I'm Andy Tchaikovsky president of Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Minnesota. It's a pleasure to welcome all of you to the Minnesota meeting today. We also extend a welcome to the radio audience throughout the Upper Midwest who are hearing this program on Minnesota Public Radio. Broadcasts of Minnesota meeting are made possible by the law firm of Oppenheimer wolf and Donnelly with offices in Minneapolis. St. Paul and major cities in the United States and Europe. Minnesota meeting is a public affairs form which brings National and international speakers to Minnesota members of Minnesota meeting represent. This communities leaders from corporations government Academia and the professions Minnesota meeting is pleased to present today's Speaker John murrow's president of the institute for East-West security studies. We'll discuss the dramatic changes occurring in the Eastern Bloc in the effect of these changes on the US and its allies. In his address the walls come tumbling down missed him Rose will discuss the present situation in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union having just returned from a four-week visit to Moscow. He spent time with the Council of ministers and with opposition groups as well and had an opportunity to learn fat firsthand of the many developments that are taking place. Mr. Morrow's consulted with top-level Soviet government officials at their request as they restructure their National political economic and security systems following his visit to Minnesota. Mr. Melrose is scheduled to participate in a high-level consultation on the reunification of Germany. Is working closely with the emerging leaders of east Europe giving him an Insider's view of the remarkable events occurring now and future developments that may profoundly affect the global Marketplace. Following his presentation questions will be addressed in the audience. Please use the cards at your table to jot down questions for discussion Gary Gilson a Twin Cities writer and broadcaster and Jane Murasaki executive director of the Minnesota meeting will move among you to manage the question and answer session. It's now my pleasure to present you John roll. It's nice to be back and I understand that I have to do a particularly good job today because I'm one of the few people who has been invited to second time here. I hope that what I said the first time which was several years ago was not too far off beat, but let me try to guide you on a tour quick tour. First of all of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union and try to provide a framework for analyzing A tremendously rapid changes that are taking place in this part of the world changes which will have already and will dramatically affect our country and many of our businesses and our personal lives. Let's start maybe first in Eastern Europe and then go to the Soviet Union at the end. I believe that three of the countries of Eastern Europe have now clearly crossed the Divide have crossed the line will not move back. These are countries that will move into a market economy countries that will have Democratic pluralistic political systems countries that will be culturally and in other ways part of the the broader western-oriented World System economic political and social these are Poland Hungary and Czechoslovakia. Although there will be many bumps on the road for these three countries in terms of economic dislocations unemployment social problems. It is I believe that these three have clearly crossed the divide the Soviet Union in my view will withdraw all of its troops from Czechoslovakia and from Hungary and will withdraw most of its troops from Poland. The Polish government is not in favor of a complete withdrawal of Polish troops until there is a resolution a final resolution of this border issue with Germany the Soviet Union will in my belief remain, excuse me, you mean with the will remain with the Polish government in providing some troops particularly along the border area in that country moving along we have the perhaps the greatest single country of instability is Romania. It is totally unclear. What is going to happen to Romania Romania right now. Could Veer sharply to the right and have @ l @ Aryan right-wing government, it could also break down into an anarchic all situation or it could move gradually and slowly to something resembling democracy. And I remind you that the road to democracy is a painful one when we achieved our national independence from the British in 1776. You remember that we chat. We had a long National debate before our Constitution was adopted in 1789 about what kind of democracy we wanted to be and maybe here I'll inject one of my major concerns about what is happening particularly in the Soviet Union in the Balkans, but also in some ways and Central Europe and that is that democracy which is a very powerful and and the clearly the best form of government. It has many variations and that some forms of democracy are very unfair for example to minorities personally. I would not want to be a minority in this part of the world for this decade because I think we're going to see a great deal of difficulties and I'd be glad to answer questions on this. the after my remarks but in Romania, we have a situation where clearly people have no concept of what democracy means and there's a very painful process now underway major vying for political power for basic determination of which way the system will go Bulgaria is interesting Bulgaria is perhaps the fourth country that may cross over the line This depends very very much on what happens in the Soviet Union the leadership of Bulgaria, which overthrew the Hardline leadership back in November is committed to moving towards a multi-party system and will very much follow the current Gorbachev model if allowed to in fact to do so, they will not however follow for example, the shock economic methods being implemented in countries like Poland the people there are quite conservative and having just come back from several days in Sofia and talking with the opposition leaders the and by the way, here is a case where the government the Communist party leader the head of the government asked for a whether my Institute would help train the anti-communist opposition forces. Now this seems very strange. Why would the head of the Communist Party asked to train the head of the opposition forces and the reason is very interesting because as the as these former communist parties Form, they need to have a left wing and a right wing now. Let's stop for a moment and make sure we all understand what left-wing and right-wing means especially with business groups people. Look at me strangely when I describe left-wing as people who favor market economies political Democratic pluralistic societies these kinds of values that is in communist terminology. That is the left. That is the left and when I talk about the left we have to remember the left of the people who believe in a lot of the value systems that we hold here. They're right are their ideological rigid the system isn't that bad? We don't want capitalism. We don't want multi-party political political systems. So let's remember what left what left and and right means but what's interesting is in a country like Bulgaria. They see very much what Gorbachev has done very very smartly and that he has positioned himself in a sense in the middle. Although he is on the left side in terms of Reform. He has got people to his left and this Yeltsin why understand address Minnesota meeting people like that, but he also of course has a very strong right side people like ligature off and summon the Army and others who were very strongly opposed to reforming the system. So what the Communist leadership in Bulgaria was saying is we need an effective left. We need an