Joining us in our Studios now Professor Donald Baker from the University of Minnesota lease oil science department there and mr. Brian Hansen from the University's Department of geography. We're going to continue talking about climate and to end of mr. Browning's comments in particular. Dr. Baker, I don't know just where to begin except possibly to head for bed and turn on the electric blanket after hearing all that. What's what is your initial reaction to the predictions that we've heard? Well, it would have helped if I'd had an opportunity to think of this listen to this perhaps yesterday and then begin to pick out some of the data because there's number of things that One isn't I'm not prepared to answer to well now that there were some things for example. He attributed durum wheat growth in, Arizona. The implication being that this was entirely due to a climatic change. And I would suggest that genetics are perhaps as powerful or more powerful in the answer might be simply a change in the varieties or what we've been able to grow. Oh, yeah, it is indeed a scary story that he presents and he presents it with a great deal of confidence. And I this dust question is he is a very troubling one is resolved the amount and particularly the altitude at which was put into the atmosphere. And I guess he's more than a dust it might be the sulfur dioxide and the few of the other materials that are put up there the Balto. Materials that are more important as I understand it than a Shear dust itself. But and so this may well come about as he says to say at least some degree that we might experience a cooling but if I records are any good at all. And they seem to agree with what many other climatologists to put together recently is that too. In fact, the climate is increasing in the northern hemisphere, the general Global weighted average weighted mean temperature is an increase that we've seen knackering not everywhere. It isn't a like everywhere because it was due to different kind of surfaces the effect of bodies of water and so on but in general the temperatures have seeming has seemed to have been increasing from the late 60s. That is the general impression that I've had to reading things about the polar ice packs receding a little bit each year a couple of inches something like this. We have heard over the past years that there may be a greater Danger from the so-called greenhouse effect the world actually heating up in the effect that would have and now we here we hear this talk about 2 about the climate cooling off. How do you reconcile all of that? well Another point, I'd like to make before I don't know. I don't quite know how I can reconcile it with what he's saying. And with what the general impression I have is to what the the most of the climatologists seem to be seeing now, he's made his comparisons. I noticed was 1940 which is certainly all right, but one must remember that 1940 is apparently about the time when we did reach our Peak the temperature is seem to have increased in general from the 1880s. Ian up to about 1940 and this seems to have been well documented throughout the world or at least in the northern hemisphere were most of the measurements are made and then there's been a decrease from the 1940s to sometime in the sixties probably and then a general increase in does he indicated perhaps this the volcanism may or may not have had something to do with that low point in the 1880s and then because there's a relatively free. If one can associate temperature change with volcanoes, and I guess a number of people do except that. Then but there was a period when we were relatively free of Alton ISM up through about 1940. And then there was a suggestion by one of the I think Stephen Schneider of the and car out in Boulder, Colorado. It has some of his work. He stated that the decrease I beg your pardon from 1940s on was due to perhaps a change in the solar activity. Perhaps a decrease in radiation amounts. And then from 1960 late 60s or say the decade of the 70s and apparently continuing today. Is an increase which many people have attributed to increase in carbon dioxide all the admittedly one runs into troubles. When you trying to sign these events to single events such as volcanism or carbon dioxide or solar activity. It's probably a combination the number of things. Let's see. What else was I going to say here? Here in Minnesota. He didn't Kate that's rather startling decrease in the growing seasons in the he is Toledo, Ohio. He is indicated there and from Charleston. The temperature was the same in 1840 is Toronto a 1940. I wish I could check that out, but I'm unable to at the moment but any case so there's been about seventy day decrease in the growing season at Toledo from 1940 until the present. I find a most unusual, but it may have occurred. But any case here in Minnesota, we've looked at some of our agricultural station such as Morris. And I think my lamb. And probably Farmington. And because we were concerned in 1972 as result of that early Frost when I think there Frost occurred that seemingly so early in the number people began associate that with maybe a climatic change and I think it came through here about September two or three 1972 think I'm correct here while we look back into the records to see if indeed this was the earliest never occurred while it wasn't there was about three or four occasions before 1972 in the rather lengthy Mile and Montevideo to Morris in Farmington records and maybe one or two other stations when it says it had occurred as early or earlier than September two or three 1972. So we'd have to say well this one event. is knowing indication that indeed the climate is changing these these rare events apparently are more or less to be expected within what will call so-called normal climate. That there are these rare event, but nevertheless they're likely to occur and just because they do we find them occurring doesn't mean but what this is within the realm of possibilities without any major change having occurred. They don't necessarily for tell a trend know that's right. 