On a morning like this. I obviously can't make fun of the weather because we're talking about solar energy solar energy does include wind it includes harnessing the renewable recycled energy that's available from the Sun in Falling Rain. I have never seen anybody refer to a snow turbine. So for the next few months, I think we have to look at resources that are available to us in biomass and other words the trees were growing this year and some of you will be eating your homes with wood in direct solar energy, which is coming down and we'll be coming down during our coldest months in abundance and in wind energy. I will not go in great detail into the technology today rather. I propose to make myself a partially a prophet of Doom it's easy. Also a desperate Optimist that comes naturally and try to give you some of the indications of Hawaii. It's so urgent that we make changes and make them know,We really have one of these rare Crossroads kind of opportunities available to us between now and the end of this Century any decision. We don't make between now and the end of the century. We will not be able to make in the same way that we can make it now if we wait now first of all, let's let's examine the nature of the crisis the crisis that we see right now is not a crisis of shortage today and many of you are aware of that in this country. It is not a crisis a shortage. I do intend to look a little bit at the macro economics of our decisions. And for example, the best way I can get into saying do we have a crisis right now is to think of what I have heard on the radio or seen in the television news within the last 24 hours by the way tomorrow. If I give the speech I will pick up a newspaper and I will give new examples there in the paper every day.Let's see yesterday. It was announced that our net shortfall in balance of payments in September set a new record 2.8 billion dollars negative balance of payments because we set an all-time record for the amount of money that we spend for imported oil in one month. That was yesterday yesterday. The Chrysler Corporation announced that it now has the pleasure of setting a new record and boy, did they set it. They lost more money in one quarter than any other Corporation in the world ever lost in one year 460 point six million dollars in one quarter.Let's see. The third one I came up with is that the largest railroad closing was started by a Supreme Court decision yesterday. This is the Milwaukee Road, which will close 5,000 miles of railroads. Now, none of those sound like an energy crisis in the first place. We don't have an energy shortage at any time. We are in trouble with regard to Fuels. We by fuels we burn the fuels once and for all we get them all used up in a hurry in order to push energy around in the forms that we want to have it available at to control our environment. None of us are really hooked on natural gas. None of us are hooked on gasoline in the junkie kind of sense. I don't particularly get a kick out of drinking gasoline. For example, I like everyone else does get a kick out of being able to control the environment to go where I want to go when I want to go to live in a spacious house. That's warm when I want it warm and is cool in the summertime and so on and we use an immense amount of a very short range energy option or fuel option andDoing that. Let's look at a few of the numbers that are associated with this and this is my prophet of Doom kind of basis because I'll show you some slides in a few minutes. They will document the fact that whatever we're doing. We won't be able to do it much longer. We do not have a shortage yet. Why don't we have a shortage yet? There's a very real reason there is enough Petroleum in the world for the United States at the moment in an auction sense today. We can win the auction and we are winning the auction every time the prices go up.You're four dollars. A barrel wasn't enough. How about 40 and the spot market for oil right now is $40 a barrel. The price of oil per barrel has increased 88 times since 1972. Eighty eight to one. It's an auction process. Now in that auction process are we hurting or is the rest of the world hurting or is everybody hurting the answer is that everybody is hurting let's look a little bit at some of our concerns as concerned citizens of the world in that regard. One of the problems I said is that we are winning the auction. How are we winning it? Well, you see what we do is we ship overseas funny pieces of green paper. They're called a medium of exchange. They have no intrinsic value and our rubber dollars a little bit of trouble because people recognize that in general by now. The word medium of exchange is understood very well by the people whom we ship it. Most of them were trained in the Harvard Business School right here in Minnesota and other places, they understand supply and demand the understand price elasticity and I guarantee you that the understand the meaning of the word medium of exchange essentially. What we do is the following we go to someone who has oil and says now you don't really know very much about me, but I see I'm hung up on this stuff. I want to have more of it than I can produce myself and I have price tags on everything within my Society. They're counted in dollars. It's called are medium of exchange. If you will give me some oil. I'll give you some of these green pieces of paper and you can bring them back directly or indirectly into the United States and you can exchange them for things that do have value part of it's called exports and we boil. I mean, we've tried to sell everything but the kitchen sink and in trying to balance the rate at which were shipping out green paper part of it is also called the value of the assets in the United States in the first four years after the prices really started to bump when the organization of petroleum exporting countries OPEC examined very carefully how you manage a going-out-of-business