effective left which we don't have and by the way having met the opposition leaders of Bulgaria. I will agree that they do not have they do not have a group that really understands how to move to political power. Let me give you an example when we were talking to the Bulgarian opposition leaders the anti-communist opposition leaders recently. We asked the question. What is their platform? When are they going to release their what they stand for where is their political platform and we were told well, we can't announce this yet. The elections are in may we can't announce this yet? Because well because if we put out an idea like privatizing agriculture, you know, these these Communists are going to are smart enough that they're going to take that and they're going to implement it and therefore we're not going to get any of the credit and my colleague and I said, but that's terrific. The whole idea what could be better in opposition than to get your every idea. You'll put up adopted immediately by the party in power. That's the whole concept of opposition and we were told no you're completely no you don't understand we have to take over power first. We need to gain power. Once we gain power. Once we control the government. Once we control everything then we'll put we'll put these policies into effect and believe me all the hours of talk couldn't get through to that. We also had a great time there were six of them and they were trying to decide what language they would talk to us in they refused to talk to us in Russian. We didn't speak Bulgarian. They didn't know English three of them knew French one new German we ended up deciding they would speak to us and French and their people would translate the French into Bulgarian for their people and was the most unbelievable thing. And so now I understood when the head of the country in the head of the Communist party there, which is shortly going to change his name to the Socialist Party why he said would you please help go in there and train these characters so that we have an effective. I need an effective left-wing opposition and this is the kind of Give that as an example Bulgaria not many Americans know much about Bulgaria. By the way, the bulgarians would love to be adopted by us. They've said that you know, now that the Germans are clearly going to take over East Germany the United States might as well have a special relationship with them like we do with their neighbors turkey and Greece but it's interesting to try to understand the inside of what is happening and to make sense out of sort of the trends of what's taking place. Of course, the biggest question in the biggest problem is Germany and I say it's a problem and this, you know, when walls come tumbling down as the name of this speech is supposed to be there's always good news and bad news and the you remember the euphoria that we had in this country and in the west generally within in November when the wall was coming down and everything said this is wonderful and Germany will reunify. Well today people are standing back at a lot of people are not so happy. The polls aren't happy. The French aren't happy. The Russians are not happy. Lots of people are not happy. Now everyone agrees that there's nothing we got side of Germany can do To stop integration of the two germanies. And in fact, there's nothing we can even do to slow down. Mr. Mitchell Ron and mr. Gorbachev back in December when they made their joint statements about slowing down the process of integration realize that within 24 hours. They had propelled integration in both Germany's that the more you try to control it the more you're going to make it go even faster. And therefore there is now a resignation in the Soviet Union among their top leadership including the military as well as in the in Washington. And in the rest of the capitals of the world that nothing can be done to prevent German integration. Now, I'm one level German aggression and it's a possible scenario could all go very peacefully could be a process and and could could take time and be integrated stabili. Negotiations could be done. The four powers could reduce their troops presence in the to Germany's and things could all be happily. We could all live happily ever after that's one scenario. Unfortunately, the way events are moving that may not be the scenario that's going to happen. And what is happening? What is happening is Is the imminent collapse of the German Democratic Republic you have even had the leader of the gdr. Mr. Macho of who was said that the gdr is no longer a governable country people have questioned whether or not it has any of the conditions or for stability of a state what you have now is a headlong Rush towards the towards integration. And the reason why the elections in East Germany were moved up to March 18th are supposed to be in May was was to help stem the tide. It's like the dike that the damn that's about to burst and you're running up throwing more sacks of saying next to it. Hoping that it won't burst but everybody knows that sooner. It's just a matter of time before it burst. Now what happens when it does burst. That's what nobody knows that's what we don't know. What is going to happen. When you see a Resurgence of German nationalism. Will you see a situation? Whereby the the to Germany's decide to unite and tell the foreign powers to leave and maybe even go neutral. Is there a possibility of German Germany leaving NATO? What is the scenario of what's going to happen in the Union there is a debate beginning which is not been reflected in our press but which is quite interesting when you're over there and that is the question of who lost Germany many of you may remember in the McCarthy period there was a who lost China who lost China refrain which which stirred up a lot of what then became the McCarthyism period there are many people in the Soviet Union who are in fact the vast majority of the population who are not happy with the prospects of a unified very rich politically powerful and possibly a state that may even go nuclear. This is the perception they have that's the kind of Germany which course Europe European powers for many many centuries of many decades and centuries have tried to prevent from happening. And so there are a lot of fears which have now Arisen Poland is concerned about its borders Czechoslovakia. So the issue of the Germany's has become perhaps the single dominant issue and I think we're going to face something as dramatic this year as what happened last year. What is going to happen. Nobody quite knows how is it going to happen? We also don't know. You could have millions of people taking to the streets in Leipzig in the fall. We had 500,000 or more people in the streets and a city of six hundred thousand population. That's just about every member of the adult population in the streets. They did in a very dramatic way. They worked all day until 5:00 and they started their they started their demonstrations at five o'clock. But nonetheless they did do it and you had almost the entire population out on the streets. Now that could happen or the new Parliament when it's elected could simply democratically vote that they want and they want immediate reunification and who knows what who knows what they're capable of doing. So these are the kinds of real problems we faced with Germany. I better move over now to the to the Soviet Union. I'm going to try to leave open lots of areas for you to ask questions in on the Soviet Union what we have and we've all been reading what's happened. The last few days is an unfinished Revolution. We are truly in the middle of a revolutionary cycle. Let me talk first about Gorbachev. What motivates Gorbachev is usually the first question. That I get asked wherever I go in Europe or here or even in the Soviet Union people