But I have to talk about today is very difficult subject very difficult topics, very emotional topic. The Middle East in general and they run in particular. is so difficult to comprehend because as I sometimes point out, it's it's like trying to view a shattering Mosaic through a shaking kaleidoscope. It's an emotional issue. We all have very strong feelings about this. The American people I think have been faced with one foreign policy mistake one foreign policy blunder after another. The phrase I keep hearing around the country is were fed up with it was sick and tired of it. and for good reason now the issue of Iran is the issue about which all of this has crystallized. Difficult enough, I think to do understand Iran have ejected Lee. But we have a crying need it is in our national interest in our deep National interest in the interest of the Americans in Iran today. To make a special effort to try and understand the roots the causes the future of this problem. In short we cannot afford to be uninformed any longer. Those of you who are in the business school or in business, if you are negotiating with someone on a big business deal, you make it a point to understand who you're dealing with, you know yourself, but you may not know the other individual. First thing to do is try and understand that other individual. I asked you if you'd please bear with me today some of the things that I say you will not agree with some of the things that I say. You may be very upset to hear. What I'm going to try and ask you to do this afternoon is to make an effort to take a fresh. Look at this. I invite your questions your comments your criticisms afterwards. Feel free to ask me for evidence for documentation for anything that I say that you may face a difficult find very difficult to accept. Let me conclude my introduction here by making one final point in terms of the American hostages. I know three of the individuals personally. Two of them are close personal friends of mine one in particular has been a friend of mine for 15 years. I would also point out to you that I also know two members of the Revolutionary Council. Anna Runyan side So I feel in a sense that I'm standing in the middle on this one. And when I make the point that I feel I have to make I would ask you to please keep this in mind. First of all briefly. Let's take a look at the Iranian Revolution. I considered Iranian Revolution and the continuing effects of this revolution. To be perhaps the third major International Watershed of this century. These have occurred roughly 30 year intervals, the two world wars and now the Iranian Revolution. Instead of the Iranian Revolution to be a much more. Significant event in the Vietnam War for example or number the other instances and incidences that have occurred that you are well aware of. I'll tell you why. first of all, the Iranian Revolution stands unique in world history It was a truly National Uprising whether we liked it or not. We had a population largely unarmed rise and revolt against a powerful king a king or a Shah as we know in buttress by modern military shield and supported by all the outside powers in the world including the Soviet Union and China not just the United States. On top of this this revolution took place in a country of enormous International significance. Iran is not some pineapple Republic. It is not older humble. I cast on Iran is a critical country at the center of the world stage 75 billion barrels of proven petroleum. That's three times with Mexico has terms of proven reserves of petroleum alone. 10% of the world's Reserves throughout the 1970s Iran was the world's second largest oil exporter. Iran is the world's second largest natural gas repository. Iran has more natural gas than all the rest of the OPEC countries put together after the Soviet Union. It is number two. This other resources that well as well including very rich copper deposits. oil revenues of about 25 billion dollars a year and something that you very seldom read about Iran was the single largest export market for the industrial World among the developing nations. Just before the Revolution in 1978. For example, Iran imported over 13 billion dollars from the seven largest industrial Nations. As you can see from my favorite map on my left ear Iran is the Green Country you run? The Green Country shows a 1600 mile border with the Soviet Union. It has the third largest population in the Middle East now rapidly approaching 40 million citizens. It is at the crossroads of civilization and at the crossroads of political social and economic power. And when you put it within its Middle Eastern context Iran becomes even more significant on the world stage. And I do find the Middle East as the 18 countries. You do not see Morocco here, but the 18 countries for Morocco on the west across North Africa up through the Fertile Crescent in the Northern Tier countries of turkey Iran Afghanistan and Pakistan 350 million people 6 million square miles of land. the new international Heartland the Middle East is and will be the new international Heartland 75% of the non-communist world's reserves of petroleum are located in this part of the world. Saudi Arabia itself has one fourth of the world's proven reserves five times out of the United States twice that of the Soviet Union in the Middle East has much more besides. I will not take the time to go into it, but just point out that we're dealing here with perhaps now. a new Renaissance of power in this region and my prediction is that the Middle East will become the new fulcrum of the International System. Now