sale from an inventory in a warehouse that has a lot of value but which isn't being made anymore. They said let's start testing our Market. Let's increase the price will watch a while and see if our customer can absorb it. And then they wait and by the way by now, they're waiting only about a month to two months and they say well, okay, they swallowed that the economy is still staggering along and lurching a little bit. But let's toss in another 10 or 12% The dollar a gallon days will be gone forever by the middle of this winter will be looking back at them wistfully as good old days. And my memory is a little longer than that. They're managing their inventory the last year before they said let's try this starting off with an embargo that was associated with minor War but in an area that has a major part of the world's oil. We had a net favorable balance of payments. In other words more exports from the United States into those Nations than imports from them including oil with the OPEC nations. Let alone with the rest of the world. We only paid in that year 1972 500 million dollars for the oil we needed from them last year. We paid forty five billion dollars. It's been going up right now at our present annual rate. It will exceed 80 billion dollars in one year back in 1972 while we paid five hundred million dollars. We sold them 800 million dollars of the goods without services and and assets as a consequence. We were doing right nicely in the first four years after the OPEC oil embargo. Our goal while the price was going up very nicely. Thank you. We paid in total 140 billion dollars. To the OPEC nations for oil we wanted to use then you can look around for other statistics to compare them with this is macroeconomics. Remember the lesson and the rubber Dollar in those same four years foreign ownership and major assets has to be reported by the way. It means either partial ownership of corporations in the like that stocks bonds and things of that sort or its ownership in real estate buildings and Downtown Minneapolis. I doubt if they're in downtown Mankato yet, but I don't know or if I'm land anything over 240 acres in foreign ownership has to be so designated in total equaled one hundred and forty billion dollars, isn't that funny? Basically on a one-to-one basis were mortgaging the future of the country piece by piece in order to continue to win the auction. We can win the auction in comparison to any other Nation on the face of the Earth because our assets Farmland buildings corporations in the like have more value by far than the assets available to any other country that wants to engage in the auction. So we will not have a shortage on that basis until the whole world and that is assuming that other nasty things don't happen. If you press the system too hard, you will not have a shortage nationally in the fuels available to us until within the whole world not enough can be produced and delivered to us to keep up with our own insatiable appetite. That's probably to the best of my estimation 1993. You can also hear people who talk about installing new capital plan to come up with energy options of the large type nuclear breeders. Just the straight nuclear plants large coal plants coal gasification the like and basically each and every one of them will agree that nothing we can start doing tomorrow will make any difference until after 1990 if we even if it's on a crash basis. So our option time available right now is becoming frightening lie short not because we have a shortage we may not have a shortage if the world economy and the rubber dollar can stand the stretches that will be occurring for at least another decade but it takes more than a decade to come up with new answers now, why is that? So in a sense? I think some of the successes of American Technology in the past are coming home to roost in terms of public perceptions of the nature of the problem and when we have to do something we put a man on the moon. At the end of the same decade that a president said we would start doing it call the Apollo program, we built and tested on an up to willing set of subjects and something called the atomic bomb in a period of only about three years the Manhattan Project an impressive very impressive demonstration of technological capability within this nation. There is a difference even if we know what we want to do. We have some tremendous Capital Investments to make in the next decade or two. That's so no matter what the options are. Basically the difference is that in the past we have been able to essentially to deliver fuel at almost no cost for delivering it natural gas originally for example was more or less the case of drilling a hole in the ground. It would come out already pressurized already clean. All you have to do is run a pipe some place and sell it the actual cost of the delivery process was measured in really pennies per million. Btu of delivered thermal energy. Oil from Saudi Arabia. Undoubtably doesn't have a delivery cost to the dock in Saudi Arabia of more than 25 cents a barrel. It has very little to do with its value. I remind you that's the cost of delivering it those days are gone. Basically anything nice in fuel a synthetic liquid fuel a solar collector on a roof a wind energy system grabbing the nice breezes that we've got outside today, even the snow turbine. If you can figure out how to invent one invariably involves making a big capital investment before you get any return on that investment at all. And that's a brand new game. Now, let's let's look at a few numbers and then I'll get you in some slides to give you some of the background so you can make your own decisions in case you don't trust mine in the 12 state region that we may seek the Mid-American solar energy complex serves. We have representatives from the state energy offices of all 12 States, we have advisory groups and each of the states and there are members in the audience here who are