22 minutes before they are maybe our listeners have questions they have on the subject to 276 thousand is the phone number in Minneapolis-Saint Paul in other parts of Minnesota one 800-652-9700. If you'd like to put a question to Don Baker and Brian Hansen from the University's geography Department as a geographer Brian what to what was your reaction to some of these dire predictions that we heard? Well, I would say that everything that he is predicted is going to happen could happen. There is nothing impossible in what he said that I would find it really amazing really incredible in a way that anybody could predict that particularly to the length of time that he's willing to predict things the longest forecast for which we have any skill whatsoever run about 90 days. And those are very vague. Some people would say that the limit of atmospheric predictability to the point of say predicting the collapse of the circumpolar vortex, which he mentioned is about 15 days or so. so in a sense, there's nothing wrong with what he has said accepted the confidence that heat with which he prediction is really surprising. We have a lot of listeners who have questions for you gentlemen, so let's go to our first calling out how you're on the air. That's essentially the opposite point of view of that that I've been running was talking about. How about that recent Transit senior that we have been able to find in our records dating from the late 60s. One of the suggestion has been that this is due to the so-called greenhouse effect of the atmosphere of which may be an increasing amount of carbon. Dioxide might be one element that is bringing us about. What effect would that have as a practical matter on agriculture iben Browning was talking about no more wheat production in Canada, for example, not much in in Minnesota as well. If the things turned colder things get warmer then what happens? If it gets warmer, then while we won't say anything in for the moment at least about any change in precipitation, but it would shift the growing areas North Bergen. Thank there has been some studies relative initially to what effect the SST the supersonic transport Smite have upon changing the weather as result of their frequent flights across the country and so a study was made and the Assumption being that they would put down a more or less permanent cirrus cloud cover in this might in turn decrease temperatures or they are also concerned or worried about increasing temperatures. So there might be a shift of several hundred miles now if it's shifted Norse word There's nothing wrong with that except that our primary the Corn Belt would be going out of the Prime soil areas into poor soils that we would find in central Northern, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Northern Michigan and that area where is normally the soils? Have been laid down centuries ago and are superb fact the best soil in the world and combined with the climate that we do have makes it the breadbasket of the world. So then if there is a shift northward, then probably will be working under more difficult conditions with respect to of trying to tame Equus. All right, we'll move on to our next question. I are on the are you may have been asked how about solar activity to talk about summer activities at the sunspot cycle of the sun spots at the sunspot activity cyclical Okay, sun spots is one of the favorite to reasons for climatic change and they do seem to go in a cycles of which I think there's 11 year and then a 22-year cycle and these have been measured from sometime in the late 1600s. I think the sun spots were first noticed by Galileo who discovered or built the first telescope I think and I have a very lengthy record and it seems to have a cycle of 11 and 22 years. It's fairly consistent. And so it's been a very tempting thing to try and the tribute various climatic changes particularly drawers to the sunspot cycle. And in some cases if you don't look at that particular area too closely too small an area and call it too closely as two years while at least within a given decade and you might say with in the Great Plains or mention two or three or four states, then probably you would have you be fairly successful in predicting add Rao's based upon sunspots, but here again about the best you can do is say well alright in the decade of the seventies, I would expect to some drawers to hit will say no Central Plains, but I'm not sure it might be in the Northern or the Southern Plains. And this activity. In fact, I'm not sure Brian I think. supposedly there is less heat given off by the Sun or less energy at low sunspot cycle and then maybe at the higher Sunspot Cycle if I've understood what Stephen Schneider was saying and he's modeling and then somewhere to moderate activity then we have a greater share of energy occurring And I'm not quite certain where we are in a cycle at the moment as far as it's telling us where or what we might have known another problem and I shouldn't let Brian have a chance in here. But before I am but the idea is that it's very difficult to go from sunspots to the weather at the Earth's surface at the moment. It seems to be kind of a loose correlation without any real cause and effect being able to put upon it. Yes, these are the Sunspot Cycles are often much more in the character of the solar radiation rather than the amount of energy reaching the