(00:00:00) Hi, I'm J.G. Preston. And this is portfolio. Anybody who wasn't quite ready yet for baseball. Probably got in the mood last night when the twins came home to the Metrodome and beat the Blue Jays 623. So I think the time is right for a no-holds-barred baseball conversation today with the always knowledgeable always opinionated Bill James. Who's 1988 Bill James baseball abstract is now available from Ballantine books the Twins play on National Television later on this afternoon in the meantime, sit back and hear what's on Bill James is mind and if you have a question for Bill, give us a call here on sport folio at 2276 thousand that's 2276 thousandth the number to call with a question for baseball writer Bill James next on sport folio. One of the great pleasures of this job is that somebody pays me to spend an hour talking with Bill James and while I'm not about to refuse my salary for this week. It is with great pleasure that I welcome him back to us portfolio. Nice having you with us again bill. You can't quite hear us bills at the case. He's not quite with his head. Okay, just talk. That's the instructions. I'm glad I have company this thing. I could never do it by myself. We re-established still. Did you miss all the kind words? I said, but you can hear me now. I breathe to him. Hello Bill. How are you? Can you hear me now? Oh, apparently we have do I put on the technical difficulty cart now? I know you can hear me now. Can't you Bill? Good morning? Mr. James. Good morning. You missed all the nice words. I said about you Bill. It's too bad. All that buttering up went for not (00:01:44) the I wouldn't have believed that many ways. (00:01:48) Say Bill. I understand from the abstract that you have another addition to the James family on the way. (00:01:53) Yeah, but another five six weeks here. We will be will be putting an addition on our family. (00:01:58) Have you decided is it a girl or a porcupine? (00:02:01) No way that we still are lacking this (00:02:03) information. Well our best to Susan. Reichle Rachel's what to now Rachel just turn to that's right. That's terrific. We'll bill it's great to have you back with us on this portfolio. And our phone number for your questions for Bill James friends is 2276 thousand just not to give any time to warm up. Let's get right to the American League West. I seem to be one of the few media clowns in this town that's willing to go out on a limb and pick the twins to actually win the West again this year, but most of the folks around here seem to be pointing. Finger down in your direction in Kansas City. Oh, yeah. (00:02:32) Well have a lot of things going for them. Opening spring training. I thought the twins had a good chance to win what I'll tell you what I think they've blown it really when they when they went North with Carlton and negro on the roster to me. I'll tell you what J.G. That that decision is going to cost them dependent because in order to win again, the twins had to rebuild their pitching staff. They had to rebuild their starting rotation and what they're really saying by taking those guys North is they're not going to do that until June and it's that that will be too late. They'll be out of it. (00:03:06) You know, you know, the guy they're excited about here though bill is Charlie (00:03:08) Charlie. The child is terrific pitcher and the question about him is never been whether he was capable of pitching. A few very impressive games. It's a question of where is Army's going to hold up over the course of a 220 inning (00:03:24) season? Yeah. I think I think they saw enough of him in spring training because they didn't want to come north with either one of those guys were or no more than one. I'll tell you that right now, but as it is that kind of reduced him to rotating in the V starting spot and you know, again a lot of this is assuming that Lee holds up, but yeah that certainly the Achilles heel in his team is what the heck that starting rotation is going to look like. Yeah. Tell me about your ball Club bill because Kurt stilwell's a guy that the Royals made a big trade to get in the offseason. He's going to fill that shortstop hole for the Royals boy. Is he good enough to Warrant given up a guy like Danny Jackson again. (00:03:59) Yeah. I think he is a picture is always if a, you know a picture you can ever Predicted a picture will play for 10 or 12 years still. Well, I think is a guy that they can pencil into that slot and have a very good chance of leaving them there for until until the start of the next millennium which 12 years away. The I think was good trade. (00:04:23) So are you going to be playing both ways every day shortstop, he's gonna be out there till he drops, (00:04:27) huh? Probably will ya (00:04:29) Floyd banisters coming into the starting rotation and in another trade to kind of replace Jackson there's a guy who's never impressed me as being able to put together two good years in a row back-to-back. How's he look so far? (00:04:40) He's only had one outing. It was an impressive when he pitched last night gave up only two hits seven Innings won the game the Floyd's been up and down a lot in his career. The problem has been not two consecutive years, but about two consecutive have no but on the other hand, I remember reading one I believe that he has a longer string of consecutive Seasons with 10 or more wins than any other pitcher unless I'm mistaken. (00:05:04) I might be right it goes back quite a way. Yeah, we'll go to the telephones and take some of your questions now for baseball writer Bill James here on sport Foley 02276 thousands our phone number on ksjn 1332 276 thousand. We have a caller standing by Minneapolis. Hi Jeff. Thanks for calling. (00:05:20) All right. Thanks a lot. Hi Bill. Hi. Listen. I wonder if you could comment on this the recent George Bill controversy has brought the designated hitter back into the Limelight and Arch purest Marie Chasse wrote an article in the times couple weeks ago. I think I don't know if you read it calling for Uber off to rescind the DH Rule and bringing back that age-old argument of the strategy of having to pitch and have your picture in the lineup. But no one ever seems to talk about the strategy of having to pitch to an extra bat in the lineup and I wonder how you feel about the DH and whether it's proven itself or whether they should we send it. Well, it seems to me that if you're having a problem with too much offense as many people felt was the problem last year too many home runs figures getting out of hand a natural way to attack that problem is to reveal the DH rule which is adopted as a response to the opposite problem 15 20 years ago. So I would have it seems to me that this would have been a natural time to do that rather than tinkering with the strike zone. Why not? Just give it to the DH rule. Yeah, the I don't think that the argument that it takes strategy out of the game has very much Merit. I don't think there's very much strategy in Signal whether or not to let a 130 hitters swing away with her. On base and there's no pointed most of the options that it created were forced options when it was obvious what had to be done. So I don't think there's a lot of Merit in that argument but neither do I think it's great room. Yeah. Okay. Thanks a lot. (00:07:02) Thanks for calling Jeff. Well, I have a hard time seeing them ever getting rid of the DH though at the levels where it's already entrenched Village. It's just needs