Sportfolio: Bill James discusses 1986 baseball season

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Bill James, baseball writer, discusses all things baseball, including the 1986 season. James also answers listener questions.

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(00:00:00) Well, one other news item that came out yesterday. The NCAA has decided the final four will be playing the national NCAA basketball men's title pitted out Heist and I'm working on it. I did just in the Metrodome in 1992 a fact which seems J.G. Preston to have left you reasonably unimpressed. It's building markets building. I have to I have to build up to these big events slowly. It's glad they gave me six years only a half decade away. I mean listen six years of six years, right? I say what were you doing six years ago? Did you have any idea that you'd be on the same Airwaves with me six years ago know it if I have to be honest with you J.G. It had never entered my mind until whenever it was the boss suggested this thing that's in Mark the best the the only problem with this final for business. Yeah is that it's basketball and not baseball. Well now come on Mark. It's know it's that time of year, but the twins are faltering. We got to find something else here to get interested in. We believe it sometimes sometimes ball clubs that are faltering can be even more interesting than the ones that are good. I can't believe I'm saying. Well, you've got an hour to prove it. Okay, you're wrong. Take it away. J.G. Thank-you bar guys. Dad J.G. Preston here with sport folio. Now for the next hour here on ksjn 1330 our chance to sit around and bat the breeze about sports for a while. My guest today with all due apologies to Howard Synchro. The Minneapolis Star Tribune is my favorite baseball writer. He's calling us from Kansas today and his name is Bill James and a lot of you know him from his best-selling books The Bill James baseball abstract over this past winter the hardcover book The Bill James historical baseball abstract and Bill. I want to thank you for taking the time to come on and Enlighten us a little bit today. (00:01:42) That sounds like a heavy responsibility. But thank you (00:01:46) for having me on Bill. James will be able to take your phone calls with questions. They too if you'd like to get the real insight on what's going on in the 1986 baseball season, give us a call at 2:00 to 7:00 6,000 here on sport folio be calling from Western Wisconsin or anywhere outside the Twin Cities seven-county metro area. You can call us collect our area code if you needed a 6-1 to number is 2276 thousand if you'd like to ask a question of Bill James this afternoon on sport folio bill before we get to the baseball you were on our program back when we were on Sunday nights back in January and since then there's been a couple of big changes I guess one is that the 1986 Bill James baseball abstract is with us. The other one is that your father congratulations from one father to another (00:02:27) thank you very much. My baby is 15 weeks old this morning and she's right here sitting on my lap. But as I conduct this interview, no (00:02:34) kidding. I'm I like a man who keeps track of his daughters agent week still at this at this stage of the yeah, it's good. It made much of an impact on how you conduct your personal professional lives. All right. He asked me to laugh in his voice. (00:02:47) It's not free to drop. To do things. I've only seen five baseball games a lot of the first half season. No kidding. Not too many. (00:02:55) So you're otherwise adjusting and enjoying and all that (00:02:58) other stuff? Yeah, just tremendous (00:03:00) mobile is you probably expected. The phone lines are lighting up. We've got a lot of people who have things they want to know from you today and we'll get to them in just a second after I start this discussion with the big question bill. You got any ideas from down there in Kansas. What's wrong with our twins (00:03:13) now, I really don't want I mean they played a role here about two weeks ago and pretty pretty much obliterated them. So they look good to me. Then the they've been hitting home runs at historic rate pitching hasn't been there. No, I don't have any original insights into the (00:03:29) I do want to ask you a question. Maybe you can give us some perspective on Bert Blyleven. It's not often. I guess at least that comes right popping into my head that you see you a guy who's you know, historically been as consistent as Blyleven has over as long a period of time as he has all of a sudden just go to hell in a handbasket like (00:03:45) that. Well, my life has been tremendously creative in finding ways to have 500 Seasons. He has had some very very good seasons is 1970 season with with Clevelander. A few years ago and and others but he's had a large number of 16 and 15 and 17 and 17 type season. If you look at this one loss record is an awfully good chance to be another 17 and 17 season. It's just that he's 17 and 17 season with 55 home runs allowed Erza. Yeah, Major League record. I think it's 48 and he's well on target toward obliterating the violence has always been a fine picture. He's always been able to win at least half the time and I reckon he still will (00:04:22) well, I've got too many callers waiting to talk to Bill James here on sport folio for me to hog up the conversation. So we'll open up. The phones are number is 2276 thousand if you get a busy signal keep trying we got a lot of people here to talk to Bill James here on ksjn on sport folio. This afternoon first caller will be from Wayzata. Go ahead Eric. (00:04:38) How you doing? Good. I just want to say that I read your book at least one of the historical or the yearly one about every day. I don't know what I do during baseball season without it. I was gonna ask you about a couple of comments you made on two players one was Kirby Puckett. We said wasn't a great offensive player. I was If you had changed your mind with his new history people always ask you if you've changed your mind about that. I've changed my mind is that he's changed his production. The curvy wasn't a great offensive player last year. He certainly has been a great offensive player the first half of this season. I mean if he hits I don't know what his average is at the moment 320 or something. He's the 337 this morning 37 the I didn't get a couple days ahead and mentally going down the if he had 337 with 30 home runs on the season while that's a heck of a ballplayer and also on shortstop for Montreal Hubie Brooks have been pretty hard on. I was wondering if you had had any other opinions on him now after yeah, well, he's had a tremendous first have to in fact Hubie has been the most valuable player in the National League over the first half of the season the he has Not only had a lot of hits and what a powerful hits but some some big hits that have kept Montreal in the race. But again, I think he's I believe he's had two monster Hits against the Mets. And so yeah, give me as had a tremendous percent. (00:05:59) I don't know me. I don't know if this is sort of my imagination taking over here here bill, but it just you've come up with guys like Puck and Brooks and it seems like there's been an awful lot of guys both up and down who have really significantly changed their level of play this year at do you notice anything similar? (00:06:12) It does seem to me that there have been more than they usually have I mean in any season there are some last year you can look at so Bradley Seattle who had it was completely unexpected and the year before that at Ken Phelps of Seattle 41 the but I think that you're right there there have been more than normal