Earth. They have can have a considerable effect on telecommunication say in the amount of radio interference coming off of the sun and the type of radiation coming in. I believe the last maximum was about 1978 which made that summer very bad summer to get a suntan because you are at higher risk of skin cancer from that and we're currently on a decline. But also those Cycles are somewhat faster than the the time frame that I even was talking about there about a quarter to one Donald Baker from the University of Minnesota and Brian Hansen from University of Minnesota with us and we're talking about climate particularly in reference to the speech. We heard earlier by Ivan Browning who predicts that this is not going to be very good part of the country for agriculture by the turn of the century at least pass the turn of the century and we have more listeners with questions high or next to call church. I'm wondering if your gation in itself is having any effect on climate changes and then the second question that I have is concerning the Southwest area where statue brownie with live currently. What are the Water Resources they're going to increase down there as result of cooling temperatures trim that he spoke often if Water Resources increased in that to Desert area with that then it does he know something. We don't know his for his crops and places to live and that's that's my Christensen. Dr. Baker. Well, it's respect the irrigation and water. Yes, it would affect the climate, but I think I'm a very very small scale. the more of the energy wood of sun's energy for example would Be consumed in evaporation invest less energy is now available to heat the soil or heat the air. But I believe that this we failed so far as far as I know and detecting any really measurable differences in the climate other than just the local climate almost immediate area where the irrigation of taking place for example, the effect of Lake Michigan or Lake Superior are very limited normally to a few miles from downwind from the lake. And they don't represent me your water sources for air masses. For example, although locally, they might be of some effect particularly in the winter time and getting the the lakes are still on Frozen. Then you get cold air coming in from the west and in Buffalo New York or perhaps Cleveland or some of these cities down when done just adjacent to the lake may be buried in snow, but of course, it's much larger than most of our irrigation areas irrigated areas. And I'm not sure about the other question something but the doctor Browning know anything about the water resources at the Southwest patient in the southwest because of this that cooling Trend and ice changes to when I am not aware of I don't remember exactly what he said about precipitation in the Southwest. Well, all I can say and in that regard is that I think that this is quite apart from anything. Dr. Browning a said I think the whole Southwest most serious thing facing that area is the water has as a resource, whatever talk about industry Urban use or agriculture. I think that the that's going to be a serious serious problem, especially with your future big increase in population. I'm wondering if there is any reading material I can wait about this weather prediction. Well, dr. Browning has I think there's at least three of his books that these have been published and I've read just the first one. I wasn't I didn't get a hold of the other tour of the one that you mentioned in the introduction. There's there's one that we mention the introduction called climate in the Affairs of man that I've been Browning is written but I think that I was trying to think maybe Brian you can think of something that perhaps is fairly popular to get a view other than for example, what dr. Browning is presented. Feeling that one can always make a stab at the public library. Well has there been a fairly selective but there have been a number of articles that I pull out the from the Journal called science. In which the whole weather talk about volcanism carbon dioxide story climatic variation sunspots changes near sore butt and so on you run across such articles and Science and then I think a very recent text book and general meteorology. Don't they normally have some kind of a background there and climatic change your reasons for it. There is one book with a more moderate view written to the popular level of climatic change and how it could affect our our resources and agriculture in particular written by person you mentioned before Stephen Schneider at the national Center for atmospheric research. That book is called the Genesis strategy. So there's a couple of suggestions for that was near we'll take our next caller now. Go ahead please you're on the air. Mid September and I guess they are pretty far off base or whether or not they are and I don't know why it's good that people make predictions but there is a social effect involves to that doesn't seem to be awesome. And I saw a lot of farmers go around agonizing about the fact that they weren't going to get their car and then and so forth and so on and it seems to have a very negative effect on have only a relative degree of reliability comments about that. Well, I think you're quite right. But sometimes you wonder about the value of forecast when we have so little confidence. Well, at least I have little confidence in it. And dr. Brown. What did he say? He's in the last 7 years. He mentioned something to figure about 80% correct? Well, I'd like to see what really has been verified. But in any case you're quite right, I think that there is a inherent to perhaps social problem being reduced by these forecast particularly those that are off days. But by the same token, I guess that