see people saying how does one analyze what motivates Gorbachev. What's the what is it that drives him? Well, I think just like we had a Reagan one and a Reagan to in the two administrations. I think we're getting we're seeing a Gorbachev one and the gorbachov to and I think we've just finished the Gorbachev one it's hard because they don't have the same kind of Divisions that we have terms of office. But let's say that what was Gorbachev one Gorbachev one was a man who clearly understood he that his vision his role. Was that the Soviet Union had to have a new Peter the Great as I put it someone who's watching the greater world around him who saw what was happening in terms of economic conditions in the world about technology a man who was deeply affected according to his advisors by the experience of the newly industrialized countries. It was one thing if Germany and the United States could far outstrip the the so Union but it was another thing when Singapore and Taiwan and Hong Kong we're better able to compete in technology and economic competition and to be a viable part of the new world economy. It was a Mikhail Gorbachev who saw the disintegration of his country who bought into the vision of and drop off who saw the disintegration of the Soviet Union and who saw the fact that the Soviet Union had to be modernized brought in in fact to The Next Century and as Peter the Great some of you who know the history of the Soviet Union, you know, the way Peter the Great saw his role this was very much the way I characterize Mikhail Gorbachev's role in his first term. Now what happened during the past during the past five years, it'll be five years in March that he that he formally took over although he was influential for period before that during this period Gorbachev undertook a number of dramatic reforms, you know about glass nosed about perestroika many many things that he did new thinking in foreign policy the results of which far exceeded his expectations and this is not just my guess. It's based on very very lengthy. Discussions with the people who are closest to him that for example in he has said publicly for example on some of these issues. He had no idea that the nationality and ethnic issue would race ahead as it did once he had gloss nose. Once people were allowed to talk about these their situation would the would the the uncontrollable force of nationalism run rampant, which it has been doing. He had no idea that demands for secession would come so quickly. He had no idea for example in Eastern Europe that it would that it would disintegrate so quickly he knew he was beginning a process which would which would allow Eastern Europe to move their in their own directions, but he had no idea for example in East Germany that that the the the krenz the man who replaced Honaker last year would be would lose power within a matter of weeks. This was not in his game plan. And so I we could take almost every area of what he tried to do what he did in the economy the forces he Unleashed in the economy all of these forces all brought about unintended. The intended consequences now today you have a Gorbachev who is who has a who has I think a much who's become a tactician rather than the strategist. He understands that you have to follow the mood of the people. And by the way, Europe, all of Europe is now in a period where you have unpredictable masses that are really controlling leaders. We used to worry about unpredictable leaders. Now, we have unpredictable masses that basically are deciding as the Cold War has ended as the as the the walls have tumbled down of the traditional way. We've been dealing with things they now believe that they can move forward into and to do things. What is Gorbachev doing well back in November. He began his first clear indication of where he stood where he was going to take the Soviet Union next and that was the area of multi-party. Why did he accelerate this week his the issue of the multi-party that this meeting this past week was supposed to have dealt largely with private property, but he learned during the period of November December that he was not going to get his way on the private property issue. To the party unless in fact, he turned his attention first to the party itself in article 6 of The Constitution and the idea of the leading role of the Communist Party. Would he be able to try to beat become the president of the Soviet Union rather than just the his major power base which has been the party role and so Gorbachev, I believe has shown his stripes. He is a man who I think still would like to lead the Communist party, but he will lead whatever party it takes to continue moving the Soviet Union into the line of his vision, which is to modernize and to and I believe also to democratize the the Soviet Union, but the problem he's God and you know, we all now know he had a victory yesterday, but but it was but it was a very difficult and painful Victory and it's only the first step he is he is now in his most difficult period between now and August in my in my view and I'll try to explain to you why the vast majority of the Soviet people have not spoken yet. This is a very important thing to remember there is a huge silent majority and the term is To be used by the Soviets themselves in the in the Kremlin that there is a huge silent majority in the Soviet Union we estimated as at least 60% of the population. These are people who have not spoken yet. These are people who are waiting who are watching. These are people who many of whom are happy that some of the bad sister ideas of the past some of the the problems of the past have been addressed but there are also people who are not happy with the current situation they are they're torn and you can feel this and you can see it in the poles of the new public opinion Center, which is run with yankelovich and gallop and is very effective. You can see that the people are really very much the majority of people are in the middle when there are when some of our news media presented Sunday's demonstration in Moscow as an example of how this rapid fire program, which off democratization is spreading throughout the Soviet Union. They ignored certain things. First of all the number and whether it was a hundred thousand is the New York Times said or 250,000 is Los Angeles Times said on the same day is not so much as important as who were these people. Kind of enthusiasm. Did they have in Moscow? I'm not knocking the demonstration. It was a very importance. It's particularly symbolic gesture of support for gorbachov, but we have to go beyond the numbers and the Euphoria and to look at who was there what signs were those people carrying their were anti-semitic signs in that group there were signs for Ukrainian nationalism. There were signs for Baltic nationalism. There were no signs for ecological groups. There were signs for everything you can possibly imagine and people we've talked to say there was no passion in that crowd. These were people who were largely walking standing a few were singing but it was not a passion crowd. It was not as some people have portrayed it here. I believe the signs of a mass movement of people enthusiastically running in One Direction and I think that it's important to look carefully at what really is the situation in the Soviet Union. What does Gorbachev relief Ace and what I'm going to tell you is not a news flash for him, but it but it may be some some surprise to some of you the Soviet Union is very much divided. Approximately 20% of the population believing in reform another 20% firmly anchored against it which by the way is close to our Hardline conservative group. If you look at it, I'm told by pollsters that you can look at a hundred years of amount of American of the polls in the United States and then it shows that we