Get older people cannot turn off the radios in the rest of us. Will listen to sportfolio here on ksjn 1330 MJG Preston talk about football today. I'm going to try to make up for my lack of attention to the professional game here in the past with my guests the co-author of the and I've actually been a lot of this book and I find it interesting that well done Tome football by the numbers of the serious fans Guide to the NFL also a columnist for the Village Voice which in and of itself qualifies in for intellectual status Allen Berra is with his today on portfolio Allen welcome and thank you very much for coming all of this.Sure, you bet the boys the boys stuff, right? Modesto back to the regular season at least yeah, that was what I guess really started to lose me in pro football when they went to six exhibition games because at one point there were 14 regular season games in six exhibition games. I need a few more players and its own money. To do with the NFL so we can say whatever we want to yes questions. They are up there. I should write down these Snappy intro so I don't sit here and stumble. But all I can say is they do an excellent job of analysis there people who think that I personally am obsessed with Statistics which isn't exactly true but I am always intrigued by good analysis and if you can use to testicle data to support your analysis and there aren't many other kinds of good analysis. I don't think then so much the better. There's a lot more commentary in the book than there is relevant statistics to use in football. So this is not quite like some people have been comparing us to the bill James baseball abstract Baker baseball. He's relatively few statistics because there's only a few positions in football week and they going to make any sense. And even there they have to be interpreted and in this is where you I think they're helping to advance the discussion among football fans Allen by your proper definition in application of these relevant statistics. We will give you a chance to get into his hour goes on but I'd like to think anything else is controversy in cleaners of old myths and basically that's what we're trying to run the program here every 6 months and I was referred to him as baseball writer rather than baseball statistician because she's a writer primarily by and so is Allen Berra folks. So if you like to give on your best shot today with your question about the Vikings the NFL their stuff about the college game in the book if you've read either last year's book or is this yours book on the stand? It should be out there and then drywall knocking NFL most of it take a knock in my publisher and it's the last minute they decided 20 30 pages are really annoying because my mother who is from that your area. Am I in Maryland is listening right now find Marilyn, Minnesota fans. 37 Pages what's in there is good, but it's not weird to have an extra picture that is going to be almost as much colleges Pro and next. You're not going back to Prentice Hall good the phone number out in all this it's 2276 thousand so we can associate producer replied sarcastically way to go Preston to 276 thousand the phone number to call for our football discussion today with Allen Berra co-author of football by the Numbers at the serious fans guy to the NFL and also to the college game just not as much do two seven six thousand the phone number to call and we'll talk to Sue and we'll put you on the gear with Allen Barry. Allen is you know, because you have some ties to this area where all just Stone Cold phonetic viking fans up here. The Vikings left us sorely disappointed with your performance last season, but your comment about them in the book as far as our 1986 season was concerned. I very flattering. Yes, we think in fact that given effective they were on offense and defense relative to the rest of the league that they they were really Underachievers, but you certainly have to say the last couple of Seasons. They've been a dramatic turnaround that there are some of us don't remember the last year and we we do appreciate the difference. A big reason I suppose I think it's kind of a semi education educated person and maybe you can expand on this whether I'm right about this or not. It would seem to be a big reason for the Vikings dramatic Improvement as shown last year was the surprisingly out-of-context performance of Tommy Kramer. I mean, he's been a solid NFL starting quarterback the last year he's going to go way way over is established level of previous seasons. That's that's really tough to say one thing about football position like quarterback is that it's it's affected by everything else that happened to the field that's true in baseball to but still largely batteries up here facing a picture at the whole season long and you can judge him pretty much on now within certain limits in certain kinds of interpretation on what he does when you're facing the picture but a quarterback you take Tommy Kramer and you put it in those games where he's going to be behind at half time or behind in the third quarter. That's not change us that you can get sacked a lot more going through a lot more