members of those advisory groups. And we've been working mightily for the last year or two to try to come up with a scenario and achievable goals for what fraction not all of it. We can achieve by the end of the century by using solar energy. It looks as though within this 12 States. If we really got our act together and work very hard at it. We could be delivering 26% of all of the fuel energy that we use by the end of the century if we can build up an industry between now and 1990 and then hold it at a certain level for year thereafter. What is the magnitude of the industry? And what would be the capital implications of that kind of industry? Capital implications mean that by 1990 and every year thereafter, we would have to be investing seven point six billion dollars Within These 12 States alone in new plant new equipment to bill collectors in the like to process Farm waste and the like or to install it as a part of buildings that we haven't had to do in the past very significant kind of Investments. It would mean in total something like two hundred and thirty nine thousand people directly employed in the industries associated with that by the end of this decade and continuing at that pace through the 1990s in order to achieve only really one fourth of the energy will need by the end of the century. Here are the problems that basically even if I had the blueprint and we had a national resolve all of us that we're going to do one particular thing. We're going to put windmills on a spit or whatever the case happened to be we can only build them so fast our whole industrial capacity our labor capacity our raw materials capability and so on can't do something overnight its measured in terms of the total investment nationally being comparable to the gross national product for one year. And that's the total value of all goods and services of any kind that we use right now. So I'm trying to on the one hand say nothing we can do can really make very much of a difference but before the late 1980s, but on the other hand if we don't start doing all of it within three years, we can't get there from here. I heard someone had another talk. I believe in Michigan once say I'm very optimistic about the future. I can see a future in which we live in the benign harmony with our environment. It's not going back to the caves and freezing to death on the dark. It can be a good exist. It can be a healthful existence with the environment in better shape than it's ever been and able to carry the load of homo sapiens for centuries. I'm very optimistic about the future but I don't know if we can get there and that's very much the case. That's the good news and the bad news part of what we have to face up to this winter. For example, I cannot give you any brand new Solutions other than try to find a good friend and a big sleeping bag to really solve the problems of dollar or dollar and a half per gallon heating oil. We have a governor. We have a special session of the legislature trying to come up with answers of coming up with 40 to 60 million dollars of special relief for those people who will have to otherwise make a choice between eating and eating and that's a bad choice to have to make I will also and then I'll get off the prophet of Doom thing and start becoming his optimistic because I can I'll also fearlessly forecast and I'm afraid that I'll be right check back with me next spring that some place within this region this winter. There will be some headlines. Least a few people all people disadvantaged people confuse people frustrated people who will freeze to death because they can't pay the Heat their house or something of the sort. This is not trivial. It's a very real problem. We face it now, it's not Pie in the Sky someplace in the middle of the next Century. So some of the things you'll be seeing in the next day and a half our short-term answers some of the things I'll describe in just a moment with the aid of slides are short-term answers in addition to the problem. We have promise. The promise is very real. Let me describe it in one way first. That is again looking at the economics of the system because that's where we hurt the most there is no problem with the technology. There are people who will be making presentations. We have every answer. We need to come up with renewable ways of providing all of the fuel derived energy that we now manage and we can definitely do it sometime into the beginning of the next Century. The real problem is that the overall process of making decisions the commitment of capital resources to this as opposed to other Alternatives and issues of that sort, the institutional the societal the economic issues that are related with the whole process. So let's look at some of the things that are promising when you when you measure these things correctly one is the fact that I want to mention two hundred and thirty nine thousand jobs by the year 1990 in the 12 States the none of the midcentral states that I'm referring to that could come from driving toward providing 26% of all of our fuel energy by the end of the century. There is also a multiplier any price. Hijab in a primary industry means that other people support that family unit that has the primary job provide materials with which they work provide Educational Services all the rest the typical multiplier number that's being debated right now by for example, a study of the joint economic Committee of the House and Senate of the United States was released in this June for this kind of an investment would be of the order of two point eight two one. They project that nationally the total implication would be something like 3 million jobs by the year 1990 that while not otherwise exist. If we elect to start developing alternative energy sources in a serious fashion mainstream within all of the capacity of our Industries three million jobs by the year 1990 can be very important and very significant because when I look