to be taken for granted. Now. There's a whole generation of baseball people have grown up with it. (00:07:12) Now. That's right. It's now what this is the 16th year of it. Thanks. That's a long time the so I don't expect it ever to be repealed. (00:07:23) You were all throwed that horse pretty hard when he was named commissioner about trying to let the fans decide but maybe it was you who told me but somebody told me somewhere along the line that all the American League people seem to really like the DH all the nationally people really didn't and the results just weren't conclusive enough to Warrant doing any (00:07:38) that's what happened. That's right. They took poles are the fans the American Lakers fans were in favor of it over 70% a national league fans were against So the logical thing was to leave it as it was (00:07:50) baseball writer Bill James author of The Bill James baseball abstract is our guest on sport folio this afternoon. I'm J.G. Preston 2276 thousand is our phone. Number two, two, seven six thousand Billard caller brought up the George Bell story in Toronto and how he's been moved from the Outfield to more or less full-time DH although he did play Left Field last night against the twins here at the Metrodome. If you put yourself in Jimmy Williams of shoes that do you think he's handled this the right way. Do you think you should even think about taking bail out of the lineup for a for a rookie like so campus on him? (00:08:20) I'm very impressed with the way Williamson with really the whole organization. I don't think that you can stand still and get better any of you expect to improve. You have to give the young players in your organization a chance to improve it's not only Compass I know is available but also robbed do see who's in the same class and campus on it doesn't do it. They'll move do see into the Outfield and Mosby back to Center and it makes sense. I mean, I think there are better ball club with that combination. Then they are with say well the upshot in the (00:08:50) lineup clearly pushing Willie up shot on the nest was it was a big step forward for (00:08:53) them. Yeah. I think I think you did the right thing. I mean, I know George doesn't think so. But I think that what Williams did make sense and I admire him for having the wherewithal to stand up to a superstar and tell him that this is we're going to do what's in the best interest of the team whether you like it or (00:09:11) not judging from what George did in Kansas City this week doesn't look like it's if it's bothering him than they ought to bother him more. Yeah, two two seven six thousand. Our phone number ons portfolio will go to st. Paul next. Hi Alan. Thanks for (00:09:22) calling. Hi there bill. I want to ask you about the dilution of talent and made. Leagues with the expansion over the last 20 years. Do you have any numbers to confirm dilution of pitching and also hitting talent in the majors? It's a ridiculous argument. I mean the absolute minimum number of Major League teams that you could have without diluting. The talent is maybe 200. I mean the idea that that this team is nation of 240 million people can't scrape up one major league team representing. Each nine million people is just (00:09:53) absurd I argued I guess most of last season bill that what looked to be a dim munition of pitching Talent judging from pitching statistics was really more creation of the strike zone than anything else and I guess they've tried to address that straightforwardly here this season, but from what you've seen through spring training in the first week of the Season Bill have you seen much difference in the way the strike zone is (00:10:13) called know I expected to see more. I did see one game on TV. I can't remember who it was where the Umpire seem to be giving giving the high strike more but really I've been surprised by how Strike Zone still looks pretty Small to me (00:10:26) Mmm Yeah, I've seen a couple called at belt level but I wouldn't venture to say any higher than that. (00:10:32) That's right. It's Ryan same here. (00:10:35) Yeah, let's put this I want to ask you for a philosophical comment here Bill baseball's handling of the strike zone by saying we're going to make the strike zone bigger by saying it smaller. However, they decide I mean they admitted that they had not called the strike zone the way it had been written for the last umpteen years, (00:10:50) right? Yeah. It doesn't seem to make any sense. I mean why why don't you just tell the Empire's that you know, this is the strike zone call. What's in the rule book or we'll get somebody who will and then I don't understand it. (00:11:02) Doesn't it make sense. If you're going to have rules to just go ahead and follow them and not try to change without without changing the rules. That's right. I'm glad it makes two of us that thinks that strange 2276 thousand our phone number to call if you have questions or comments for Bill James the 1988 Bill James baseball abstract is out and available from Ballantine books. I know people who spend most of the last two weeks of March crawling around to bookstores on a kind of a daily routine trying to see who's Have it first and I guess Bill. You've got a revised version of the historical baseball abstract coming out in just a little bit as well. (00:11:31) Yeah, it's out in this part of the country. That's a paperback version of the historical book. (00:11:35) It's got some new material in (00:11:36) it quite a bit Yeah is-is-is out (00:11:40) and I also see from the advertising that you've once again lent your name to help promote the Great American baseball step book that I really enjoyed last year. (00:11:47) I'm glad you enjoyed it. Yeah, that will be another edition of (00:11:49) that. And is that going to be out here what in the next couple of weeks? (00:11:52) They're worried about the getting it out as soon as they can. They tell me I go on tour on April the 18th and they tell me they don't think they'll have books by then. However, my experience is that probably will. (00:12:03) Okay. So keep your eyes peeled for those Bill James fans at a bookstore near you quarter after 12. You're on sport folio on ksjn 1330. I'm J.G. Preston. Let's go back to the phones for some more your questions for Bill. James will go to Minneapolis next. Hi, Paul. Nice to have you with us. (00:12:18) Hi. Hi Bill. Hi. Wanted to thank you for the for the abstract for all these years. And said next Spring's gonna be a little bit different and I wanted to get back to the strike zone thing. Now your you were saying in the new abstract that increasing the strike zone has pretty serious implications for the game. Right? But if they had just gone to the original rule of the strike zone that be even more serious, right that's taking away more offense. So maybe it was a good thing that they at the same time sighs down the strike zone while they started enforcing the official rules. Yeah, I agree with that. But what I was saying is how did we ever get into the situation or how did we ever let ourselves get into the situation where there was such an enormous disparity between the strike zone in the rules and the strike zone and what I called the de facto Strike Zone the one I could call by the Umpire the yeah, I agree that once that problem has arisen that it would have been dangerous just automatically snap back to the Other (00:13:17) Extreme frankly. I'm more encouraged by the fact that they seem