(00:00:00) And now the time is 12 o'clock. (00:00:10) Good afternoon. I am Deborah Howell, editor of the st. Paul Pioneer Press dispatch and a past president of Minnesota meeting. Welcome to all of you in the audience here and to our radio listeners throughout the Upper Midwest who are hearing this program on Minnesota public radio's midday program. These broadcasts are made possible by the law firm of Oppenheimer wolf and Donnelly with offices in st. Paul Minneapolis and other major cities in the United States and Europe. Minnesota meeting is a public affairs Forum that brings nationally and internationally known speakers to Minnesota members of Minnesota meeting represents, the States leaders from all walks of life. I am pleased today to introduce Minnesota meeting speaker National Republican committee chairman Lee Atwater after his talk. He will answer questions from the audience. There are cards on your table for questions. Lee Atwater is a mongrel politician and that's what makes him. So interesting. He's part nice middle-class cocker spaniel part loyal golden retriever part mean is a junkyard dog. He has the nose of a good Coonhound and the nervous energy of an Afghan and when he bares his teeth some think he's a doberman pincer. He's the son of an insurance man in a school teacher and he grew up in Columbia, South Carolina figuring. No one knows your you better than the people you grow up with. I called on my sister knight-ridder paper in Colombia for help. Here's what I found in there morgue. No one ever accused Harvey Lee of being a good student in high school. But one classmate said he could always be counted upon to keep people laughing. He started a risque underground newspaper and ran his first campaign for student body president real candidate on a platform of free beer mandatory good grades in the right to cut class. He also had a rock and roll band called little Harvey in the up Setters review and Irene new fur in Colombia remembers them ways it waving their usual tremendous fee of $50 to play all day to raise money for an elementary school baseball field Harvey got serious about politics at least at Newbury College in Columbia and was elected president of the college Republicans. He earned a master's degree in Mass Communications from the University of South Carolina, probably because he wanted to find out how the Twisted minds of journalists work and he's been working for years on a PhD he parlayed the college Republicans post up the ladder to becoming the executive director of the college Republicans nationally and met one George Bush who was chairman of the Republican National Committee at the time from there. He worked in Ran campaigns for Republican. Senator, Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina as well as numerous other Republican candidates, it was around this time. I was having no luck. No luck putting a hard hustle on a cute redheaded intern in Thurman's office. And it was George Bush who lent at water is boat to finally impress his now wife Sally enough to get him a first date Lee managed Ronald Reagan's 1968 primary campaign in South Carolina and by 84 was the president's Tam Deputy campaign manager. So it seems only natural. He would run George Bush's 1987 campaign Atwater has developed an almost cult following among conservatives and Republicans as a hard-working blindingly bright strategist at the same time. He has developed a reputation with the tactics used by Bush to defeat Michael Dukakis who can ever forget a card-carrying member of the ACLU are the Willie Horton commercial. He's been accused of every dirty trick in the political book. A scorched he's been called a scorched-earth fighter slimy takes unalloyed pleasure in taking a razor to the opposition's throat, but besides that as parents to love him, he's also a runner loves professional wrestling because that's where the votes are. Loves to read is a history buff and supposedly never travels without Machiavelli's the prince. You also loves horror movies. He's to me the most interesting thing is that he's a true soul man who grew up on rhythm and blues and that old time rock and roll and he packs a mean guitar who could have ever dreamed that a major event at George Bush's inauguration would be a concert with Bo Diddley, but he's also a guy who enjoys a good a good laugh which brings me back to my canine. Analogy Lee Atwater is reputation reminds me of a joke from my Texas Daddy. It's about this famous fighting dog. Old Blue from the swamps of East, Texas. Old Blue had killed about every other dog in the surrounding Three Counties and after a particularly vicious match the owner of the vanquished dog. Ask old blues owner. Where did you get that dog? I never seen anything like him well to tell you the truth buddy for I chopped off his tail and painted. Liu he was an alligator folks meet Lee Atwater Thank you. Thank you. That was that was great. That was a fun introduction. (00:05:46) And I'm glad y'all dug up a fellow Southerner to introduce me. This is going to be interesting because of the topic. I'm one of these people I speak almost every day in this job. So like some of the rest of you that speak, you know, you find out the day before you come what you're going to speak on and I looked yesterday in the topic was the 1988 election (00:06:11) and it's exciting to (00:06:13) me to a certain extent because I've never given a speech on the 1988 election because what happened is that I was asked by the president to be to take the job as chairman of the Republican National Committee right after the election. So I immediately started speaking on the future of the Republican party and what we were trying to do and (00:06:32) never have I just thought about it really (00:06:34) yesterday. I've never given a talk on the 1988 election. So on one hand, excuse me, if I Stumble a little bit because this is a new topic for me, but I sat down on the plane like all of us thoughtful people do in wrote everything on the back of about three cards on the way here and it was very interesting to put the king. Pain back in focus and so what I thought I would do is just knock off a few of the points and then I think hopefully have a good bit of time for Q&A. But before I get started, I've got to tell you all that to of the very very close personal friends of George Bush's that got with him very early in his political career and stuck with him all the way are here today George Pillsbury who I guess most of you know an Debbie Tegan who is going to be an international States person wears heavy and I want to thank them again on behalf of the president for the years of loyal service. They put in to the George Bush movement, and I also want to elaborate a little bit on the story about my wife because what happened is the very first job I got out of college was to was I was asked to come up be the national executive director of the college Republicans and the very first person I met coincidentally was when I was going up, You have to do my paperwork. I meet this nice looking middle-aged guy and I shake his hand and he says I'm George Bush (00:08:02) and I said you George Bush. I'm Lee Atwater (00:08:04) and I got a few things. I want to tell you. He said all right, come on in. So I go into his office