you many cases the public seemingly the public or industry or some groups are asking for and demanding at least from National Weather Service or demanding them to produce increasingly more lengthy forecast more long range forecast. Yes. And by the way to I think the public is noise aware of this but they try and use another word to indicate that they have less confidence in what they're putting out. And so instead of calling it a forecast and I think they go up to 5 days for so-called forecast where they have reasonable contracts, but they'll use the word Outlook to indicate that This is something that's often. It's even experimental now, I think yesterday Brian didn't the National Weather Service put out a 90 day outlook. And so they divide the country and are there three three divisions. There's above normal below normal and normal and I'm not quite sure what constitutes about how much it has to be before they called above nor below normal in any case. It's just a kind of a rough sort of picture. 7 minutes before 1 will take another color high you're on the air. about to have the possibility that I'll start our sun is a variable star, which is non emergent trying to find out for sure that is a long. Little pulsing variables Drive, which would change the energy content from the sound up to perhaps 10% at the most and how that would have an effect Upon Our weather. I think it have dire consequences. If it is very Billy was at Great and there has been no suspicions that there are variations in the radiation from the Sun and I guess so far. This has been particularly in the very very short wavelengths. And one of the problems until we established satellites Aloft was that you had to make your measurements at the Earth's surface though, even though you might be in the Mountaintop. There was still so much atmosphere up there. That one had to interpolate actually what was being received now, I don't know yet. But there is any satisfactory radiation device on the side lights and if they're indeed is why certainly the record is still too short to tell us very much. It's a matter of really long term variability in the hole. Of scientific instrumentation about the last three hundred years is really very short compared to the length of the variation in solar output that you're probably talking about. The range of 10% is dr. Baker mentioned is quite High. A 10% decrease in solar output is according to most current models be sufficient to cover the entire Earth with ice and that is a very stable situation which sort of indicates that if that had ever happened. We would not be here. So that we may not be terribly off but not terribly accurate them. At least the range of 10% mentioned is probably quite High how many we can fit in in the four minutes or so. We have left your next going across the winter plateaus having an effect on the length of the growing season is the fact that there is so much of this signaling on from what I hear and if that's the case. Is there a time or what the sentence is going on too long to change the tillage practices to you know, change it turn this around. Thank you. Now that's a good question the interesting one. Let's see how I don't know quite where to start. Tillage practices are being changed and changed I think rather dramatically and rapidly and I think all of these changes that are that are being suggested and being adopted by the farmers rather rapidly, which I think, under the general term minimum tillage or reduced tillage and so on are all recognition of this fact that we've have to save a very valuable resource now with respected dust itself. It seems to be a natural a source of nuclei in the atmosphere around which for example drop let's gather or moisture in the atmosphere condenses around and so they serve as a cloud droplet nuclei and there are natural things. But of course, we don't want too much to that up their butt. I guess the idea of somebody suggested. Well, did it rain as much in in the formerly before man? Put up too much dust in the atmosphere while they were natural fires, which provide these nuclei as well as natural dust storms and a rosian and Salon. So I probably was as much rain as there is today, although today. We might have at least in lower levels a little more dust than and these nuclei than in the upper levels than under previous or so-called more natural conditions. I think we have time probably for one more caller. Go ahead, please you're on the air. Howard ruff I see both of our guest Spanish writing their shoulders on that one. No, I'm afraid I wouldn't care to Hazard a guess at this point is too if we might have such a storm this winter. Shall we try one more? I think we've got time to see if we can fit in one more call. Go ahead, please. I'm in hiding brownies taping the dimensions of a magnetic effect. That was formerly over England causing a little ice age now is over Chicago. What's that a reference to? I'm sorry. I don't think I can help you. You mean what reference material or Source material? Could he? I know he use don't get your listener use. I'm sorry. I can't help you. Well on that note gentlemanly, we will say thank you very much for joining us. Dr. Baker professor of soil science at the University of Minnesota and Brian Hansen from the University of Minnesota geography Department earlier in the hour. We heard from Ivan Browning at climatologist who lives in Albuquerque, New Mexico, if you're interested in in weather in climatology will call your attention to our Saturday noon the program on December 18th, when Minnesota climatologist Bruce Watson will be here independent meteorologist, and we'll have some interesting things to say and we'll answer your questions during or noon hour show on December 18th.