(00:00:00) Support for this program comes from the NPR news and information fund contributors include the Corporation for Public Broadcasting RKO General a radio and television Broadcasting Company. The communications workers of America representing 650,000 members Nationwide in telecommunications and other fields and for historical reporting the Pew Memorial trust. This program is a production of national public radio, which is solely responsible for its content. (00:00:46) From National Public Radio in Washington. This is an election 82 Special Report. (00:00:51) The responsibility obviously is clearly with this Administration. We must change course we must tell the American people why we need to change the course that should result in Democratic gains in the election of 1980 (00:01:02) to Democratic National committee. Chairman Charles manette believes. There's good news for his party in last week's bad news from the labor department unemployment climbed above 10 percent Nationwide for the first time since 1940. I'm Linda wertheimer will talk about the political impact of that statistic and we'll look at problems on the farms in this election 82 Special Report. President Reagan was in California last week when the unemployment figures were released from Los Angeles Steve futterman prepared this report on the president's reaction (00:01:44) this morning. We received the bad news. Of course that the nine point eight percent unemployment rate in our country had gone to 10.1% high unemployment figures are never good news for any president. But when the figures are the worst since the depression, it can be especially damaging so last week Ronald Reagan did all he could to cushion the negative Fallout he went on the counteroffensive as the new Figures were being released on Friday. The president was talking about new jobs originally. Mr. Reagan had scheduled only a meeting with the president elect of Mexico, but he made a last-minute addition to his schedule a stop at the harbor in Long Beach California for a bill signing ceremony with an American flag and a huge carrier ship as a backdrop. Mr. Reagan signed legislation making it easier to export goods create several. Thousand jobs at a minimum expense but Mr. Reagan also used the occasion to give his side of the unemployment picture what we must guard against those who will make it or try to make a political football out of this cruel fate for so many of our people and this bad news. It is an election year. Already some wood in this political footballing would try to load the entire blame for the 11 poor Earth the 10.1 I should say. It's not make it worse than it is 10.1 on the backs of our Administration. Well, I want to be fair about this. It was 7.4 when we started. Going to 10 .1 makes it 2.7 that has occurred since we've been there and I am willing to accept responsibility for the 2.7. If those others will accept responsibility for the 7.4 then mr. Reagan said something that could possibly haunt him in the future. It wasn't exactly a promise. Mr. Reagan chose the word guarantee really fair. I'll tell you this. I guarantee you we're going to accept responsibility in this Administration for finding jobs for all of the 10 .1. Mr. Reagan solution though continues to be his own not the job programs Democrats are pushing for instead. The President says his Economic Policy will result in new jobs. And he points to positive signs as proof runaway spending has been brought under control double-digit inflation the single greatest enemy of jobs growth and stability has been defeated the administration strategy seems quite clear despite last week's bad news. The White House is going to continue to focus on its accomplishments as it asks the voters to stay the course for national public radio. This is Steve futterman in Los Angeles (00:04:33) on his way back to Washington President Reagan stopped off in Texas to campaign for Republican Senate candidates and the theme of his speech at a rally near Dallas was the economy. (00:04:44) What we're doing is wrong, how do they explain the tremendous surge of investment in our equity and bond markets in the last few weeks? From from small investors to those who manage billions of dollars including workers Pension funds the world knows that America is on her way back and I'm pleased to announce a little news item right here. That's just happened at the closing bell of the stock market on Wall Street a few minutes ago. The stock market was over the magic 1,000. (00:05:20) Joining us now are John Sears who served as President Reagan's campaign manager and Robert Squire a political consultant for Democratic candidates, John. What do you make of that stock market figure when you balance it against the unemployment is does that work politically for the (00:05:37) president? Well, it may work a little bit but you know the stock market today is really not comparable to previous stock markets surges. What is simply happening today? Is that as the interest rates come down and as there is anticipation that they will come down further people who have had their money in the money market funds and managers of Pension funds who have kept their money in Banks and other money market devices are moving it to the stock market. So obviously that will create some increase in the stock market. I think the Republicans would all feel better off if it really were a sign that the people who are investing in the stock market really think that the corporate profits are going to rise in the future. It doesn't seem to indicate that now (00:06:18) Can the president is it a sensible