(00:00:00) I'm rich diekman in st. Paul and today on Spectrum We examined the practice of studying the future to help us focus. Our discussion will take a look at a future study program already well in place at a large Metropolitan High School here in the Twin Cities one of that programs organizers as well. As one of its teachers have joined me in the studio this morning. We also have with us two students who have completed the course and they will offer some of their thoughts on the value of studying the future and later in this program. We'll invite listeners to call in with questions and observations all that right after we take a brief look at weather information at nine o'clock around the region st. Cloud partly cloudy and 55 fahrenheit. That's 13 Celsius in Rochester. Mostly cloudy 58 Fahrenheit 14 Celsius and in the Twin Cities at last report, mostly cloudy 54 Fahrenheit, that's 12 degrees Celsius the forecast for the Twin Cities for today variable cloudiness that forecast holds through this evening. There's a slight chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon and this evening in the Twin Cities eyes. They are expected to be in the upper 60s the sky should become clear to partly cloudy tonight in the Twin Cities with lows in the 50s than sunny and warmer on Sunday with a high in the (00:01:10) mid-70s. What (00:01:13) does the future hold for us that question has taken on a new significance in this past week as many of us have had time to think about it waiting in long lines to buy gasoline for our cars were concerned to that if the trucker strike is not settled soon grocery shelves will become bear. These are of course concerns about the future and this morning on Spectrum. We're going to talk about how some people are trying to come to grips with the future before it becomes the present in hopes that more serious crises than having to wait 45 minutes to buy gasoline can be averted with me in the studio this morning our Jon. Well, Chloe Craig Stone Berg Mark and Eric Thompson, John. Well clean Craig Stone Berg our teachers in the social studies department at Burnsville High School John. Well, Chloe and a former colleague of his Penny damn low Drew up a futuristic scores. For their school's curriculum earlier this decade they secured special grant funding for it. And it is now part of that schools regular curriculum Craig Stern Stone Berg now teaches that course and Mark Thompson now a student at the University of Minnesota was that one of the first students in the Burnsville Futures program and Eric marks younger brother has just completed the course this year. Well, I'd like to begin by talking with all of you about how the program really got its start and I guess John Welty, you're the person to talk to about that. And before I ask you to explain how you began the program how you and Penny damn low got it started. I'd like to read just a brief quote from a something that you wrote some time ago. John that has to do with it gives an outline really if some of the theory behind the futuristics program and so I'll do that right now and I'll ask you to respond to it in his book The Ascent of man burn off. She uses the metaphor of the athlete to illustrate how Are not limited to their immediate environment all the Preparatory practice required to enable the pole vaulter to clear the bar at the meat is done while the vaulter quote vaults in imagination into the future without such an anticipatory imagination. All the drudgery of long hours of practice would make little sense and would confine the athlete to the present a less than satisfying Prospect for those who have partaken of the fruits of preparation John. Well Chloe having written and and discussed and thought a great deal about the study of the future talk a little bit. If you will, please about some of the values you see in bringing a future studies program into the high school (00:03:38) level. Well many ways except it's kind of programming Prince fresh air to the teachers and students an opportunity to look a new at some of the things that are helping to minimize. It gives teachers an opportunity to revitalize some of the things that they've been learning over the years and to reapply some of those who are using novel situations and situations that affect their lives as well as Eliza students in terms of the experiences for students that gives them opportunity to study things that affect them or affect them directly and immediately in one sense and also which will affect them later on in their lives. One of the really fine experiences that we've had with this program is that we've seen all kinds of students Take A Renewed interest in what it is. They're studying whether it be students that say who have high abilities intellectual capabilities good reading levels and that kind of thing or whether its students who have experience some difficulties in the past with School curriculum. We discover for example, in one instance a student who had difficulty reading nevertheless found it very exciting to see some of the images that were being developed by such people as Buckminster Fuller a student who was able to almost intuitively understand the implication. Would you dissing dome for example, those are the types of things? I think that we have found in the curriculum experience and teaching experience that have been exciting to us and I think exciting to students (00:05:22) when you set off to Put this program together. Did you have any idea at all of where it would go in terms of where it's at today? And we talked a couple of weeks ago about the fact that at the time in the early 70s, there was a general feeling in schools that schools Without Walls of going out a lot into the community and you explained that the program at that time did a fair amount of that and that's changed some now. I wonder if you talk a little bit about that and how the program has developed over the past six or seven years. (00:05:55) Well, you mentioned earlier a penny damn low and the project was initially funded by monies from the federal government through at that time. What was called a title three program and it was a Cooperative project Burnsville High School work