this year. (00:06:36) That's nothing that you would point to any particular factors surrounding the game of baseball is any kind of contribution, which is just kind of luck of the draw type of (00:06:44) that. That's why I It is I just luck of the draw (00:06:46) next caller for Bill James here on sport folio is in Richfield. Hi Brian, you're on you are now anyway, Brian. Go ahead. (00:06:53) Okay, I'm reading the hidden game of baseball by Pete Palmer and he claims that a batting order doesn't affect of teams wins or losses by that much. Maybe two wins per season. Do you agree with that? And also what kind of batting order would you have for the Minnesota Twins against a right-handed (00:07:14) pitcher? Let's get specific. I like (00:07:16) it. That is pretty specific the know. I really don't agree with it. The most suspicious finding in any type of research is the finding of no effect. If you study the they have an impact on being you find I can't isolate any effect here. That means that either there's no effect or that you studied in situated you fail to isolate it about 90% of the time. It's the latter any present time. Is that you Individual that you failed isolated and that's what I think happened to the study that that Pete refers to is done by dick Kramer. St. Louis actually lives in Indiana Works in St.Louis the who's also a good friend of mine and we've argued about this he he feels that the potential effects from changing better batting order just aren't that large and I feel that they've got to be some that he missed so but it is interesting that that his I'll tell you how that study was that it is done by by simulating a large number of games that is having a computer play at table games using the best batting order you could find in the worst batting order you could find and he found that for an ordinary team. It makes almost no difference. How you how you order the players but I really don't agree with it. (00:08:33) Do you find that the simulation technique maybe isn't a good Proving Ground for something like that bill or something else (00:08:38) lurking in your mind for cash. But Proving Ground, I mean, it should be a good as good a way of study that issue as you could find. I don't know how you could do better. The but it just there may be well, it's a technical thing to get into over the radio but his study focused on isolating a couple of specific batting order effects. What I was saying is there may be other specific batting order effects, which should also be studied (00:09:07) that just weren't included in the study from the beginning right (00:09:10) the that was he says study also treated speed as if it were no factor, which obviously is not is not right. Well speed we don't feel the speed is as important as many people do it obviously is sometimes the question about the twins batting order. It's hard for me to to discuss it's hard for me to go on Minnesota radio discuss the Minnesota. I don't you try to avoid doing that. But the only thing I've been thinking about there is that it's hard to know what to do with Kirby. I mean if Kirby is has developed into a power hitter then obviously you don't want him leading off. Although the whole team has four powers of why not the If he if his is not developed into a power hitter than maybe you want to keep him in that spot. The is collar still there. Yes, maybe did you have an idea about what should be done with the twins batting order against Lieutenant? Well, I would consider moving pocket to number three Ella. I think Bernanke is not quite a cleanup hitter yet. Just not enough contact with the ball. And the then would you have her back think we never write even if it is against the left-hander. He's right handle gets right down to you. Like to that. Yeah, (00:10:30) I guess the problem that Ray Miller keeps coming back to with he doesn't feel comfortable with anybody else batting leadoff because as you surely will know bill, there's hardly anybody in this team that really gets on base outside of her back with any regularity at (00:10:42) all. That's right. I mean Kirby isn't it? Ideal leadoff man? He also is on base percentage is not exceptional the doesn't walk along and but then there's really nobody on the team that does (00:10:53) know and then you know is his number-two position this year. It's been right out of the Sparky Anderson School of wine up selection. It's been Mickey Hatcher and a terrible year. It's been Randy Bush. It's been all kinds of people who you know. Ideally you wouldn't have his number two hitters, but that's where they run into a lot of troubles at the at the beginning of all games. They just can't get anything generated to the top of the order unless it goes out of the park (00:11:11) as anything. I will study the twins run for go run scored by Innings and see if I turn up anything anything related to them (00:11:19) Bill James with us on sport folio here on ksjn 1330. And as long as we're on the topic of runs in the twins, I can tell you one thing bill. I try to spend some time. I was really in By one of the studies you had in the 86 abstract about run distribution number of runs per game for teams over the course of the season, right and just lately the twins are run through an even more pronounced streak than usual whether it's really feast or famine in the last three weeks. They've had two games in which they've scored either four or five or six runs. Otherwise, it's been seven or more or three or less and that's that that's a strike me as being awfully quirky to quirky maybe to be controlled by chance. (00:11:55) It could be the it does sound quirky and certainly it's an efficient. I mean, it takes an awful. If you're going to go around in that pattern you have to score an awful lot of runs to (00:12:03) win. The unfortunate thing for the twins is even when they when they don't it's worked both ways. They have well, I haven't done the low end of the scale quite so much but I know that when they score a lot of runs, it's no guarantee of success this year. They've already lost I think in double figures in games in which they scored six or more runs. Wow, it's been a weird year up here bill. You ought to take a look at some (00:12:22) time. Yeah, but it has I it is hard to understand why they're spending home runs and hit a pinch (00:12:27) Bill James author of The Bill James baseball. Act and the Bill James historical baseball abstract is with us this afternoon on sport folio. My name is J.G. Preston here on ksjn. If you have a question about baseball or whatever for Bill James give us a call at 2:00 to 7:00 6,000. We have a caller waiting right now in Minneapolis. Go ahead (00:12:43) Jeff. Hi. I've got that three questions for Bill as curious what sort of managerial innovations that he's noticed this year. And I was also curious how he thinks of managers should use the kind of information that he and he and other people who are studying the game from a statistical bent are how a manager should should use that kind of data and also I was curious what he thinks about the job that the Dick Williams is doing up at Seattle at a big waves a tremendous job of in Seattle. This has like a call for one person who has a baby on (00:13:16) his laptop as we say was that your kid or Jeff's Bill. All right, (00:13:19) okay, but she loves baseball to just like fills the I said big ways is that in Seattle some of the things which which needed to be Done some time ago. And Al cowen's has not been reliably productive. That is he has had a good year or two, but it is not been reliably productive for a long time and Seattle just kept running him out there and say well maybe you'll get hot and you know, I don't know maybe