strategy for the president to concentrate on the economy as he makes his political rounds in the last three weeks of the campaign Roberts choir. Do you think there's enough on the positive side or or is that unemployment figure going to going to be the big thing that voters will notice in care about (00:06:38) I think they're being realistic. I think they understand that unfortunately for them this election is ending on a democratic issue, but I think the big news of the end of this election. Is that unemployment got a first name in a middle name first name of doubled in the middle name of digit and that's going to be the most important factors. We move into the end of the selection. (00:06:56) Do you think it really matters that when unemployment goes into double digits be in the places where people care about unemployment the like, you know, say the Northern Tier of states the industrial states were unemployment is high unemployment has been above 10% for some time. So when the nation goes above 10% is that any kind of a milestone that really means anything on Sears (00:07:17) politically it means Simply because the breaking of the 10% barrier will in and of itself cause a lot more comment on the unemployment picture when you're talking of the unemployment figures as political issues what you're really talking about is how many people who presently hold jobs are going to be further made pessimistic by these new numbers and that perhaps will be considerable really the number of people who are already out of work as you were indicating earlier really grows. Tangentially. It is a little bit more each month and that's not really a big political matter but the as more and more people become concerned about really unemployment in their own lives that makes it a much bigger political issue Robert Square. I think also the problem that the Republicans have is that they are basically giving the idea to the American people that they have not reached yet what they would call the unacceptable level of unemployment and I think when you have one in 10 Americans out of work when you get this kind of Rise, you know, the President says 2.7 rise, and that's Is willing to you know, take responsibility for it's almost as if he is been convinced by his staff that the 7.4. He's not talking about it somehow gone back to work this unemployment that he's responsible for his stacked on the unemployment of previous generations and it's gotten to a level that I think is unacceptable. I think people thought that 10 points was almost a barrier we wouldn't reach it's a little like the four-minute mile now we're through it and I think people are fearing where it's going to go from here. Well, we had 11 12 13, etcetera John what other thing about it the announcement of the figure gives the Democrats a device really to keep the Republicans on the defensive during the critical last month of the campaign and perhaps the political significance of the breaking of the 10% barrier is mainly that from now on Republican candidates will be defending themselves and defending the administration about the state of the economy. The Democrats of course are now in a posture where they can take the positive and aggressive side, which usually results in votes. I think also most Social Security recipients understand that the number of people working is connected to Future in terms of the money that they can expect from the social security system when you've got this much of the work force not working. They are not contributing to that system. And that's also causing them a problem with you know, sort of another voting Bloc that they simply must have in order to carry the (00:09:31) election. Thank you very much. Gentlemen, NPR's Cokie Roberts is joining us in the studio. Koki you've been traveling in the South this past week is his unemployment in issue in the in the in the south is it is in the north and east. Well some parts of the south of course unemployment has been high for some time more rural unemployment than Urban unemployment. But as you told us last week from Texas, there's some feeling in the Sun Belt that the Boom is not still there as it was before and there are other parts of the South where the situation is very similar to the north take a state like Alabama which has a big or had a big steel industry and where unemployment is very high, which I think explains better than anything the renomination of Twala's for the Democratic governorship because people are not voting this year on any other issue than not voting blacks in the South and not voting on civil rights. People are not voting on abortion people not voting on the nuclear freeze people are voting on economics. And the thing that you see in the South and that you also see in places like Maine and all parts of the country that I've been to is that even for people who are working themselves. There's somebody they know who's out of work. They have a brother-in-law who's moved in with him because he's out of work or most importantly their children feel that they can't get the jobs that they were looking for and that's something you hear especially from women. They say my children. My kids just aren't making it. They're not having the kinds of lives that we expected them to have and that's very tough for a mother. You have a you you were looking at a race in the Senate where we all thought that age might be an issue Senator John stennis who is running for re-election. Election a senator for the 80s who's in his 80s. It's a and it even in a case like that are people looking to the Democrats and not concerned