with the people at Ridgefield High School in be okey was instructor at Richfield. Well and linen Penny and myself sat down to talk about what it is. We should be doing in this class. We really had no firm idea as to what should be done. So we were very fortunate to have around in this community people who were able to assist us early Joseph for example, univac was brought in and served almost as a personal tutor for the three of us talking to us about the kinds of things that we should be thinking about in terms of a Futures curriculum. We talked to other people around around the state. We met with psychologists. We met with other Educators at the university college level and we were of course doing a lot of reading. Also as part of the program when you receive federal monies, you need outside agencies to help evaluate the program. So, in fact, the money is spent in the ways that supposed to be spent and we were fortunate there and having some consultant help which was experienced in establishing Futures kinds of activities. So we were at the very outset of course perplexed and wondering what it is. We should be doing but we discovered that with a lot of reading a lot of talking to a variety of people that there was something there to be studied of substance and something that we thought was helpful and beneficial to to us as well as the students and so over time we saw the evolutionary development of the program. At the time it was started there were relatively few programs in existence throughout the country at that time. Now our particular program, which was Theory and application was the only one of its kind in the country. There were however other people who were doing future studies in their curriculum work, I think for example, Bob Wilson, who is it Jefferson High School in Bloomington who had had a Futures program for a considerable length of time and the still has one and is doing a fine job, but no one was doing the kinds of things we were talking about and that was to try to move students outside of the school house into the community to work with people who perhaps in their jobs were doing the kinds of things that Futures would be doing it was sort of an on-the-job kind of training. It was an experience that we found to be mutually satisfactory to the As well as to the students and it gave the students a great deal of opportunity to maneuver about the community. Now we think that that idea still has Merit. However, as we all know has been a movement away from that kind of education to putting students more into the classroom. We discover interestingly. However, that when talking to teachers we have a process by which this program can be replicated in other school districts throughout the state that in some of those small communities. They perhaps have more easy access to adults in their communities and we discovered that though in those places. We find that the teachers and the students do involve the adults in the community people who Farmers perhaps grain elevator people City the county planners those kinds of people who would be thinking about the future those people are involved in the curriculum in those school districts. (00:09:49) I'd like to come back later on and talk about how those programs are going and The communities in Minnesota have them but I'd like to ask Greg Stone Berg who is a teacher at Burnsville High School and who has just finished teaching a year of futuristics as it's called to talk a little bit about what I would expect to find if I were a student of yours what outline briefly some of the experiences that you try to provide or make available for your students this past year. Well, I think we start with a couple of Concepts which I think are very important. And the first of those being the concept that the future is not a thing or a road that it's many Alternatives and you have to go on the basis that we can affect change can affect the future can affect the Alternatives which someday we will reach and if you begin with that premise then one begins talking about the concept of alternative Futures, which is critical to the whole concept of futuristics and We began exploring various possibilities or what are called simply scenarios for the future. Now, one of the things we will do is we will read our we will read about various scenarios. And the common phrase for that is called science fiction or speculative fiction is Robert Heinlein likes to call it. And one of the things I will focus on in my course is to have students read about various scenarios that have been constructed by writers now science fiction can be extremely useful in this capacity if you use it, I think all with a grain of salt science fiction has gotten kind of a bad rap, I think in popular literature because much of it is sort of focused on the what we call the bim's the bug-eyed monster concept that are currently very fashionable in the movies, but a lot of it is much better than that back in the 1930s a man by the name of John W Campbell began demanding that science fiction reflect some sort of possible future alternative future. And so this is not a New Concept It's just one that kind of has been hidden in the ranks of some very Avid sci-fi readers. Well this can belly and type of speculative fiction. I think portrays well for instance. They were talking about nuclear energy and the uses of nuclear energy in 1940 and people simply did not know. In fact, there's a story about Robert Heinlein wrote a story in 1943 about the possibility of an atomic bomb and when the story was published in astounding science fiction stories are the FBI showed up and wanted to know where he got the information for him and they were going to suppress it except Campbell pointed out that hey if you suppress this kind of thing, obviously, they're going to know we're onto it. Well this kind of scenario writing has can be very very useful and I think one of the things students should begin with is reading some of this a secondly they will begin writing their own scenarios. Nothing involves. I think people more than active participation in it and if you take a topic for instance the Energy crisis if you want to call it that and students