which today is my office and sit down and talk to him for about 25 minutes. And I must say I walked out of there amazed that the national chairman Republican party would spend 25 minutes was a 22 year old guy. (00:08:24) And so I became a big fan and adhere and follower of George (00:08:27) Bush then and have been ever since but anyway about three weeks later. I still hardly knew him, but I felt like I could ask him a favor. There was just nice looking redhead that was interning for Strom Thurmond who I'd been trying to make a move on I guess best parlance to put it in and I was getting nowhere and record time. And so I happened to see the chairman and I just off the top of my head. I said mr. Chairman, could you help me on Nothing this girl this woman. I'm trying to I don't know. I guess I said pick up. I'm not getting anywhere and I could really use some help and he said well, what do you want me to do when I said I'd like to bring her by here and get a picture made with you have a little chat and everything and have you mentioned somewhere along the line that you know how important I am over here and he kind of rolled his eyes, which I have seen him do a hundred times at me since but he said, all right, I'll do it, but I got to get out of here. So get it. Let's hurry up. So I had someone else call her. Mr. Atwater would like for you to come over and meet the gym and so on so forth she comes over and I whisk her into have a picture made with the chairman and he chats a little bit. He plays it like a Stradivarius as you know, things have really picked up around here in the last three weeks now that we got out water over here and so forth. So she goes walking out with kind of an oblivious look on her face and he said, you know, I don't think this really did much to I don't think she knows About politics do as she was very impressed. But I tell you what, I got to go to Houston this weekend and my boats going to be down on the Potomac. So why don't you use the boat last couple other couples and take her out on the boat and that may impress her. So I did and that was literally the first date I had with my wife. So, you know, I kind of feel that I owe my wife to George Bush. Well, no, you know what I mean? (00:10:22) at any rate I he and I are (00:10:27) reacquainted ourselves and became very very good friends. I I went to work for Ronald Reagan in 1976. And after that campaign, I told Governor Reagan and his advisers that if he ran again, I would support him and in our business politics money is not the main currency of politics of for those of us who do it all the time. We're in it because of beliefs and cause and so on so forth and probably the main currency that keeps us together is the whole notion of loyalty and when you give you words you don't break it so when Ronald Reagan decided to run again, I was there and I told when I found out that George Bush was going to run I talked to him and told him what I was going to have to do and he fully understood that but at any rate we became friends again when he We renewed our acquaintance literally the day he got the nomination for vice president because I was sitting there in Ronald Reagan had brought us in us meaning the 12 or 13 of us that had been in the campaign with him and brought in George Bush and as he was walking out the door, he said out. What are you still jogging? I said, yes, so we went jogging that day and it was like I hadn't is like I last week was the last time I'd seen him instead of eight years. So we were new to our friendship and I immediately knew that if he ever ran for president, I wanted to help him in any way I could so he asked me to come see him in December I think 19th or 20th right after the 1984 campaign and from that point on I and effect of a king his chief political operative and so it was a four-year Endeavor, but I remember talking to him for about two and a half hours that night and I remember walking out of there. In going home and making three assessments. That I made that I felt applied to the general election and the primary that I still think hold true today. Number one was is that I felt like George Bush was a had a lot more durability and was a much more durable candidate and politician and man than any other critics would give him credit for being and that he would be written out of the race not only in the primary but continually in the general election, but that he was going to be much more durable than his credit critics in the press or primary opponents or general election opponent would ever give them credit for and I learned this by experience because I was in charge of in effect of super Tuesday effort wasn't as big a super Tuesday, but for Ronald Reagan in 1980, and we really put a whooping on George Bush down the South and I felt like he was going to have to get out of the race after that. He'd not only did he not get out of the race he stuck in there. And one some very interesting states late in the process. He beat us in Michigan. He almost beat us in Texas. He beat us in Pennsylvania. And I learned there that this guy was very much a competitor in very very durable and I felt like that that was going to pay off for him all throughout the process. Secondly. Secondly, I felt like he was going to be underestimated probably more underestimated than any politician in recent history. Not only by his opponents in the primary and Upon Us in general election, but by the political pundits in the media and that this underestimation would be one of the best advantages he would have in the process because in our business expectations are everything. Yeah you look at and not only in primaries but in debates and everything else and if you've got continual low expectations, it's always a big advantage. and lastly, I felt like no one would estimate the advantage he would have just on sheer experience as a candidate in experience in National politics because if you came to me If somebody came to me from Mars and said hey, I don't know how do you get elected president and states? I would say well, I'll tell you what number one. It's very weird. It's a weird game and there's not a lot of rules, but there is one rule that seems to be the case more often than not and that is running around. The track is the biggest single Advantage you can have and if you look back at history, you see that Richard Nixon ran around the track. He ended up winning Ronald Reagan ran around the track Walter Mondale to get the nomination ran around the track. It served as vice president. And so running around the track is a is the best Advantage you can get for several reasons. It is a weird thing to run for president running around the (00:15:05) track gives you the (00:15:07) feel. It gives you an understanding of the bends in the river. (00:15:12) If you will, (00:15:13) it also gives you a chance to get out in these critical States and build up an organization. Not only a political organization but a Anshel organization and it also allows you to get an understanding of how quote things play. I mean the first time I ever candidates in the field that I've observed. It's just obvious to me that they don't have an understanding. I mean something that might be absolutely trivial may appear to a first-time National candidate