about age. Well senator stennis, of course is a Democrat of an interesting stripe. He did vote for the Reagan program down the line so that it's hard to sort of divide this race on liberal conservative issues. It's true though that senator stennis who voted against the Civil Rights bills of the past is probably going to get a sizable percentage of the black vote again because of the economic issue Democrats are being able to successfully go around Mississippi and say that the only thing that matters this year is to vote Democratic because of the economy, of course the other thing in Mississippi Linda and this has been true for a long time is that problem on the farms the district that I was particularly in a district in the Mississippi Delta Region a new Is either the highest agricultural District in the United States or the third-highest depending on who you're talking to and there you had a situation where the cotton crop is the greatest in history? No one has ever seen such a bumper cotton crop and no one has ever seen such rotten cop cotton prices. And of course that affects everything that affects the people who sell the farm implements and that affects the people who make the cottonseed oil and that affects the people who sell the cars to the people who make than all the service Industries all the way down the line and those people are really hurting now whether those farmers will translate that hurt into Democratic votes is a is another question. Of course in the South those Farmers tend to be what we call Yellow Dog Democrats. Anyway, thank you very much Cokie the region and of the country, which is perhaps hardest hit by the sagging Farm economy is the middle west several excellent harvests have meant Isis that are so low that farmers say they can't break even and that should cause some political consequences this November. We're going to take a look at Iowa's third congressional district about 14% of this districts residents are farmers many more live in small rural towns, which are dependent on the farm economy. The district also contains the city of Waterloo, which is suffered layoffs and farm equipment companies and because of redistricting the new 3rd District also includes Iowa City and its large student population at the University of Iowa in 1980 Republican Cooper Evans narrowly won his first term in Congress by beating Democrat Lynn Cutler Cutler is challenging again and all signs point to another extremely close race. The latest poll released this week by the Des Moines Register shows that among all voters Cutler is leading 51 to 44 percent among likely voters the poll shows Evans in the lead 52 47 percent, but the margins of error are high enough to show no clear leader. We have a report on the Cutler Evans raised. Morgan Lions of member station W sui (00:14:29) the Harvest is getting underway here in Iowa and early projections indicate that this year's corn crop will surpass last year's record Harvest that's bad news down on the farm during the 1981-82 marketing year the price of corn dropped 21 percent and that declined might have been even more severe at Iowa Farmers not kept a record number of more than 1 billion bushels in storage. In fact one farmer told me that while he waited for the price to rise. He had kept so much of last year's crops torn on his farm that he had to move his tractor out of his Machine Shed to make room for the extra corn before those Farmers vote in three weeks. They want the two candidates in this race to answer one question. I want them to tell me how they are going to get the supply in line with demand. Neither of the congressional candidates is answered that question and according to Samuel Patterson at University of Iowa political scientist. They may not need to we used to talk about The farm block you remember and the farm boat as if Farmers all voted in the same direction or tended very strongly in the same direction and that used to be very largely the case but that is no longer. So Patterson says that farmers now tend to vote like their cousins in the small rural communities. Usually Republican, but sometimes splitting their vote it is that larger population of rural residents that Republican incumbent Cooper Evans has targeted with radio and television spots like this Cooper Evans was born here raised here and farmed land that's been in his family since 1880. He's lived through hail and drought just like us Evans is also reminding farmers and others in this traditionally Republican District that as a republican Cooper Evans Works effectively with another perhaps better known Republican with Iowa ties, Ronald Reagan on Tuesday a number of us from the house from corn districts arranged. An appointment at the White House with senior staff and block and people from Treasury and state department talk about the program and and we made a strong pitch for the 20% and we made a strong pitch for some of the payment up from the front end. We had and we and we made a strong pitch Force doing something more on storage. And we didn't get everything we wanted but we sure got a lot of it for her part Democrat Lynn Cutler who nearly defeated Evans at 1980 is also emphasizing the close ties between Evans and President Reagan, but her pitch is that those ties are the problem. It's time my friends to (00:17:09) fight back. It is time to let Ronald Reagan and (00:17:14) Cooper Evans and (00:17:16) there are other followers know that we're wise to them. If we don't send a hard clear message in these house Races, they will ride to Victory on the wave of the 82 elections and the national agenda of