. I don't feel cheated. But is that a (00:44:43) fact? Okay. First of all, let me say that as far as the storms tracking the way they do that is just about the average waited for them to track is across the eastern part of the state Moorhead will eyes west of the heavy precipitation area and for a storm to track that far west as much less common than tracking further east. Okay. Now as far as are the differences in our Winters and Summers Bangs and fast our Winters are getting warmer. Yes. I expect the next 20 Winters are going to be substantially warmer than the winters were in the 1960s and 1970s. So we shouldn't see any more of these old-fashioned Winters (00:45:25) except the coming one is going to be a little (00:45:26) bit worse. Yeah, except the coming one is not going to be anywhere near like some of the bitter cold Winters we have in the 60s and (00:45:32) 70s colder than last year but not as cold. (00:45:34) Well, it'll be calling last year and call the normal both but it won't be as nearly as cold as some of the winters that we had the 60s and 70s gave us some of our very coldest winters on record even going back in the 1880s it broke some of the record set in the 1880s. So we're not going to have a really bitter cold Winters in the next toy 20 years. Now, we could have one or two that are bitter cold, but in general they're going to be warmer than normal as far as Summers. Really? They haven't shown up to be of any really hot or cold pattern. I suppose that in recent years. We probably have had more warm Summer's than cool ones. Yes, but whether or not this is a established pattern and I don't think it is but it's something to keep an eye on but I guess that's correct that we have had Fairly warm Summer's in the last six seven years our Springs in the last few years have certainly tended to be cooler than usual and our Falls generally tend to be cooler than usual. The song has this fall didn't buy this this past fall has been warm, but in general the last six seven years before this we've had cool false. (00:46:50) We're listeners are waiting with questions for Bruce Watson. Hi, you're next. Hi. Good afternoon. I'm enjoying your program. I'm calling from st. Paul and one of one of the things that's concerned me for a long time as I plan a lot of canoe trips to the boundary. And I noticed just about every trip that I've been on going up there. There's been tremendous changes in weather and tremendous variability and I was just wondering if you could comment on some of the reasons behind that and I'll hang up and listen (00:47:15) now. Let's see. I'm not quite sure what you mean by variability. But if you mean the different variation between here and there remember that there's quite a difference in the latitude of the Twin Cities versus the lad to The Boundary Waters. You're actually going north. What if I think it's ever somewhere almost 300 miles further north. So you're actually talking about an average temperatures about 10 degrees cooler in The Boundary Waters in the Twin Cities on top of that another way to look at it. Is that the spring and fall months are each pushed ahead effectively like one month our march here. Well, I'm sorry our April here or no. Okay. No, that's right. Our march here is very much like the April up there another word. They're April's like our March and in the summertime when our November would be like their October. So there's quite a difference in the climate between here in The Boundary Waters. Yeah. It's a long ways North and if you go that far as self, you'll find that it warms up very substantially to but the average temperature difference between here in The Boundary Waters about 10 degrees. So it's a lot cooler place than it is here. (00:48:29) Let's take another call from a listener. Go ahead, please you're on the air. Yeah. I'm calling from Minneapolis and I'm still interested in the effects of the Great Lakes on local weather. I had the impression that Duluth and lower Michigan and Ethan Wisconsin are a lot warmer than it is here. Could you explain a little more detail on that? (00:48:49) Well, yes, the Lakes Act is warming mechanisms is here's the very warm water certainly keeps lower Michigan quite warm Chrysler. Is surrounded by lakes on all sides and if you look at lower Michigan when you get into January the it is substantially warmer than it is here the rest of the year the lower Peninsula has pretty much the same temperature that we do but in January and February they stay warm and I might add they stay very cloudy to you only averaged about to clock cloudy days in a place like Muskegon or Grand Rapids in January. Where as we average about one third of our days clear and they have only a couple clear. So it's a pretty warm cloudy place in the lower Peninsula. Thanks to the Great Lakes Grand Marais actually has a warmer January temperature than Twin Cities does even though Grand Marais? I mean in January, even though Gran Rey is again, we have by The Boundary Waters. We said the average difference is about 10 degrees that they're 10 degrees cooler than us. Well, this is not true. Of course a Grand Marais which sticks out onto Lake Superior. They're the lake gives them an entirely different. I meant then you get even 10 or 15 miles to the (00:50:05) West a warm spot for winter vacationers may be right. Here's another listener with a question hi-yah question. I would term ometer outdoor thermometer mounted right on a tree and it always seems like the temperature is a lot different than what's given over any news media and I was just wondering if this has something to do with the tree being alive and creating (00:50:26) Heat. Well, the difference is probably more to do your location and anything else as we said at the beginning the program normally the temperature varies quite dramatically across the Twin Cities most the time you generally will find readings. I would say on the average that the ring someone probably Twin Cities to another will be about 7 degrees different. Yeah, it's very strong. So mostly your difference is probably due to your location as far as the tree giving off heat. I suppose that could be it's all alive. So I imagine it does behave a little differently than something that's dead. But I've never really studied her. I've never really read anything about it just get could well be maybe those something off be thinking about okay babe. You piqued my interest. (00:51:13) Here's another listener with a question. Go ahead. Hello. My name is Ruth and I'm calling from Eau Claire, Wisconsin. I have a copy of Bruce's Almanac and referred to a very often in and I read that in. Team, there was an earthquake in the Staples to Brainerd area and I'm really quite interested in that. I being that it wasn't a weather book. I thought maybe it was okay to ask a little bit more about it. As far as is this the only one that we've had in this Midwest