if that's the case, what do we know about this region? What do we know about the Middle East? What are we know about these peoples? We know about their culture. What do we know about the religion? Newsweek few months ago had an article in which it said the following icourt Newsweek something. I very rarely do by the way, but in this case, I think they agree with me so they're worth quoting. Quote no part of the world is more important to our own well-being at the moment quote. No part of the world is more hopelessly and systematically and stubbornly misunderstood by us. I think it's a gross understatement to point out that America and Iran are not communicating. Neither side seems to understand. the other I think this is a great. It's an unconscionable tragedy for both sides. Perhaps one of the few positive things that we can say about the Shah's rule is that his regime perhaps his regime better understood the moods and workings of the American system. What about our own understanding of Iran? What do we really know about this country of a nation that we have been deeply involved with since World War II of a nation that we sold 9 1/2 billion dollars worth of the most sophisticated military equipment during the first four years of this decade alone of a nation that we arrested our national security on I'll tell you what we know about Iran even today even though you poop your turn on your television set. We know very little. Many Americans cannot distinguish Iran from The Rock. I know that Iran and Persia or one of the same country former President Ford in the speech in April of this year for to close friend and admirer of the former Shaw gave a speech at the Air Force Academy and when she identified Iran as an Arab country, this is a president former president of the United States. The current president of the United States couldn't even pronounce the name of the country. It's I ran you ran here and she ran. Equivalent to Calling America Enrique Enrique this and Enrique that it doesn't bother us but it does not go unnoticed in the World At Large news week of December 24th, which I just quoted to you did a page spread of Ayatollah shariatmadari along with a large picture of the Ayatollah. Unfortunately, the picture was of another Ayatollah Ayatollah taleghani who's been dead since September 10th. Until 15 months ago only a handful of Americans ever heard the word word Ayatollah. And in September of 1978 for months before the show off fail, the defense intelligence agency predicted that the Shah and I quote the defense intelligence agency quoted quote them. The shaw is expected to remain actively in power over the next 10 years on quote. What about Iranian Iranians today? Most Americans view the country as a nation of religious maniacs. medieval Fanatics blackmailing Cutthroats irrational hoodlums violin and emotional mobs In our own misunderstanding in our own frustration, we strike out it at them in our own country. We curse them. We stab them we refuse them service. We fire them from their jobs. We arrest them in jail them for jaywalking. We attacked their homes and apartments. We Deport them. Maybe they deserve all this. Then again, maybe they don't. Perhaps we have stereotyped a nation on the basis of the Outrageous Acts of a small number of militants in Tehran. For the first time in many years. I've seen a new word creep into our vocabulary and that new word is uncivilized. Who are the Iranians uncivilized? I think not a nation with a Heritage that goes back to the days Cyrus the Great Darius there season nation unrivaled in arts and crafts in that part of the world of Exquisite architecture. nation of poets and literature a nation that boast persepolis considering the situation of our fellow Americans in Tehran The hostages held hostage in Tehran the following generalization that I'm going to make May strike you as being some kind of a sick joke by sure you I'm not joking. It's more of a sad irony and a sick joke. Iranians are certainly as a nation as a people. I mean most hospitable and polite peoples of the world those of you who have lived in Iran, and I know a number of you have those of you who know Iranians. Will agree with me. I'm sure the heart of the Persian vocabulary contains Expressions as the Iran Hashanah deed Welcome to our country, please please please come in enter. My home men's element molecule must my house is your house and make mine had me baffled eyes guest very special in the eyes of God. 1950 Farmers Supreme Court Justice Douglas Justice of the United States Supreme Court for 36 years and he came back and he wrote a book. It concluded that book with the following quotation quote. Iran has a Fascination that is difficult to describe an appeal. That isn't as indefinable as the plaintiff music in our spoken word Iran chose the best. of hospitality Persians are spiritually close kin to America's unquote. The closest thing I have seen anywhere to Midwestern hospitality. Having grown up with small Midwestern town. There was always room for the gas for the outside or die table. But another plate on the table could bring home all the friends. We wanted Iranians exactly like that next to Midwestern Hospitality Persian Hospitality comes second and not a far second. Let me tell you something Bill we midwesterners. Don't take hostages. What kind of hospitality is that? We don't take medicine people hostage. That's true. I want to discuss with you very briefly about that. Is that not all Iranians have taken innocent Americans hostage? We have occasionally made mistakes and we have ugly incidents in our own country and