at the year 1990 under the assumption that we continue to auction off our remaining assets for the remaining world's sources of liquid petroleum. I don't see enough Able to go around there is a tremendous difference within our economy of electing to do it ourselves with our own resources on a renewable basis and electing to take our assets and trade them off one piece at a time to continue to support our habit which while it's not exactly like a junkie in terms of our reaction. So far is no different then a heroin junkie meeting someone in an alley and discovering the price went up to double what it was yesterday if he still has things that are worth as much as is required to get his next fix he'll pay out and we're doing the same thing and we're very heavily hooked. Let me give you one number of this and I've struggled for quite a while to get quadrillions of BTUs boil down to size. Numbers that big don't mean anything to anyone not even a politician they can handle billions they say and really comprehend what nine zeros mean. There are few more people to think they can comprehend six zeros, but a quadrillion is 15 zeros 10 to the 15th BTUs beat you will raise one pound of water one degree a match will do it nicely. Thank you for careful with all the energy in it, but 10 to the 15th. We use a hundred of those quads. What does that mean? Well, typically you run around and if you've got a huge number you want to divide it by other huge numbers. The normal one is to turn things into per capita consumption. And if you do that you end up with only 350 roughly million BTUs per capita per year as the thermal equivalent of all the fuels that we consume. It is possible to derive another statistic which the Census Bureau doesn't give you directly. I mean, they'd be hit on the head if they asked at the door. How much do you weigh? And how much does the rest of your family way? What I want to know is what the not is. Well, what is the total number of capet has or heads in the United States? What is the total weight of the population United States? Because once you have that you can look at consumption in about the same fashion as we look at the consumption of food. And it turns out when you put all the numbers together that man woman and child averaged across the whole economy for all the purposes for which we use consumable fuels today. We consume our own weight and fossil fuels every two and a half days. We consume our own weight and fossil fuels average in the United States for all purposes every two and a half days. That's a higher metabolism than the Shrew or the hummingbird and will continue to do it as long as we can get it we're continuing to do it today is you know, I remind you that one of the three indicators from yesterday was that we set an all-time record for the number of dollars that we shipped overseas and return for oil coming in. We are right at the Ragged edge of importing 50% of all of the oil we consume in the United States now in 1972 the last of the good old days. We only imported 32% We really got the message when the price went up. Well, if we look at this sort of impact on our society and ask is it better to do it within our system. We don't have to look out into the next Century to see the overall impact of doing it the right way and doing it now to a large extent that huge multiplier in jobs is one that says in principle, I would rather buy a barrel of equivalent oil from someone who was willing not to use it within our American system by a large majority. Then I would do by a marginal barrel of oil on top of that already being demanded. That's the world spot price. It is about $40 a barrel right now. And for example, the very masterly study that just came out of the Harvard Business School study Energy Futures forecast last spring very early last spring when oil was only $20 a barrel that the real value of a marginal barrel of oil not consumed within the United States was probably of the order of 40 to 60 dollars again. There's that number of about 2.8 21 running along as a multiplier. Because ultimately when we talk of materials and labor or we talked with capital and labor those Capital things came from labor and if we can work within our system and we can get big multipliers by keeping all of the resource management within the system. There is a tremendous multiplier now at anything like 2.8 times $40 a barrel. There is no option that I can think of that's too expensive to develop as fast as we can do it. Every one of them is favorable in this favorable right now. That is not what the normal answers are from Bankers is not the normal answers you get from the full page ad from the utilities today and so on but we have to start measuring things differently. Let me give you another example and then I'll get into the slides to give you some good straight up numerical values to scratch on in the next two days, but after all a keynote speaker is also supposed to be can get some optimism going and saying what will happen when we learn how to do it. Right? Let's suppose I come up with or I examine. A home which may be paying today $1,000 per year to stay warm. That's a fairly modest home today a modest home today. I guess. I'm also starting to cost almost $100,000. I'm getting confused by this funny rubber dollar myself. Nonetheless. That's kind of a typical number. Let's suppose that someone comes to the person who has that home and says, I have an idea instead of building that home. Why don't you build a different kind of home which costs for example, and I'm taking an exorbitant number. It's on the high side. In other words cost $10,000 more than the $100,000 home you wanted to build But it will save half the fuel costs. Well, the guy says let's see that means I'm going to say five hundred dollars a year on a $10,000 investment. That's ridiculous. That's a 20 year payback. Only a fool would do something that doesn't pay back into two three to five years because