can develop all kinds of Alternatives causes effects and etcetera relation to this I think can be very helpful. I that's one thing a second idea which is stressed or series of ideas, which are stressed in the course are forecasting techniques. Now in futuristics one does not predict the future among my colleagues at Burnsville High School. The course is sometimes referred to as crystal ball one and two and they'll ask questions. Like say is there going to be a gas station open tomorrow for that kind of thing, which is basically not germane to the course, but the course attempts to do is forecast the future orb, give possible Alternatives and to do that. There are all about seven various techniques that we utilize on a somewhat simplistic level, but nonetheless, I introduced them to the students and utilizing these techniques such as cross impact matrixes future wheels, these kinds of things students are able to predict or to generate some Which will help them then create some scenarios and the first part of the course, which also meets two hours a day for about a 12 week period deals basically with these two concepts the concept of alternative Futures and the types of forecast that can be generated. And then finally we would look at some of the major futurist. I divide them basically into the well, that's not my turn terminology but the terminology we use as the high-tech people the low tech people and then the appropriate technology people and the high-technology people would be people like Herman Kahn who basically forecast that technology and the will can solve most of the problems that we seem to be encompassing and then the low technology people The Meadows in the room Club of Rome people who forecast that tomorrow may not be so nice and it what we are experiencing now is just the Prelude to much more terrible things. And then finally there's EF Schumacher and his people who Forecast said hey, what we have to do is deal with things on an appropriate scale to send tractors to India for instance where they have no gasoline and small farms is simply screwy. It doesn't make any sense. What they need are steel plows a buffalo can pull and so basically we introduced them to those three. Well, as I said this takes about 12 weeks and then what we do is we come back and deal with specific issues and this year one of the issues which we dealt with on a fairly intensive basis was the energy crisis and we talked about options Alternatives forecast the fact that well for instance CM kornbluth wrote the space merchants in 1953, which talked about cities which use solar power and had taxicabs powered by bicycles. And so obviously it was a forecast of things that are happening now, but this is the kind of thing we're dealing with what were some of the some of the scenarios that students came up with in your class for the next twenty or fifty or a hundred years particularly. (00:15:54) With regard to energy. (00:15:55) Well energy was one where it seems a there. Well, I can give you some trends that the students I think and that also some writers. So one was the moving away from non-renewable fuels fossil fuels for instance and a trend towards things. Like well wind power for instance, you know is interesting. There was a an article on television yesterday and I had mentioned that we have to move towards different fuels and win was not even considered and the students seem to think that that would be a very viable alternative depending on where you live a movement towards solar power solar satellites for instance would be a very good option as far as they were concerned. But basically it was a movement away from the current fuels that we use and that our society would have to have a massive adjustment to this kind of Technology Eric Thompson. You just finished Craig Steinberg's class this Hear what what value if any did you see in studying the future for two trimesters at Burnsville High School? Well, it was a class. That really are. Opened my eyes to a lot of problems and (00:17:10) showed me. (00:17:12) Ways that we can deal with these problems and solve them or at least alleviate some of (00:17:17) the byproducts of these problems? (00:17:20) What were some of the specific things that that opened your eyes to problems at? Perhaps that you you look at something differently now than you did nine months ago. And the second try there were only 11 kids in the class and we had very open discussions in class about energy and space exploration and genetic engineering and all that. It opened my eyes a brought out a lot of things that I didn't know. Mr. Stromberg brought up quite a few points and Several facts that were quite new to me Mark Thompson Eric's older brother took the course about three or four years ago did did the some of it stay with you? Do you still make use either practical or otherwise some of the some of the things that you learned in the course? Yes. Definitely. I still keep up with the magazines with the literature in the field. They Science Museum here offer some excellent continuing programs and I found it's been very valuable in giving the point of view of perspective where I can always keep looking toward the future and also rather interdisciplinary perspective. And so I've been able to look at my future plans and channel them towards what I want the courses I'm taking at the University are geared toward an astrophysics major, which I'm hoping to take because I feel that field has a good possibility of having job openings up in outer space. Hopefully on an O'Neill Colony. You may have to explain a little bit about one of the colony is well, the Anil colony is a Well, it's another example of how futuristics prepared me when we were talking about building human habitations out in space and we spoke about genetic engineering. We talked about nuclear accidents at Power stations years before these things were happening. And so the payoff came later course few years ago talked about nuclear accidents. And yes, and so the payoffs came later and as these came up the students the alumni would look around said, yes, so we were we knew things like that could happen and we were prepared and I'm sure we'll find will continue