this nation will be unrecognizable to those of you who grew up in this country (00:17:37) Cutler's making the same speech to all three of the major voting groups in this District unemployed Factory workers college students and farm in rural residents. It's generally accepted that Cutler has the support of the workers in the students while Evan Polls give him the farm vote five to one but Evans figures may be overly optimistic because when you talk to the farmers out in the field, they are anything but solid supporters, at least let it go that that there are you didn't vote for it. You ain't you ain't going to do anything not only for us. I mean, you didn't even vote for the state of Iowa certainly know that we have the one alternative we have good or bad is we have the alternative to go and (00:18:30) vote again for (00:18:31) Sunday out. Yeah negative and she this person maybe not any better than one that's in there. But that's basically the only right we have and I am maybe I'm naive but I still think that maybe government hasn't failed us. We failed government damn few hours even going vote, and if not people would go and say look we're tired of you. We're tired of your lies. We're going What you are going to vote somebody else in if enough of us would begin to do that, maybe somewhere in the future. Those people would start listening a little closer to what the American people out here is trying to tell farmers are cynical this year. And even this Evans supporter is ensure that his vote will do any good what has any politician in the last 15 years done for the farmer. They'll all get out here and make promises. We're a very small voice. This contest is likely to be decided by two factors first will a large enough number of the students and workers supporting Democrat Lynn Cutler go to the polls second can Republican Cooper Evans hold onto the farm and Rural vote that got him elected in 1980 at this point. No one here is willing to guess at an answer to either of those questions. For National Public Radio. I'm Morgan lions at Iowa City Iowa. (00:19:46) Well, let's start here by trying to guess at the answers to some of those questions and mr. Lyons didn't want to let's try the question of can the Republicans hold the farm in rural vote in a situation like Evans is in in, (00:20:00) Iowa. Well, of course, this is one of the true test of the 1982 election Republicans have normally run better with Farmers even in times when the farm economy has not been so good. This is a real test this year because of course the farm economy is depressed even more than we've seen it in any recent time every loss of a vote in a farm District usually means a really a loss of two votes for a republican candidate because normally the Republican gets that boat to see it vote Democratic now is a lot worse than seeing in urban districts people who vote normally Democratic just turn out and do so, so it's a very important and crucial matter the Republicans nationally as a party really have to do well in the middle west in order to do well nationally and if they are now in the process of losing the farm vote this year, that doesn't look good for the future (00:20:54) Bob (00:20:55) Squire in the past that the problem has been for the Democrats that the farmers felt that by voting Republican wouldn't cost them the farm. And I preferred that this year it's going to cost on the farm. I mean, I think there are literally farmers in Iowa and states in the midwest that I've talked in the last two weeks that are very worried about their own Farm in the Farms of their neighbors their like the unemployed. I think those Farmers have nothing else to do on Election Day, but to send messages just as 10 percent of the population in this country has nothing else to do but go and vote on that day. And I think that's a good news for (00:21:26) Democrats. Why was I was startled to see the figures of the number of people who voted in northern Minnesota the percentage of people who voted in northern Minnesota in the Democratic primary and and so were some of the Republican candidates who are running Statewide in Minnesota if they have a something like a 70 percent turnout in some in some areas because possibly those people were not exactly doing anything else on a Tuesday koki. What do you what do you what is your feeling? Do you think that that farmers will just make a positive step and go out and vote and vote? Craddock or would they just stay home or stick with it? I'm not seeing a great move to the Democrats on the part of farmers or much anybody else except for minority groups and women. I think that that the farmers are basically saying that they don't like the way things are but the ones I've talked to are saying but nobody's done any good and I think we get back to that problem that we keep coming back to in this 82 year of the democratic alternative that in the absence of any kind of alternative that you not seen people say, well I'm going to go Democratic at the Democrats of the people for me that it comes down to more sort of individual races and individual states and individual congressional districts and a lot of frustration with politics and politicians in general and not parties in particular, but I think it is a fact of life that if you count the House and Senate at the present the way they presently constituted you don't see the votes for big. Any programs to bail out the farmers? I mean that they're just not there and I don't I don't I could get a lot more serious before that would happen. It's would seem to me to be a self-interested vote for the farmers