is a giant catastrophe by the same token something that is absolutely critical may seem trivial. So running around the track is just a giant advantage and George Bush is a was the all-time record holder of running around the track because not only did he run around the track is a candidate for president. He ran around the track twice in off-year elections is a sitting vice president. (00:16:07) And I remember one time (00:16:08) talking to Richard Nixon and he pointed out to me he we were talking about the same notion of running around the track. He pointed out to me that his most important run around the track was not as a presidential candidate not as vice presidential candidate, but as an off year candidate in the St. Six elections so he had to off-year elections around the track one campaign is an incumbent vice president one campaign for president. But he also ran around the track in 1973 and 74 when he was National chairman of party because if you go to every state in the country, he still got a political base of people that knew him (00:16:44) back when he was National chairman (00:16:46) 1973. So I felt like that this was going to be an unbelievable advantage that would not be given the kind of notice. So those were the three initial assessments I made in the race now, there's a couple other early assessments that I think are worthy of mentioned first is our pollster in my co strategies in the race. Bob Teeter came up with a notion of the presidential Circle which is which is this it's an informal observation he made which I think is very true. And that is is the American voters really have it. There's an invisible Circle if you That voters feel like a candidate has to be inside of the presidential circle before they'll take him serious as presidential candidate. Now that doesn't mean if you get in the circle your automatic matically president, as a matter of fact several people have gotten in a circle that never became president. I think you burn Humphries a good example of guy who got in a circle never came president. I think Rockefellers an example of somebody who got in the circle never came president, but the fact is is nobody can become president unless they get into that Circle somehow another and what the circle basically is is is a situation where if somebody is thrust into the presidency people. Wake up the next morning say, oh I yeah sure. He's he's presidential he's worthy of being president whether we like them or not personally and at the outset of this contest in both parties, there was only one guy in this circle and that was George Bush now in my judgment you had two other people hovering around the circle and I remember thinking of analogy of us in a little boat in the middle of the circle with fins in the water's going around. So, you know, you always think a strategy and three or four different ways. I've Always found to simplify simplify and so in a very simple extent if you could stay in the boat and you had a paddle and you could beat these other fins away you end up winning and the other two fins hovering around the boat were we're Gary Hart in Bob Dole. Those were the two guys who I felt like I had the best chance of getting inside the circle as it turned out, you know, that never came about however, I do think Senator Dole is in that Circle today, but at the time I think that the presidential Circle notion was something that was very critical to our whole understanding of the process now secondly is it was this is that we made the initial assessment that the base of the Republican parties in this country emanate nationally from Wings the Democratic party emanates from the left wing with their core base being over on the left the core base of our party emanates from the right and we made the assessment. That if the vice president really did three things. Nobody could get to the right of him. I thought it was very important to create a situation where no one could ever get a unified right-wing base in Republican party. So the three things that he did one of which was totally his own strategy that he was going to do. Anyhow, what which was stick with Ronald Reagan because Ronald Reagan had an unprecedented base over there on the right wing of the party and George Bush is on character in his own sense of loyalty at already dictated. That is a strategy for the last six or seven years number to be hardcore on taxes. The base of our party is very anti tax. And of course he did do that in the other is is the base of our party is anti-communist. And so those were the three things that we felt like if you establish those three things no one can really accumulate enough of right-wing base to threaten you Now the other thing is is this and this is one of these things that no one ever notices, but I think was absolutely critical one thing. I did. I was a deputy campaign manager 1984. So I went out and studied every other campaign I could find and I felt like the most critical thing in the kind of job. I had then and the kind of job. I had this time that you could do was keep the campaign United because what happens is when you get when you start having internal factions and internal problems the whole campaign just totally totally diss rivals. And so we were obsessed with the notion of keeping a unified campaign and I'm proud to say the five or six of us Nick Brady Bob Teeter Craig Fuller and others that sat down for years in advance of that campaign stuck together through the whole campaign and believe me my friends it can that was some very tense moments. But if you looked in the primary every campaign on our side became factionalized and unraveled the Dukakis campaign in the general election came facts analyzing and unraveled. And so this whole notion of staying unified throughout the primary and being obsessed with it because you really it take self discipline. It takes unbelievable disciplined campaign to do that. So those were kind of the initial assessments now, let me walk through the primary because I've never I've never time this speech and looks like it would take longer than I thought it was going to be let me walk you through the primary. The first thing that I in my own mind had to do was divided the primary period into three periods. That I called the pre invisible primary which took place and then secondly the invisible primary and then thirdly the primary now I had come up in my mind with the notion of the invisible primary a few Cycles ago, but what has happened in our country as the presidential game has become one ongoing process that never ends is a matter of fact my yet unfinished and probably never finished dissertation is called the permanent campaign and that's just my thesis. So the first segment I called the pre invisible primary is really controlled and defined by another thing. I call the echo chamber and the echo chamber is this this for 500 people in my business around the country that do nothing but politics all the time and as for 500 people around the country in the media that do nothing but write about politics all the time and we sit around for two and a half years talking to each other. And and you can't it's easy to underestimate that but it's easy to overestimate it the point is doing that pre invisible primary. That's