interceptions did things go to key off in the quarterback. You take the Vikings last season and most of their games were very close. Well and if this is Tommy Kramer completely different game for the real Improvement, there was the offensive line to better receivers and let's face it the Improvement on the defense which would put him in a completely different context in each game. So you think there are circumstances Explain the drop from 26 interceptions to tensei. I need an easier way to pass in the third quarter when the game is so we say 20 to 20 and you have a second five. It's it's a lot easier to pass in that situation. But it is when you're down 20-7 210 and it's third down 9 from your analysis interceptions both offensively and defensively RR maybe the most important factor in determining success or failure in the NFL week. Everybody was that early on in the book called me on the four basic fallacies of pro football and there was things that your announcers and coaches and everybody else that told you for years and this is what I want you to go internet here. Sir, Playboy the video the NFL that we we don't read that in, Minnesota Public Radio. At least not unless you have the Braille Edition that point our weekly pick four basic fallacies about pro football and Thrifty Buncombe in the one that I think it's very important. The fourth one is not there all turnovers are created equal today on actually since 1961 25 year study from 61 to 86. We were very surprised with always been told that bad teams from more than good teams to it's not true a matter of chance. Sometimes a good team like the Giants last year will have for almost nowhere lost fumbles at all. But that that tends to be just trying to figure out if you can count on that from one year to the next random element. I'm just pretty much a 50/50 thing that is on the other side of the interception total good teams are almost always on the plus side bad teams are almost always in the minus side. That's a long never going to change. Intercepted run back for a touchdown instead of 90% chance of losing one's portfolio of the football by the numbers that serious fans guy to the NFL. He also writes a regular column about the pro and college football for the Village Voice to 276 thousands are phone number to call your football questions for Allen Berra. What was the Vikings opening their exhibition season tonight? It's kind of terrible to talk about that In the Heat of this baseball pennant race. I don't know but it's interesting your game there between the Saints and Vikings are real contrast and two teams that could easily be the surprise of the entire league this really get a chapter in the book last year where we we talked about the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs with 10-6 records. They were actually teams in the mirror. They were direct opposites of each other Cincinnati has the best offense probably in all of the NFL last season and a terrible defense and they were 10 6 Kansas City have an excellent defense are just absolutely awful offense. And what we said was if you took the the offense from Cincinnati and the defense from Kansas City put them on the same team. You would have had just about the New York Giants by take the Cincinnati defense in the city office. You have a team Morrison Tampa Bay won the Vikings and Saints although It's really had an awful offense. But if I can actually a fairly good defense last year, but you take that the Vikings offense and you put it with the Saints defense. You got a Super Bowl team right there obviously know they have to do to improve go to Superbowl this year folks. If you want to shoot a question by Allen Berra 2276 thousand of that phone number to 276 thousand say, what did you make of the Vikings decision to take a d j Dozier with their first pick in the draft. This year was a great back one of the best of the 80's in college ball, and maybe a lot of people didn't get to really experience that watching on TV because of all those injuries and I think he's seldom carry the ball 30 times a game. I'm just skeptical about the I think maybe the most controversial thing that we talked about. Is that one of our four basic fallacies. Do you need a great running game to win the NFL? That's absolute baloney that the truth. Is that going back for the first of Vince Lombardi championship team in 1961, almost all NFL teams tend to pretty much run about the same level of effectiveness of an any given season about three-quarters of the teams are going to run the ball with him 6/10 of 4 yards per carry. That's not enough to really make a difference. I'm the last year you saw the Cincinnati with the best running game in the NFL game 5 yards of crack and they did make a good team. That didn't make the playoffs in the NFL has had the 1980s and they go 11-5 and other couple Place away from the qualifying for the Super Bowl every year in the NFL that I would use a draft pick that high. Forever for a running back but you know, you mentioned that Russian the ball isn't necessarily go hand-in-hand with winning. But how about the passing offense? Is it true that the winning teams in the NFL should