to say they're going to enforce the rule as written now than the fact they're actually changing the size of the strike zone. Anything else we can do for you (00:13:28) sir? Yeah, I'd like your opinion on the way. They're calling box, too. I don't I don't think I know what the purpose is. I mean are they just trying to to play with the pictures mind so they could express told bases are or what the as I understand it. The balk rule is intended to prevent the pitcher from deceiving the base runner doing anything, you know, fakie to give him an unfair Advantage. Well, I don't understand how this part maybe it's another case of they're saying we're going to start enforcing what's always been the written rule which would be another good sign but I don't understand why there's a big advantage or why there's a real need for the pitcher to come set and count to before he throws home, (00:14:22) you know, frankly with the strike zone. At least you were hearing some human cry about people thinking there was too much offense at the the offense was overbalancing last year. But you know, I haven't heard people complaining about there being too few stolen bases. So I wonder why they feel the need to work with that. (00:14:37) I don't either it could be that they that they felt that while they were taking home runs out of the game by giving a pictures of break. They needed to give the put some stolen bases back in to add some excitement in that way. I (00:14:50) don't know there was a bull call last night bill. I still can't believe Reardon was pitching for the Twins and Rick Leach was on first base Not only was he anchored to the bag but her back was playing off the bag and and after what looked like a completely normal stretch motion that leech was waived a second on a Balkan Reardon and it'd just break out laughing on the mountains, which is stupid to think that he would even try to fool a guy like Rick. (00:15:11) Well, I'll tell you something else. That's first ball career dime. I had not heard of that before but that's the first ball queer and ever committed everybody else doing the major (00:15:19) leagues. Is that true? That's right sure was a lousy call (00:15:21) it something like 750 800 Innings. He never been never been charged with the ball (00:15:26) history history for those 53,000 Folks at the Metrodome. Laughs. Yeah to 276 thousand our phone number with Bill James on sport folio. We happy to talk to you with your baseball questions going to say All next hi (00:15:37) Steve, I got probably real live feel question here. I'm I guess I'm a better statistician than I am a baseball fan. And I am one of the things I have to do for a living is teach people about statistics and many people have said, why don't you get some baseball numbers and use those to explain some of these obscure issues. So I thought about doing it I thought about just calling and asking and occurred to me that maybe a real simple thing would be a way to measure something like batting performance of a team over some period of time and is going to see if you could suggest what would be a good measurement from your point of view of batting or hitting or runs performance and where could I get some disk based data like on the twins or whatever that I could crank some numbers with write me a letter, right Bill James in Winchester, Kansas, and I'll try to help you with getting some data on disk. the I don't quite understand what it is. You're trying to teach (00:16:45) you one try to get across a particular concept Steve. (00:16:47) The idea is you know, you have a sort of a tradition baseball of trying to find ways of measuring performance over, you know some period of time batting averages or whatever and it occurred to me that you know, maybe some a batting average or runs batted in or guess. I am aware that you've tinkered around with you know, what are what is a really good whizzer good way to measure bedding perform. Well pitching performance or something like the first of all you have to ask yourself. What is a better job a better job while he's in the batter's box is to create runs for his team. So the way in which you should measure offense for a team is obviously just a number of runs they score. I mean nothing else could be as good that's their job is to score runs the team which has the best offensive team that scores the most runs. The for an individual what I try to do is measure the ways in which the things that he does like hitting for a batting average and hitting home runs and hitting doubles and triples are related to the creation of runs and try to estimate of those teams runs. How many were created by each individual's acts and there you can't be as precise, but you can estimate it as best you can and that's what that's what I try to do. That's a statistical method that I use to evaluate hitters. (00:18:11) In fact, you can find some some formally to play with your Stephen the in the Bill James based management. So you might want to get a hold of one of those and take a look at some of the things that bill is worked out over the years that we'd like to thank give one a better ideas to the actual offense of contribution of a player in the offensive production of teams. Well good. Thanks for your tips. Thanks for the call. Steve preciate it 22 minutes after 12 o'clock noon here on ksjn 1330. I'm J.G. Preston. My guest on sport folio is Bill James baseball writer author of The All abstract be happy to field your questions as well at to 276 thousand. It's two two seven six thousand bill. We had some excitement at the Metrodome last night Dan Gladden stole home late in the Ballgame and I guess they did a little research off-the-cuff after the Ballgame found out it was the first time at Twins player stole home on a straight steal as opposed to a busted squeeze player a delayed on a double steal first time that somebody done it in 12 years and a twins uniform (00:19:08) her Baptists Rod carew's. Hey, dude. (00:19:10) Mhm. Yeah, her back was a bad against a left-hander with two out and Hrbek doesn't hit left-handers all that. Well, frankly, I think that's a great play Stealing Home with two out in the lousy hitter at the plate (00:19:20) apart from that. If you get a base runner isn't worried about dying the you know in the next few seconds the it's a great place because I mean if you're on third base with two out your chances of scoring a 35% Anyway, that's with a good hitter at the plate. So yeah, you might as well. If you got a decent chance to steal home, you should take (00:19:42) it. Mmm left-handed pitcher on the mound to boot. So it's not like the guy had a good look at what Gladden was doing? (00:19:47) Yeah, but here you have to have a job because there's only got to be one throw (00:19:54) bill. I want to ask you to just kind of expand a little bit and comment about an essay to you have in the abstract this year that I found really compelling the one called revolution in which you speculate about the future of professional baseball without minor leagues being in involuntary or voluntary as the case may be servitude to Major League teams without working agreements and affiliations between big-league teams and minor league teams. So that that all teams would be playing for the one purpose of winning their league kind of re-establishing their credibility. I just thought that was a great discussion. I'd like you to get into it a little bit (00:20:27) it's a hard thing to get into what to pick