the by then I'll sell the house. That's the conventional wisdom life cycle costing is making the assumption that you invest at the front end. You've got to write off the cost of that capital and appreciate the whole thing and equate that to the fuel you didn't burn during the time that you own the property now, let's examine and see if you really think this is right. Suppose you want to live in that house for five years and let's work with today's dollar because my crystal ball isn't big enough to say what what a dollars going to be worth five years from now today's dollars and no inflation at all boy. If that isn't a pipe dream over that five years if fuel continues to escalate and price you will have saved certainly much more than 500 dollars a year for five years. You will have saved probably twice that much five years out that forecast on my crystal ball is about as good as anybody else's on that is pretty real. So you'll save $500 in the first year a thousand dollars and fifty year adding up the ones in between play with the arithmetic yourself find your own calculator and tell me I'm wrong or at least significantly wrong and you'll find that that number is of the order of $3,700 returned out of the 10,000 you invested in five years. Let me ask you a question if you had the $10,000. Where would you put it today? Were you think you would first of all have a $3,700 return in the next five years and still have at the other end of The Five-Year something worth much more than $10,000. I didn't it didn't appreciate because the Assumption was you're going to sell a house five years out. What do you think about the first question those rare persons who can still buy houses five years old will give Will you show me the fuel bills, please? And they're going to hold those fuel bills up to a rather critical light and they by then we'll have seen the handwriting on the wall in such big letters that they will know that price is going to escalate forever. They're looking at one house which by then has fuel bills of $2,000 a year and they expect them to continue to double they look at yours in the bills around half that big do you think you can sell a house and get some return on the investment in the house if it was good workmanship like property that isn't worn out the answer is of course, you can again the answer depends entirely on how the marketplace comes to perceive energy options now in a very Broad and general sense, and then I'll walk quickly through the set of slides and then I'm going to give you a science lecture for the morning just to prove that I speak science as well as economics. Let's look a little bit more at the process of commercializing. Because there is promise and there's a process and by the way, if anybody else wants to use my speech try to find different words than problem promise and process if you're standing in front of a microphone, you have to be so very careful not to make the thing pop when you speak close to it. However, the process of commercializing has to involve Credible decisions made on the basis of good solid fact by all sorts of people who are real critical Keystone performers in commercializing anything. The federal government has never commercialized anything and never will the federal government can fund for example, a multi-state regional thing that is to participate in accelerating the process and what we have to do and we're trying to do it is to identify the normal players. It involves the skilled trades and in thought involves spec Builders and in housing developments, it involves the people plant engineers in the like an industry who make decisions as to how to use energy and use this wisely as possible in their processes as well as in heating space in the like it involves those who make the decisions that have that making money market mortgage money and remember that stuff that used to exist before the last few weeks and we'll come back with hope but the the source of capital is required. Only for homes, but also for plant Investments bonds all of the rest of it their decision makers in there who have to know how to measure the future impact of a decision made today. There are others who make decisions professional decisions in terms of how should people be given training. That's the educational process others who established codes for buildings zoning regulations with regard to whether house is facing east and west or any old Direction. They feel like whether a windmill is an eyesore or a thing of beauty and a joy forever in the like all of these people are participants in the process. That's why I'm using my time not talking of the technology of any one of them my Earnest consideration and request of you is that you examine very carefully what motivates decision makers I'll share very quickly with you my humble interpretation of the broad classes of decision-makers try to fit yourself potential customers potential adversaries into one of the three instead of peas. I can go with a Zone this We can start off with one of the strong motivators is being altruism. That's something that almost all decisions and they made in the world are made on the basis of you realize sarcasm is intended unreal fact, most people are not very altruistic. Genetically, they're pretty heavily imprinted with the fact that they have to worry about their own children and maybe grandchildren but not yours. Not somebody else's altruism is a factor. We have to be motivated by it. We have to recognize the need for worrying about our stewardship of resources. And what comes after us, there's no question that there are two others apprehension and avarice other Eyes Cold fear and greed and their strong motivators and the whole commercialization process correctly finds ways to give satisfaction to both of those think about just a couple of examples in each one and I'll go first of all to the greed because when you refer to commercialization normally the profit motive and