(00:00:00) To begin, I will discuss some past and expected future Trends in population in Minnesota. I will then describe some of the larger demographic characteristics of Minnesota and finally their implications for future change between 1970 and 1980 the population of Minnesota increased by 7% while the United States increased by 11% much of the US growth in population occurred in Sun Belt states of the North Central States, including our for Neighbors, Minnesota had the fastest rate of population growth. Population change results from the interaction of three factors migration deaths and births during the 1970s more people moved into the state than moved out. This was the first time in several decades greater migration occurred in the newer suburbs, the X Urban Fringe around the Twin Cities and in some North Central counties in the lake regions, while Minnesota loses young adults to migration, it receives substantial numbers of people in their 30s some counties in The Lakes Lakes area of North Central Minnesota also receives substantial numbers of older persons death rates in Minnesota, remain low and stable the 1970s saw a substantial increase in longevity. However, for example women 65 years of age the expected remaining years of life increased by approximately one and a half years. The size of the increase in longevity is especially remarkable since Minnesota already had one of the longest-lived populations in the World in 1970 and some experts believed substantial increases were unlikely the third component of population change and probably the most significant for social and economic change in Minnesota is births during the 1920s and into the 1930s verse declined very low levels and remain low during the early 1940s in the late 1940s burst began to rise rapidly continue to rise during the 1950's and peaked around 1960 this generation born largely during the 1950's is called the baby boom generation after 1960 burst fell precipitously until 1973 the generation born during the sick a 1960s and early 1970s is often referred to as the baby bus generation since 1973 bursts of continue to increase and should increase for a few more years and then the client the current increase in bursts are not due to a larger. To desire for larger families, but rather are the result of result from the large numbers of women in childbearing years. The baby, boom generation is having children now. This boom-bust phenomenon of burst results in an unusually large generation followed by a much smaller generation and is probably the most significant demographic characteristic for economic and social change in 1980. Almost one of three minnesotans were between the ages of 18 and 34 further. This characteristic is true. Not only for Minnesota, but also for the nation just had a major impact on such areas as education demand for housing labor force in employment and politics to examine the effects of this phenomena and I will discuss three concepts the life cycle social change and Expectations first the life cycle describes the tendency of people to do approximately the same types of things at about the same point in their lives. People enter school at about the same age progress through school and graduate enter the labor force look for housing get married have children and so on all at about the same age the baby boom generation is now in its 20s and early 30s in 1970 when the boom generation was in his teens and early 20s secondary schools in higher education enrollments were exploding since then School enrollments plummeted resulting in many school closings at that time the labor force began to grow rapidly as the boom generation left high school and young people began to look for jobs in record numbers demand for housing Rose sharply and increasing numbers of single adults in her to Social Scene. The 1970s was a period characterized by the youth movement. Will the 1980s be a mid-years movement. Second couple with the lifecycle fact of the boom generation during 1970s Minnesota in the US has a hole saw major change major social changes. One of the most important of these was a sharp increase in participation of women in the labor force in 1970 43 percent of women, 25 to 34 years of age were in the labor force in 1980. Approximately 70% participate in the labor force. The result is a rapid growth in women in the labor force women are increasingly becoming Partners in the work force and with the increasing tendency to work away from home comes comes a new sector of services to meet the needs of working women and to our families such as fast foods. Take care excetera. The third major concept is expectations. What do people expect our life. We all have an extra set of expectations in the back of our minds if we do certain tests and we expect certain rewards expectations are formed largely from examining the experiences of the previous generation the parents of the boom generation grew up mainly in the 1930s. They are products of the Great Depression understandably, their expectations were exceeded while the economy of the 1950s and 60s experienced strong growth their children the boom generation grew up expecting to get a good job regular promotions a nice three-bedroom Suburban House Country Cottage Etc. The expectations of the baby boom generation. I suggest have been relatively unmet I cannot argue whether or not their expectations were reasonable. I will argue. However, that their unmet expectations are at least partial result of the very