(00:00:00) I think for this seminar competition and cooperation. Power and sharing finding the balances is indeed both provocative and challenging. So in preparing my remarks for today. I have chosen the something the changing profile of the American Workforce impact and implications. I have chosen this particular sub thing. Because I believe it is first necessary. to examine the changes the Dynamics the trends that are presently taking place in the workforce in order to put in some contexts the concepts of cooperation competition job security power-sharing and they're in Clearly when we examine the trends that are before us today the impact and the implications of these Trends are really too numerous for discussion in the allotted time that we have here. And so I have chosen to focus the second portion of my remarks on simply two particular areas that those Trends suggest for us one is the impact of high technology on today's society. And the second is the impact and the implications. Of the changeover of our economy from a manufacturing one of goods to an economy that is now clearly becoming dominated by growth in the service sector. But it is also being dominated by growth in the area where there are low-paying jobs and it is the area in the workforce that the jobs have been traditionally held by women and (00:02:25) minorities. (00:02:27) But first, let me turn to the discussion of some of the more critical Trends and clearly the first one that we would want to pay special attention to is simply the composition of the workforce itself today. At the end of 1984 the civilian workplace will register at nearly 117 million and that is compared to approximately 83 million and just 1917. That composition shows our workplace to be comprised of approximately 66 million men and 50 million women. There were 93 million white workers 10.5 million black workers and nearly 6 million Hispanic workers. Women account for 43 percent of the nation's Workforce blacks and other minorities make up approximately 19% but perhaps the most outstanding quantitative change that we talked about when we look at the composition of today's workplace are the increased labor force participation rates of women that have been on the upsurge while the participation rates of men have begun to decline. For example in nineteen seventy men 16 years of age and over were participating in the workplace at nearly 80 percent that is 80% of all men who are in the working age population were looking for work. By mid Nineteen Eighty-Four that rate had declined several percentage points to approximately 72 percent. By comparison women's participation rate Rose from 43 percent to fifty one percent over the same period in fact for the first time in history in 1978. We reached the point where we had more women who were working outside of the home in the paid Workforce that were employed and I always use the term employed inside the home. It's important to note that two-thirds of the labor markets expansion. In fact, since the 1970s has in fact been comprised of women. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that we can expect on into 1990 this same percentage proportionate ratio to occur and that our numbers will reach somewhere between 122 million and 128 million. And while the quantitative Trends have been significant. Of equal significance is the second Trend that I'd like to discuss and that is the important occupational Trends away from good producing and Manufacturing occupations into the services occupations, especially the information occupations. The information occupations were only 15 percent of jobs in 1950. But today they represent over 55 percent of new jobs in the workplace today. This change has contributed to the decentralisation of Industry to rural areas and the Sunbelt and it has certainly reduced the size of producing units. If we were to look at specific fields of growth, we would find that certain areas like data processing machine mechanics will grow by 93% for computer analyst 71 percent for computer systems analyst 67 percent for computer programmers 49 percent In the field of engineering by 1990 there will be growth of approximately 40% with an annual estimated number of openings at 46,000. And if we take one particular area today around us and that is cable television over 200,000 people will be employed in this field by 1990 contrast that if you will to 50,000 today and only 25,000 in (00:07:45) 1975 (00:07:48) as we discuss as we are so often doing now, however, the growth and information occupations the growth and shift in particular and high-tech jobs. I think it is very important to point out and to remember especially for those of us who are educators. That not all of the new jobs in our economy are going to be in the high-tech or computer area as we all strive to become CL these days computer literate. It's important to remember that the fastest number of growing jobs in our economy into 1990 and 1995 will in fact be janitors. It will be fast food workers. That number is somewhere around 800,000 by 1990. It's going to be the health Fields 85 thousand registered nurses 60,000 licensed practical nurses 94,000 nurses aides. And of course it is going to be clerical employees. And what is significant to note here? Is that the area where the growth is taking place? The fastest in our economy is also the area that is dominated by low-wage occupations. And I think that is something that is very important for us to keep in mind as we talk about the impact in particular in the growth in the high-tech field because we must know that the service economy is hardly a happy alternative for workers who have been getting high pay let us say in just the Auto industry Alone William Whip and singer who is the president of the International Association of machinists and Aerospace workers notes that there is no consolation or satisfaction for the 250 to 300 a week auto mechanic working now at minimum wage. the McDonald's Stan to put it another way. We should note that in the late 1960s and early 1970s roughly 67 percent of all new jobs in Industry had an average annual wage that was paying thirteen thousand and six hundred dollars. That