be the team to throw the ball most effectively. Offense in the National Football League in passing. I'll just say that I don't mean a thing. You're it's total like a team always it has the most passing yards in the team win. Sometimes it's the opposite there because a team with that with the bad defense will be passing passing passing just to catch up all the time. That's what that's why they have such an impressive tote we need is passing Effectiveness way to win the NFL. If you get a haven't really either with your good passing game in a whip down the field score some points early or have your I'd like to bearings and drives did Lester have your defense in the passes in front of the points for you then in the second half the more you're behind the more you can run the ball. I'll give you a chance to win the clock on your phone and I was rushing is basically a defensive weapon and I think most most fans understand this but most announcers don't seem to a they still talk about where unless I once I was number two in the league in rushing and they're going to go out there today and then try and use that rushing game. I need below you. Don't win by going out there and controlling the ball and moving down the field for 3/4 of a lead. Once you get it because running the ball keep the court going that's why winning teams come to lead the league in rushing yardage your head more. So I would have to say useless least after that then games where Tony Dorsett rush for 100 yards the Cowboys were 25 out of 25. I mean the Cowboys weren't winning because his 100-yard because the other way around all together. Effectively stop the other team from passing out. When you talk about passing Effectiveness, you're not you're not necessarily in the cords that the the Labyrinthian NFL passing ranking system is the be-all and end-all for trying to evaluate tickets. We we figured out it is really funny one wants to rape passing Effectiveness. No, I'm not taking into account tangibles or not rating for defects per se but you want to write passing effective this grab your pencil and I'll tell you how it's real simple. You can do it Monday morning much easier than the NFL Reddit. Does number of yards passing / number of passes attempted does that? exceptions rate of intent What quarterback has intercepted? Okay. And how are you finishing yards per pass? You have a great offense. You automatically have a great offense. There's no way you want. This will score low Point touchdown passes, but it really doesn't make that much difference. You can't say that the Dan Marino is better than Boomer Esiason because he has 16 more touchdown passes team will get his points whether you run them in past the minute you get points if you're high in yards per pass in low and then rated at receptions so I can pewter Mad Max. Would take too long to go into a fight. So please don't. Play some good. So what you do is this you take the number of yards a pastor gets subtract 54 each and reception and then simply divide the result by the number of passes and that gives you your your your past winning Bingo do not end amazingly the teams at any time that's better going to be. Team Effectiveness, he have to figure tax and subtract the backyard and attempt to say whether it's actually it is an individual stats for team stats so that we don't include this actually forgot individual pastors with only when you're 18, you're listening to the Minnesota Public Radio. Ksjn. 1330 Minneapolis-Saint Paul MJG Preston and my guess this afternoon is Allen Berra co-author of football by the Numbers the serious fans Guide to the NFL to 276 thousand of our phone number for your questions for Allen. We are proving one of three things here this afternoon. We are proving a that none of you care about pro football, which is why I never talk about it be that the fact that I don't care about pro football has driven all the football fans away over the course of the month or see that nobody listens to this program. Anyway, at least nobody with the energy or gumption to go pick up the telephone. Yes, Allen. They're still dazed and reeling from these Revelations about pro football from Allen Barrett. Now folks. I'm not shy Allen as you can tell is an energetic Pleasant and informed person and I can carry this conversation. But if you know my knowledge and pro football is very shallow. So for those of you who really want something deep Champion to 276 thousand the phone number to 276 Thousand Oaks pretty good. Say Allen one of the other great fallacies that you try to expose her in the book. Is that the it takes a running game to set up the passing game. Would you like to talk about that for a little bit? We can't hear radio football broadcast without the announcer say that and I believe it believe that you even by going out there and controlling the ball. And yeah, we're passing game going when we when we get the running game going diet. It doesn't work that way. It's it. It just doesn't the running game. The effectiveness of a running game has nothing to do with the effectiveness of the passing game if you can pass that you pass It's that simple by running and they're better