finally and most importantly what led a band of militant students and they are students despite what the Press says what led them to do. That's what led them to take this kind of action. Iranians have survived invasions and on slots from the outside for centuries. I've never lost their independence. No, don't be running so long been critical of the United States. Especially in primarily United States government and its policy. They have liked and admired America and Americans during the Iranian Revolution during the 12 months between January of 1978 and January of 1979 a hundred thousand Iranians were shot down in the street to their country. The beginning of that time there were roughly 50,000 Americans in that country during that violent year of Bloodshed only three Americans died and virtually. None were attacked or detained. The real tragedy here is that the people of Iran and the people of the United States are natural allies? we need to run your on needs us to What are the difficulties we've had? Is trying to understand Islam. Unfamiliarity with Islam don't have time to go into a long presentation on Islam now or to analyze Islam for you except to say this. three-quarters of a billion people in this world practice Islam 750 million people one of the world's great monotheistic religions is growing at a rate greater and faster than any other religion in the world was born in the 7th century. Came out of the Arabian Peninsula the seventh century after Christ bubbled out of the Arabian Peninsula and spread like wildfire across North Africa up into Spain defeated the gigantic Persian Empire moved up into what is today Soviet Central Asia and then movies as far east as Korea and Japan until within a hundred and fifty years after the birth of Muhammad. Islamic civilization was larger than the Roman Empire was in its heyday. Islam borrowed heavily from Christianity and Judaism Both Christians and Jews have a very special place in Islam. Islamic civilization is in fact an ancient civilized and cultured civilization example when Europe was overrun by the vandals and the Goths during its Dark Ages between the 9th and 12th centuries. The torch of civilization was held at that time torture civilization was held by the Islamic world the Arabs in the Persian from their capitals at that time in Baghdad and the and Damascus. I guess this Rich Heritage of learning and progress middle easterners now and especially Iranians are coming to the Best Western schools that we have that going to Stanford, Minnesota, Princeton, Michigan Berkley now getting the best modern education that we can give them. This is part of the Renaissance of the area to which I early reefer and whatever else you think about how many Khomeini has captured the imagination? of large numbers of people in this world all the way from Yugoslavia on the west Two sections of China and Korea and even Japan on the East let me give you an example. You may not be aware of Yugoslavia has a population of 3 and 1/2 million Muslims 2 million of them are located in the province of Bosnia and Herzegovina and this particular Province. There has been a Renaissance. That is worried the Communist leadership and Yugoslavia. No end the two leading muftis of Belgrade have been investigated an accused of Khomeini ideology. The president Tito himself recently made a visit to this province because of the great concern in Egypt a couple of religious leaders. They are Sheikh Abdul Hamid kishk for example has been spreading home any ideas and ideology there. Islam in short is alive and vibrant and probably from our point of view the American point of view. There's one other very important fact. That is it is anti-communist. the violent and bloody clashes it going on in Afghanistan today gives you a good example of what I'm talking about. You look at your television screens and you see how many ranting and raving you see these people burning the American flag your views on Islam understandably are what kind of people what kind of religion is that? Why while in neighboring Afghanistan the Muslims are the ones that are fighting the Marxist government? The Russians have invaded Afghanistan and they are going to be hurt in Afghanistan. When you have Rebels Muslim rebels fighting communism in Afghanistan. Get an idea the strength of their commitment these Fighters we have guests would call them Freedom Fighters strap grenades out of their bodies. Pull the pins and jump on Russian tanks. They will do anything in Afghanistan to handle the Russians. They're not big enough. They're not strong enough to do it. The Russian can occupy Afghanistan, but there are allies there. Pretended to forget that till very recently. Let me make a couple further points about about the hostage situation in to say a little bit more about the revolution in Iran in order to understand. What is going on in Iran. Today is necessary to look at two things first the Shah of Iran and secondly the revolution itself. During the Shah's rule Iranian Society could be best like into a pressure cooker. The Shah and his military leaders sat on the lid of this pressure cooker. While at the same time did I did States sat down on the shoulders of the shop to keep the lid on tight? Give me an idea what was going on with in that pressure-cooker. You had a gap between the rich and the poor. That was one of the largest gaps in the world. Perhaps best exemplified in 1971 when the Shah celebrated 2500 years of monarchy by spending over a hundred million dollars to import International dignitaries for a royal party at persepolis. And while the food for the feast