it up, but you can start with the situation and st. Louis where an old man by the name of Bill Bidwell came to the city and said look, Not making enough millions of dollars here. I need for you guys to tax your citizens there. Some of them were making, you know, fifteen twenty thousand dollars a year good money, you know, I need for you to tax those people so you can build me some luxury boxes the so that I can make, you know, a few million dollars more and I season and if you don't do that, I'm going to take my football team away and make you a bush-league city here. No pun intended. Well, it's a disgraceful situation. I mean, I feel that ordinary citizens should never be taxed to support the millionaires in professional sports. I don't see any justification for that but ask yourself. Why do is he able to get away with that? The reason they're able to get away with that is that there's a monopoly I mean all of the professional football team sat down together and make a decision about who will have a team and who will not have a team and if they decide st. Louis doesn't have a team st. Louis don't have a team. And I think that situation is wrong. I think that there should be competing leagues so that F and if a city has proven itself to be a viable Market some legal move into that in baseball, we have baseball has not abused its Monopoly position as visibly at least in the last 20 years as has have some other sports no professional baseball team has moved in 17 years. Now the they make every effort to make it work in a city before the pullout even so the situation in baseball really doesn't serve a lot of cities. There are a lot of great cities in the country like Memphis and Miami and Tampa and San Antonio and Phoenix, which don't which have instead of the best baseball. They can have they can support have a sort of imitation baseball in which winning and losing isn't important which is called minor league baseball and Don't like that. I mean, I think that every city should have the best team that it can support and I essentially don't approve of the structure in which we have the economic structure of baseball in which we have lived our whole (00:22:53) lives. Can you see the day legally in which Congress would get involved in and revoked the antitrust exemption that baseball was given 60 years ago. (00:23:03) If there are very many more situations like the Bidwell thing in st. Louis you bet because that was just it was just disgraceful misconduct. There's no it was no excuse for it at all. This city had supported the Cardinals and verifying style for over over 20 years and there was just no justification for for that sort of thing happening. It wouldn't have to be Congress the antitrust division could step in as well. Yeah, I can see that happening because I don't think I don't I haven't done a study but I think that if you if you if you did you'd find that those 23 cities which have major league baseball the total population of this probably 70 to 80 80 million people which means that most of the of the nation is not very well served by the current Arrangement and I think in time it's quite likely that the other other areas will get sufficiently organized that they will Remove baseball's Monopoly position and order it to serve the whole country rather than just a big city, (00:24:09) you know the list of areas seeking expansion franchises right now has gotten pretty long. There's there's more than a dozen the both badly want Major League Baseball and certainly could support it in fine style. Does the prospect of a third League enter into play here at some point the old Continental League type of approach that forced an expansion 25 years ago. (00:24:26) The I think every Major League City should have should have a major league team. I mean II can't understand we had a caller earlier wondering if expansion is deluded Talent. Well, I mean, do you have any idea how many people a million people is a million people is just a phenomenally large number of people and I can't understand how people can think that if you choose the 25 best baseball players from among a million people. That's not a major league quality team the that you've got to go another Step Beyond that reasonably quality. I think any Major League City should have major league team and in order to accommodate to reach that goal. We've got we did we would have to add quite a number (00:25:10) of teams. Baseball writer Bill James author of The Bill James baseball abstract and the Bill James historical baseball abstract is our guest this afternoon on sport folio. I'm J.G. Preston Iran ksjn 1330. Our phone number of your questions for bill is 2276 thousand give us a jingle to 276 thousand will get you on the air with Bill James Bill. It looks like baseballs heading for a really nasty messy labor dispute in 1989 and a lot of the baseball people. I know are not at all sanguine of the chances of getting anything resolved before we get into a strike that could even potentially are talking about blow off the entire season. What are your Tarrant cards hold for the coming couple of years for baseball's Labor Relations. (00:25:51) This is recently gotten worse them. You know, that's another way in which we could reach the situation that I talked about in the article called Revolution. I mean if if we were to lose a whole season a competing League could easily spring up and baseball could lose its Monopoly position. It's in that way as well. Before the collusion started. I thought we were reaching a point at which the labor troubles were pretty much behind us the salaries that stabilized there was no reason for owners to be worried by Financial ruin as they legitimately could have been a couple of years earlier and then collusion started and collusion rulings and throw the whole thing back into a mess again. I don't know what's going to (00:26:43) happen. You make the point in this essay in the abstract that I thought was people don't think about it. But you say it's the players who have the credibility in baseball that Billy baseball is what it is because of the identity of the players not because of the team names of the uniforms or anything (00:26:56) else you bet and if there was a situation in which say the Minnesota Twins hired scabs to fill them between the uniforms and the players who are now the twins Went over to st. Paul and started their own team, you know, who would have all the credibility I mean Gary guy Yeti and Kent Hrbek and and Bert Blyleven would have all the credibility as major league players. The people that the twins were calling major league players would have no credibility. (00:27:22) Of course some of that all depends on how it comes about to I mean, you know, the way public relations works at least around here fans can pretty easily get turned off if they think they have millionaire cry babies out there and to see a real I mean a real backlash depending on how the situation evolved but clearly if the Twins were to quit and mass tomorrow and not be whining about anything in particular and then go on and Barnstormers the House of David or whatever that they take all the fans with them. Oh, yeah. It's a 1231 here on sport folio. We're going to pause just briefly and then come back and take some of your phone calls and questions for Bill James baseball writer here on sport Foley 02276 thousand is our phone. Number two, two seven six thousand the number to dial here on ksjn 1330. Good afternoon. This