to change that ratio. Been John (00:23:17) Sears. The farmers historically have really shown less interest in Big Money programs, even in times when their own circumstances were at risk and really I don't think that's the point. Now the matter that coca mentioned is a real thing Farmers don't really feel that the really the cure for their problem is to resort to a big government program or a series of them and this is causing them to linger a little longer given their dire circumstances in terms of deciding which way to vote. This fall The crucial issue here really is whether circumstances will be so bad that farmers will vote Democratic this fall even though they they really don't see an alternative that they like in the Democratic party or whether they really can be persuaded in the end is the Duration is trying to do with to stick with the administration a while longer and really try a less governmental oriented solution to their program (00:24:11) Roberts choir. (00:24:12) I think one of the things that farmers are upset about is the fact that they believe that food is being used as a weapon and yet they don't have a sufficient voice in that process. They're kind of the to love this their own state department, but they're not being dealt with by other parts of the government in a way that makes them feel that they're dealing with they're being dealt with in a fair fashion. So I think they're open to the Democrats fairness argument in a way they've never been in the past (00:24:37) the the other question, of course in rural districts as it is, in other areas are those people who are unemployed as a result of the farm economy slumping the unemployed workers in Waterloo, Iowa, for example, the quad cities in Illinois where they're all those farm equipment companies that are going broke and laying off workers. What happens to those people do those people? Where do they see their interests? (00:25:02) Of course, that's where the unemployed are coming from over half of the the people that work in this country work in small businesses and the small businesses are the ones that are going under now and that's where a good many of these unemployed people are coming from. (00:25:14) Where's this this argument of the administration to stay the course is might be a little bit risky. It's caused a lot of opportunity for jokes, you know, Teddy Kennedy said the other day that the American people should tell the administration that they have flunked the course and George Mitchell and Main is is answering that ad by telling people a story about someone who asked a main farmer how he got to Biddeford and the farmer said well, if you keep going the way you're going it's about 25,000 miles from here and and Mitchell says that's what happens if we stay the course, it's the wrong direction. I think that maybe there is an argument that people will hear about (00:25:58) that. I maintain that stay the course with the last words of the cap. Titanic (00:26:05) II do think though that there is a this question of staying the course when things when things do get bad, I think that there is a kind of natural tendency on the part of the electorate as a whole to correct. You see it you see it when when there's been a landslide One Direction. There's a pool back the other way just just just to sort of modify the course possibly or check the course a little bit and I wonder if that if that won't happen. (00:26:33) Yeah, I think that's another thing. We will know the answer to on Election Day here off-year elections historically again have been the occasion for the voters to sort of remind the people in power that maybe they ought to proceed a little more carefully and really this election will be read in terms of its results for as to how much of a warning it gave this Administration. I just like to add one other thing very quickly, you know, we often forget what have been really strong issues previously won a little while earlier. This year was the fact that As felt in all quarters than interest rates if they were to come down would really present the administration with a much better picture this fall now they have come down and come down rather considerably but politically speaking it's done the administration no good because with these other factors we see that the fact the interest rates are down gives us no help here with on the Republican side for the fall. (00:27:25) Thank you very much. John Sears served as President Reagan's campaign manager and thank you to Robert Squire of political consultant for Democratic candidates. We had help on the program tonight from Member station WSU. I in Iowa City and kosc in Los Angeles. Our producer is Frank fitzmorris, the editor Mark Rosenbaum Richard Firestone directed this program with technical assistance from Sam a corita next week women as a factor in election 82 their more politically organized than they've ever been in polls are showing their thinking differently from Men on many issues. Join us as we discuss how that may affect the results of the November elections with Cokie Roberts, I'm Linda wertheimer in (00:28:04) Washington support for this program comes from the NPR news and information fund contributors include the Corporation for Public Broadcasting for historical reporting the Pew Memorial trust RKO General radio and television Broadcasting Company and the communications workers of America representing 650,000 members Nationwide in telecommunications and other fields. This program is a production of national public radio, which is solely responsible for its content. This is NPR National Public Radio.