than we can watch the first and you have a lot of opportunities to rushing yards accounting. So you automatically great passing game apparently in and I know you you have evidence to the contrary so I know you can explain it so that there's nothing about the existence of the running game as a weapon that all their defensive strategy and tactics to the point where it improves or decreases the effectiveness of the passenger. Look at the teams every year like the Rams. They get five yards in 4.8 yards is how the defense would handle the the passing in Lakewood open something up. Absolutely not I need the Rams have one of the worst passing games and football in there and have the entire decade maybe Center, was it was passing well about the 79 years ago in fact the effectiveness. Supposed to total yards rushing and I think the only thing I can think of that we can shut down their passing game. Are they going to run the ball to the naive of us in the audience that a lot of times the teams that do well in yards per Rush a pretty rotten teams. Indianapolis Colts led the NFL getting 5 yards of crack and they and the great rushing attack game Baltimore Hoops Indianapolis Colts. You just can't get that right? Can you go ahead and do it in our phone number of the provocative Allen Berra co-author a football by the numbers is discussing at the National Football League with his head. He can discuss the college game as well. Don't be shy to 276 thousand. This is really embarrassing. My Outburst of a moment ago has elicited a collar. Can hit that TVs are yawns. Maybe who is been too lazy to go to the phone to call this program for a year-and-a-half and today feel so sorry for me that she's gone to the phone. Hello Jan. How are you? Yes, I mean, you're right. You took the words right out of my mouth buddy. I said I don't even like football. What am I doing calling you? What are you doing listening? You go back and get your hair done again. I've been listening to on Saturdays for years if you just keep moving your time slot. I have to be on Sunday on we never watch Almanac unless I'm on it. I know that you've been honest with me all along about that JJ each other to high heaven. He didn't know I'm really glad it was some questions, but I'm just going to start with one and I'd like to hear Allen's assessment of the football game stand that television stations. Go for it Allen. Remember Bob Costas from football live broadcast. Allen said he was hollering in my headphones so I couldn't hear you ask a question again. Bob Costas, Canada's baseball all the time for NBC. Okay, and Does not have his brain programmed before he goes on the are my favorite Costas moments ago during it a jet Cincinnati Game trophy who is doing the game with the former Cincinnati player, a tragic flaw until we have an earthquake or something and it's for my friend magazine. We talked about the difference between the different. Bob Costas with the run the playback in slow motion and say now watch how precise he makes his route right in between two Defenders. What can go up in the air and come back toward the balls. So he screams out the Defenders. He's actually moving in the direction of the ball and he can't resist Howard Cosell with a human being what he tells you about his charity work in the offseason was one of the few that really tell you what was going on in a football game in a way that would Enlighten you and make you actually want to pay attention to watch something closer. There's almost nobody around today in football baseball. So he's one of them are we get Tim McCarver here in New York and your stance baseball. What is a whole breed of a really good young short baseball announcers and understand the game, but most football commentary is just a disgrace. It's a massive cliches. It's a massive local stuff is usually partisan. No, shame was rooting for the the team and they keep acting the same stuff over and over I got there. There's almost nobody else mentions a good football commentator my God, I think he's casting bronze somewhere going on the record about spotting things are letting you know before the play what was happening that was going on during the game. Toy this another exploit this later on if they keep doing it that Scott was very good and he already had almost no influence on this current generation football broadcasters 6000. 2276 thousand is a phone number here on portfolio Allen Berra the guest the co-author of football by the numbers that serious fans guide of the NFL. I'm going to indulge you on by letting you ask one more question. I do have one more question. You are indulging me JJ. I don't deserve this is asking and shut up to maybe could be could be. He's not. Well, I'll ask him this anyway, how good are his questions of you to 276 thousand? Okay, I believe it or not. I have read most of this which was kind of shocked the people who know me, you know, I don't read a lot of football stuff. But what the heck I got it for free and it was good. So In this book our purpose is really not to confuse or or shot out. The non-fatal we're trying to do is bring people into think they might like football. It was