is Mark. I stood I hope you'll keep listening to ksjn throughout the afternoon today coming up. Clock it's the week in review. We'll recap the week's news from around the Twin Cities and around the world then at 3 o'clock this afternoon be with us for the best of midday this week. We'll go back to Wednesday's noon our feature and here in appearance by Minnesota state epidemiologist, Michael Strahan answering listener questions about the latest public health issues surrounding AIDS that's coming up this afternoon here on ksjn 1330. Thanks marking. We're in the process of paying the price for a beautiful Thursday and Friday with a rotten weekend official National Weather Service forecast has Breezy much cooler and mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of snow and rain showers might get up to 45 today and Wendy out of the Northwest 15 to 30 miles an hour partly cloudy tonight still a lingering chance of snow showers and lows probably below freezing tonight in the wind still blowing out of the Northwest at 10 to 15 chance of showers again, tomorrow partly cloudy highs in the upper 40s right now. It's 40 degrees in the Twin Cities. I'm J.G. Preston, you're listening this portfolio on ksjn 1330 and will go to the phones with some more questions for our guests. Baseball writer Bill James going to st. Paul next Roy Hi. How are you? (00:29:12) Hi, I think it was probably been engaged with it at the park last night. So reardon's record may still be (00:29:18) pure so I watched weird and commit one to berenguer did commit one but I later watched Reardon commit one (00:29:23) and in the same connection. I'd like to know what you think they'll love reliever or mysticism and the major leagues in the fact that many people consider rear than the twins Most Valuable Player. And also whether you've seen any recent science as to whether these st. Louis Cardinal organization is still deteriorating the yeah. The sides are still there on the Cardinals. They the Cardinals seem to be unable. I mean after I wrote what I wrote they did they did complete the trade of Lance Johnson Fidelio. They did something else they brought somebody North with them that didn't make any sense. I don't think the toilet they are Cardinals have made a good good decision in that organization the last 14 months, and I think they're probably going to have a bad year. (00:30:08) I liked Roy's phrase reliever mysticism because certainly Reardon has been treated as a god-like figure around here and frankly Kirby Puckett was my hands dumped it because the twins MVP last year, but now people talk about Lee Smith and those same hushed reverential tones that were reserved for Reardon a year ago. What do you make of the the whole stopper (00:30:26) fanaticism? Well, I think a relief pitcher as is as essential to a successful team as anybody else and and no more. So the you do here at said a lot that in the 80s you can't win without without a relief Ace, but if you look there any number of teams, which have one divisions and tenancy deep World Series in the 80s without relief Ace has the in 1986 the American League match up was between Boston and California, California lost their release a surly early in the year, Donnie Moore. He struggled a good part of the Year. Boston went through almost all the summer without having a relief Ace sure all the came around. The mid-august and gave them a good Bullpen to the last month and a half. But you know, I think a really good I really face is important. I also think it's important to have a second baseman important to have a third baseman and shortstop and that the really face is no more important than any of those other positions. (00:31:24) Speaking of Bullpen people a bill. How does the Royals bullpen seem to be shaping up this year? I was Watson plan to use those guys (00:31:30) Quisenberry at this time is really face and they're optimistic that he's regained form. He looked good in spring training. Look goodness. First outing the year. I think Gene Garber pits the last two innings last night and was very effective. He also apparently will get some of the saves it's worse than that. They don't really have assuming that blood black will be the first started. They don't really have a left-hander in the bullpen. So I don't think it's a great Bull Pen but Quisenberry could snap back (00:31:59) 2276 thousand is our phone number on sport folio. We're Fielding your questions for Bill James here this afternoon go to Minneapolis next. Hello Les. How are you? Just fine. (00:32:09) I don't answer maybe he knows one question that were sort of interested me is why the there with a Marion Laboratories Kaufman in his Made such bitter remarks about writing hertzog and they got rid of him and they said good riddance and so on another question, I don't like mr. Steinberg. He's not my type but isn't it true that Dave Winfield has started a Boy Scout who turns up with a girl on the side with an illegitimate child and he's got a tax dodging going on his foundation. He shows up once in a while in the Twin Cities and has a health screening and goes out and makes an appearance on a ball field for the Youth in other words. I wonder if when feel is really I saw him on TV and I heard him on the radio interview in which he played a real cozy about whether he go to another team. He wouldn't answer directly. He kept playing it, you know real Tootsie Pop I started stuff. It just didn't sound very good to me and I hope you're right about the 25 per million. Let's face it. There's like auto mechanics and doctors and lawyers there aren't that great many great people and I wonder if it's really true that Earth that many peoples who are capable of playing up to the top notch here people training (00:33:32) will tackle these one of the time they'll you pick the order (00:33:36) of the third. I don't know that there's any way to settle it here, but do you have any concept of how many people a million people are I mean, I went through this in the In the abstract, but if you started out with a group of about 250 people and shows the best athletes there and you chose made a league of eight at those teams and chosen All-Star team and the league of eight of those teams and chosen All-Star team and League of those eight of those all-star teams and chosen other All-Star team. I mean, you'd have to go through this process of forming a higher league and choosing an All-Star team from that higher League. I think is it 10 times or nine times before you reached a million people now that's an awfully good athlete and one can demonstrate statistically and one can show that the difference between the the what they're 700 athletes and the we're talking about playing Major League Baseball the 700th fastest runner in the country and the 2000 fastest runner in the country in a hundred yard dash is I'm sure less than tenth of a second once you get that far into A distribution curve of talent there just isn't any (00:34:49) difference. That's why I think people have problems bill is getting that far because I think when people think about when they say the words Major League level they think they're talking about Dale Murphy. I think they're talking about Frank Viola. But yeah, but you're not I mean if you look at the last five or six guys on a roster, it's a whole different (00:35:04) story. Yeah, that's true. But I'll Stand another way to look at it is say 1930. There were 16 major league teams, but the population the