area. And also can we expect this type of thing to happen again? And I'll hang up and listen (00:51:49) Okay. You calling from Eau Claire my hometown. I don't see no clue. We've ever had an earthquake. But yes and Staples in 1917 is when the we had the worst earthquake in the history of Minnesota in general. Most of the I would say well over half the earthquakes in Minnesota have occurred in a area that is near Staples that runs from about. Oh, maybe 60 miles Southwest of Staples 260 miles Northeast of stables. That's about to 60% with her have been a few scattered earthquakes and other parts of Minnesota, but in general that's been the center of them and I guess this ties in with the ancient geology of the State that there's some kind of a fault line. There is something you might want to pick a book up on Minnesota geology to understand it more thoroughly because I'm not a geologist. But well, I guess you're interested but the thing is that yes earthquakes. Can I can a criminal so in the Stables earthquake was the worst one (00:52:45) that's just too good an opportunity to pass up a mention of another program coming up on these stations on Monday at noon the authors of a book called Minnesota geology will be here in the studios taking your questions about geology and perhaps this caller or others who are interested in earthquakes can tune in at that time. Can't remember the names of the author's but they will be here talking about Minnesota geology on Monday at noon. Here's another listener with a question on whether go ahead please - very basic question, what causes the change in Seasons? I had thought that it had to do with the elliptical path the Earth traveled around the Sun but that doesn't account for the reversal of seasons in the northern and southern hemispheres. Thank you, (00:53:26) right. This is a very Misconception a comet has it's summer in Winter determined by the elliptical path around the Sun of the words when a comment is closest to the Sun that's summer. That's the hot time on the comet. And when the Sakai Matt gets way out far away from the Sun then it has it's winter. It's very cold on the comet our climate. Our winter and summer is due to the extreme tilt of the earth. Our Earth is tilted at an angle of 23 and 1/2 degrees with respect to the plane that it makes around the Sun so that in when it's summer here in Minnesota, we are tilted 45 degrees. In fact more than 45 degrees closer to the Sun than we are in the winter. When were women the Earth is on the other side. The tilt of the earth is very very strong 23 and 1/2 degrees is a real strong tilt. And of course, it makes an enormous difference in our winter to summer variation. Just try going up a hill one senior car that says still tilted 23 and 1/2 degrees. I doubt it. Also requires could make it even in low gear 2023 half degrees is a real strong tilt and this is what causes our variation incidentally. We are close to the Sun and I think this year on January 2nd, and we're farthest away sometime around the Fourth of July. (00:54:47) All right, it's five minutes before one time for a few more questions on the weather. Go ahead you're next. Yes, my name is Amy, and I'm calling from Minneapolis. Could you tell me if air pollution affects the number of cloudy days in an area I went to school in Chicago in the winters were terribly cloudy and gray and it seems like Minneapolis is now becoming very cloudy. I'll hang up and listen to your answer. Thank you. (00:55:12) Well, maybe pollution is sorry. It's there's actually been a fairly significant increase in cloudiness due to jet aircraft when they put the contrails out this condensation that forms behind the airplane early Jets from the combustion process. This does sometimes cause the otherwise clear day to become overcast and reduces the amount of sun energy that's available. I suppose you're trying to get a tan that kind of cramped your style a little bit but that would be the main thing the main variation and our cloudiness would be due to jet aircraft as foreground pollution. Not really I think that the increase in cloudiness would be quite insignificant. (00:56:01) Here's another listener with a question. Go ahead. You're on the air. Thank you. I'm from Bloomington. I'm calling deaf to questions is the jet stream still on a as important a part of our weather as it once. Look believed and if so, how does it move from north to south and the second question is if the Earth was rotating from west to east why are the winds predominantly out of the West thank you. (00:56:25) Okay, the jet stream to begin with is nothing more than a where the circumpolar vortex that we talked about earlier is blowing the fastest any Whirlpool of error Whirlpool of water for that matter moves the fastest not in the center of the disturbance or if the edge but somewhere between so the circum polar vortex, which roughly moves over the United States and Canada from west to east is moving the fastest somewhere in the middle and we call that the jet stream every storm that hits us if you have ever known as to when a storm is coming at first, there's no wind and then the wind picks up and blows real hard and then when the Storm Center gets near us the wind dies off again. Well, that is a Surface jet around that particular storm. It's coming in the surface jet sometimes gives us the worst weather the storm. Sometimes the wind is more disruptive than any other part of the storm. But when you pour yourself a cup of coffee or a cup of tea and you stir it the tea is moving the fastest not the center of the cupboard the edge of the cup, but somewhere in between every Whirlpool of are he has this jet in it. So that's what your jet stream enters in the reason that the wind blows from west to east lies with the particular speed of the Earth is turning plus the fact that the sun is shining when you take the Earth and you have an atmosphere on it and you hit it you spin the Earth and west to east the natural consequence is a west wind blowing toward the polar regions now in the Tropics, of course, we have an East wind blowing and in order for the earth to keep turning at the same rate. We have to have the East Wind pretty much compensated by the West Wind. If the we had West went all around the earth the earth was start to turn too fast. And if we're all East Winters would stop so basically the winds throw are thrown into balance, by the way that the sun shines and the particular characteristics of the Earth's surface and the way there is turns. (00:58:29) Well. It seems like we just started Bruce in the are is already up. Thank you so much for coming in. Yeah. I (00:58:34) must say we had some excellent questions (00:58:35) today really enjoyed it and I hope that we'll be able to coerce you to come back again sometime. Okay Val great Bruce Watson Consulting meteorologist. Thanks for answering our questions today.