a very important group and I felt like the toughest thing we had to do was is that we had four years out. There's a front runner getting shot at and so goal number one was to live through the pre invisible primary and not get shot out of the saddle and people have been destroyed in the pre invisible primary an invisible primary and what happened to us in the pre invisible primary, which made it very very tough was a so-called a wren Scandal or whatever you want to call that and that was very tough because we were getting it in the Echo chamber every day and every night inside the party and inside the media now, I will say this I think the most important thing that happened In this period was George Bush showed to all of us and really to everybody's watching the process his durability because I tell you my friends. I had my admiration for that garage God grew every day because it's hard to think back how tough that was every day for about four or five months. I ran this around that bush is guilty of this bush guilty of that, but we got through that invisible the pre invisible primary and then you move into the invisible primary which is when the debates start before the primary and all of these straw polls and we had a real brouhaha in Michigan, which I will not bore you with the details, but that was a real struggle and then we had two or three debates and two or three straw polls and we knew that we had to score enough in those kind enough of those contests to where you wouldn't get totally counted out of the game. We did that again, I can elaborate but I won't now then you move into the to the primary which was very interesting. Because I had gone in the primary start of course with Iowa and I had gone out to Iowa the March before the primaries began and spent three or four days. One of the things I always do is I like that I call getting lost in America as I like to go out and just put on blue jeans and a sweater or whatever and roam around 445 dates. Well actually three or four days I did that in California last year right when the general election started, but I did it my way or two and I you get enough after you do it a few times, you know about the places you need to go to shopping malls in every city. There's a drugstore to that the cognoscenti meat and so on so forth and get a real good feel of what's going on. It talked to certain reporters talk to certain political types talk to certain business types. And I came away from Iowa March before the January contest pretty well convinced that for a number of reasons, which I want to elaborate on. Now that George Bush could probably not win Iowa and I came back on Friday and called a guy who I had met several times was very impressed with who happened to be the governor of New Hampshire named John sununu and didn't tell him why I was calling but said John can I come up and see you Monday? Because I realized then if we want going to win, Iowa, we had to win New Hampshire because if you walked if you went in losing both of those so you're going to be in trouble. So I went up and had an extended dinner with governor sununu on the next Monday night and he agreed to be the chairman of the campaign in New Hampshire. I also also George Bush gave me a very good idea and he pointed out to me that the most important players you could get or Governors because they're right there in the states. They've got organizations and so on. For so we embarked on a strategy of lining up governor sununu and New Hampshire Governor Campbell of South Carolina governor Thompson of Illinois, because if you examine the primary process if you win those three states, it's almost impossible to lose the primary nomination. But at any rate, of course, what happened is that we did lose, Iowa, by the way, I think one of the defining moments of that campaign was the day after Iowa because I felt terrible here. I was a campaign manager. We lose by 21 points. And I stayed up all night thinking of my little speech of offering my resignation so forth and so it's 7 o'clock the next morning me Nick Brady and a couple of other guys went in to see the vice president. He comes Johnny out in his bathrobe. And before I have a chance to say anything he says, all right guys, I don't want anybody bringing hands. I don't want anybody pointing fingers. We did the best. We could we had a good plan. It just didn't work. I want us to sit down here. We got eight days and I don't want to sit down right now and not get up until we have a plan to win this election and I got to tell you something that was the day and that was the time that I knew this man was going to be president because there was never greater adversity than losing a critical thing like, Iowa by 21 points and so he let us all through that and of course we won that And that led us to the South Carolina primary, which was a primary of course was very involved in because my old theory is that Simple Theory if you can get if you can move the entire game to your home court, you're going to have a little bit of Advantage. So we move South Carolina to Saturday to make it I was watching a movie it was the second Hustler movie because I was trying to figure out the super Tuesday think you guys 16 primaries in one day. How do you figure out how to start in it? Was that second Hustler movie The Color of Money was named out I sent in theater by myself and I looked at that cue ball and I figured what we need soup to his cue ball. So we made South Carolina the cue ball by putting that on Saturday before Tuesday. Yeah. So you had South Carolina Saturday and in 15 states on Tuesday and the other key component, which was a little harder to pull off. This is that you had to get everybody else to step to sit down at the table with you and you had to get them to build a Stakes up very very high. So everybody in our organization in South Carolina was I was telling people that came in. Hey this out what organization he was totally overestimated. If you all come down here, South Carolina, you're going to whip Bush on on Saturday before super Tuesday. He's going to be humiliated for about a year and a half and everybody came in Pat Robertson came in dull and Kemp and sure enough South Carolina and we kept expectations. Usually expectations of kiwi kept expectations down down down in the vice president won by over twenty five percentage points and everybody got wiped out in South Carolina. So he in effect ran in super Tuesday four days later unopposed and one every state and one every delegate the super Tuesday, which of course pretty well fold it out the primary. Now the very day, what was this play? Everybody had to read in high school and what Beth where the guy does all this stuff and it builds up to a perfect triangle the second he has his greatest moment. It goes downhill from there because a very day after the this great super Tuesday. I start thinking I'm thinking the problem is is that we do not have any way to sustain or get any free media for the next three months because what I had figured was this in 1980, we thought we could take George Bush out. We couldn't he stayed in the race which helped George Bush because he was able to win all these victories in an effect. He ended up as vice president, but it helped Ronald Reagan to