has to be contrasted with the average annual wage that was paid in (00:10:48) manufacturing (00:10:51) of twenty thousand and six hundred dollars. Now, that's an important average discrepancy to particular take note of when we look at the shift that is taking place from the service economy to the manufacturing economy. And it raises all sorts of implications for us about the educational level of the workforce and issues for training, which is the third Trend that I would like to speak to. The educational level of the workforce has increased significantly since World War Two and no doubt is a part of your discussions on yesterday where you had the discussions and a great deal of the emphasis on the aspects of Education competition and cooperation. You probably have more statistics than you care to hear and at the risk of being repetitive from yesterday's session. I won't repeat a number of the statistical profiles as it relates to education and work today, but I do think there are certain things that do bear repeating or maybe I am saying some things for the first time. And that is first of all we need to note that the educational attainment of workers between the races and the Sexes is actually approximately equal today. However, even with the educational attainment being approximately the same we still have large discrepancies in earnings for instance a black woman who has a high school degree and in some instances some years of college still earns less than a white male who has only an eighth grade education. And we can go in and look from the earnings picture at other earnings disparities as it relates to educational attainment, but overall if we look at the higher levels of educational attainment between 1966 and the early 1980s. The number of people receiving Bachelor degrees doubled and the number of people receiving Masters and phds degrees increased approximately Justice fast. Now this increase in the levels of educational attainment certainly has a number of implications for us. First of all increased Education and Training has been responsible for sustained economic growth though. This growth has been occurring at diminishing rates in the 1970s. Higher levels of educational attainment however, do intensify the competition for good jobs and it clearly places those with limited education or training at a very serious labor market disadvantage today. For those without skills today and without the sufficient educational and training blackground indeed face a very Bleak future for in the new electronic world of work. They will find it even harder to break out of the bottom of the ladder than they do. Now. This is especially true for those group of persons in the workforce that we characterized as the structurally unemployed. Those who are locked in because of various structural disorders in our economy that prevent their participation when you contrast the needs of this group, Who must now compete with workers who have been dislocated and who are in need of retraining and in some cases additional educational emphasis. It makes for a whole new interesting set of relationships as we explore the issues in particular of competition and cooperation for these people now have little choice but to serve as foot soldiers in the armies of the service economy, which as I have already indicated is expected to produce a lot of low-paying jobs particularly for fast food workers for janitors for Clerks. And so the whole notion of competition and power-sharing becomes very much into play into these segments of the workforce when we are all struggling against a new standard of living in a declining standard of economic growth. And I think the notion of competition. As it relates to Education and Training is equally dramatic when it comes to making room for those who have been locked out. And for those now who are in need of new training When We examined a fourth Trend in the workplace today, and that is the whole shift in the age composition of the workforce itself. Now we've had a lot of debate and a lot of discussion about all of the higher rates of youth unemployment that we have experienced in our economy. This has been an issue that has been particularly a point in the minority communities, especially the black communities where the teenage unemployment rate has well, exceeded more than 50% Well as we move into the late 80s and into the 1990s, we are told that the youth job pressure will be relieved somewhat by the fact that four million fuel use between the ages of 16 and 24 years of age will enter the workforce. The most dramatic change will be in that age group of 25 to 24 year old daughters who are in now reflecting and I'm in that group the Aging of the post-war baby. Boom. I was going to stop and take a poll and this room to see how many were in that group, but I can see that most of you here would fit into that category. The Aging of the post-war baby. Boom. Has all kinds of implications not just in terms of the economy as we examine it today and the whole notion of job competition and cheering but I think it is also and I know this is not a forum for political discussion, but I think in this transition we can also see the new shape that is perhaps giving shape to some of the New Politics that we see in the country today particularly as we speak of moving from periods of liberalism to more periods of conservatism them because in 1975, there were only 39 million people in this particular category of the 25 to 44 year old daughter's by 1990. There will be over 60 million people in this particular category. The whole issue of an older Workforce of a workplace that has a longer attachment and a greater history will no doubt intensify job competition because it is this age group that now constitutes over half of all workers be they male or female be they black white brown or other races intensified competition for jobs probably will make this group less supportive of affirmative action programs for women and minorities unless special efforts are made to gain their support. It is also important to note that in 1935 when the social security system was passed. There were only 11 workers for each one over 65 