to have events coming up that we've been discussing and futuristic sand will be prepared for them is one of the advantages of having taken a course like this the fact that (00:20:04) you are perhaps a bit less (00:20:06) surprised by events that come to pass when they actually happen definitely and if so, what's Value of that. We don't have to panic when there's a three-mile island incident. We can look at it and say these are what probably happened before the official reports come out. We know a little bit of the background of how a nuclear power station works. And we can look at the we've already discussed the effects so don't have to wonder so much will the radiation caused this we've already discussed what different levels? how they will affect the people and (00:20:45) we (00:20:48) We know about the Alternatives about what other things can happen. John well Glee (00:20:56) Mark is not an exception here. Mark is a very representative example of what we found in some of the statistical study of former students. We know that the students gain an increased degree of confidence in their understanding of what is going to happen. And what is happening as a result of that. They are not as surprised and they seem to be more able to deal then with these emerging conditions. We feel that this kind of course offers them unnecessarily a security that's based upon whim but a security that's based upon reason and some experience so that they can can discover Alternatives as Craig mentioned earlier the course emphasizes the search for alternative Futures. It is not a monolithic kind of experience but one that encourages students to consider options and the That is increased confidence. Another result seems to be although initially. They experience some pessimism they feel when they first come into the program often that well, there's no hope and if you look around a lot of the popular literature and you look at the popular press you will see some rather pessimistic scenarios being written people don't seem to have a very optimistic view about what is going to happen. But we discovered that in the students that while they have an initial pessimism after studying some of the Alternatives that their pessimism turns more to optimism because they have gained what we think is an increased amount of skill in the ability to deal with information that is in some cases contradictory or chaotically presented or confusing. So those are some of the benefits that we think we find testicle e well marks example certainly is very representative. (00:23:04) Are there some some responses? I guess I can I can here some people who are listening saying particularly Mark when you talk about an O'Neill colony of do of being very skeptical about living in space and I know I should mention at this point that I spent over an hour with the class that just finished Craig Stone Berg's course this past term and I talk to them all on tape and and we'll probably find the cassette copy of that tape early next week. And so I apologize to those people (00:23:39) who who were so (00:23:41) willing to give their time in that interview last week of the week before and I'm glad to have a couple of students with me this morning, but what kind of What kind of response do you give to people who say, you know living in space You Know listen, come on, we don't even have enough gasoline to get us through the next two or three years. You know, what how do you respond (00:24:07) to (00:24:08) someone who says be practical in this whole business? I think Looking toward the future and making those speculations thinking about one can happen is one of the most practical approaches to solving problems. Now, especially for some of the long-term problems space colonization skin colonies can be used to build satellites which can utilize solar power which can be beamed down to earth. It's a process. You can't take all your immediate problems and just solve them but you've got I've learned that you must go on to look at long-term Solutions, which will help out with your immediate problems. And it's you cut you must cover a broad (00:24:53) spectrum. (00:24:55) Looking towards the near future and towards the far future because there will come a time when it's very necessary to have that background. (00:25:04) Greg (00:25:05) Arthur Clarke who is a British scientist who's a writer of both factual and fictional material refers to it in a book. He wrote in the early sixties of profiles of the future is the lack of imagination and the lack of nerve and what he says are one of our biggest problems at least with people who say hey we must be practical is that we have a tendency to say what is practical what is practical 10 or 15 years ago and instead of looking forward where I was looking at our history to find out where we ought to go and what he claims to be the problem here is that what we have to do is we have to dream and when we dream we begin to form images of tomorrow, and basically that's what the whole program is aimed at. We choose our Alternatives by looking at a whole barrage of Alternatives. And if we narrow ourselves to the Past what we have simply done is we have chained ourselves to One path to the (00:26:04) fridge. (00:26:04) Future and he says that's wrong. And so Clark Clark has for a long time. I mean he predated most of the popular futurist by at least 20 years and this is nothing new for his kind of writing at all. And so that's one of the main I think thrust of the program again. It's the alternative Futures we choose tomorrow by what we do today as an example. For instance. One of the papers that one of my students wrote first trimester was on the department of energy and the student pointed out to the fact that the department of energy is research budget better than 70 percent of it goes towards fission nuclear power. Well, obviously that's going to dictate that one of the main thrusts in our governments energy program is going to be towards nuclear fission solar energy on the other hand has an allocation of less than 5% of the budget. Well, what we are doing is we've taken two Alternatives fission and solar energy and we've obviously said where we're going to