because we were able to get free media every Tuesday and we want a lot more than we lost but what happened so I figured it what would happen is that we would super Tuesday would be definitive in the sense that no one that George Bush would definitely get a nomination but that one other candidate probably dull would be in the race and the Calendar was such that you had Farm States like Wisconsin, maybe Illinois later so dull could get a couple of Victories. I lie Bush 1980 and we'd be able to continue to get free coverage. Well, what happened is everybody dropped out after super Tuesday and we were sitting there with three months with not enough money to go on TV because we had to spend it for super Tuesday and sure enough. What happened is Dukakis ends up in an Optimum situation where the one opponent that he was left with Jesse Jackson was the one guy in the race who could not win the nomination but had a base in every state to such an extent. It was foolish for him to get out. So Dukakis gets an easy win free publicity every Tuesday and secondly Dukakis looks like a moderate because he is beating the liberal every Tuesday and so sure enough the end result for us was by the end of spring we were sitting there with totally Ocean out of media and we were sitting there with a 17 point deficit. And again George Bush written out of the race. Just like he had been in the primary. And the only time we really worried about the overall election was is that if you're 17 points behind and let the Democrats have their convention usually get about 10 points out of a convention and that could put you 27 points behind and 27 points behind you end up in a situation like Jerry Ford did where even though you run a good campaign statistically you can't catch up. So at any rate that's when the vice president. We sat down had a meeting and Main and decided to start actually getting out there and talking about issues because the other thing that had become clear is that the caucus campaign made a conscious decision not to discuss issue and to try to drive the campaign on competence and it was very obvious to me as a southerner. And as a populist type why I didn't want to do it. If you could keep the campaign off issues, then you could get a lot of Southern Democrats. Who were going to vote for us? If it were on issues to say look, there's not a lot of difference between two candidates will go vote Democratic and by the same token, you could get a lot of North Eastern Catholic and ethnic voters to say who had voted for Reagan last two elections to say look not a lot of difference between these two candidates will go vote for Dukakis. So it was plain to me that their strategy was to keep the campaign off of issues and keep it on other things and fuzzy issues and the vice president felt that way too. So he got out and started comparing and contrasting his position on issues with that of Dukakis and sure enough the 17-point lead right before the conventions shrunk to a seven or eight point lead, which meant that Dukakis got his 10 points out of the convention, but that put him back to 17 points instead of 27 points which made the race a doable thing. However, the time Bush was still written out of the race. So then we move up to our convention where I think the tomb where one of the two most important things in the general election. Let me tell you something. I do not buy this business of campaign operatives, like myself having a lot to do with it with the outcome of these elections. I believe me, I would hate to say this, but but actually if you examine particularly the general election to of events Define that election more than anything else. One of them was a speech George Bush gave in New Orleans, which was a masterpiece in truly a signal event in the campaign the otherwise his performance in the second debate at Los Angeles. I mean those two events more than anything else was what turned the tide of the election so he gave that speech in New Orleans and we had to it was only this simple there's two things you from New Orleans on there were two things that we try to do and that is stay on the offense and control the agenda control what the topics will be in discussing the campaign and Whichever one of the campaign's stayed on the offense the mostest in the bestest instead and control agenda most is the bestest was going to win and so from a technical standpoint. That's what happened. We stayed on the offense we kept control of the agenda. I candidate delivered every single time. There was an important event because again as I walk back over and I think the four most important the for if there's four reasons, I think George Bush was president. Number one he had to do ability to get through that array. Nian crisis. Number two, he had to do ability to get through Iowa number three his speech and number for his performance at the debate. So the general election was in effect relatively uneventful. Now there was another important component of our strategy and that is geopolitics. I'm one of these people I really believe in geopolitics and I got into this at age 21 with one dream in mind and that is it if I could devote my life to helping develop a Sunbelt political base for our party on a Initial level that we would have a better than 60% chance to win the president's any time in the Sun Belt political base was is that we had the West if we could solidify the south on the presidential level and solidify Texas and Florida that we would start off each contest with an effect 230 electoral votes. Now if you're starting off with 230 in the other guy starting off with about 50, you generally come out. All right. So I think the biggest Advantage we had structurally going into the general election was is that we did have this Sunbelt political base from a geopolitical standpoint and we did have the best candidate now the disadvantage we had was that I felt like we were just on the wrong side of the historical cycle. There is a tradition in this country that when one party has been in for two four-year terms one guy's been in for eight years time for the party to get it and so what we had to do was get through that critical. Roadblock and get there toward the end. We're in the last two or three months geopolitics was driving the election more than anything else because the ultimate component of a geopolitical strategy was is in the last three weeks. You want to be spending 80 percent of your time in the other guys Turf and you want the other guy to be spending 80 percent of his time and his own turf and that's what happened. If you look at last three weeks of the campaign, we spend 80% of our time inside of 12 States 12 out of the twelve Dukakis had to carry to win the presidency Dukakis spent 89 85 percent of his time inside of the 12 States any one of which he lost he lost the election and that is if you're running a successful Geo political campaign, that's basically how you want to how you want it to end up now. Let me make a couple other points about Dan Quayle. Dan Quayle did three things that helped out in the general election more than I think he's ever been given credit for number one expectations. The chaos surrounding the quail appointment down in New Orleans was such that the Beck spec tations for