they were looking for leadership qualities is something they claim said we got to get rid of it. You got to get rid of these old guys and give the young talented players a chance to play. He's he's got the team turned around they played almost 500 ball since he took over there and I'm confident that he'll have them in contention next year. I didn't have don't have in mind any specific managerial Innovations of the 1986 season. Did you have something in (00:14:10) mind Jeff's of Jeff's left his bill? So you're on your own now (00:14:13) the well there may be something but I can't I can't call it up off the top of my head. There's some managers, you know, I believe that you can be a good manager from a lot of different standpoint. So there's some managers who do use statistical information like or Weaver and Davey Johnson and some use it very well. I certainly don't believe that that's the only way that one can be a successful manager. I think that a manager who has a real good feel for personalities for the psychology of his players quite possibly could be good could could succeed without having much understanding of what of the what you might call a mathematical forces of the game. The baseball is enormously complex and it can be understood from many different. It can be looked at for many different Vantage points. And I think it's a mistake to think that one of those Vantage points has to dominate. I think that any type of person looking at the game from any particular Vantage Point can come too. As good in understanding is as the next person if that makes any (00:15:27) sense. Yeah, speaking of some of these intangible off field type of things Bill how much of the credit for the Red Sox success this year. Do you suspect may be due to some of the off-field value that a Don Baylor may (00:15:39) have Not very much. The I mean if you look at Baylor's career, he has not played with a lot of successful teams. He came up with Baltimore times Baltimore was successful. He was traded Oakland 76 Oakland had their poorest year in a long time. He went to California and 77 California had a dreadful year and in the I think four years or five years. He was in California. They only had one good year. He went to New York at the time that New York was dominating that League. They never won in the time that he was there. I think it's just one of those Sports writers random attribution things. The I think that a lot of it has to do with with Roger Clemens having the kind of year that he's having a lot of it has to do with the development of the Improvement of the bullpen. A lot of it has to do with Jim Rice having his best year in several years, but I don't think very much of it has to do with the fact that Don Baylor's in the clubhouse (00:16:37) baseball writer Bill James is with us this afternoon on sport folio here on ksjn 1330. He'll answer your baseball questions if you'll call us at two to seven six thousand. Maybe toss off a parenting tip or two. I don't know if you feel like you're up to that yet or not, but (00:16:51) that's right. I can take a parenting tips. (00:16:53) No, I wanted you to give somebody. Okay? Okay, then baseball only fans 62276 thousand our number and we have a caller waiting in Minneapolis. Go ahead Jim. (00:17:03) Thank you very much. Say Bill. I've been a fan of yours for a number of years of neglecting the abstracts, but I'd like you to do something for me this time play the role of general manager of Minnesota Twins. Obviously, that's what we're interested in up here. It's strange team strange things have happened this year, but there's something wrong you are in a general managers chair. What would you to maybe fire the general manager, but beyond that And it changes the well, I'll tell you visible. I wouldn't do what I wouldn't do is go out and trade a young hitter for a pitcher. The reason I wouldn't do that is pictures are not as reliable. They're not as predictable as our as our regular everyday players. I mean Tom radensky may not be a clean up here that you hoped it would be but Bernanke you could pretty much count on to do what he's capable of doing that is it 25 to 35 home runs and driving a lot of runs every year for the next 10 years. Maybe I'll have an off year sometime in there, but he's likely to do that but there isn't any picture. There's any picture that you can count on to have eight or nine good years in the next ten years because pitchers just aren't that stable what I think the twins need the but at the same time. Obviously the twins do need to concentrate on improving the pitching staff. The I have a feeling that the pictures were work too hard two years ago and and also last year Smithson through a lot of innings last couple of years butcher course, he's gone now the I think that there's a need to concentrate on trying to identify some young pitchers who have a chance maybe bring six or eight young pitchers in the into Camp who maybe have failed somewhere else, but have a chance to turn it around have a chance to be what Ken schrom was to the twins three years ago or what he has to say Cleveland this year and out of that group maybe to would would make it and that would be enough to stabilize the pitching staff and projected twins into (00:18:57) contention. You know, it's funny that you bring up that solution bill because that really is exactly what Ray Miller tried to do this year with almost the exact same justification and it just so happened with the crop of people he brought in and the way they pitched this year. It didn't pan out it did work, but I think he very much had that strategy in (00:19:11) mind. I'm not surprised at that. Yeah, that's what is no guarantee that it works. (00:19:17) And I know we're just from talking to Ray about this this morning. As a matter of fact, he's he's very envious of the situation. They have down in Texas where Bobby Valentine's been able to retool a pitching staff completely and just take some young kids to throw hard and give them a chance to pitch in the major leagues and by and large they've been successful for him just it's just unfortunate the right. Now the twins don't accept in the lowest reaches of their system have the kind of arm strength to let a guy at the major league level do that. (00:19:40) Well, you know, The man asked me to speculate on what I do as a general management, so they would be easy for me to as general managers say that I would find some young Dave Schmidt and trade him for a young Edwin Korea, which is what the Tom grieve did. He really snookered can Harrelson bad on that deal. He got Korea and Fletcher 44 day Schmidt and and Wayne Tolleson, which is you know, it's a really imbalanced rate. Korea is a young pitching Prospect with the chance to be outstanding. He didn't give up anybody who has a chance to be outstanding. Obviously, if you can make a trade like that if you can identify a young pitcher that somebody else has who has a chance to be really good. But who for some reason they're ready to give up then that's great. But I you know, I couldn't speculating say that if I was a general manager, I'd be able to snuck her can Harrelson (00:20:28) before we go back to the phones you have any evaluation at this Midway point on the Hawks performance as a manager. I predicted before the year. He'd fall flat on his Beacon so far. He hasn't let me down (00:20:40) as general manager. