It is a privilege to be asked for third time at a Minnesota Horizons program. As I reflected on my two previous presentations, I was struck by their consistency. Today's presentation is not substantively different from the previous ones. I'll be at the focus is naira worth. In the 1975 Minnesota Horizons program. I presented population projections and closed with a summary of some anticipated fundamental shifts in the age structure. A quick review of the population projections made in 1974. And those made in 1982 is instructive. The 1974 projection for the Year 1980 was incredibly accurate a bit of luck. I might say. The 1974 projections for 1990 and the year 2000 have been modified downward only slightly by those made in 1982. Over the eight years between projections all evidence continues to point to relatively slow growth for, Minnesota. Growth slower than the nation is not new for, Minnesota. But a characteristic of the entire post World War II. Why are these projections for relatively slow growth could be altered by changes in fertility levels. We have little reason to believe that migration will play a significant factor in the growth of this state in the remaining years of this Century. Minnesota was a major exporter of people in the decade of the 40s and 50s that Trend modified in the decade of the 60s and finally in the seventies the state experienced a slight net in-migration. The proportion of current residents who were born in this state is an indicator of our low level of net in-migration. Minnesota is among the top 10 states in which 75% or more of the current population is residing in the state of its birth. Warning of coming changes in cohorts sizes that result from past fluctuations in the numbers of births is the main contribution demographers can make the planning for changes in such areas as School enrollment the labor market housing other public goods and services and ultimately to the estimation of revenues. We know that both the demand for public services and the revenues to support them grow and shrink in proportion to the population in specific age group. The relatively slow growth rate of the 1970s conceals large variations among individual age groups, and I would like to remind you that the changes among the age groups are more important than the overall growth rate. Let's look at some of the changes in age groups during the 1970s the student population and I've delineate adhere as ages 5 to 14 declined by 23% but college and Military age population increased by 19% prospective homebuyers groom by 48% the heaviest consumers of healthcare those 65 and over increased by 19% The same age group show for their shifts in the decade of the 1980s. For example, the student population is projected to increase 3% Not substantial, but it ends the decline. The College of military age population is 2 is projected to decrease by 22% Prospective homebuyers are projected to increase by a mere 14% And indicator of an end to an housing. Boom. And the elderly are projected to increase 13% These ships are no longer news to us, but their importance must not be underestimated. This demographic transition will compel a shift of societal resources away from the needs of the young and toward the needs of the elderly as demographic change modifies whose wealth and income are redistributed to whom it will alter the consequences of existing legislation. I put before you as a current example Social Security at the national level. One of society's basic resources is its labor force? What I say today may seem incongruous in the light of the current high unemployment and a mentality dominated by recession. However, the changes in the age composition of the population have the potential of creating a radically different labor force and radically different issues from those of today or the recent past. Furthermore these changes are not blocked in some distant future, but could appear within the next three to four years. The rate of growth in the working population will slow. The 1970 Saab very rapid growth in the labor force and an employment 31% and 29% respectively. However, the main bones of the baby boom generation has entered the working ages that is 16 years of age and over. So the growth of the working population is expected to slow during this decade in the early part of the next decade as the number of people reaching working ages each year actually decreases. Further it is expected that women's participation in the labor force will continue to increase but not at the Revolutionary rates of the 1970s. The magnitude of the slowdown in labor force growth is best illustrated by the numbers. You previously saw the rates during the 1960's the average annual increase was 25,000. The 1970 saw a doubling of that to nearly 40,000 as an average annual rate growth in the labor force was slower in the earlier part of the decade of the 70s, very rapid in the latter part in the 1980s. The average annual increase will fall to the level of the sixties or be cut in half from what we recently experienced. The decline will accelerate or the end of the decade when the average annual increase will be 20000. This slowing of girls in the labor force will cause a tighter labor market. I hesitate to use the word scarcity. Although entry-level workers. May indeed be in scarce Supply a scarcity of entry-level workers made bid up the price of entry level jobs. If this happens the job market will compete with post-secondary education for young adults that is high wages and good opportunities were back in even more enticingly making the opportunity cost of staying in school wise. Perhaps the most important aspect of a slower rate of growth in the working population is that it's so sharply contrast with our current experience and hence our perception of problems and workable Solutions. We also have the forest changes in the age structure of the working of the working population in 1980 over half of the labor force was under the age of 35 by 1990. It will be older which means it will have fewer inexperience members. If 90 is the 1970s were. For the man of entry level positions. The 1980s will see a demand for advancement competition is likely to be intense. The working population today and throughout this decade has and will continue to have higher levels of educational attainment in 1980 persons to age 25 and over with a college education comprise 17% of that age group compared to 11% in 1970 and 8% in 1960. Can we see the next one, please? The potential for underemployment May Ward efforts for targeted job creation to better utilize labor force which was largely educated or trained with public dollars. Does today's labor force is composed of many more women that any other time previously? 43% of the labor force is comprised women and 55% of all Minnesota women age 16 and over were in the labor force in 1980 and Minnesota ranked among the top states and female labor-force participation with the majority of wives and mothers now holding paying jobs. The typical family is one in which both spouses are Breadwinners. Labor force participation of women with children under six exceeded 51% participation of women with children 6 to 17 was 68% and 62% of families had both spouses working perhaps no other single set of factors explain the social changes of the last decade better than these. I also want to recognize that the labor force will be influenced by changes other than those in age structure. The labor force is employed in a vast mix of occupations that together comprise the economy as we will know in the National economy. The composition of employment has been shifting during the last 40 years from manufacturing and agriculture into the services the shift toward Services while a continuous strand has accelerated since 1970. This trend is attributed among other things to a demand for social services and other human capital Industries. However, the increase in female labor-force participation women, especially attracted to service type jobs as indeed reinforce this We have become painfully aware of the shift of our national economy away from manufacturing, especially in stealing autos and the emergence of a truly competitive global economy as minnesotans. We feel the psychological effects of these changes as do all Americans. However, we are also experiencing the changes firsthand as a large number of our fellow citizens are unemployed as a result of the decline of the American Steel and auto Industries today on the threshold of the age of Robotics. The application of Technology takes on further meeting. But perhaps nothing symbolizes more fittingly the age we are entering in the naming of 1982 is the year of the computer. The effects of the changing age structure interacting with a changing economy and a changing technology are not clear yet. We can say with certainty that tomorrow will be different from today. Our needs concerns and priorities will change. The question is only how long before these changes are reflected in our Collective. Will thank you.