the fact that I think I have an idea that I can turn into a business opportunity. It's a valid one. This is the way the Capital is pulled into energy options and out of making yo-yos and other assorted valuable and treasured devices apprehension fear. If you will is of two types one is your own future threat as impacted directly by the energy decisions you make it's also a good way to motivate people to get them on track in a hurry. For example, if a potential client goes to an architect and says, by the way, I want one of them their solar 80 passive homes that may SEC has been talking about they say that home should be built to only consume 20% as much fuel as they have been consuming. They save 80% and they say the plans are available right now. Do you know about it? Now you tell me the architect is going to say no so that sort of thing. He's motivated by apprehension as much as anything else you saying? I guess I have to do my homework and in all of the trades people are going back and saying I have to re-examine things. I need some updating courses in the like across the board and that's the way in which we make rapid changes in my argument was that we have to make rapid changes this part of the talk. I'll end up by saying that the board of directors of this particular corporation to a certain extent trusted by the governor's with acting as the main focus for trying to pull together. This commercialization process in accelerated for example has a Fearless goal of 40 percent saturation of the new housing market for single-family residences throughout the 12 states with solar 80 homes. In other words an 80 percent reduction in energy consumption by a combination of conservation and passive energy features to a large extent by 1985. And you want to find all of the motivators and you want to find every good audience like this audience. You can find it talk to them and encourage them to think and think fast or we won't come even close to making that sort of impact that quickly now the second part of this. Let me walk quickly through some slides. We produced in 1970 more oil in the United States than we will ever produce again in 1970. We needed to import very little we've continued to you to increase the rate at which we consume oil at the same time that our ability to produce within the United States has inexorably gone over the top and is coming down. There is no more to be found in a very real sense. If we give all sorts of incentives to produce more rapidly within the United States all were doing is taking the integrated area under that curve all of the barrels that are available between the first Barrel that we pulled out and the time when there are very few left that are worth calling a fuel they'll be too valuable to burn they'll be called petrochemicals and they'll be used for those purposes that integrated area will not increase because we pump faster all will do is for a short period of time rely Less on Imports, which are also going over the top and the best present number there. I remind you is that world capability produce will go over the top and 1993. Let's not go in any more detail into this one because you've seen and can see statistic like this before. We were funded of course to study the renewable energy alternatives for this 12 state region by the department of energy and we came out of looking at these statistics with a short form recommendation of how to solve temporarily the energy shortage in the United States. It would be to give these 12 States to Canada. The rest of the United States would have an energy Surplus. They would also starve to death, so it wasn't really used to be a good answer. Now solar day touching very quickly on the promise. We're putting most of the emphasis into that 30% that's used to control the built environment to heat it and air-conditioned it there is no question. We have study teams from 10 different study teams under contract from throughout the 12 States putting together plans for single-family residences. So far, we gave them the challenge of Designing to a specification of two-and-a-half BTU per square foot per degree day for the heating season. The average in the region actual is about 13 BTUs per square foot per degree day of built space Not only can they meet that but most of the teams are coming in with a gleam in their eye on the computers are saying that their actual numbers are around 1.6 or 1.7 BTUs per square foot per degree day. Cutting the fuel bill of those homes, in other words by a factor of five or six to one compared to an existing building that meets existing codes and there are tremendous differences to be made re-emphasizing what we're finding and what many others are finding when they look at the built space. First of all, a lot of the heat loss does occur by going through insulated surfaces that were intended to keep heat inside and cold outside or vice versa through the roof through the side walls through glass on Windows in the lag but in particular and I have I encourage all of you to look critically at this tremendous fraction of the heat losses associated with error that moves in and out and in older homes that moves in and out very freely. I can't emphasize to whom too much how important in weatherization actions. It is to start building houses. That would have a chance of floating if they were called a boat a boat builder would build a house. That would not leak. Most houses are built so that they do even worse. Most people tend to say well if you make it too tight, then you have too much humidity. And so on the inside well good grief. You don't build a bolt boat with holes in the bottom in order to let the bilge water out you pump it out and in the same sense, we have to go to controlled ventilation of our structures in this kind of a climate we have to examine codes make changes in the equipment that's used with them and so on there's a tremendous impact of that sort of decision. Yes, there