explained in a way that makes sense when I can follow from the ground up. I mean, I would like to reach people would have never just too complex or complicated and install them this and just make more sense on TV. I'm going to lie down here on the couch for a while. There was a time in my life when I was actually quite a rabid follower pro football. I was in high school. I lived on Long Island. I was a pass for a Giants fan in those days in the early seventies. And yeah. Well, yeah we had not lived in, Minnesota. Well, yeah, that's when it started and Homer Jones started for me. And then I kind of carried through with the Giants there while we lived in New York for awhile by Staind. I used to watch one or two or more NFL games on Sunday and know about all the teams and really care about it and then probably course by the time I went to college and didn't have as much time to pay attention. I really kind of fell away from pro football and was never tempted to go back. I think there's somebody went to baseball 2 game for young boys and old man, but what's happened in recent years with the intelligent analysis of baseball the people like that Tom Boswell and it's one a lot of people back to the other really the the more aesthetic pleasures of baseball still wear like baseball for the reasons besides and baseball swing back. A lot of fans too many games were flooded with the authorities really reduce the overall play the Colts. Remember Krishna Cowboys world games like that are Super Bowl projection and Colton. Your questions now 227-6000 number on portfolio if it's busy try back later, cuz I think they're all full right now. We'll go to far-flung Saint Francis High there Tim. So would you correct that? It says it just says Tim up. There is name is Jim. Go ahead Jim. No problem. Deteriorated any of the Teen royalty in those ranks, and if you would rate if you if you are knowledgeable about Tennessee football if you were right the top five quarterbacks little free advice. Okay, go ahead. It would be a good idea to give somebody a brief explanation of what fantasy football is in baseball where you choose the players after your team you draft them and they have the system where you can go by what your player actually does during the season like Eric Davis to get drafted Derrick Davis at the end of the year. He can be very good acquisition for your your rotisserie league baseball team because he's going to want it before you come home runs that kind of thing. You you play games week do we can use statistics brush on the actual performance of your players that we can those games football is a rotisserie League fantasy football. On my way to strengthen. I'll say just my only to find out that a lot of people using are booked for round for Fantasy Football. If you take for instance Warner away from the Seattle Seahawks shaquem on the Kansas City Chiefs. He's not going to have the same numbers. But in this game you can take her Warner and drafting on your team. And of course it whatever numbers he gets with Seattle count for your team. Even if you called the Indianapolis Colts official name Happens to take into account both touchdown scoring and and yardage how many how much yards you gain in a given game? And then you get a certain amount of points based on that question. That is the best wide receiver wide receiver in the National Football League, but you would get in a real game or Wednesday with the LA Rams. It's simply because they don't pass that much. So that tells you how much your players circumstances on this particular team stats. Where is in baseball? Yeah, I can change according to park. You're still going to get your six hundred times? The only chance you have to work with all the backs with c. That is dependent on the kind of can you play with so I would say yeah, it's it's terrific fun. Friday really doesn't that have fantasies a good word for it? Cuz it really doesn't have anything to do with the real world equestrian about the quarterbacks. I'll give you our top 10 real quickly ready Tommy Kramer the number one according to our pass efficiency rating last year in the NFL. Number one. We had Boomer Esiason. I'm trying not to laugh at Jim Plunkett, even though he didn't he wasn't around for that long. And John Elway her when's Golden Boy barely crept in the top 10 quarterback in the NFL. Easley phones are still ringing and I want to get to somebody else and maybe we'll get back to try to crack the LA facade here a little bit later on. Jerry Rice without about the phone number Allen Berra co-author a football by the numbers are guests on sportfolio here on ksjn. I'm JG Preston College seems like more dominant. I'm one more to the passing game and also a different question. Does he have statistics about how important the kicking game is? And can you write that take your pic and anywhere you want their Ellen? 