country was something like a hundred and eight million about 10% of those black were black and weren't eligible to play in the majors Lakes at that time. So you talking about drawing 16 teams from less than a hundred million people which means that about each one team represents about each six million candidates the now with expansion because the population is so much larger and because black players are eligible. It's one representing nine million. So actually the ratio hasn't That it hasn't decreased. There are more candidates for his job than there were before plus the fact that we now drying so many athletes from other countries another way another perhaps a better illustration of this. I need what makes a major league athlete is desire and opportunity. It isn't you don't have to it isn't being gifted with phenomenal tools and the best evidence of that is San Pedro de mockery which is a city of about a hundred and fifty thousand people or something which has produced. I don't know what 18 major league players or something easily. Yeah, the many of whom are just superb players the because it's a place in which you playing baseball is terribly important and they do a lot of it God's got they do it well, but as being a shortage of there being a shortage of athletes who are capable of playing at that level, it's just an absurd position there. There isn't any difference between the caliber athletes you have now. At the caliber of athletes that you would have if you had 300 teams, I mean if you instantly expanded to three hundred teams, then of course, there'd be a loss because there'd be a decline in the you wouldn't have time to educate those people properly and train them. But if you if you expanded gradually you could expand very much much larger than you have now and share the knowledge of how to play Within that group you could reach a much larger level without any diminution Talent as long-winded answer they Field is a saint but what on Earth is Steinbrenner thinks that how does he think that he's helping the team by ragging this guy? I mean, I don't understand what wouldn't it make more sense if he's really interested in winning their wouldn't it make more sense for him to get off side and Winfield's case and try to reach some sort of an A. Okay. We're all in this together agreement rather than splitting the team into warring camps of pro Winfield and anti Winfield. I mean, I don't understand why it what he thinks he's doing is trying to assert a legal perogative that he doesn't have I mean when he signed when field of that contract he gave away the right to trade him and by God if Winfield doesn't agree the trade he doesn't have to Stein burn is trying to assert a legal perogative, which he doesn't happen to have so, you know, he's going to he's in a situation in which he's losing his buddy's head up against the wall and why he doesn't have the brains to see it and stop is something that nobody understands except him. (00:38:11) And that was as far as the Kaufman Herzog. Yeah feelings are (00:38:14) concerned. That wasn't personal. The went on there which I've never really gotten into the press and I don't I don't know really what they are. There were some personal conflicts between the two of them that I don't think anybody would understand. (00:38:28) That's why mr. Kaufman it would it would still have some ill will towards. Mr. Herzog (00:38:33) at this. Yeah this they don't they're not friends. (00:38:35) It's 18 minutes before one o'clock here on ksjn 1330 you listening this portfolio. I'm J.G. Preston and my guest is baseball writer Bill James 2276 thousand is a phone number to call if you have a question for Bill 2276 thousand bill if we could talk for just a minute about the Oakland A's I have gained a reputation as being one of the western hemispheres biggest Dave Parker Bashers here in the last six months, but judging from your essay in the abstract about the A's I gather you agree that it's hard to see what Dave Parker at this stage in his career can do that will actually help the Oakland A's (00:39:07) that's right. It's very hard. I mean they already have Canseco never to have McGuire. There's not a lot of point in having three guys like them (00:39:14) and frankly what what Parker really realistically expect to produce. I mean, you know, it would be one thing if he could hit 30 homers and hit 300 still but especially in that context and that ballpark he be lucky to do half of that. (00:39:26) Yeah. He's a good cat have a terrible (00:39:29) year. There are people around here boy. They think ever since he's got to Dave Parker and Don Baylor. They're just you know, God's Gift. They're just one step away from being right up with the 27 Yankees. I just don't understand (00:39:39) it. Right I said either Bob Welch helps that team a lot. They need is not Welch amen, but but I can't see the park or Baylor's going to do anything for me. (00:39:48) So everybody around here is either picking Oakland or Kansas City and while some people will pick the twins ahead of one of the other most people in the Twin Cities seem to be firmly convinced that the twins are no better than the third best team behind those two. You may initially point in the abstract. They'll kind of creating the case for the Seattle Mariners. I think that's an argument worth the condensing and (00:40:08) repeating. Well, the Mariners have a lot of talent and I think the Mariners will have the best year they've ever had if you get over 500 I finish over 500 if you get over 500 nail West you got a chance to win a lot of good young players guys that maybe the country hasn't heard of like Ray Quinones and Mickey Brantley Mark Langston, of course people beginning to understand catch on they've got two catchers Dave Valley and Scott Bradley who are probably two of the five best catchers in the American League third. Baseman Presley is in many ways comparable to Brooks Robinson is a player the just an outstanding team. (00:40:48) The question is will they finally break the magic 500 mark (00:40:51) this well, they got the weaknesses too. (00:40:53) Hmm, two two seven six thousand is our phone number your questions for Bill James 2276 thousand phones ringing right now and we'll get you on the air and we got about 15 minutes to take care of your questions as well. If if you'd like to get in on the discussion one of the highlights of the abstract this year bill you got right into the discussion about the best player in baseball. And of course, it's that can have many meanings too many peoples, but I thought that was kind of interesting that Wade Boggs was the guy you came up with because it's very hard to knock anything. Mr. Boggs does (00:41:20) 350 and They start hitting home runs. Well, what else you would have been a good third (00:41:29) basement. Do you feel like he's got a chance to maintain a 20 homers a year type of level now as you made a real change in his in his game. (00:41:36) Well, I mean he announced last spring before anyone knew that it was going to be a so-called lovely ball season that he was going to hit more home runs. So I he's not the type of person who says something like that unless he he has a reason for saying it. So yeah, I think he's I think he's gonna hit for hit home (00:41:53) runs. He backs it up with the bad. That's for sure. Now, we got some caller standing by for Bill James here on sport folio will go to st. Paul next John. Hi. Thanks for calling. Hi (00:42:03) Bill. I've