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, he's been Esther I mean he just he hadn't done anything that worked at their well hire you for goes ever goes. Yeah, you gotta like the hiring of growth you don't you (00:20:50) well, maybe (00:20:53) but he'd done a good job there for a while, but for girls he was a guy who had worked in the my legs developed his managerial skills and you gotta like that with but that was first thing he's done. It made any sense to me. They started in by by moving his is fences further away from home plate, but doesn't make any sense anyway, because you had a slow Outfield in the power hitting offense, right the why are you going to move move further make the Outfield very large. It doesn't make any sense then to make the situation worse the boob Carlton Fisk left field the 37 38 year old catcher experimenting and playing in left field which left field area which is now the largest left field areas in the link Fisk didn't like playing Left Field and there wasn't any basis for putting him in left field and the health and thoughts. Joel Skinner was going to be a young star that was never any really good evidence for that. If you look at Skinner's minor league batting record, there was never any basis to the belief that he was going to hit major league pitching the he had another young catcher there by the name of Scott Bradley who probably will hit major league pitching and he virtually gave him to Seattle and they'll Harrelson has been a watch. He hasn't done anything (00:22:06) right getting we think we've got a bad up here. That's the city Chicago. I think instead of far worse for baseball this year. (00:22:11) It's been a well, you know, they have two teams are there's a potential for it to be twice as good in a good year or twice as bad in the (00:22:18) battle Yeah, and they're on the down cycle right now. Yeah 12:26 here on ksjn 1330. I'm J.G. Preston and you're listening to portfolio and our guest today Bill James author of The Bill James baseball abstract series and the Bill James historical baseball abstract taking your questions for Bill at 2276 thousand have another gym on the line from the same old Minneapolis. Go ahead Jim. (00:22:38) Thanks. I was wondering if mr. James had any comments on the Feherty in the two divisions in the American League seems like forever. We've been seeing all but one or two teams in the American League East having better records than all but one team in the American League West and seems to just be perpetuating itself. I was wondering what he attributed it to. Yeah, it is perpetuating itself. The some of it is is it systematically self-perpetuating that is the teams in the American League West think that if they can get 282 wins or 85 wins, they could be in contention. So they tend to gear themselves toward winning 85 games. So whereas the teams in the in the west, I mean a team in the west that has the ability to win 85 games knows that they can't contend doing that. So they think well, we've got to go out and do something we got to go out and acquire a player you got to make a move there is more pressure on them to improve themselves and they do things to improve themselves. the AL West Test although the the disparity seems to be massive. It isn't really as large as as some people might think that is if you took one really good organization from the AL East and traded them to the West for really bad organization that is in the past. Maybe you trade it. You move the Baltimore Orioles to the west and Seattle to the east it would be about even it's just it's just a matter of their being about 045 good organizations in the AL East and one or two in the west the West looks like they have all the young Talent right now, but you know, I've been saying that for two or three years and it hasn't manifested itself. So I gotta I gotta wonder what's happened (00:24:26) Bill James Our Guest this afternoon on sport folio taking your questions at to 276 thousand. If you're outside the Twin Cities metro you can call us collect in our area code if you needed a 6-1 to Bill I want to spend a little time chatting about the pennant races. I went back this morning to reread your comment on the Red Sox. And this year's a Tracked and in retrospect boy. You sure. Look I'm Mission because I thought you were you were right on the mark in a lot of ways and how the Red Sox could wind up having as good a years they have. (00:24:51) Yeah, the best ice are good team last year. They've had about 500 ball and they were a better team than that. There was no reason for that team to be be playing 500 ball last year. They just didn't didn't get a few breaks with return of Roger Clemens. They're they're much better than 500 team. (00:25:07) Well, what's funny I guess to me is looking at their numbers. I it seems like offensively they are doing much more poorly than one would expect while the pitching staff the the ERS and stuff like that staff wide have been excellent All Season. (00:25:20) Yeah, that's true on the other hand. It is heading toward normalcy in the last week. It seems to me that they played a number of those. Well, they got shut out last night. But in the last week, it seemed to me they played a number of those those 927 type games that you expect the Red Sox to play. (00:25:34) Meanwhile the National League West this year. I don't know if that necessarily anybody had any kind of consensus favor going into the year, but certainly Houston and San Francisco and weren't the right at the top. Many people's list is Roger Craig. Really you think that good a manager or something else going on in San Francisco (00:25:48) bill? I think you gotta get ready to create a lot of credit. I really do the you know, Craig was when he managed San Diego in the mid-70s. He took over a team that had done absolutely nothing for Don Zimmer and John McNamara and he had them when they 84 85 games when you he had to say Young Award winners there. I think in managing a managing for two and a half years the that was that was give ordinary and and Randy Jones. You got to give him a lot of credit the when he went to when he was a Detroit and in 84 Detroit was it was the pitching coach Detroit's pitchers had a magnificent year and they won the world's Championship. Then he left their pitchers have not been the same since I think you've got to look at Roger Craig has the main the main force behind the turnaround in that team. (00:26:33) How about the Astros? They're a team that you've been pointing out for a couple years now has been a lot stronger offensively than a lot of casual Baseball fans give them credit for and if they got some staying power now that they've gotten off to this kind of (00:26:42) art That's that race whinnies. I mean, it looks worse than the AL West you can at least imagine the Angels winning 88 or 90 games and being a legitimate sort of champion in the AL West. There's nobody in that race who really looks good at all including the Astros. The Astros have used their pictures too hard the first half of the season the guy knepper and Scott have pitched a lot of innings Dave Smith and kerfield have been worked very hard. I kind of think. Well, I'm more than kind of thing. I'm almost sure that in the middle of August that's going to come back and bite them that's not going to say that they're not going to win. That's not say they're not going to win because somebody's got to win that division like it or not. Yeah, I shouldn't think it's going to be San Francisco the so might well be Houston (00:27:31) what we go back to the phone's Bill a question about the NL East to do you think it's time to start cranking up those publicity machines and put those 86 Mets in that Pantheon of all-time great teams, or is it a little premature (00:27:41) yet? Yeah, obviously, you know, The unique feature of the 80s to this point has been the difficulty of the teams have had repeating. We have not had a great team in the 80s. Where as in the 70s. There were a number of great teams the trying