was prepared by Maxim's of Paris that same year saw a severe famine in the provinces of sistan and baluchestan where many Iranians in fact starve to death. This is only part of what was going on in this pressure cooker. The ingredients for well-seasoned by the spices of corruption seed right out from the very center of the system and then in late 1971 and early 1972 the shot turn security matters over to a secret police and they briefly put they went berserk. Torturer became a common method of political control large numbers of Iranians were arrested of salted whipped roasted and killed. The Revolution was inevitable inevitable. The scars from what went before we're bound to be deep scars and found to be lasting scars. No one associated with the old regime could expect to escape the wrath that have been building with in this pressure cooker for years. That's so easy. And that kind of a situation to let bygones be bygones. Iranians today ask quote. Where was the international community's concern for human rights and international law that Why the increased American support for such a regime? Where were the New York Times The Washington Post NBC television and all the rest of those days. The most Americans can I tune in to what I've just said most of you say while at all went before nowadays the Shah's looking good whatever went before we've got problems now, that's no way to treat our hostages. No, excuse for what happened to innocent Americans. It's all true. What happened was the Shah of Iran was a colossal political failure and its policies are responsible for the absence of any effective political institutions in the country today the Famine of leadership in many key areas of that country the problems that they have with their ethnic and tribal separatist movements the collapse of a very flashy economy, but a flimsy you kind of me and also and most importantly in terms of the situation we face as Americans today the radicalization and extremism that if marked many aspects of Iranian politics since the revolution When the ingredients the Shah had stirred and bottled up in the pressure cooker finally exploded fourth or subsequent damage could only be serious and extensive United States cannot help but get burned bit by the blast. The revolution itself. I was in Iran during the middle of the Iranian Revolution. It wasn't a very pleasant to Revolutions are never very pleasant in the aftermath of revolutions are never very pleasant. short dread of population Rise with his bare hands and overthrow the regime back by huge modern military apparatus. 100000 people shot down September 8th, 1978 passage troops opened fire and two large crowds of unarmed demonstrators the casualties were in the thousands so many that they had to bring him bulldozers with front loaders to scoop up all the bodies and load them into dump trucks. Just as one cannot comprehend events in Iran today without an understanding of the Shah's rule. So too. I think we must understand the intensity of the emotion in the violence of the Revolution itself. What about us? What about Americans? What about the United States in all of this? I think we've made some mistakes. We don't we're tired. Of course. We Americans are tired of people pointing fingers at us and blaming everything on us and I share that feeling. feel frustrated Byron ability to handle problems like this. The same time I think we need to understand because it is in our national interest to understand how we get ourselves into situations like this and most importantly but most of you are concerned about what can we do about it? It is certainly not in our national interest to drive around into the Soviet bear hug. Is it? Seems to me it is in our national interest to recapture the former mutual respect that existed between the people of Iran and the people of America. Couple problems. We've had number one America. Never knew Iran. I don't have the time to go into it with pointed up an American ever knew we were on. Number to despite with Henry Kissinger says the United States did support the show right up to the end. The only thing we did not do for him with sending American troops. 3 After the Revolution the United States made the mistake of trying to isolate the religious leaders and to support a small group of Western educated moderates who did not have support among the masses of the people. Batman that we had a tendency in Iran to support losers the biggest one being a shot followed by Bach TR and all the way down the list. Hopefully it was a mistake to admit the Shah into the United States. I'm well aware of all the arguments strong battle went on in Washington for months about this and finally the Shah's friends one and he was admitted. We're concerned about about compassion and human rights. They were ways to Shaw could have been taken care of it all the money in the world at his disposal. Let me say something about the hostage situation because that's what good number if you are thinking about your two general directions from which to attack the problem. Physical force or military action act tough quickly on the one hand or some kind of imaginative diplomacy on the other hand. That is to open up unorthodox channels of communication from the beginning with the right people. Obviously if there's no communication there could be a little progress towards a solution. Instead the administration followed a wavering wobbling waffling kind of path. It was the president of the United States insisted on talking tough. The backing this with a few dramatic, but futile symbolic moves. Meanwhile. Meanwhile, we personalize