the vice president got down to lower than the ground and for him to get out there and give the speech he gave in New Orleans among those expectations. I think made that speech probably have three or four times more affecting it would have had had we not had that kind of chaos, and that's and that's important. (00:38:29) Secondly. I've told us (00:38:30) that the vice president so I don't mind seeing that here. He was the greatest rabbit in the history of politics and what I mean by that is the Democrats spent all this time and money trying to make him the issue and had they been talking about something else issue something that voters are going to vote on voters vote for the candidates for president. They spent eight weeks trying to make Dan Quayle issue greatest rabbit in history of politics and lastly and most fundamentally important was this Geopolitics is as I said a minute ago. We would not have been able to spend 80% of our time in enemy in so-called the other guys territory if Dan Quayle worn out there in our base constantly, he went out there and he covered the South he covered the West repeatedly and over and over again to such an extent that we were allowed to spend our time with our candidate in in enemy territory. So to speak now one other point about the Democratic the happiest day for me in the whole dry spit period the campaign when we were so far behind was the day they announced their vice presidential selection because it's interesting the one state every time I'd sit down forgot Electoral College the one state that we had to have to win the election was, Ohio. And frankly, I figured there's no way they're not I mean, even these people are going to be smart enough to understand they got to put Glenn on the ticket. And because at frankly it would have been very hard for us to compete in Ohio had John had John Glenn's been on the ticket, but they select a guy from Texas. I mean, I just tell you friends. There was no way we were going to lose Texas and the vice president after all is said and done is not going to do historically doesn't do much more than carry one state his home state and there was no way that that Benson was going to do that. So I thought what's always funny is to see everybody writing stories. This is a genius move the Democrats smartest thing. They've done I'm sitting there saying wow, I can't believe it. Anyhow those rods in the ends if I don't how long we saw it I didn't Have I got time for questions? Oh, I do I had a couple other brilliant points, but I (00:40:54) here's the way the question answers (00:40:56) are going to work (00:40:57) Gary Gilson standing up there with the mic Jane mrazek over here with the mic. She is going to they're going to pass among you and you may ask your questions or you may give them to Jane or Gary and they will ask them for you. (00:41:14) Good afternoon. Mr. Atwater. Hello? Who's got a question (00:41:18) Gary? We have one over here missing. Mr. Gibson. Larry Gibson is Dan Quayle in the presidential Circle right now? (00:41:29) Do you think he will absolutely I think that anybody this vice president is in the vice president. Yes, I do. (00:41:38) While we wait for one, mr. Atwater Debra mentioned before that, you read the prince consistently and I read somewhere that you read it a couple of times a year. Do you read it in hopes of not forgetting what you've learned or in hopes of learning something new from it? (00:41:53) Yes. I actually actually that's not quite right. I've got two books that made a great impression on me in college and I read them all the time. I'm like a lot of people I read other books in between but I'm always in one of them. I was reading on the way here today is the Republic Plato and one's the prince because I think the Republic is the best normative political science book ever written in the prince is the best empirical meaning political science and I think that those two books give you a good balance and I continually read them so I couldn't even count how many times I've read. Both of them (00:42:28) question from John Anderson. Yeah. (00:42:30) Mr. Atwater. What small credit do you take for having president? Choose George Bush's is Vice (00:42:36) President. President Reagan God I wish I could figure out a way to get some no, I don't I don't I have no credit for that because it's in that particular election. I was the southern guy but I was not in the National strategy tickets, but I must say I thought it was a very smart choice at the time for two reasons. Number one. I think the very first decision you need to make politically on the vice presidency is do we need to unite the party. Is there a need for Unity and if there is you pick the person that can best unite the party good example, John Kennedy, he made a very clear-cut decision that he needed to unite the party. He picked Lyndon Johnson, not only the guy that had run against him but the guy that represented the other existing wing of the party at the time and that's exactly what Ronald Reagan did because not only was George Bush the man that ran against him at the time. We had a moderate Wing which George Bush was the best representative of in the party and we had the Reagan Wing, so I thought it was very smart choice. Plus I like George Bush He's a good guy and I thought it's a good move (00:43:41) by. Mr. Atwater. Here's a question from Ron speed are any women in the presidential Circle and who else might be? (00:43:50) I think there are a lot of women who well the answer is is yes. There are women who I think are going to be in the presidential Circle. I guess I'd say they're in it now. I think Elizabeth Dole matter of fact Elizabeth Dole. I don't mind saying was on my list to be vice president. I think she's terrific. There's quite a few other women and I do say this is no question in my mind that in my lifetime or we will see a woman not only is vice president but a woman is present. (00:44:20) Is a question from Malcolm McLean. (00:44:23) Thanks for your Brie and Analysis of the campaign. It was wonderful. I've got to ask you though about Willie Horton and the and the vice-president wrapping himself in the flag and how that figured in (00:44:32) your your tactics, please (00:44:35) well, so call Willie Horton issue was not had nothing to do with Willie Horton. It had to do with the criminal furlough program in Massachusetts. In that program, I still think it was absolutely ridiculous because it was the only program in the country that allowed Merc convicted murderers that had no chance of parole to get out on unsupervised furloughs in that defies common sense. If a guy has committed a murder doesn't have a chance of parole. Why would you let him out on unsupervised furlough? Because number one he's got no incentive to come back. What's worse going to happen to it? Number two? He's got no incentive not to go rape or kill because nothing is worse going to happen to him. And that's exactly what happened in the Massachusetts criminal furlough program. Willie Horton happened to be an example of that. We had a rule in our Campaign which we strictly adhered to that. We did not put Willie Horton in any of our heads those independent groups that we disavowed and we didn't put Willie Horton in any of our any pictures of him, but