to pick the four best teams of the 1970s is unusually difficult because you have an unusual number of candidates. It really has not been a great team in the 80s a team has been able to repeat your after year will be interesting to see whether the Mets are are in that class. But I'm sure not gonna put them in the class of the Immortals on basis one year (00:28:14) baseball writer Bill James with us this afternoon on sport folio. You're listening to ksjn 1330 Minneapolis st. Paul taking your calls with questions for Bill at 2276 thousand call are waiting in Minneapolis. Go ahead Tom. (00:28:26) Hi there bill. I have all of your books from about 82 on and find your comments on Dick Williams to be interesting especially concerning how his first move really is to pull a second baseman and find another one and sure enough. The first thing he doesn't Seattle is move tartabull who I Look just wonderful at least offensive ly you put some on the right field. I was wondering what you thought of that and the yeah, that's consistent with a Williams pattern at our table was having defensive problems as second baseman. The people who are in Seattle said that he looked very awkward as a second basement. I think Williams was first of all Williams would not like an awkward second baseman and and second he would be afraid that it would affect his is offensive production over a period of time. So, yeah, it's quite consistent for him to say let's get that guy out there and put a glove man at second (00:29:17) base any truth to the rumor that Rodney's got swear about you're trying to be located to bring him back in (00:29:21) Seattle. Yeah. I'm sure (00:29:23) Tom did you have another question for (00:29:24) you gotta search in looking for running? Yeah. I was wondering if you were a little more lenient than Pat Corrales. Now that looks like Cleveland's putting it together. I know that you haven't been one of his biggest boosters, but the tribe this boy, I like a lot of their players like all your and Franco and Butler and some of those guys. Franklin brother I didn't have a good years. The guys are almost Joe Carter is having a tremendous season a mill Halls slugging percentages up there in the I think it's over 500 the yeah, they the twins have a great number of exciting young players Indians. You meant right bill I meant in India, so this is the twins. No, I'm not a lot more competitive Crowley's and every was the I don't know what the idea is between behind the Ken schrom Phil Niekro Type move. I mean negro maybe has some value in that he's he's teaching candiotti and candiotti. Maybe we'll be around for but otherwise the the twin the Indians pitchers are a bunch of guys who are going to are going to be there in two years so that it looks like we're going to have the same problem with the pitching staff in two years that they had last year. I really don't don't see the point in a lot of what they're (00:30:37) doing. Especially this week after schrom was for some reason put on the All-Star team by dick Howser. There's been a lot of people crying and screaming hear about how we gave up on him. But I tell you Bill I don't remember anybody back in January when that trade was made. I don't remember anybody seeing Jesus future All-Star Ken from were giving them away. What's wrong with (00:30:52) us? Yeah, that's (00:30:54) right. Everything was more or less satisfied that he was either through or close to it. And really the even as his deadline isn't all that good in Cleveland. They just score a lot of (00:31:02) runs. Yeah and excited that having the twins gave him away for nothing. But what did they pay to get him after all they're doin the group in trauma two? You've been released by the drought organization. Yeah signed him for nothing and he got one good year out of (00:31:15) yeah Bill James with us this afternoon on sport Foley 02276 thousand our phone number and we have a caller in Minneapolis. Go ahead Jim. (00:31:23) Yes, good afternoon. I enjoy your program. I have a question about catchers and how important they are to the success or failure of a pitching staff. We've got three and they seem to alternate and wonder if James is done any studies on that not only hang up and listen, but one thing we do is to figure catchers earned run averages that is what they earned run average this team when this man is catching or that man. We have found very surprising the consistent patterns in that respect. For example, the not even looking at the Mets this year. I know that they're earned run average when Gary Carter is catching is probably a half a run or run lower than it is when whoever their backup catcher is is catching I don't even miss backup catcher. Chris is messed up. (00:32:09) Do they have one anyways not run Hodges. I know that much (00:32:12) the area. Are you sure? No, they're very consistent patterns that when any teams number one catcher is not there there to staff earned run average tends to go way up. There are exceptions to this like Oakland last year my Keith for the last two years there earned run average with Mickey tettleton catching was much lower than it was with Mike. He's catching. This is one of the reasons that open decided to dump his ass and go with title and no movement turned out to be a disaster. Well, I don't know if it's a disaster. He does nothing for Seattle 24602. Anyway, tettleton was hurt and they are out were left without a strong catcher. I think that there's a very considerable impact their which should be looked at. I certainly think that Jim Sundberg is presence in Kansas City had something to do with Kansas City's pitchers having such a magnificent your last year. I think that probably any team should have a smart veteran catcher on the roster and someone who at least could work with one or two young kids and help to stabilize them. How much of the problem that has been in Minnesota. I something that I really couldn't speculate on I would think that Bert Blyleven would know what he would should be throwing and that I wouldn't think that he would need a Jim Sundberg to the guide him through the through the motions maybe in some other cases that has been the problem. (00:33:38) What do you either suspect or know to be the biggest factors in which a catcher can contribute defensively bills. Is it pitch calling? Is that the way you set up? Is it just the atmosphere you create for the Your to work in do you have any any ideas there? (00:33:51) Well, I think that the pitch calling is probably only important in the case of a very young pitcher who doesn't have the self-confidence to throw what he he had to drop names, but I asked Joe garagiola that question one time. He said it doesn't make any difference because if you know, I remember times that I'd call for a curveball and when I was with st. Louis and had Murray had hairy bikini and Murray Dixon and the eyes and they'd maybe I was heading the count 1 and 2 and they'd know that this curveball was supposed to go outside and try to make the picture reach for it. I was traded to Pittsburgh the worst pitching staff in the league. I'd call the same curve ball and they hang the thing in the batter's eye the it was the same pitch. It just didn't the same situation is just a picture didn't know what he was doing. I do think however that in case of a young boy The young player a young pitcher that can make a lot of different there are other things that can make a lot more different the where you set the target probably can make a lot of difference the recognizing a flaw in the pictures delivery at an early moment. Probably could make a lot of difference. It can keep something from get something corrected before it before it gets to be a problem recognizing when the pitcher is tired probably can make a lot of difference particularly because it's something that a lot of managers can't do it all the obviously holding base runners can make quite a bit of difference. I don't know. I just think that there's Yeah, the catcher is unique. He's got the game in front of him. He's he's in a position to see a lot of things that nobody else is in a position to see I think it's very helpful to have somebody out there who will see those things (00:35:36) Neal James Our Guest this afternoon on sport folio here on Minnesota Public Radio. Ksjn. I'm J.G. Preston. If you have a question for Bill about baseball this afternoon, you can give us a call at 2:00 to 7:00. 