79 day passes rules, excuse me to liberalize the four teams that were not like I couldn't recruit all the caliphate of the Michigan or Ohio State for the quickest way to training program. football players you certainly may person get clobbered by Southern Carol in the other Rose Bowl and I think something happened in the Alabama years earlier touchdowns against Alabama and suddenly everybody changed their ideas about You really look at it closer. You'll find out that most winning teams are in college football are still primarily rushing teams win a National Championship. Like I did three years ago. No business also looks that way when you see Vinny Testaverde last year, but you saw what happened when she passing most of the best college teams are still going to be rushing team. The reason for that. Play simply the average NFL team. How good you are those are the New York Giants are still there? That could be the worst team in the NFL level account. There is still a lot closer than it's going to be if let's say Oklahoma plays the University of Southern New Mexico and Arizona or something. I mean Oklahoma going to schedule about six seven eight games a year was reasonably have no chance whatsoever to beat them into the only purpose of him going out there is to add up the rushing statistics. So yeah, you can you can rush for 678 yards or more, correct? I think a few years 183 got something like if you're real lucky 5 yards account that's not enough to make the The big difference what? What about the chicken game now? And how do you analyze the Kickin games impact in the profile? I need to get you not to go out for a beer. When do the Kings about the sequential? It's an absolute fluke. Who runs it back for a TD Kansas City 5 times last year, but they're not going to do it five times this year other teams will address it and then change their your system around a true is because all the teams in the NFL have are very very proficient at kicking and that's the worst except maybe like a team like Cincinnati last year. They had a terrible luck taking David got 29 yards 43 or 44 is at the level of proficiency of Kicking and punting in the NFL is generally going to be pretty much even and Sonia is a teen misses because loses a couple of games because of an extra point field goal kicker that tends to be an aberration pretends to be a fluke because most teams do skills like that. Very very well. 2276 thousand as a phone number you listening this portfolio here on ksjn 1330 MJG Preston Allen bear Our Guest talking about the pro football college football football by the numbers to sirius Man's Guide to the NFL go to Minneapolis next Steven. Questions are, the first one was about the other poly Football announcers, which I will admit is is truly appalling in in their their their ignorance and stupidity and cliches. But I remember watching the World Series last year and see the stats that were flashed on for someone would come up to hit which would give you such wonderful information is in the series that had five hits and since 17 at-bats without useful information. That's what their average was the whole season what they were against right-handers and left-handers and it's the wonderful comments during the World Series, which was baseball. I watch most intensely to say that maybe he's here. I'm not hearing them basically where you were My two cents in against your statistics about the the running passing controversy. I will admit if you don't have either of the two games you're you're in trouble, but I remember this is anecdotal read a statistical. I remember the San Diego Chargers with the past like a like a house on fire, and they never got anywhere and I remember the Washington Redskins had probably my opinion the best game ever consisting of two people Sunny shirt into Charlie Taylor, and he passed a great deal and it didn't help him up. Alan did not plant this phone call. We're not talking about total yards passing or total touchdowns were talking about passing efficiency. We're saying is if you have a good enough passing game to get to get your of yourself a bunch of yards per pass by total yards per pass without having the bowl intercepted and then you're wise enough to use your Russian game after preserve that lie and run the clock down you win in the NFL. I'm not saying you can go out and do with San Diego did pass pass pass pass from the opening the gun and keep passing when your head. In fact, I suspect San Diego's passing attack with all the interceptions and snacks that they suffered probably cost him as many games at 1 and I don't think there's any real coincidence there that the San Diego every year would wind up about a denature. They have like 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. And if you go by our methods you find out the San Diego really? Yeah, I know what your point with Sonny Jurgensen and the in Washington but keep in mind that there there's two halves to that that story one half is your Effectiveness passing on offense. The other half is your stopping the pass on defense and if you can't keep the other team from passing you better be able to work on your in your own vacuum, Washington a terrible pass defense no pass rush and they were actually turned every team that they faced into another Sonny Jurgensen and which is High Praise indeed or order one column in San Diego. And if you didn't tell the do you tell me which was which you couldn't tell exactly