consistently have a card core of 20 to 25 percent of people who identify in our conservative fundamentally conservative about foreign policy domestic issues and no matter who was in power FDR or Ronald Reagan. They maintain salt their solid base the Soviet Union has something very similar, although they have no polling to show over a period of years, but there is when we can tell this by looking at the composition of the Supreme Soviet, we can tell this by a number of factors one can look at and analyze but let's say roughly 20% are on either side the left and the right now Gorbachev is facing an opposition now which is which has decided that it's Do or Die the hardliners in the Soviet Union have come together in a very kind of a strange head. As Coalition there is no leader to Gorbachev more importantly for him. The opposition has no program which the silent majority believes is a viable program, but they're waiting and we're going to see what happens and I'll give you my predictions at the end in a few minutes, but let's talk a little bit about the opposition who's against Gorbachev and why this hard line group of some twenty percent is divided itself into different groups. You have the largest single group are people who want to preserve The Prestige and power that's not surprising. These are bureaucrats. These are people who have had a powerful powerful role the lot of advantages and Society that's not surprising and a lot of the silent majority is somehow tied Sons daughters daughters in law sons-in-law of those people. The number is probably close to 60 million people in the Soviet Union have a vested interest in not seeing a switch in power in the power system because they will someone either they or someone close to them will lose will lose dramatically, but you have other groups to you have a small group which is just ideologically rigid. They believe in communism. They Even Lenin they believe that the Communist party is the only way they are against capitalism and everything that goes with it. Then you have another group which are people who were highly nationalistic. This is an interesting group. And this is one of the groups to watch because this is the group this is the group that could become a major a major problem for Gorbachev and I'll explain why these are people who are disgusted with a disintegration of their country. These are people when you talk to them who's who in these are party officials. These are Military Officers. These are School teachers. These are different kinds of people who say my God our society is breaking down. This is this is awful. Everything is falling apart, you know, the country is blowing apart. We're sending troops into Azerbaijan into our own Republic's people are killing each other in the streets. The murder rape all kinds of crime are running rampant. The first night that I was in Moscow as a guest of the leadership of the government are windshield with the windshield was gone from our car. I mean literally the whole windshield it was like in the Bronx Is this the whole you park your car and you may or may not have a windshield when you come back. I mean I have anything but you may not have a windshield and everybody was calm about it. They say well this is you know, this this is what's going on that probably got 800 rubles on the black market. Well this this kind of mentality that you can't walk grandmother cannot take her grandchildren at five o'clock in to Gorky Park. Now that is not surprising for a New Yorker because we know what Central Park's like at night, but for a muscovite, this is absolutely deadening. I don't know how many of you have read Russian literature you've read goggle or to gain you for Dostoevsky or Tolstoy. You'll know that the Russians have this concept of the soul and what you hear from all levels in the Soviet Union is this this terrible lamenting over the fact that that Law and Order is breaking down here that that you know, you have you here literally grandmother saying I can't even walk my children anymore and to Gorky Park and it hurts their soul that may sound funny to some of you as because Americans don't think in terms of that way, but in the Russian character, it's a very very powerful force. So you have this perception that I would not only is the Economy worse and the economy is much worse for the average citizen which is not surprising in order to make radical reforms things have to you're going to have dislocations and disruptions things have to get worse before they get better. But putting that aside the economic side you have this breakdown of Law and Order then of course, you have the classic collapse of Eastern Europe people are for the first time openly criticizing including a lot of important people are criticizing foreign policy. They're saying what is this new thinking? What is this common European house? As one one gentleman said to a said to me very powerful person and he said to me, you know, what's wrong with Gorbachev that he either intentionally or unintentionally is destroying the genetic code of our society and I said to him what is the genetic code of your Society have you analyzed and he said, of course we know what it is. It's respect for authority the power of the army the KGB it's ministerial control its you know, all the things we like about the Soviet Union we have like for so many years and then he then he leaned over to me and in a whisper. He said to me and you know, what's most upsetting. To me. It's I said, what's that? He said if he manages to destroy our genetic code, we may not be able to recreate it. And I thought no that's a sad news. But but but the the I mean, but he really in the guy was sincere. He was absolutely sincere to him. This was a disaster absolute disaster. He said no one respects the Army anymore and I said, well, what do you expect when an 18 year old German can land his plane in Red Square, you know and you should hear the Russian jokes about that one at dinner parties. Our air defenses are so good. And the fact that it was a German and he was under age was really was just imagine what the luftwaffe can do, you know, if if that's if that's a nice sign and it has they had been discredited largely discredited about about what is what is happening. And so you have this feeling by people people don't have hope and Gorbachev has also fueled this by and I'm obviously a pro gorbachov guy, but I'm just I'm trying to paint for you the difficulties. He's facing the battle is far from over this this new Gorbachev to this first this first scene of the First Act of the new Gorbachev volume it which is just Artists started this week. This is this is going to be his grave. He's great time. Now. Let's talk a little bit in the five minutes. I've been told to stop in five minutes. So let me see if we can if we can do that. The spirit is willing the the let's talk a little bit about what's likely to happen What scenarios are going to happen? Because I know if I don't say this, that's what most of the questions are going to be. Let's start off by talking about a scenario that gorbachov. Let's look at the next six months. This is his critical period he has to get through the summer now, that doesn't sound too bad, but he's going to face some big obstacles on the way. Let me just give you examples of the kinds of obstacles and he's got the economy. He's got the crime problem. He's got all these issues which are just ongoing and nothing we can do can really change that but what else has he got? Well, he's going to have strikes massive strikes the spring and summer the miners are definitely going to go out on strike as they did last summer, which you remember caused the big crisis last July why the miners going to go out on strike, by the way, because they haven't been given most of what they were promised last time. And September