6,000 Bill. We touched on the general subject to Bert Blyleven a little earlier in the hour and let me just pose this question to you with the guy like Blyleven or anybody else who's achieved a certain level of success over a long period of time. What are the factors one of the identifying characteristics of a guy like that when he's through I mean, how can you tell when it's just a three-month slump or how can you tell when it's the beginning of the end or maybe even the end itself? (00:36:08) Well, you probably think that strange answer but the strikeout will categories and it is is very very useful in this respect. If a man is if he's if he's striking out, you know, two batters per nine innings. There's almost no chance that he's going to come back. The I think you would have a hard time finding any pitcher who was who strikeout total reach that a very low level and who was then able to snap back and and be effective later. There's a sure as you say that there's bound to be an exception. Probably Tommy John but you know what? I mean, the I think the Blyleven still gots got the Press got a pretty good KW race ya to walk ratio. I (00:36:52) can't laugh at I can tell you that he's given I looked this morning was 97 or 30 ones. We still better in three two one strikeout to walk. So (00:36:59) it's definitely not that it's just a matter of an occasional pitch getting away from him making (00:37:03) a 30 of them built 30 of them 30 (00:37:07) occasional kitchen, (00:37:10) but but as far as you're concerned just on that basis anyway, there's still reason this to hope that the guys got some more life (00:37:15) to him I more than hope it's I'm virtually certain that he's got more lap to (00:37:20) seems like so far this afternoon every gym who lives in Minneapolis has called this program. And here's another one go ahead Jim. (00:37:25) Well, hi Jim. Enjoy your books. I got a question about the methods you use you're getting so much data now with collecting every every games box score. Do you are you going to use computers? Do you use them? What's your mechanism for? I'm not very good with computers and most things I do are still on still buy paper the I hate to confess as I'm 19th century, but then unless that's why I am the the box scores are collected by John diwan at a party excruciating Chicago He computerized all the data and they can do a lot of types of analysis that I really can't do. I have a computer I use the perfect cow or the spreadsheet program name of us working out and I can do a little bit of A programming but mostly I still work on paper. Okay. Thanks. (00:38:19) I know that you've been involved in trying to gather accurate pitch by pitch play-by-play accounts of all major league games Bill to provide some data for analysis. What kind of directions is that going in right now as far as specific things being (00:38:31) researched? Well, it's having very very good year the as far as we have all the score sheets from last two years now specific things being research are too numerous to mention. There's there are people places places where the the effort is active such as Seattle and Toronto Montreal who are doing things like figuring the team's one loss record with every umpire how many how many runs being scored with each umpire biggie the record of the home plate of the home team with each umpire figuring what each player hits when he swings at the first pitch and when he does not swing at the first pitch try To study the impact of the foul territory by by on player's batting averages by counting. The number of Pop fouls figuring what players are hitting with runners in scoring position. Of course that's becoming common looking at inherited Runners who scored that's another thing that you're in quite a bit just the number of things that have been studied or just to humorous to (00:39:35) mention. You mentioned the some of the the pitch analysis and that's one of the things I've never I don't go to enough games to score enough games to really do anything serious about this, but I'm really I think there may be a lot more impact on count situations and and well a pitcher's ability to throw first pitch strikes to those related kind of things. I think there may be a lot more impact on those issues on both batter and pitcher than maybe a lot of people give credit for (00:40:00) yeah, there is it's one of the it's one of baseball's truisms, you know, you can't work Behind The Hitter but it really is true that generally speaking you 300 hitter when he's ahead in the count is a 350 hitter when he's behind in the counties of 250 hitter the there. There's a big big difference between what any hitter will hear when he's ahead in the count when he's behind (00:40:18) baseball writer Bill James speaking with us from his home in Kansas today and answering our questions about baseball as we get ready for our brief Hiatus from the season the All-Star break coming up early this season and the All-Star game Tuesday night in Houston, you're listening to ksjn 1330 in the number to call to talk to Bill James is 2276 thousand our next caller is from Brooklyn Park. Go ahead Ken (00:40:38) Alex. You're on the air more. (00:40:40) God bless you for saying that even for thinking it was I know you were talking to Bill. (00:40:45) I got to thank you for not being named Jim. (00:40:47) Go ahead Kim. (00:40:49) I'm thinking of changing my name, but then I got two questions one. I can't understand why Gagney doesn't steal more bases. He's awful fast and pocket to and then what's a good newspaper to follow Minor League Baseball other than Baseball America? Yeah Baseball America, is it there? Isn't there's nothing else that will really help you following minor league baseball. By gaining the still more bases guys, you'll have to ask Gagney the I never realized he was that fast. His stolen base percentage is have never been particularly good so I can't be the answer. (00:41:24) It's funny. He was known as a guy who's pretty quick defensively. It shows up more in the fact that he's one of those guys that they say, he's got a good first step. He's got good reflexes in a good Instinct for where the ball is going to be hit. Yeah, but you're eating he's never had outstanding stolen base totals in the minor leagues or anywhere and yet he thought to be pretty fast. (00:41:39) Yeah, you know it does he remind you physically buddy Bill some buddy bill is an excellent base runner and he's pretty fast but he's never been a base stealer. We watched pretty fast from five years ago, the and stolen base percentage has never been very good. The nonetheless. He is a good basement (00:41:55) you may or may not be surprised to learn that the guy who's leading the Twins and steals today is not Kirby Pucket, but the guy's been hitting sixth in the order most of the Year Gary guy Eddie. Is that right? Yeah, although both he and pocket have stolen base percentage is right around 50 percent. So nobody's been real proficient at it here Bill. James