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[WINDS HOWLING] LEIF ENGER: Listen carefully and you can hear it, the slow whisper of broken ice moving on Mille Lacs. Picture a glacier's worth of ice cube's, each cube weighing tons, and a good straight wind to keep them stirred.

JOE FELLEGY: When the wind came up this morning, an east wind, the sheet had some room to move.

LEIF ENGER: Joe Fellegy is a longtime fishing guide and Mille Lacs historian who lives on the lake's northern shore.

JOE FELLEGY: Once the Mille Lacs ice sheet starts to move, of course, you've got a lot of momentum. Many, many tons of ice, a couple of hundred square miles of ice. Naturally, that means a little crunching, and grinding, and piling up before things stop.

LEIF ENGER: This is late in the year for crunching and grinding. Fellegy says, he's seen Mille Lacs covered with safe ice as early as Thanksgiving though that's unusual. This sort of year, a freeze up followed by a December thaw can create hazards for ice fishermen well into January.

Ice chunks of different thicknesses might all drift into one bay, for example. So while it looks consistent on the surface, some sections might hold a small car or pickup truck and some not. Tim Smalley is the DNR's water safety specialist.

TIM SMALLEY: Ice is like trying to judge-- look at a cloud at the bottom and trying to judge how thick a cloud is. It's the same way with ice. You can't tell by looking at it if it's thick enough to walk or drive over. Unfortunately, there are people who try to strikeout on their own and so on and-- pay the ultimate price for it.

LEIF ENGER: Last year, Smalley says eight people died through the ice in Minnesota. Four years ago, after a warm fall similar to this one, there were 22. The tricky ice has most fishermen staying away from their favorite lakes so far and that's good. But for resort workers like Tom [? Roulle ?] at Mille Lacs Roll-In Lodge, the price of safety and warm weather is a long, expensive wait.

[? TOM ROULLE: ?] Well, last year, by this time, we had houses out. We had a lot of rentals out.

We had a lot of privates out already on the 7th of December. You never know, but from the looks of it right now she's going to be a late one this year. And it's going to hurt the resorters up here.

LEIF ENGER: This resort, for instance, rents out 25 of its own fish houses and collects fees for storing and moving about 80 more that are privately owned. [? Roulle ?] says the lodge stands to lose upwards of $6,000 a week until the ice is safe and fishermen began heading for Mille Lacs by the hundreds again instead of by 2s and 3s.

NORBERT SKAJA: This is the first time I'm out this fall and this is the first place I've been at.

LEIF ENGER: OK, well. Out on nearby Wigwam Bay, Norbert [? Skaja ?] is angling now through about 6 inches of ice. Skaja is up from the cities and well out on the bay taking his chances waiting for a nibble.

[? NORBERT SKAJA: ?] Perch and walleye.

LEIF ENGER: Perch or walleye.

NORBERT SKAJA: But there might be a northern and there might be an eelpout.

LEIF ENGER: Norbert points away to the east where a few hundred yards distant lies open water. It's a sight, he says, that keeps him watchful and mindful of the time years ago when he had to scoot off the ice in a hurry.

NORBERT SKAJA: A few years back on Pike Point, we could see them sheets of ice just shooting in the air, 20 feet through the air.

[CHUCKLES]

We had 8 inches of ice down here on the Bay too, but it still buckled.

LEIF ENGER: Back at the lodge, Tom Roulle says, the thing about winter is you know it'll happen sooner or later. But on Mille Lacs where a sturdy winter means sturdy business, you hope for sooner.

[? TOM ROULLE: ?] This area up here depends on good ice, depends on good weather. Weather will kill you and it's definitely hurting this year.

LEIF ENGER: Tom [? Roulle ?] at the Roll-In Lodge on Lake Mille Lacs. This is Leif Enger.