and it's very strange. You would think that Gorbachev and his people would be rushing headlong into meeting the demands of those of those miners so that the so that they don't go on strike. But there you have a very interesting debate within the bureaucracy of those who say yes. Sure. Let's give them everything they want. You know what they're going to do. They're going to go on strike again for more and then everybody else is going to go on strike saying wow, look they got what they wanted. That's the kind of mentality that you have that you've got by very powerful people very powerful people among people at the very top part of the Soviet Union. So you have a real problem with are going to go on strike and that will cause problems the railroad workers are probably gonna go on strike and as you know, the Soviet Union doesn't have an interstate system and they rely on their railroads overwhelmingly in a way we can't imagine for moving of goods and peoples and here you have another situation the Army may have to be called out to run the railroads that kind of thing. Then you have the Hardline these these right-wing activists particularly the Nationalist who are saying, you know, we're thinking we're going to organize in the Russian Republic which is the biggest most important Republic in the Soviet Union. Organize our own strikes are strikes are going to be more nationalistic and flavor. They're going to be the you know that we're disgusted with the way this country is falling apart. We want stronger leadership. We want more effective leadership. We you know this kind of thing these May overlay The Miner strikes the railroad strikes and lots of other things happen. So this is going to be to me that perhaps the major test for him. Can he get through that period the collapse of East Germany the total collapse of these Germany would be depending on how it happens could have enormous problems could cause enormous problems for for Gorbachev in ways that I think all of you can probably understand so that these kinds of issues of things which could which could happen. There's a whole series of these events and you have right now a major counter-offensive by the by the right wing they are battling because they know that if they don't do this by September and in their own words Gorbachev will be around for five more years so that the critical period that they are going to have to go through is this period now what what what a Gorbachev Worry about the first thing they worry about is a plane crash because the easiest thing for the opposition to do would be would be exactly that that was usually the role of the KGB. They did it with great Precision for a number of years. They haven't had practice lately as much but it's not impossible that could happen. Well how it happens whether it gets hit by a bus or his plane crashes is of course the greatest fear of most of the reformers when soccer off died. The right wing said the death of that the his death started the Bell tolling that it's time for those who are real Russian nationalist to stand up and to and to oppose Gorbachev dismantling of the Soviet Union. This this is this is sort of a very critical period where now we're now entering Gorbachev is a brilliant tactician. He doesn't know how to use power. He does still have the support of the majority of the of the Army and the KGB he has to maintain that support and that is well. I'll end with just what I think the United States can do. I think that we we have to obviously go on with our long-term projects about developing a trade agreement. Soviet Union doing a lot of the other things in Arms Control. I think we can reduce our troops substantially. I believe I think Jim Schlesinger's number of 75,000 is Perhaps. It is perhaps a realistic number personally and this is based on a lot of analysis and discussions with with a lot of our top military people at the Institute and with NATO people and others that we can move in that direction so we can continue the arms control and reduction process, but I think there's some practical things we have to do sooner and the facing this period the six to eight-month period of real challenge to Gorbachev is I think does mean that the people of the United States and of the West should try to help in other ways. What can we do one thing in a practical way we could do it would be to help him Shore up his position with his army would be to curtail to stop or suspend. The perhaps is the best word suspend the shipments of arms to the Afghan insurgents to the mujahideen for six months. They have a significant Supply already. This would not put them out of business, but it would be a demonstration of practical. In which Gorbachev could use in his relationship with the Army which is his crew has two critical relationships. The Army in the KGB is the first one that relationship and the other one is with the masses of people if this big silent majority of people decides to do something decides to to go with the populist politician or decide either for or against what Gorbachev's trying to do this, these are the two greatest challenges that he that he faces and I think we can also use our influence which is considerable with the lithuanians and others in the Baltic states to basically encourage them to cool their jets during this period to lower their profile because this is one of the things that's inciting the Russian the Russian nationalist these people that are that are forming this tactical alliance with the hardliners for nationalistic reasons, which could cause Gorbachev enormous difficulties. If there were massive network of strikes in the rsf are this this spring Gorbachev would be under the worst crisis of his of his entire period so these are the you know, A series of things like that, which the United States can do which are not costly to us which can be done which would help Gorbachev in the critical relationship, which is his relationship with the military and the and the KGB. I see my time is up. There are a few other things when we all try to weave them into questions and answers am I optimistic or pessimistic? I guess you can judge from my from my tone that I am concerned about the current situation the issue of Germany the issue of possible Anarchy or problems in the Soviet Union, but on the other hand when you live through a revolutionary period one has to be exhilarated. I think we have to look for a sitter the series of options of what might take place and prepare ourselves for dealing with it, but I'm an optimist by nature and I believe that that will come through this and it's going to be a very different world that are that not we used to say our children. Hopefully, we'll know a different world. I think for all of us here. We're going to know different world. Thank you. On the station's of Minnesota Public Radio, you're listening to John murrow's president of the Institute of East-West security studies based in New York City. We're going to take questions from the audience now. Mr. Rose, I'm the talking about Germany. That is a great problem worry of mine also and what I hope and I'm hoping that you'd have some inside info or feeling about how they might if you Germany unifies East-West wouldn't they wouldn't their major concept be to help all of Europe unify East-West and help the Eastern Europeans enter the economic Union of Europe and so on. Should I answer these question my question is? Okay. Yes on that. Of course. That's the scenario in the hope that a lot of us have is the Germans will use their tremendous economic might and their political clout to help bring about a total change in the East-West competition and a new to create a new type of Europe. What people are worried about is that the situation could get out of hand and Germany and could you could have a Resurgence of German nationalism