is with us on this portfolio this afternoon. The number to call is 6,000 let's go to st. Paul. Hi Henry (00:42:17) bill when you were here for the Winter hostilely Banquet you were to be an expectant fathers that happened that has happened. Yes. We have a young baby Rachel who was on my lap started other of the show, (00:42:31) but did Susan coming and Susan came and bailed you out. Yeah. Rachel is her name your daughter. (00:42:36) Her name is Rachel. She is 15 weeks old today and she's going through an exceptionally cute period if you'd like to (00:42:43) know well, I'm glad you're enjoying it. Anyway, (00:42:46) no a baseball has neurotic passion for compiling all kinds of (00:42:51) Statistics. Did you say neurotic or erotic passion neurotic? Just checking one (00:42:56) that does make an awful lot of sense to me is winning. RBI. What do you think of it? Well, when is this week is new there's a tendency to focus on what is wrong with it. And there's a lot wrong with game-winning RBI a lot of things which are called game-winning RBIs don't particularly win the game at the time the same is true of a lot of other traditional statistics, which we tend to accept more every game a picture is credited with a win often. He's credited with the wind when he pitches poorly often. He's credited with a loss when he pitches well and it isn't really his fault that they want her lost at all the game-winning RBI isn't we're in any worse than a lot of other. Statistics that we tend to accept and then you don't hear as much about the weaknesses. But at the same time it's not anything that I have any use for I mean, I never use it in my analysis of the game because I don't know specifically what it tells you. Tell him. I knock in a run in the second inning put his him in the head to to one came goes on 12:11 at ends the other team never catches up in the guy who drove in one run out of 23 in the second inning is credited with a winning. RBI does make an awful lot of sense? Yeah, but that's one relatively rare circumstance. I mean, it's so rare. I don't think what's that? Well, there aren't that many 2011 game the (00:44:17) I think the point you made before the bill is right though is that you don't hear people maybe you didn't years ago. You don't anymore hear him screaming about well, Ken drama this week got a win in a game in which he pitched five and two thirds Innings gave up six runs. Everybody thinks he belongs on the All-Star team. He's getting (00:44:30) pounded. Yeah the anytime that you drive in a run which puts your team ahead. It's an important run on the other hand. Yeah, I wonder if it might not be more useful to just count. The number of times you drive in a run that put your team ahead. Then it is to say that this was the run that won the game often. It's something that you really can't say. (00:44:52) I do like baseballs method better though than I don't think anything of hockey's methane hockey's method. The game-winning goal is the goal that literally makes the difference. Let's say that a team winds up winning a game six to three. Maybe they were head six one and the other team came back at the end. The hockey technique is to give the score of the fourth goal credit for the game-winning goal no matter what the circumstances and that that's just completely selling in my (00:45:14) book. Yeah, that is pretty silly (00:45:16) Bill James with his talking baseball this afternoon on sport folio. It's 11 minutes before one o'clock. I'm J.G. Preston in the number to call with questions for bill is 2276 thousand go to North Oaks next. Hi Pete. (00:45:27) I have a question as to whether Bill James happens to know to what extent the announcers and radio have all of the available statistics that he uses the The number of Statistics available to announcers is exploding at a rate that announces probably don't even appreciate the there is more information becoming available through for example, a sports wire the sports news network and the amount of that that that will become available to announcers will explode even further in the next few years my computer. Yes by the use of computers and also telecommunications equipment more sophisticated telecommunications equipment (00:46:13) and just just the data transmission is so unbelievable today, you know, you can get at night after all the games were over you can get complete stats on everybody from the American League all the league leaders. Everything is just it's really the speed is unbelievable. (00:46:24) Yeah, the that's right. So, you know, we've got it were beginning to reach the point at which it's important to ask. Is this something that's public really wants to know is this is is reaching the point at which it's a distraction from the game rather than the contribution (00:46:39) 22276 Thousand Years our phone number for those of you. Questions for Bill James this afternoon Bill. Like I suspect two or three others of our listeners today. I grew up the greatly enjoying playing table games and I still do get a lot of pleasure out of them. And I guess I'm curious as to whether or not you've ever been approached by anybody who's asked you to either design or maybe endorse a table game of some (00:46:59) sort. Yeah. I've been asked to endorse a number of them. I almost wound up doing so one time but for some reason it fell through the the I've always said that I wouldn't get involved in one of them unless it was the best game on the market and there's so many good games on the market that it is difficult to say which one is the best. I don't (00:47:22) know. I I once played a game from your neck of the woods. They're called Ballpark and I have found much going on from ballpark lie, they still in business. (00:47:28) Yes. They're still in business sort of ballpark is run by this right Lawrence where I used to live is a college town and ballpark is run by a group of college professors as a sort of Hobby and boy, I mean, I'm a bad businessman but these guys are incredible. They have a great game ballpark is really a tremendous game. It's comparable to a game called pursue the pennant which is also a great game the but you can't get it. I mean you write to them in your letters just disappear. You you you send them checks and saying send me these teams and the check will lie around somebody's house on cash for years, you know, so they're frustrated to do (00:48:07) with thank you for stating that all I had that experience. Five years ago. I thought they just sort of faded away. (00:48:12) So they still in business sort of but I just don't take it. Seriously. (00:48:16) Okay more callers were Bill James now here on ksjn Force portfolio we go to my home town of Woodbury. Hiya Willie. (00:48:22) Yeah bill. I was wondering if you've ever been offered a column in a in the sporting news or Baseball America or newspaper anything and if so, would you take it or what? Do you think feelings on it? The I've never been offered a column in the sporting news or Baseball America? I have had opportunities to write syndicated columns. It seems like it's something that's like, I don't know how many how many of the syndication groups are there. It seems like somebody calls me every (00:48:48) two months unbelievable. There are a ton of (00:48:49) them. Yeah saying we'd like to Syndicate your column the I've never Yeah, I had a newsletter. I hated doing the newsletter. I hated writing it because that deadline kept coming around. I think the same thing might happen. If I were to try to do a newspaper call not say that I'm not ever going to try to do it but I definitely want to clear the table and get some other things under control before I get into that. But yeah, I've had any number