the same San Diego was my going out there till everybody working for 30 pass in the first quarter sure. They had a bad defense, but they weren't helping their defense. Any what they were doing is really turning their opponents into models of the San Diego Chargers normally would not pass against him like the Rams would figure either go out there and start showing in the first quarter. We get blown away so teams that normally wouldn't think I could passing game suddenly wound up with us because they figured well, we better go out there and try something against then we would normally dry offense and defense What is an argument Bill James debunked Aetna that baseball is to 75% pitching. He didn't last year's abstract at the Winking baseball as often as a good hitting teams. That's not true in football and football defense dominate. The Bears are approved his last few seasons and really the last defense wins in the NFL defense dominate you can win on a great defense more than you can win with they are great offense or defense and set up OK Allen. Berra is with us author of football by the numbers and we have four minutes before 1 time for a couple more questions from you. The listener and fan will go to Burnsville next Lil Jon. I have two questions are there enough games played in the Pro Football to achieve a statistical significance? In other words? Can you really tell if a six and a team is better than an eighth and sixteenth? My second question is in the mid-seventies. I think the Vikings blocked 13 kicks during a season. What's the probability of a team doing that if they haven't done something special to learn that I don't know of how you would figure something special friend that I do know the one who got cancer like buddy Ryan suddenly figures going to try swarm kind of Defense. It takes a couple of seasons for the other teams to adjust the temperature to keep you from doing that. They all did that happen year after year after year are not very good at home run hitters that the home runs for 5 Street season or something isn't perfect Pointe Stadium like that the Homeward Bound look in Minnesota when you know that You're in you're out you doesn't happen that way football cuz other teams adjust and they start doing doing different things as far as that 6 + 8 + 8 + 16 is a surprising. How often do you know? You can't really split hairs on that. You can't really figure I mean when a team has to play 16 or 14 games are in the pattern there, even if it's so unconsciously the game plan around doing the best. I can within that framework It Go James said that if the baseball teams only had two play 16 games after a few years everyone will everybody adjusted it that you still think the best teams rising to the top and he wouldn't She Bangs want some things like that. So yeah, it is within a certain framework easy. Like we think last year that the San Diego Chargers at the end of the year was there for 12 record. We're really as good as good or better than the New York Jets with their 10-6 record. If you took into account the other toughness of the schedule, the games were played on Road and how close some of those games were we think the guy in our computer Mad Max tells us that the San Diego could have played through the jet seats at the end of your despite the difference in won-lost record. I just for the fun of it now and when you gaze however faintly in your crystal ball in and come up with the Super Bowl matchup for us for next year, you won't you're going to go wrong with other teams and that that we will do and I'll tell you this if the Vikings improve their defense. To let's say just need to improve their defense by 25% It could make the difference of two extra wins. And that would be about 11 5:00 record. We expect the Vikings be one of the real surprise teams that I don't know if it's really surprising that says they were nine and seven last year but keep in mind that play schedule this year and prove and still finish 9-7 want to get the beers Orleans Saints in the NFC or the other big team. If it's the Saints had we should be for the Vikings offense. You can look for a 12-4 season from the Saints and they would obviously Seattle is the big guy AFC team. There is a lot of points their offense is a lot like the video of the Vikings and they they have a problem with age on other other defensive team that could be there real problem. But other than that, I I certainly expect Seattle to Farmer Denver and when you see this year we have to go I appreciate your time and your insights and I enjoyed the book Thank you very much. Author of football by the Numbers the series fans guide the NFL available in paperback. What do they call the soft stuff? I like it. And I'm not a football fan couldn't get there. But I've got a call earlier if you want to bring them in JG my thanks to Dave sleep over there and I think the suit winking over there. We both played vital roles in this program on JG press and thanks for listening will be back next week and Mark Ice Dad. I'll be back in just smear minutes seconds for the week in review coming up next year on ksjn. This is KS. Jan Minneapolis-Saint Paul time is 1