we thought the criminal I thought I still (00:45:39) do I it defies my imagination that somebody could see (00:45:43) What such a program and not only did he supported he supported vociferously for seven years and that was as simple as that (00:45:52) his follow-up question concerned the president allegedly wrapping himself in the American flag. (00:45:57) Well, he didn't wrap himself in American flag. He had a disagreement with the way Dukakis position on on that flag that flag Amendment Dukakis took a position that he supported the he supported I can't now I can't even remember the exact details, but it was it was something along the lines of Dukakis. Erred on the side of agreeing with his court that this measure was unconstitutional the vice president felt like the measure was constitutional and he chose to go. Otherwise Jim Thompson. The governor of Illinois had the same position George Bush did in the court never did Challenge and never challenged it and we felt like that was perfectly legitimate. I still feel like it was legitimate and I got to tell you something else the voters in this country by and large felt like it was legitimate. (00:46:51) We're listening to lie at what are the chairman of the Republican National Committee at the Minnesota meeting at the Marriott hotel in Minneapolis on Minnesota Public Radio. Here's a question from Harold Lyman. (00:47:01) Mr. Atwood. You alluded at the conclusion of your comments to several additional thoughts that you might that you felt. We might find of Interest. I think we would find them of interest and I did want to ask you a question about the hostage crisis in Lebanon how politically are you advising the president to handle that problem? I don't my advice to the president literally live ends at the water's edge. I I don't know. I'm not an international expert and I'm not a foreign policy expert and that's not what he's asked me to do. He's asked me to be chairman Republican party. So I give them advice on American politics and and it's as simple as that, although I must say I'm proud of the way he's handled it crisis and I am proud of the way. He's handled International scene since he's been in the combination of the way. He handled the NATO Summit combined with the way he handled the summit conference. And now the hostage crisis has been very very helpful to us politically, but I did not give him advice on any of those matters politically and I let me add he never sought it he's got he's he's he the thing that amazes me about President Bush is when you sit down and listen to him talk about the international scene and hear him talk about foreign policy. You are listening to the master and Always felt like since I first knew it amazes me. He virtually knows every personality involved in the international scene country-by-country guys, like me learn it in the States because it's 50 states and we got to learn who the players are and so forth. He knows it for the world. And so he doesn't he don't need my advice and that area (00:48:42) question from Sandra Hill. (00:48:44) Are there any steps you took her actions? You took that may have been effective but you now do regret having (00:48:49) made them. No, well, (00:48:52) yes, I wish without explaining to you the whole whole Michigan process had we spent about $200,000 more at the outset of Michigan. We could have amassed we could have amassed a bunch more delegates than we did Michigan became a very long I called it the beruit of them The Brute of American politics because Robertson in effect got his many delicate Michigan was like a ten stage process Robertson ended up in the first stage with about as many delegates as we did which made us have to spend a whole bunch of time and money in Michigan head. We spent a lot more time and effort there at the beginning of the process we could have we could have avoided that but by and large no, I think I'm very proud of the I'm very proud of the way the candidate handle the campaign. I thought it was a good (00:49:40) campaign. (00:49:43) A woman guests over here asks, what are your personal political future aspirations? (00:49:47) Oh, I'm not I don't have any I'm gonna end up being a college professor if I can ever get that dissertation done. If not, I'll be a junior college professor. No, I don't I made a conscious decision when I was 22 years old that I that I wanted to get in this but I would didn't want to be a candidate that I just wanted to help people I believed in and my one rule is I don't work for anybody who I don't personally believe in and I believed in Strom Thurmond. I work for him. I believed in Ronald Reagan. I work for him and I believed in George Bush and as long as I got some energy and their people I believe in I'll stay doing this but I don't want to be I mean, I don't I'm not a good politician because I make too many people mad (00:50:25) question here from Dave Tesla. (00:50:28) My question is along the same line, but do you perceive yourself running George Bush's next campaign? (00:50:34) Oh, I hadn't even thought about that. We got elections up in two years. I hadn't thought about that and I don't think he's thought about that but I will say this I'll do anything anytime anywhere to help George Bush because I there's never been a guy who I think's more honest and decent and a better guy to run any time for anything. So anytime he wants me to do anything. I'll do it, but we hadn't talked about the next election. (00:50:57) Here's a question that's been submitted from a gentleman in the rear does the term Imperial Congress mean that it will be impossible for Republicans to retake control of the House of Representatives if we will not be impossible. What is your strategy? (00:51:11) Well Imperial Congress determined po Congress. I'll tell you the problem we've got and it happens to be that Democrats were in the majority would be the same way if it were otherwise and that is this you do have an imperial Congress because the Congress has figured out ways to make themself unbeatable right now that if you are sitting member of Congress, you've got a 98% chance of getting re-elected. That is an Ayah cold statistic. Now, I want to ask you is anybody out here got 98% job security. I'm serious. It is become the safest job in America other than maybe a tenured college professor, which one reason I want to be one and it is because if you are sitting in Congress now, you've got an advantage and I did a paper on this and graduate school, which I Having updated but at the time you had an advantage of something like a $480,000 financial advantage. You've had a 50% 55% name recognition Advantage name recognition of congressional race is all important. You had the franking where you could send out millions and millions of very transparent mailings. It did nothing but help you get reelected. You actually had a staff of about 26 or 30 people in a relatively small area that could get out and actually do a guy did a book and he pointed out that you could do enough personal favors and services for five or six percent of the people in the district to where you get an extra five or six bonus points just off doing that and you add it all up and you can't get beat and that's not healthy That's not healthy at all. And if you go back