of opportunities to write a newspaper column. (00:49:17) You still owe us to newsletters. Don't you Bill? I've (00:49:21) written them. Yeah, one of them you should be getting a matter of days the other one I've written and I don't know when we'll be a (00:49:28) good I'll give you something to look forward to this week. I'm glad to hear that Bill James with us on this portfolio here on k s JN 2276 thousand our phone number. We have a caller in Edina. Go ahead Madeline. (00:49:37) We in Minnesota with the possible exception of the you know, the 60s and my question to you is if you were the new owner who is not a baseball man. Would you fire Howard Fox and start with with a new regime? He sort of epitomizes the old Griffith machine or would you identify it with the scouting system or why we simply can't ever seem to come up with new Young ballplayers that the say the Dodger organization does year after year after year the I think that maybe I mean to I swear I think you've overstayed a little a little how this point it at the twins organization has been the Twins were really quite a good team throughout most of the 60s. And as late as 7 1970. They were extremely good team throughout most of the seventies. They played sort of 500 Hundred baseball for the most part there weren't this really isn't an organization in a class with the Chicago Cubs or the Cleveland Indians that has just been knocked around really bad. I know though that it is frustrating. I think it is an organization that has done some things. Well, I don't I think that the really the talent. I mean the Frontline town at the star Talent has been quite good you've had the Tony Oliva as you had the rod carew's and the and the Harmon Killebrew and Ken her backs and the Kirby Puckett. What you have not been able to do is to finish off the team and get it to the top of the division. Thank you. I have one further question. It seems to me in listening to Major League game of the week that Tony kubek seems to have a great deal of insight is to the as to the game itself. What do you make in your opinion a good manager? It'd be a disaster. He's abrasive is hard to get along with and he it just wouldn't work the The why was it a I think that it would if I were the owner of the twins God forbid the I would I would try to fix the problems rather than before trying to clear house. If that didn't work then maybe go back to step 1. Okay. Thanks a lot. (00:52:01) Thank you Madeline. Let's get another caller on the line now for Bill James here on ksjn will go to st. Paul. Hi John. (00:52:07) Good morning. First. I want to thank both host and guest for an enjoyable program. I'd like to get your comments and just a couple of things one. Do you think of really makes a difference to in turning a ballplayer around to move from one club to another one example here, of course is Ron Davis the talk about being traded whether a new location might help him get back in the groove and secondly, could you comment generally on what kind of effect you think the growth in no-trade Clause has or trade detail Clauses are having and the way players move around now the frequency with which players change teams is almost the same as it has always been There have never been drive any players who played the turned over from Team to team is about 20% per year. That is if you look at at the a hundred players about 80 of them will be playing with the same team next year. The long-term turnover is almost the same as it as it has historically has been I think that it is desirable that the player have some choice in where he plays as anybody else does. I don't see any reason why the player has to be a sort of chess piece that has moved around to accommodate other people's interest. I think it's to my mind it's more the illusion of being a baseball fan is more gratifying to think that this guy wants to play here and then to think that that he has to play here that he has no choice in the matter. So I think that's a positive thing. It's Its impact on it may be sort of a nuisance for the team. So I think its impact on the game is quite positive pictures and a lot of what people think is pitching is is actually the defense behind them. You got to go out like John Tudor was on Boston a time that Boston wasn't very good defensively. They didn't have a short stop at all and catching at that time at that point wasn't real good. He was in a hitters park Fenway Park, the combination of those things tends to create an earned run average around 350 or four and a five hundred record. You take the same picture and move him st. Louis where home runs are are very rare. And you have Ozzie Smith behind you at defense and is record looks a whole lot better and people think boy that's the trade had a tremendous impact on it. Well what had it straightened we have an impact on him. It had a record impact on his on his record. I think that there are some cases where a trade will change. Give a player a fresh start and he'll have new enthusiasm but that's just one of the things that happens when it when a player is traded (00:54:44) bill. I want to thank you for taking an hour out from fatherhood and anything else you could be doing at this hour of the data it to come and talk to us. I want to say that the 86 abstract was outstanding. I thought the best of the five that have been published by Ballantine yet. And I recommend it highly to the people out there who haven't read it and I look forward to many many more. Thank you very much Bill. Thank you for having me on today. Bill. James has been with us this afternoon from his home in Kansas and it's nice here in some educated baseball talk as we get ready for our what I think are the Grimace days of the year the days before and after the All-Star game when there's no baseball no twins to listen to while I'm washing the dishes course. I was in a ksjn all the time. I shouldn't say listen the twins. That's right get it right there. Mr. Preston. My thanks to Dave sleep who did the technical stuff and Sue winking my associate producer who does much much more work than she ever gets credit for on the air and actually makes all this possible and I haven't thanked them either one of them the past couple of weeks and I thank them now profusely and next week Mark going to talk to Jim Peterson formal University of Minnesota basketball star now. NBA's Houston Rockets, Jim is going to come talk to us on this portfolio that ought to be interesting especially hearing was it last week? We heard from the fellow who had represented him as a player agent and as he had some real interesting things to say about Peterson and his career. So we get Jimmy In the Flesh. Yes. He'll be right here in the studio face-to-face with me. Not quite nose to nose. His nose is higher than mine. Okay. Hey, I've been meaning to check it since we've been talking about statistics here you and I every Saturday is a basically nasty things about the Twins and my sense is that the twins win a lot Saturday night if you looked into that at all. No, I didn't bring up my little I have a I have a little score pair where I have all the games and all the dates and all the scores and I could check that real quickly, but I'm sorry. I can't I didn't bring it up. All right, we'll do it next week you're going to do the 3M thing. I said, I am going to do the 3M thing right ahead around people that our program is made possible by economics laboratory products and services for household industrial and institutional cleaning worldwide. Mpr's coverage of issues related to education is made possible in part through a grant from 3M makers of postum. Post-it brand notes

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