size of their generation. Because of their numbers the baby boom generation has had to wait in line at almost every age in the 1970s the economy strain to absorb their entry into the labor force, but to a large degree they have been absorbed in Minnesota between 1969 and 1981 Tolan total employment increased by almost 30% faster than the nation and faster than any of our neighboring states between 1975 and 1980. The number of business establishments increased by 11% again faster than any of our neighbors per capita income Rose by 83% between 1975 and 1981. And the number of families below poverty decreased by 5% during the 70's average education Rose sharply and the number of housing units increased by more than 26% during the decade the baby boom is done reasonably. Well, but not as well as it expected the baby buzz Generation Now largely in its teens has The frustrations of the baby boom generation has adjusted its expectations to waiting in line longer. What does the future look like? I don't have a crystal ball. However, we can examine some of the possibilities in their implications during the 1980s. The number of small children will increase in the number of school-aged children will continue to decline young adults will increase but at a much slower rate than during the 1970s, the number of persons in their middle years will increase at a faster rate. Largely due to the Aging of the baby. Boom generation. The number of people 65 and older will continue to increase though at a slightly slower rate for State policy purposes. One of the most important departures from the past during the 1970s was a decline in school enrollments the decline began sharply following years a rapid increase and resulted in such actions is school closings in reductions and teaching staffs the 1980s. We'll see a continued decline in enrollment second in secondary schools, while Primary School enrollments will begin to increase Maintaining quality education teaching staffs and school buildings is always a difficult task. But in this era of sharp increases in enrollments followed by a sharp declines in enrollments followed by sharp increases and so on maintaining quality education becomes even more difficult preparing for and adjusting to such changes must remain a priority both for the state and for individual school districts declines and secondary enrollments will also likely translate into declines in higher education enrollments by approximately mid-decade the oldest members of the baby bus generation are now entering our colleges universities and other institutions of higher education. These institutions have generally been geared to Rapid increases in enrollment living in an era of decline will pose a totally new set of problems to solve in addition to education changes in the labor force will be one of the most important areas of policy in interest for the 1980s. The 1970s was a period of unusually rapid rapidly growing labor force exceeding three percent per year for most of the decade these increases resulted from the Aging of the baby boom generation and the growing participation of women in the labor force the rapid rate of Labor Force growth during the decade created a strain on the economy to absorb these new workers youth unemployment. Rose workers accepted jobs at lower levels productivity levels decline is Young workers learned on the job promotions came less often than expected and real incomes did not rise as rapidly as expected. We are now in a major recession and unemployment rates are very high under these circumstances. What I'm about to say may seem unrealistic is difficult to forecast economic growth three or four years from now, but I do believe that we will return to a more normal economic growth pattern. At least that's what the economist told us today. As we do we will begin to see a considerable slowing in the growth of the labor force to approximately 1% by per year by the end of the decade. This will represent a major break from past experience some forecasters believe that by the end of the decade national unemployment will be near zero less you believe that this is impossible consider West Germany is experienced during the 1960's. They did not have a baby boom until our economy can adjust to the slowing in the labor force growth labor shortages in some occupations and in some localities are possible since we have no experience with such a situation is difficult to fully understand the policy affects. Certainly. We will need to be more efficient in placing workers in the most productive jobs. We will also need to be more flexible and efficient in training and retraining people for the jobs of the future. We will not be able to afford workers trained for the jobs the past and this endeavor education business labor and government must work closely together in a rapidly changing and radically new environment. We will need to tap non-traditional supplies of Labor engage in major retraining efforts to teach new occupations and skills and encourage a geographically spread growth to prevent new pockets of unemployment. Population change is a bit like an old-fashioned Minnesota thunderstorm. We cannot stop it, but with proper preparation we can benefit from the rain and maybe not get too wet. In the past some population changes have caused problems for State policy because the changes were largely unanticipated with proper foresight was should be able to accommodate and prosper from the coming population changes. Thank you.