and read The Federalist Papers and read the writings of those who founded this country, they had they and their minds the US House of Representatives was the representative bank branch of the government because the Then it was not directly elected back then it was elected by the by the local General assemblies as War presidential elections and we are way away from that. So unless we can get some reform and that's why the president is come up with a campaign Reform Bill that will try to get some kind of a Level Playing Field and secondly more importantly is reapportionment. What has happened is it reapportionment has become the vehicle in which the incumbent some put make an iron clad district for themselves and you can't and you can't win. So unless we get a fair reapportionment unless we get some kind of level Level Playing Field from all of these advantages of an incoming. The Congress is not it's going to take ages for it to change complexion again, I can stand here as a Republican and say that if it was on the shoes on the other foot it would be just as bad. However, I would not say that. (00:53:54) Question here from David (00:53:55) Bornstein. Who do you expect will be the major Democratic candidates in the next presidential campaign. Well, let me put it to you this way. I said in a meeting like this almost identical time period four years ago and I as an expert said look, I don't know which one it will be but it's obviously going to be Joe Biden or Gary Hart and neither one of those guys ever made at the Starting Gate and so it is very very early to make that kind of prediction. I personally think that the Democrats are not going to win the presidency unless they again unless two things happen one a severe economic depression in which case the party ends always out. Secondly, they put a southerner at the top of the ticket because they've got to carry the South and there are two Southerners are none and Rob but the good news from my standpoint is that primary process is still a ultra-liberal gauntlet of special interest groups and you got to go cook Flapjacks and everybody's Kitchen, and I want everything and I just don't think a guy like Sam Nunn or are Chuck Rob's going to be able to win. Anyhow, this has been fun. I thank you all for an opportunity to force me to relive in my own mind that wonderful wonderful campaign. (00:55:18) Lee Atwater the chairman of the Republican National Committee speaking live at Minnesota meeting our library outcasts of Minnesota meeting are made possible by Oppenheimer wolf and Donnelly providing commercial corporate litigation and international legal services to businesses in 40 countries around the world. Now the time is about four minutes before one o'clock. We had received word earlier that it was expected that Lee Atwater was going to leave probably as early as a quarter to quarter to 1:00 today. So thinking that we would have an awful lot of time on our hands. We were we prevailed upon mr. Pat for Sia who ran the Dukakis campaign in Minnesota and Wisconsin and California to come in and share some of his thoughts and reactions to what we've heard from Lee Atwater and so Pat with only a few minutes left until like to put a couple questions to you. If you don't mind sure first of all, I thought it was interesting that that Atwater said that the campaign really turned the election. He thought turned on a couple of things one was George Bush's speech in New Orleans at the National Convention. The second one was his performance in the second presidential debate during with that sure. I think George Bush really gave the speech of his career in New Orleans and in secondly the debate performance not so much because of what George Bush did at the second debate. It was because of more of what Mike Dukakis didn't do. I'm a big believer in the theory that George Bush didn't win this election. Mike Dukakis blew it. Nationally. We failed to respond to the various types of attacks that that Lee Atwater and George Bush throughout Mike Dukakis. It's interesting that in the course of the whole hour Lee Atwater really failed to talk much about about the the the kind of campaign. He ran Lee Atwater has a history of running really the most ruthless types of campaigns in American politics. He spent virtually no time. Talking about Willie Horton and very little time talking about their successful attempts to interject patriotism into the race. They had every right to I guess to put those issues into the campaign. Unfortunately, we did a miserable job of responding to those issues and I think George Bush's successful efforts at hitting some of the social hot buttons in this country and Mike Dukakis is failure to respond to those kinds of attacks are the real reasons. We lost and they want do you think that that kind of campaigning is what we're going to see in the presidential elections into the future as far as you can tell I sure hope not but I'm very I'm not really optimistic about about the public changing in my car yet. I guess I'm not seeing signs that people are tiring of this kind of negative politics is interesting on the way here today. I was thinking to myself what if Lee Atwater had run. Skip Humphreys campaign. I think what we would have seen last year is is Lee Atwater. In skip Humphrey talking about Dave durenberger has extramarital Affairs and telling cab drivers to get screwed and and instead skip Humphrey refused to ever get into those kinds of issues and Dave durenberger skated home freely at would or wouldn't have thought twice about, you know, pulling out the knife and stick it in Durham Burgers back two and three and four times on any issues. He has a long history of interjecting anti-Semitism racism innuendos full of various sexual charges. He's the author of The Tom Foley business last fall. He's a very ruthless but skilled Craftsmen, I think without question the most talented person in our business today, but there's really no one I have less respect for in the in the political world in Lee Atwater got 30 seconds left. This is Minnesota. We're not going to see that kind of negative campaigning here. Are we well, a lot of folks like to would like to think that the negative politics really don't work in Minnesota, but unfortunately, I think they work here as they work their place. Yeah, I think the difference is is that as you near an election minnesotans tend to take their elections a little more seriously and sift through the garbage but I think if folks come in here and use the knife early on in the process it can work and I'm afraid you will see Lee Atwater and Roger Ailes and those types play a very active role in some of the elections here next year Pat. Thanks a lot for coming all the way over from Bloomington and visit with us today. Thank you Pat for CEO who was coordinator of the Minnesota Wisconsin and California primaries and coordinator of the general election campaign for Dukakis in Minnesota. Minnesota Public Radio is coverage of issues related to Human Services is made possible in part through a grant from 3M makers of posted brand notes. That's midday for today. I'm Bob Potter. This is ksjn Minneapolis-Saint Paul 71 degrees in the Twin Cities partly sunny skies right now the wind from the southeast at nine miles an hour.