and you could have this feeling that you know, we are the leader and we don't want to be one among equals. We want to be the leader in East European countries. For example, if you go now to Poland or Bulgaria or Romania these countries they are extremely unhappy by what's happening with the two germanies. Why because they see that the money they were going to get from Germany the attention they were going to get from Germany is now going to go to East Germany. And in fact, this is already happening. There are German corporations that were going to invest in other parts of Eastern Europe are even in Western Europe in countries, like Spain for Greece that are now changing their plans to build new factories and up. Nations in Dresden or Leipzig or other other Potsdam other places in East Germany, so it's just it's that's the goal. What you say is absolutely right, but the worry many people have now is the fact that the Germany may choose to go its own path. And this is this is the question of how do you deal with that? And how do we try to reassure and to encourage the Germans both German people's the all the Germans to to do this as part of a process over time and as an integrated deal for all of Europe. Thank you. John a question for Matthew little What impact if any do you think that dramatic changes in Eastern Europe will have or is having on the situation in South Africa or is there any correlation whatsoever and the to it's still we're beginning to see correlations of what's happening in Eastern Europe with certain areas of certain areas of the world particularly them right now the Middle East is the first one where it's clearly going to have the Soviets have told the syrians that they no longer can count on them in the time of crisis with with the with the Israelis or anyone else. There's also been problems with arms flow and arms shipments and intelligence help and all these Germans for example played a big role in that region. So there are changes for exam we can see right now immediately in the Middle East I think also this will this will also happen in Africa to be honest the Soviet Union Europe and the United States if you pick any continent where they have the least interest, it's Africa. This is particularly true of our of the two superpowers as you as you Issues of the world where they're interested, of course South Africa particularly the exciting events that are taking place there too as part of the sort of global democratization process. I think there will be impacts that will be will be fell but we haven't seen them yet. What implications National Security implications for the United States. Does this political instability in the Soviet Union have if any well obviously the let's start with the it would have a lot the answer is what have a lot. The the first level is that we would have to worry about their army their weapons. They're very sophisticated and huge stockpiles of weapons, which do exist. What would what would happen to those could a could a dissident Army group for example, do something gained control of certain weapons chemical weapons or nuclear weapons and do something this reminds us of movies. We've seen right or novels we've read in the past. Obviously, you can't rule that out. The the the good news is that the Army appears to be there is no anti-americanism certainly in the Soviet Union in the internal situation is so completely and totally Broken down that whatever the betting line is whatever military the military priority is certainly to preserve the union and within the Soviet Union itself and not to to launch external. But of course, there's no guarantees. And this is one of the real difficulties. We have the good side. The easy side of it is the Soviet Union clearly is not going to launch a land invasion of Western Europe and that's why I think most of us believe that we can continue in the arms control with the reductions of our of the troop levels in Europe, but the big question is what exactly is going to happen at the Strategic level and here like I can tell you because we're very involved in in my institute's very involved in it reason. I saw General yes off the defense minister of the Soviet Union a few weeks ago was exactly on this issue about setting up which we have done a working. I working group a high-level working group between the west and the Soviets to talk exactly about this question. Now the Soviets are doing things for example, they are moving certain types of weapons out of unstable Republic's we know that's that's that's documented. We know that chemical weapons. IPads for example are being moved out of Armenia and Azerbaijan certain weapons are being moved out of the Baltic states so that they are they are obviously aware of this is obviously there is we're aware of this as well. This is all happened so fast, this was not in anybody's contingency planning the way it's developed and of course particularly strange 44980 planners and others is is that we have the total disintegration of the Warsaw Pact when I asked general yossef. What is the worst? How do you judge the Warsaw Pact now? He said well the Warsaw Pact is not a military Alliance and I said, what is it? He said so political Alliance and I said, when did it stop being a military Alliance? And he said the day I could no longer use it which I thought was very I thought was a very effective answer. It wasn't much you can say I tried to get him to tell me when that was but he justs apparently it's been there for a while. Thanks Jen a question from Joe Krueger. Good morning like to thank you for addressing this. They have a couple of questions once more comment. The first is I would not necessarily take issue with you, but I would impart agree with many of your comments. The Gorbachev is quite as a tactician and that early on is in his high-profile political career in the Soviet Union. He's made quite an attempt of winning the or warming the emotions of the western Europeans and I think has done a lot toward to easing the political view of his unrevealed their policies or attempted policies that were later to come. I think that's done a lot to help bring bring his policies greater acceptance or consideration the other is it may be a question asking a comment toward the The house I said the impact is that can come or not come as a result of a whole missing generation of the Soviet population as a result of the second world war in terms of the Nationalist flavors of the politic that haven't been voiced is so so clearly maybe that you've identified and are those going to be you know influenced by that missing generation or as a result of that missing generation and what can we expect in terms of the profile of what that politic is going to be its age group and it's real political flavoring. Okay, that's the this could be a long discussion we could have on a common question like that. Let me just try to make it two or three brief very brief observations. The first one would be that you one of the problems that we have in the in the Soviet Union and all the East European countries to was that you do not have a lot of choice in terms of people are educated with the Communists in order to be highly educated in those systems. You pretty much had to be co-opted by the party you had to join the party and all in order to have access to the research facilities to the you know, that the best the best trained people in most of these societies are people who have been involved with the Communist party. So you have a real lack As you move towards multi-party systems or whatever and we see this even in Hungary not not just in countries like Bulgaria, but in even in Hungary where there is a total shortage, I spent some time Friday afternoon with the head of the democratic Forum of Hungary was the leader of the democratic forces and he was