not working only 11 workers for each one over 65 not working today that ratio is three two one. It is three to one today and by 1990 we are told that that ratio will be 221. So when you hear all of the discussions and the debate about the solvency of the social security system, and what we're going to do there, you can see the tremendous magnitude of the problem when you simply examine the numbers now of who we're talking (00:21:37) about. (00:21:40) V Trend the last Trend that I'd like to discuss briefly this morning. Is something that has been labeled perhaps as the most important labor market trend of this (00:21:58) century (00:22:00) and that is the interrelationship. between job practices and family practices Now I always say. Let Cinderella simply doesn't live here anymore. And even if she did and even if Cinderella were lucky enough to meet Prince Charming today. It is more likely that Prince Charming is not going to come riding up on a horse, but he's going to come riding up on a Honda and he's going to need help with the payments now. the translation the translation of all of that means That in 1950. Seventy percent of American households were headed by men whose sole income was the sole source of family income. today only 15% and it is decreasing a families fit this traditional model. Where Dad goes to work and mom stays home to take care of the baby the dog the house and whomever is left there with her. We still operate in a society where we assume this to be the pervasive family model. And in fact, it is not This change clearly has profound implications for us and I'm sure that most of you here in your own work environments are already experiencing the impact of so many of the issues that are now closely interrelating the whole area of work and family whether we are talking about child care whether or not we are discussing now flexible work Arrangements. Part-time work job sharing turn it to leave maternity leave. All of these are new Concepts. I just finished participating in a conference on the Notions of childcare and particular paternity leave and maternity leave and I was surprised to find that the United States now out of all of the Western countries is the only country that does not have some form of paternity leave as well as maternity leave as a part of some of its employment options programs, but these questions when we begin to talk about the company bottom line, And new ways of measuring productivity. Clearly suggest that we must have new ways of not only viewing competition, but that the Notions of cooperation the Notions of sharing power and the way we in fact find the balance has to Grapple with these questions will have significant importance to us. Not only as we struggle today, but especially as we move into the next decade with the growth in the service sector with more and more women coming into the workplace and at the same time as we move into a high technological Society, Let me turn for a few moments now from the trends to discussing some of those issues from the high-tech perspective as it relates to the impact issue. We all know that us businesses have of course been working now for a number of years with computers and robots. Banks have had long time automated check processing for instance and many plants use computer control robots for welders. But these are Standalone systems that have taken over single functions and their impact has been very modest in the view of Professor Skinner at the Harvard be school. Now companies are moving to integrated offices and factories systems with hierarchies of computers and hierarchies of robots. The number of robots will grow a few thousands a day to an estimated 100,000 by 1990. And the number of electronic workstations from four million today to 25 to 30 million as a result of 5 to 15 year period profound and dramatic changes will occur in factories and many service occupations. And it isn't just the speed and efficiency of computers that work will revolutionize but it is the way that computers will fundamentally change the relationship as I'm sure we've often heard today between a worker and their task. work now becomes extract the electronic manipulation of symbols different jobs now become similar The bank auditor who wants dropped in unannounced at Branch offices and the pulp Mill operator who walked the line with wrench in hand now both sit in front of computer screens monitoring online information bosses will certainly have to change the way they handle the workforce the old kick them in the butt and take names School of running a plant simply isn't effective with today's workplace. Paradoxically technology also offers a means of controlling employees more closely than ever before. The loss ratio and a loans officers portfolio of the number of calls handled by phone operator can be managed to constantly and compare now with Norms. So while the boss may not be around much anymore employees will in fact be tied more closely to Performance standards. Executives you who are in this room today will have to change as much as anyone. As companies seek to cut overhead many May flatten their bureaucracies by eliminating whole layers of management. The managers Who Remain will probably have to do more for themselves. Instead of dispatching an aid to hunt up data the senior vice president may have to get it out of the computer himself or herself instead of calling a secretary to take dictation. If you still have one you might talk on the phone to a dictating machine today in the word processing center. I think the telephone system especially epitomizes the shift from the Industrial Age to the information age not surprisingly both AT&T and its principal Union the communication workers of America have been thinking a lot about the work in the future. A caw committee along with others from management this spring described a future environment in which among other things the Union's members will have more knowledge and more power to make decisions. They will have less rigidly defined jobs. They will spend more time solving problems rather than performing wrote task the committee also concluded that as workers become more mobile and Scattered