been a fan of yours for a number of years. Now. I really like your abstract. It's a shame that you won't be writing it next year. But I don't think J.G. Ever got his credit for a really making the Twins win the pennant this (00:42:17) year. All right, what did I do? (00:42:19) Well after you piss Bill James off that one time, I wrote a scathing article about the Twins and I think it really perked up we would both love to a lot of claim credit, but I doubt that there's a realistic interpretation or (00:42:32) whatever if it were I'd settle for half of a half a share from the World Series (00:42:34) checks. Yes, but it with you but I want you to settle the controversy around our office about Tom Bernanke. I know your book says that he had a big runs created. Was it 90 something? I don't know this year, but (00:42:48) I'll look it up keep keep (00:42:50) talking but around the office everybody says, but he doesn't hit during the prime time. Do you have numbers on like Victory important RBIs or or but they book a great American baseball stat book. You can thumb through a copy in your local bookstore when it gets here the it would have information bike all what he had in the late Innings of close games. What'd he hit with runners in scoring position and we contain that information not only for last year, but what he's done over a period of four years and that would be the best way to answer that question. How about haven't seen a copy of yet? It said it's not printed so I can't can't tell you. Yeah, I'll tell you what, I think this guy hits Sixth and down in the order and he hits after a bunch of other power hitters after guy Eddie and Hrbek and all those guys and he does have odd combinations. He it's 32 homers and drives an 80 runs or something, but I don't think that there are an awful lot of people out there who pays for it at least in scoring position. I think he probably bats an awful lot of times when without without a good opportunity to drive in runs. I think if he hits third he'd probably driving a hundred and ten (00:43:59) runs. I mean, you know, here's a guy I don't have been I have not personally always been the kind of person to Bernanke over the years, but here's a guy he made me you'll never be the best player on a championship team, but he's perfectly serviceable. I mean, that's right. He does a job defensively he can hold up his end of the bat as a guy hitting sixth on a championship team. I have no problem with that whatsoever. Yeah. You just can't expect too much of the (00:44:20) guy. Yeah. I wonder if the somehow you'd like to break up the lineup and so he didn't follow all the other power hitters, but I'm not sure what the right way to do. It would be (00:44:33) back to the phones for some more questions for Bill James here on sport folio. Apple Valley the next stop. Hi Jim. (00:44:38) Hi, I want to ask. Mr. James. I don't know if he makes predictions or not. But obviously the twin statistically last year probably shouldn't have one and gone as far as they have or they did and I'm wondering what he saw for them last year and what he sees for them this year statistically started the year. I think what I wrote about them was that the twin should be better this year, but then they should have been better last year and the year before and I did not think that they would win. I thought they'd win a year or two earlier are the I like the twins a lot about 85 or 86, but when they didn't do it, they didn't do it I gave up on them. I think I was denied. I was on your show about last July and I said, I that time that I thought the twins it when is that (00:45:23) right? Well you did but you you thought The show is going off the air you thought you'd never be on again and just thought you'd do something. Nice for our listeners. It was a great gesture on your part Bill. Don't get me (00:45:32) wrong. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, it was awfully nice of you to stay on the air. (00:45:38) Just just let you take the (00:45:39) credit. All right for this year this year opening spring training. I thought they had a good chance because their Frontline Talent is so good. I mean guy Eddie and pockets and and Viola they're not very many teams that have Frontline Talent equivalent to that the but I really think that they blew it when they didn't make more of an imaginative attempt more aggressive attempt to restructure their starting rotation. And I think the starting rotation will pull them out of it. What do you see for the West than if I were to be right about the AL West it would be the first time but I think Bob Welch helps Oakland quite a bit and Oakland is a Contender Kansas City is a serious Contender and I think Seattle is a serious Contender is thanks (00:46:31) thanks to call Jim appreciate it. I'll tell you one guy who made a great big difference in this twins ballclub. Last year bill was was Tom Kelly because I think the world of the guy and he's you point out in your essay about the twins that you notice the difference in aggressiveness on the team. He's just as that kind of guy. He's he's got a real impact on how his players play the (00:46:51) game you had you had to notice it. I mean the Twins were always a by-the-numbers tape and here last year you'd see her back tagging up at first and going to second on a Fly ball to center field or something. You just never saw them doing that kind of thing before (00:47:04) I have to admit. I do think you're a little bit harsh about the the defense that the fat man Hrbek provides at first base. I know he looks like a whale but watching the guy all season he gets he be surprised how far you can get away from the bag also and I don't know how much this enters into it but as a stretching scoob and I think he's the best in the American League. That's just my brief defensive, Kent Hrbek. Okay. Also, I have to give my my defensive Jeff bigger because I notice you brought Jeff up in the twins, essay is why didn't Tom Kelly start up again? I had the had the pleasure of watching the game that he pitched. I don't know if it's if it's possible to I'm not a real I'm not trained baseball man. But even I could tell Jeff bigger was just brutal in that game. He just got lucky. He was really lucky. He's behind 2 and o on every hitter is most most nerve-wracking game. I ever watched in my life. (00:47:51) Yeah. Yeah, buddy. I mean, he'd had a pretty good year at AAA. (00:47:55) He had he had with this analogy (00:47:57) team started negro and crawl today were just terrible the it seemed to be that be worth a try the start him again and see if maybe it was lucky again. (00:48:06) See if they'll strike twice say we've got another caller on the line for Bill James here on sport Foley 02276 thousand if you have one in mind for William and we'll go to Anoka. Hello, Erica (00:48:17) a couple questions one is a National League East question, I just like you to talk a little bit about that the Cardinals in the Mets and I know I've been listening. So I've heard you here say some of the things about the (00:48:31) Cardinals. Oh, you should get the abstract Erica and see just exactly what bill says about that guy you'll love it. (00:48:37) But you know on the clerk thing, I mean, I wasn't real happy with Clark going and being replaced by Horner, but I'm wondering about you know, when you talked about Bernie and ski in the Run production type thing. I'm wondering if you're giving credit to some of the other Cardinal