the conflict and made it here one Runner hero of Ayatollah Khomeini. I'm so doing. We managed somehow to clog up the meaningful channels of communication which may have stood a chance of getting through to the Iranians on the other hand did ministration I said, I feel did show a great deal of why is restraint and nuts is coming to the temptation as some of my friends in the Pentagon put it to hit Iran going to hit him. Why because America military action would be disastrous for any number of reasons not the least being the almost certain death of our fellow Americans in Taylor. I can assure you that many in the Pentagon I share this particular point of view. But what about the Soviet Union in all this? How can we talk about this without talking about great power politics one Pentagon official? Who in that is in a tiny minority? I might add as indicated to me that you know, he said Jim we can make we can make a run look like a parking lot in about 3 hours. Turn that place into a parking lot. That's true. We could do it. We have two carrier. Task groups out there now 21 ships those of you who know anything at all about the military realize that's a that's a lot. Can make a parking lot out of it two points about the parking lot Theory though. What is you're going to have to kill every last living ant that's crawling around down there in that parking lot? Secondly who's going to park their cars there afterwards? You can bet that some of them would be made in Russia. Look at the map. The run is a 1600 mile border with Russia similar to our border with Mexico. We have a 1900 mile border with Mexico. Let the Russians come over here and try and get Mexico still will do to him. Show me some been waiting for centuries for the chance to get their warm water ports. They like America to attack Iran are positioning themselves now. What if I should decide to make a right turn out of Afghanistan as they move down? I'm waiting for the opportunity. Find me a military move by the United States. But of course alienate almost all of the Middle East and the third world whether you agree with it or not, rightly or wrongly. Your question then and let me phrase perhaps the final important question would be well, okay, I buy some of what you say seems to be some sense in what this guy is saying what can be done. What are our options in this situation? well longer time goes by fewer the options become there aren't many of them to be sure. But I don't believe we've exhausted the options. How about some unorthodox diplomacy? How about opening up some Sirius channels of communication privately rather than publicly. How about laying off the public attacks for a while? How about bringing up hodding Carter? I'm done McHenry and the others up short just a bit, but just a couple weeks, and he wants to continue to yell and scream. Let him do it. How about sending some kind of unofficial mission of negotiators who are known and respected in the Run. How about sending some Americans to do know some of the religious leaders who speak the language? How about giving them a few small chips to play? And sending them over there and see what will happen. It's risky sure. What are the alternatives? Alternatives as far as I'm concerned a Grimm recipes for disaster. The sad fact about the handling of this hostage incident is that those making the decisions in Washington are tiny closed group? None of the members of which have any Iranian expertise? What's the weather? A longtime Foreign Service Officer said to me 2 weeks ago and I called him. He said The more serious the international crisis the last text expertise that has brought to bear on it. This is because of the high level and which it is handled. In the end we Americans must remember that the Middle East the new international Heartland is of critical significance to our country to our national interest. We must also remember that the Middle East is in the backyard of the Soviet Union. My feeling is that the best way to confront the problems there is to informally are our Ally ourselves with them. And in order to do this, we're going to have to improve our relations with the countries of the area. And in order to do this, we're going to have to make some serious attempt to understand these people their cultures their religions and their civilizations to refer to the middle easterners is Desert Rats and camel jockeys camel jockey is a phrase we use down in Texas now an awful lot 12 Century Fanatics and blackmailing are labs and all the rest. The best way I can think of to hurt America the further the interests of the Soviets and others who covet the growing wealth and power and increasingly marked the Middle East this kind of understanding will not come easy. There is much to disapprove of you all know what that is much that is alien to our own system and much that that seems impossible to comprehend. Also, we are working against our own mass media have outdone themselves and distorting the realities of the Middle East. This is especially true of the big Eastern newspapers in and networks. Nyan however, we have no choice in the end. We have to make the effort was try to tune in more objectively to these peoples the well-being. And probably even the survival of our way of life and our interests are at stake in this rapidly shrinking world. The peoples of the world Community need one another that includes Americans and Iranians as Justice Douglas said quote. We are closed spiritual kin to one another. Middle East is the birthplace of civilization. Let's not help it become the graveyard of civilization. Thank you very much.