are solar collectors. They're active types shown here which mount on roofs which can easily be cost-effective over the lifetime of the system. If it's a quality product installed in a quality way with good warranties and the line it can impact the fuel Bill once you've already built that tight structure that may need only one third the heat by taking half of that remaining load very easily and providing also all of the hot water used in the structure and about one-third of all the fuel used in a single family residence. For example, ultimately ends up providing the shower water in the line. These are ideal applications for solar energy. They are Vlogs the applications for burning a precious petrochemical like natural gas in order to take the chill off of error or to take the chill off of water. We're asking for a change in temperature of at most something like a hundred degrees Fahrenheit and we're burning with a flame temperature 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit in order to do it the sun can easily provide Thermal energy at that level in a very efficient fashion and by many different kinds of Technologies you can also and this is an illustration of the passive Concept in a sense start designing homes and other buildings so that they face South are purple shaded allow the sunlight to come directly into the structure into mass of the can store it inside the structure, but may also look like a masonry wall in the like and as a consequence in the sense, you're building your collector and your storage and you're living in it. This can give you a very gracious environment with very good lifetime using conventional building materials carefully designed in terms of attention to the detail in the integration of the total system. That's another example of the way a house can be built in this case built with poured concrete after it reaches the stage here that whole South face was glazed leaving Windows. You can see the windows that are present in that wall. By the way before doing it that wall was painted black. There are also a number of ducks that you can see going through the walls in each and every room that particular home which was built out in the east coast that South wall to a large extent is the storage and the solar collector for the whole building and once completed is a very attractive very gracious structure. There are many options available. We don't need a stereotype future in which all of us have to have the same answer. We have to look critically at night at why we do things as we do them and what we're trying to achieve. Solar tomorrow includes in particular looking at wind energy much more critically for electrical production for pumping water for industrial processes in the like includes in this region in particular biomass the use of farm products, for example, the goals and the basic region are to make the average Farm energy Independent by the end of the century and it should be easy in terms of the Technologies. And finally it should include some of the more exotic photovoltaic devices late in the century, which definitely work our spacecraft approved it long ago and appear to have economic advantages when developed in quantity. All of those things taken together can make for a very attractive tomorrow if we can only get there from here. I've tried to find different ways to express my frustration and indignation with the fact that I Not only was able to present a slide in 1972 showing in the handwriting on the wall, but that slide was prepared by many others who had been preparing slides like it ever since 1955. Why do we seem to take so long to really make up my mind about something individually were not motivated by altruism. It really comes down to that fundamental issue. We don't start doing things until we're convinced by either fear or greed if you will the apprehension and avarice how that there's something in it for us. We also have in this country an absolutely incredible set of checks and balances on the decision-making process in the political way in which we do business, which is all to the good we can have changes that the top of the sort that came when Nixon was a near being impeached which reviewed in Europe has as something which obviously would topple most of the economy of the United States and real fact, we didn't even have a bank holiday. We went chugging through it with no problems at all. And I finally came up with a way of describing this in a parallel or each and every one of you can think about the implications in your own way and say, is there any parallel to this at all? But remember I'm paid by the taxpayers dollar so I disclaim any intent to make those parallels myself and instead. Simply state that after midnight. I can revert to being a scientist myself and if I have insomnia I can work on my own things scientists typically like to examine some puzzle something that isn't understood but where there are a number of facts which are firm and anybody can agree on and they come up with a theory or hypothesis explaining or giving an explanation of that strange puzzling fact on the basis of all the observations and I would like just in closing here in less than five minutes to explain to you or to present to you a new theory that I developed after midnight on my own time as to why only large dinosaur bones and many of them are found in Tar Pits. Notice, I'm not generalizing. I'm not describing why Dennis ours went out of existence. I'm just saying that in tar pits, they find many skeletons of dinosaurs. There are no little dinosaurs. Now there were eggs of dinosaurs. So obviously they started small and they got big how come all of them got big before they were finally trapped in a carpet. That's the question. What are the facts on which I can base has a theory I can put together about three which may have some parallels to our modern world. You can build those yourself while I finish explaining where the dinosaurs went