or some perhaps even from working from their homes. They will certainly be out of sync with what we call traditional unionism but faced with becoming a competitor in a deregulated Communications business AT&T is already changing the role in some of its workers in a way that already fits the caw sighs predictions of the workforce of the future. Like most telephone installers and repair people known these days as systems technicians. Take the case of Paul lacus who is now 32 there. He used to go to work and jeans his waist encumbered with a sagging belt loaded with tubes. Now. He makes his calls from Pacific telephone and Sunnyvale, California in slacks shirt and tie with his tools. Neatly stowed away in a briefcase. Instead of a van. He now drives a company sedan. He used to be assigned jobs at random working off of a list handed to him by his supervisors. With each job that was closely time today. He works only with five corporate clients and he decides what needs to be done and when And while the sophisticated technical skills. As in the case of mr. Lamp, it's will be needed more and more in the 21st century. It seems to me that we need to be sure. That we add along with that term that we are calling more and more life enhancing skills. Well, I believe that our technology will clearly accelerate at the same time alienation. There is something that fundamentally bothers me inside when I read today or when I visit companies today and I see robots monitoring when people go to the bathroom and how long it takes them to come back to the bathroom. I'm waiting for the day where they're going to ask you. What did you do while you were in the bathroom, but we have to be very cognizant. I think at the same time of all of the new technology of what the balance has to be. We need to develop a special kind of sensitive violence for Cooperation and yet for something that's still Fosters a spirit of individualism that allows people to work in Harmony in the new areas of competition as they arrive. And how we prevent these feelings of isolation and some of the new terminology that is emerging such as Techni stress. We need to pay a special attention. I think to how these feelings of isolation and the issues of techne stress impacted the same time. What is largely going to be the new generation of workers that's going to be largely women and some minorities. Because if it is true that the information age is being called a Second Industrial Revolution, then clearly we must be very careful not to repeat the mistakes of the past and we must not repeat the whole cycle of exploitation that characterized the first Industrial Revolution. We don't want to return to the luddites. For those of you who don't remember what the luddites were. They were the people in the first Industrial Revolution who went around and who destroyed all of the machines who tore them up because they were perceived as taking the jobs away from the people the challenge that we have before us today because certainly no one is saying not to move into high-tech would be foolish to say it. Anyway, we're already there the issue is how do we make the people compatible with the Machine age? And how do we introduce the spirits of cooperation? And at the same time not lose the Competitive (00:37:01) Edge (00:37:04) We know that workers today some of them in fact, like working with the new machinery. But it is important that we give the proper introduction that we have the necessary adequate adjustments and that we give the necessary retraining that goes with the transitional changes in our society today. We must recognize that with the capability to produce more and to produce more efficiently. There is a certain amount of tension and it would be foolish of us. It seems to me not to seek new ways of cooperation when the new technology itself is really designed to make life easier for all of us, but we have to pay special attention to listen to what is happening, especially in our work environments. We read a great deal today and we hear a great deal today, especially about the impact of technology in the clerical work area. And we're told that we are now having more and more stress related issues and health related issues that come into place from Simply sitting for long periods of time out of word processor. We have to be careful that our balance and our drive to produce more is not somehow a counter balanced by the need now to take rest breaks and to get the eyes away from the screens to have the proper lighting to be conscious of the new noise factors. All of these are issues that require new forms of communications between employers between employees and it really turns out to be between more and more women who are coming into the workplace and to those of us who are in positions of authority in the companies in which we work. But all of these issues certainly suggests that we have to also at the same time that we are paying special attention to Simply the environment that this new generation of workers is entering into that. We do pay special attention to the training and retraining needs that go along with this because while there are many other non-white minority's that have also come into the workforce. We have to recognize that blacks Hispanics and women will predominate in the sector of the workforce where technology is growing but also the they will predominate in that sector of the workforce, which is the service economy as I've already indicated that is experiencing the highest growth rates herb healing noted Economist for When he is with the NAACP stated that we have no choice but to equip ourselves for the future that is upon us. We have to retrain the millions whose current jobs can be kissed. Goodbye and who will be needed for new work. We have to boost the skills of the still employed and pound knowledge and to the millions of adults who are functionally illiterate today. We have to ensure that once and for all education training and job opportunities for women for blacks and for Hispanics will be there for they will make of the overwhelming majority of new workers. And this generation of new workers largely women and minorities. competing with