players. I mean they had some fantastic runs produced, you know with hitting around Clark of McGee did and and and so and Pendleton did and several of those things. So I'm wondering if if there's perhaps not as much credit given to some of the other Cardinal players, but on let me ask this question also answer that question. The my criticisms Collins had almost nothing to do with Jack Clark as I'm not down on them because they lost that Clark that is that's that's hardly a factor at all. Okay, so that there is okay then let me ask Mike Lynn. And then maybe you can just chat a little bit about the National League Eastern and answer you when you said the twins didn't make a more aggressive attitude with adding a starting pitcher and I agree with you that that's a big problem. But then how do you reconcile that with the fact that you say you never treat a position player for a for a picture? I mean what else could they do our in the time to think about that because the debate is always been will burn ants. He's the one that you can trade in order to get a quality starting pitcher. I'll listen on the air. Thank you. I didn't say you never traded position player for for a picture. You don't pin you may not have made the absolute but you tend to talk about the fact that pitchers are so iffy if you trade a if you have a position player, you know, it's more predictable you and and so you can make an inference there that it's a dicey gamble to trade the opposite of what Kansas City. Did you talk? Well in the city being a good trade even though Jackson was good, but that You know, it's a dicey going the other way and I did hear you say that it's dicey going the other way last year. I think on the program or something. Okay, say something about that and then also nationally. Well the twins had two pitchers who had good years at AAA last year. I think the names are Ben and Jordan Roy Smith. They both came up Pitch one game and pitched at least their line scores were pretty we're pretty good. Although Hostess years has been there was just lucky. That's right. So there are a lot of other ways to try to repair a pitching staff other than trading a picture. There's there's what's called free agency Jack Morris after all wanted to what a bitch for you year ago. The you could have traded a you could have traded a prospect for a prospect and you have Gene Larkin. For example, you could have traded Larkin for a pitcher who was a prospect the you could have moved berenguer back in the starting rotation. I mean, there are a lot of different ways. The problem could have been approached. I wouldn't have said what I did if you had tried any of those, but the problem is that you went North with two guys on your roster that I feel certain will fail and that's in my opinion is just wasn't very a very sound approach. It's like say we won we won last year with this with these two guys here. So we're going to try it again (00:51:50) National League East (00:51:51) and that's an awfully strong the method. Well, the Mets are not a good defensive team. And their Bullpen last year was shaky but given with all of that. They're starting pitching is so strong and their offense is so strong that if the shorts rookie shortstop, Kevin elster is as good as people say is and if they get Gary Carter out of the middle of the batting order, I have to think that that team had an awfully good chance to win a hundred games are more than a hundred games. The Cardinals have just been making one mistake after another. I mean, it doesn't make I don't understand they traded three guys for Tony Pena all three guys that they gave up love all your done and Van slyke had good years paying you did not have a good year after that. They extended taneous contract rather. They have a good trip like catch your name Pak na Z, but they for some reason extended pain is contracted a very high figure I thought Just to avoid admitting that they had made a mistake. The way the Warner signing was handled was just appalling. I mean, they told the Press they were talking to her to what to Horner Whitey Herzog learned about it in the papers rip Bob Horner and then they said and then they talk to Herzog about it. I didn't think that was exactly the right way to handle it. The I don't think horn is a good player. Anyway, I don't think he'll help the team. I don't think he's the kind of player that they need. So to me the that organization has just been going through. I don't know what's gone wrong, but I think in the last year or so something has gone terribly wrong in that organization and that will show up on the field this (00:53:43) year. We have time for one last quick question for baseball writer Bill James Iran's portfolio and we'll go to st. Paul to get it. Hi Jerry. (00:53:50) Hi. Thanks. I got a question about the Orioles in a sea of Bill thinks the soil organization is turned it around with their moves last season order to think they still have a long time at the At the bottom. Well, I mean, yeah, they got a long time at the bottom. They may have turned it around they seem to be doing some things that make a little more sense. They've got Jeff Stone now, you know, it's a kid who could develop into a pretty good outfielder. The I think that they are showing some more signs of good judgment, but I don't think the talent base is there for them to improve very rapidly. So I think it'll be three or four years before they're back. It's at the top of that division. We have a good general manager now or probably yeah from what I know about and I think he did a good job in in a difficult situation in Chicago. (00:54:41) Thanks for the call Jerry appreciate it. We'll bill. We're sorry to hear that. You're going to leave the annual baseball abstract behind. I know speaking just for myself that I have greatly enjoyed it over the last seven years. Oh my goodness. It doesn't really seem that long. Yeah, but we look forward to seeing what you're going to be pulling out of your sleeve in the future because I know you're not Hiring at your tender age. So I'm not time for some other projects and some other things too. Right? Huh. That's right. You will look at staying in the baseball business somehow with part of this or is that (00:55:11) I'll continue to write about (00:55:13) baseball. I'm good. So as you sit in your hammock there in Winchester, Kansas, you'll still have the radio on and baseball on the brain that will do that will look forward to the fruits of your Labor's bill and I really appreciate your taking the time to join us here on sport folio. All right. Thanks for having me on thanks very much Bill Bill James baseball writer and author of The Bill James baseball abstract in the Bill James historical baseball abstract Our Guest Iran's portfolio. My thanks to David O'Neill who takes care of me in a terrific manner gives me cold water and answers the phone and everything else. Thanks to associate producer Sue winking who made sure the trains ran on time again today boy. I'll tell you that to Jeffrey Walker our technical wizard who was briefly pinch-hit for by Scott Bridgewater, but Jeff was able to re-enter the game under a Special Rule. I'm J.G. Preston. Thanks for listening to us here on Sports folio. Oh and tune in next week for more baseball talk on sport folio with New Yorker baseball writer Roger Angell. It's coming up on one o'clock here on ksjn. 1330 Minneapolis-Saint Paul Associated Press News is next and then we have the week in review.