saying that you know, we're he was he you know, he could win who knows he could be prime minister of Hungary in the by the end of the year and I said to him, what's your biggest? Rodney said my biggest problem is I don't have anybody to appoint two positions. I don't have trained. I don't have trained people. They don't exist unless hungarians who left in 56 or willing to come back leave their jobs and take over government Ministries and run things. I've got almost nobody that can take over and he gave me all these examples of these highly specialized highly technical bureaucracies and Ministries and all these kinds of things. So this is one whole set of whole set of problems. The generational issue is is also of course an interesting one and and here you have a situation where you do you do hit you can find hardliners at the younger generation, but and you can find great reformers who are over 80 I've seen both but it is true that generationally the lines gorbachov is appealing very much to the younger generation their desire for for computers for technology Etc. And it's a it's an interesting the young people are very it's interesting. They're excited privately but they still even they can't believe that this really is going to work. They there's that feeling Part of that's that traditional Russian feeling, you know that well, you know, it's the sky shining the sun is shining now, but I'll bet it's going to Cloud over before the days over that sort of the Russian mentality was Americans than God look the sun shining, you know, we don't we don't worry about it or you know, if you ask an American, how are you? I'm fine. Even though you're not Russian would never say that to you. How are you? I'm not so good. My mother's sick. My sister's my secretary didn't show up for work, you know, this is this is a this is a just a cultural difference partly to at the Minnesota meeting at the Marriott Hotel in Downtown Minneapolis. John Rose president of the Institute of East-West security studies is speaking to about 200 people. Here's another question. How able is Poland administratively to account for and distribute funds donated by Western countries. There was a total Bedlam in the beginning when this was tired of because there was no mechanism for distribution. They have now set up a very interesting. There's a whole series of organizations that have been set up to funnel. For example, a Don democratization economic projects. There's a foundation for the development of Polish agriculture. So there are now are there now are these institutions do exist? The channels are there it was Bedlam for for the first six months, but it's settled in and the West has done really a very admirable job of moving in and helping the polls to create institutions for dealing with these kinds of things have a question here from Monica Manning. Would you expand on your comment that you made initially? Out not wanting to be a member of the minorities in the United States in the next decade or not the United States. Okay. I thought you had a did I say that? Oh, I know I should have said USSR and the Soviet Union the Soviet Union or in the Balkans is what I meant to say advice ausa Here's a question. Thanks those who said no, I didn't say that. Here's a question from Rodger Parkinson publisher of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. John we were talking to table here. And I wonder if you amplify your comments on which ties the previous question on anti-Semitism that you see outbreaks of that note. Not only in Central Europe and Russia, but even in Western Europe like Norway and countries like that, one of the the disquieting trends that if you work with Europe every day as I do in the 50 people who work with me doing New York, one of the things one of the trends that one has to has to pay attention to is the the the rise and the the the willingness of people to be more outspoken in their in stressing anti-semitic views. This is not only the case in countries like Poland and the Soviet Union and others were it has been in existence for a long time. But it also we're seeing signs of it in France and human or way other places. Now one of the issues is why suddenly this Resurgence is it because the you know, when the walls come tumbling down you you you get you get you get everything you don't just get the good you also get the bad anti-Semitic. In Europe has always been there and probably will be there for a long time. I think it is a worry in some countries. I know for example that that my Institute is now devoting a huge amount of time to the question of protecting minority rights. You have a lot of people in these countries that are newly liberated that are that are trying to experiment with a democracy and it's easy for us to be critical. But I mean we look at our own history its it's not easy to put together a democratic a democratic government because you really have to decide you have to fine tune it to what do you want to do? What do you want to achieve and you remember if you are living in a country that for 40 or 70 years was controlled by a minority a Communist Party perceived as a few controlling the masses. It's very easy for the majority to say all we want is the system where the majority decides that's what we want. Whoever gets 51% winds and a period that's the end. Now, let's go on to our next issue. And you say well, what about what about everybody else in the society? How do you protect? Them, how do you make sure that their rights are protected and and you and the comments we get our very interesting. I'm talking from Highly Educated people who are leaders of these opposition groups and you get a lot of comments like well, we haven't thought about that and you know, we don't know what kind of parliamentary system do you want? What kind of representation do you want? These are very very very very critical questions access to Media all these kinds of questions. So, you know, it's not surprising these kinds of things are coming up and it's not just anti-Semitism but there are a number of minorities ethnic as well as religious in the Balkans particularly, but also in in the Soviet Union that are extremely worried that that a headlong rush to either Anarchy or democratization that is not carefully thought through will be at their expense. Yeah a question from Eugene sit John welcome back the question relates to economic opportunities. How do we as a American industry position ourselves to benefit from these changes and secondly, we at a disadvantage given the fact that we don't have the money to hang out like the Japanese or the Germans. And before you answer that let me give you a little bit of preference 15 years ago. The Western Banks went into Poland and some of those countries and they lost their shirts. Some of us went to China and we have done very well. So six exuberance kind of exaggerated Gene. It's a you know, it's a good question. I think it's country-specific. I wouldn't rush right now to invest in Romania for example, but I think the three that I mentioned have already crossed over and our are safe for investment. Of course, we also have a little extra safety net that OPEC the overseas private Investment corporation in Washington, which Garrett which ensures small especially small. Now includes Poland and Hungary and I believe certainly by September will also include Czechoslovakia and and possibly even Bulgaria so that that makes it a little easier for investors to to to go over there the Soviet Union. I mean it's a very difficult thing and it's a the Germans are are doing at the Italians are perhaps the most active there. It's a heart a lot of American companies have decided to invest in the Soviet Union it is it is extremely likely that you're going to have some major upheavals in the Soviet Union over the course of the next two