a generation of older workers Who have been displaced by heavy manufacturing and who are in fact also in need of upgrading who are in need of special training tells us that we must have new methods to approach traditional problems and not so traditional problems because indeed the survival of this nation depends upon it the prophet Gibran rights. You work that you may keep Pace with the earth and the soul of the Earth. Afford to be idle is to become a stranger unto the seasons and to step out of life's procession that marches and majesty and proud submission towards life's infinite. I don't think there is anyone in this room this morning who would argue the fact that we do have today. Large numbers of our people who have in fact step out of life's procession. They comprise the ranks of the unemployed. They comprise the ranks of the displays who have become strangers and to the seasons and who need the attention and who need the new direction that so many of you in this room will have the responsibility to provide. There is no question that you have a lead role in shaping the future direction of this nation. You are in positions of responsibility. Well, I don't believe that you would be a part of this seminar. Many of you will be instrumental in helping the workers of Tomorrow make the critical decisions that become the turning point in their lives today. Someone has said that the purpose of education is to make people aware of what it is and to incite them to probe into what maybe it teaches them to understand to evaluate to communicate to prepare. And so in this sense, we are all Educators, and I hope that you will carry out your role and take some direction from the new realities that have clearly upon us today as we move from a manufacturing age to an information age. And as we move from a society of all workers to more workers and new workers to a service economy that is becoming increasingly dominated by women and minorities today. Thank you. That's a very real phenomenon. When you look at the growth that is why when I talked about the competition in the educational area in particular that is the area in the middle class with people are getting college degrees and phds where increased job competition is going to become the greatest because what you would assume all to occur is that in this group, you would have more of a transition over into some of the new high-tech jobs. That is the Assumption one would normally make but that is in fact not happening. So you have real dichotomies in the workforce. You have the lower paying jobs that are dominated by low-skilled low-wage earners and that's an area that's continuing to grow. You've got the high-tech jobs. Here there are taking place and in the Middle where you have the so-called middle-class in manufacturing in some of the professional areas teachers really on the decline really on the decline. It's a question of which way do you go you go here for the retraining to take advantage of these kinds of jobs or are we going to have the competition taking place more and more at the low end of the Spectrum in the service economy where the jobs are growing also. I mean we can't get away from the issue of upgrading the jobs in the service sector. I mean that that's got to be a central point of public debate and public policy. It seems to me on the part of both the employing community private and public sectors. Well if you look at the numbers. We're told that we're spending approximately 40 billion dollars on the so-called retraining and upgrading of the workforce today one. We need to talk about how much is needed. Is that enough and clearly that's not a debate for the for this session. But if you just take what's being put out the break out of that we're told is about 30 billion dollars from corporations investing in the retraining about 10 billion from private sources and approximately 4 billion today from the government through the new jeptha legislation. And I guess that subject to perhaps be even reduced depending on the present discussion that is taking place on the new round of budget cuts for fiscal year 86, so That sort of the composition of Who's involved in the effort today? And I know that does not speak to the question of how do you get to the masses? I like to have a political discussion with your separate from this Podium, which is another kind of issue about the kinds of issues. We need to communicate if we're talking about not only power but empowerment and what does that mean? I believe that we have to have very aggressive programs on the part of the public sector and the private sector still on in this area. I don't believe as public policy Direction has taken today that we can leave this type of critical intervention on the to be the burden of just the private sector alone. The public sector has had a great deal of experience in this area. And I think that we have to find ways to reward corporations for getting more actively and aggressively involved in hiring young people particularly in Hiring Our inner-city Youth and already use who in fact, you're right. We're raising a whole generation of young people who will never know what it is to work. And unless we go back and find ways to really reward that kind of behavior, whether it's through tax incentives or other kinds of programs. I think that we are headed for a very very dangerous and Bleak future in this area. We have to know that when we talk about the fast-food area if you just take one segment of the economy that is growing as quickly as it is most people see that as an area for instance where I use can be employed and get some job experience. But you also have to know that most of that growth is not taking place in the inner cities. It's taken place in Suburban communities where we're not located. So there's another whole issue of where the jobs are and how can we have the kind of economic recovery policies that also bring the jobs back in the Community or help keep the jobs in the community. Those are the kinds of public policy debates that have to go on and to be strengthened if we're going to make any indentation into the high rates of unemployment particularly for black youth.