one of the facts. That's a very important one is the fact that dinosaurs had two brains. I ran into this when I was a child. I was holding a chicken for my father while he cut the head off like most most small children about the time he cut the head off. I got excited and drop the chicken some of you in the audience may know what happened. Then the chicken got back to its feet with good balance and charged all over the Barnyard. I mean it continued to run for quite a while before it ran down for obvious reasons that most headless chickens would suffer from ultimately but in the interim with the exception of the fact that it bounced into things a lot, it was very much able to navigate it was balanced. It was running it was flapping its wings and you say how can I do all that one? It doesn't even have a head turns out the Dinosaurs. The earlier reptiles were very much of the same vein. They have two brains. Remember this has nothing to do with our political process, but in the case of the dentist or the brain, which was up at the top of the head next to the eyes and elevated to a high position to look ahead was about the size of a pea. It had another brain back in the pelvic girdle. I rather large Brain because it was an awful lot of action down close to the ground that had to be taken care of those big massive back legs that big tail and balanced and everything of the sort and over a period of time in a developed a very good and solid way before the you to brain is to run the Beast together. Now that that fact is from complete. Here's another fact which will just about finish the job. You may all have tried the game of having somebody hold up. For example, one of my rubber dollars and drop it and try to grab it. I can do it myself because I know what I'm going to do it to people it will invariably drop about that far. And you can say why is that? Well, it turns out my eyes are here in my hand is here and it's about three feet from one of the other the general observation is that if you measure everything from a very simple flat worm up through exotic species, like octopi or octopuses and the morning. I'm not sure which it is to man the velocity of propagation of a nervous impulse through its system is always about the same. It's about 33 milliseconds for each foot that it moves or 33 feet per second. If you like it that way around now if you're a small dinosaur and you've got two brains that are separated by only a few feet you have about the same kind of agility as any other small animal Think for a moment of a dinosaur which might be a hundred feet from the top of that head way up here to another big brain down in their world action was and say what would his life be like a hundred feet times 33 milliseconds is 3.3 seconds. Now if there are no large beasties other than other sluggish dinosaurs who can on him he can still survive very nicely little things chewing on his tail, for example, the tail hurts right away and it tells a pelvic bringing about it and it tries to Shake it Off only if it's so aggravating and can't get rid of it. Is it have to send all the way to the front end 3.3 seconds later a signal saying something hurts back here what's going on which point the brain turns around the head looks and says left leg kick 3.3 seconds later aggravation goes away. It gets along pretty nicely. As long as the environment like the Barnyard is under pretty good controls of the both ends know where all the hazards are the dinosaur could Thrive very nicely but with some pretty fair parallels to where we find ourselves today. Let me examine what would happen. If you look at a dinosaur full-sized which is very proudly stomping across the nice smooth known surfaces of California not concrete like today, but nonetheless they were good surface and this big dinosaur really had his act together. I mean, he probably do 55 miles an hour big back brain was very proudly moving that two back legs in the tail was balancing that little pea brain was up ahead looking around and enjoying the scenery doing nicely. Suppose suddenly on the horizon something occurs, which has not been there in the past which is not understood by either brain and which is really a hazard. For example a sudden crack in the earth, which is got bubbling smoking black tar now that little pea-brain over-the-top start doing a lot of blinking and saying I wonder what that is takes him a while to make up his mind. He's only got one arm but small. For good measure when he finally makes up his mind that we're in trouble 3.3 seconds is required before he can send a message back to the other brain saying stop were in trouble or something black and smoking and bubbling up ahead in a crack in the ground now for good measure what happens when that big brain of the back here is a lattice is what what's that pea brain talking about? I've never heard of anything like that. I'm going to send up an ask for more verification before I stopped doing my thing. Now while that message is about halfway up the dinosaurs trying to learn how to swim and molten Tire now with that completed. Let me challenge all of us with the fact that we are in the United States without question the most capable competent massive impressive engine that the Earth has ever seen as a nation. We have more resources to work with we have more knowledge to work with mean we have more Capital Equipment to work with we have a better scientific competence to work with and we are very close to saying at the end of the century will go belly up because we can't make up our mind which way to turn while we can do. Charging the future at 55 miles an hour. Now some of you are participants in the process, you can either be part of the pea brain or even your most assuredly a part of the real action close to the ground as all of us are and I encourage you to think about a very hard for two days and keep thinking about it for the rest of your lives and on that note I stopped. Thank you.