to three four years. It is unlikely to opic is going to guarantee credits for the for the Soviet Union. So there are risk involved in in getting involved in that part of the world on the other hand. That's a heck of a market and those there are companies that are doing exceedingly. Well Western companies are doing exceedingly well there and there are some very very big deals which are about to go down with a major American corporations. And we're talking billion dollar deals in a wide variety of areas. Sectors like health care for example consumer products food food processing the biggest one of the biggest single needs of the certainly the Soviet Union the Italians very skillfully have devoted a large part of their efforts into the food processing industry, which is something the American should have seen and done. So there are certain sectors where I think and of course food processing most people feel is relatively safe because it's doubtful that even in a revolution people are going to go blow up the food processing plants so that those are medical instrument plants that kind of thing. These are addressing big needs of the society and are probably are probably areas that are worth are worth moving into the next question comes from Sheila Steiner. How do you compare the Gorbachev Revolution with the 1917 Revolution its impact. Well, there's a lot of analogies that one can one can make and the first thing you hear from any hardliner. The right-wing people is you got a lot of a lot of smiles around the room and you asked that so clearly that's a question. A lot of a lot of people are wondering there was the Soviet Has had experiments with with with democracy small experiments. They have always led to Bloodshed major Bloodshed and that is a worry many of us have who are ingrained in history of the area that you cannot forget that this is true. And the most of the people from the right wing will tell you this is exactly what's happening is that Gorbachev's policies are going to throw the Soviet Union into a into a situation of Bloodshed and and turmoil many people feel the Soviet Union's going to have to go through what we went through with our Civil War. By the way. I was quoted very interesting enough the editor of Pravda quoted me a letter from Abraham Lincoln 282 Horace Greeley on April 11th 1862. Whereby he was defending why he chose to put preservation of the Union ahead of abolishing slavery. If he had to do one first, he had to preserve the Union first abolish slavery second. I thought was interested in the editor of Pravda, which is the it means truth, of course and in Russian the party newspaper wood wood wood. That John a question from Malcolm McLean. Thank you very much. Your last answer partly answers my question to you. Is there any equation on the part of the Soviet leadership of the Baltic republics really are kind of central European nations that relatively recently their free before the second world war and so on and that they're not looked on the same way as Armenia Azerbaijan and other is it thinkable to think in terms of full Independence or well that simply not be permitted. It's a good question on the secession issue in general, you know that the Soviet Constitution guarantees allows the right of a republic to secede but it doesn't say how you do it technical problem. It doesn't say how you do it. So what's happening now is legislation is now being drafted up by a committee of for lawyers, which Gorbachev personally selected I met with those lawyers little over two weeks ago. And talk to them about it and seems to me that what the strategy Gorbachev has on secession is the following they didn't say this but this is my impression that what he is what he's doing is on one level saying yes, it's possible to secede. We're not changing that we're not telling you now you can't Constitution uses, you know, I said you can yes, you can but we're now going to develop legislation which will be Democratic based on rule of law which will be a process of how one's the seeds from from the union. Some people called the Algiers model the way France, you know, sort of ten years from now. Yes, you know the clock starts ticking and in the meantime here are things and what they want to do clearly is to buy time and I put it in a 10 year at least a 10-year time frame. I don't believe you'll see the Baltic states independent in 18 months, which is the view of some people even in our Embassy in Moscow. I don't think that's right in order to notice Gorbachev Zone staff think that's right that you were going to try also to do things where they're become clear winners and losers in the Republic and economic terms Financial Times. Mm. So you set it up in such a way that people some people clearly benefit economically and some clearly will get clobbered as a way to divide the Republic from within so you don't have a unanimous feeling in the re in the Republic and then of course, you tied down security and defense Arrangements. Some people say that the new Warsaw Pact will be what we used to know as the Soviet Union that will be the new Soviet packed with Lithuania and Ukraine and all these places having some kind of a military type relationship with with the Russian Republic. Nobody nobody knows but that would be that's what I understand to be the strategy question from Larry Cole a couple more questions on trades. Are you think that the Soviet Union will be given most favored nation status by the United States and how do you assess the impact of increasing us trade with the Soviet Union on Gorbachev's position? They're in other words. Do you think that if the United States trades more with the Soviet Union that will enhance this position or it will make any difference? Basically, that's a good questions the first Yes, I do believe and I understand it's it will happen this year that MF n will be given to the Soviet Union. Of course. This is borrowing unexpected events, which we have to realize our could happen on the trade issue. What's interesting. Is that everybody in the political Spectrum in the Soviet Union from the far left to the far right wants to deal more with the United States. They like dealing with the United States and it's very interesting because even the right wing the hardliners they say, you know, we like the way you Americans act by the way, my biggest shock was when one of the hardest line guys a military guys, there's no I admired what you did in Panama and I said you did and he said he's he said yes. Yes. I admired it. He said it was true. So that little general deserve to get squashed. I said, oh I'm delighted know you agrees and that's just what we should do. He said there's a lot of people we should be doing that too. And I I said dear. We we need a fund we need a glass of vodka and a long talk but the but that and they some of these hardliners say we like American nationalism. You guys don't put up with garbage. You just go right in there and pound them. You know that that kind of talk. Well, you hear that from one side and then of course you have the left saying that they admire our democratic system our style our you know, our abilities our beliefs. So it's very unusual as an American. You cannot find anti-American sentiment there. It's unbelievably difficult to find I'm sure it's there somewhere but you can't find it and I think this what I'm getting at answering your question specifically is that American corporations are would be particularly in our being particularly welcomed and this is going to accelerate when the German at the German issue moves forward because then the Russians are going to want the more American involvement the less German the better because people are afraid of German domination that's to in Poland to John Rose president of the Institute of East-West security studies. Thank you very much.