put our marbles or our money and so if we're going to have any change in that direction, and obviously we have to do Today we can't do it in 20 years because 20 years down the road. The research will been in that one particular type of energy. That's again. We've chosen an alternative for 1990 and the students in that class will be the researchers in 5, 10 15 years from now. Well what the student did it was interesting when the students started the research paper the student had absolutely no commitment to anything the student simply was going to investigate the department of energy, but by the time the student completed his research paper, he had determined where the options were and what direction we were pursuing now and it wasn't a question of where should we go. It's obviously where we're headed and the question the policy question now has to be asked in the student did at the end of the paper. Is that where we want to go? The time is 28 minutes past 10:00 o'clock and you're listening to a discussion of Futures studies. And in the studio with me this morning are Craig Stone Berg and John well clay a couple of instructors from Burnsville High School and Mark Thompson and Eric Thompson students Mark student a graduate of Burnsville High School in Erica still a student at Burnsville. Both of whom have completed the future studies program there at this time. I'd like to open up the telephone lines and if anyone would like to call in with a question or an observation about future studies you can do so this morning by calling us. If you live in the Twin Cities, you can call us at 2 2 1 1 5 5 0 that's two two one one five five zero if you're listening outside the Twin Cities area, but in the state of Minnesota, you can call us toll-free on our wats line. That number is 1-800-695-1418 600 to 900. Zero zero and the Twin Cities area number is 2211550 and it looks to me like there is a listener on the line right now and another one lighting up. So we'll go to a listener. Good morning. You're on the air. (00:29:01) Good morning. I noticed that your speakers and talking about the future talked mostly about technology and yet it seems to me that the future will be affected as much by changes in relationships between men and women, but let me see if I can make this clear that as women form a new vision of themselves. The family will change moreover. It seems to me that the economy will also put pressures on the family so that the relationships between men and women will have to change as a single Breadwinner cannot support a family. Probably will not be able to in the in the future women having to go to work will require again changes in the way that their husbands perceive them in a way that their husbands treat them in the way that their children treat them and perceive them do the teachers prepare their students at all for that kind of future the future of the family (00:30:16) John. Well clean. Yes. I think your question or comment is a very appropriate. Yes, I think is true that on the basis of the discussion we've had here so far this morning, we talk primarily about technology and that is misleading because the program also includes covers other areas other than technology and certainly our attitudes about ourselves as individuals be we male or female attitudes that we have about each other. Also examined and those kinds of things obviously have implication to family structure to working habits to raising children to the kinds of schools that we have the kinds of Leisure Time activities that we do all of those types of things obviously have to be discussed in a good Futures program. And we think that those types of attitudes and ideas images if you will about ourselves and others are incorporated into the program. (00:31:23) Let's go to another listener now, good morning. You're on the (00:31:25) air. Yes. I am also a physics major as very interested to get it Mark was headed towards astrophysics. And that's what I'm not really my primary focus. He spoke of them O'Neill colony, which is something also I'm very interested in and I was wondering I myself would love to work on a neocon t as well, and I'll of course. We'll probably about the same age. So I assumed that we would be very close to working in something like that. If such things are built that's the real question. I would say that and I would wonder if Mark would agree with me that O'Neill colonies would probably represent a best case for the kind of economic conditions that we would be experiencing say and the 1990s or actually be of the mid-1980s from that time until the time that they were completed because it would take so long to build and I was wondering if first of all mark would believe that the conditions that we would be experiencing now and relation to the conditions that we would probably be experiencing if we keep going where we are. Would be conducive to the construction of such facilities. Also, I would say that I was wondering if you would be if you did in the course considered perhaps the worst case for the conditions that we would be experiencing which are very very pertinent this week as the salt talks were just recently concluded in the tree signed many people have doubts about (00:33:10) that Mark. Would you like to respond to that? We should mention again for people who tuned in late than an O'Neill colony and probably very simple terms oversimplifying it is a colony in space. I think so far the figures the computations about the costs. The benefits of onion Counties have been very optimistic. I think when we start building them, Will cost a lot more and they'll take longer. They definitely are possible. We do have the technology we can go ahead and build them and I believe we will but it'll be like no probably be over a longer time span that won't heal anticipate and yes, we did study some of the worst possible scenarios. I can recall some of the most eye-opening experiences in class were going through the limits to growth modeling where we actually ran the computer programs and it can be very depressing when you see how limited the resources are on Earth how many people we have are clamoring to use them all. But I feel that space counties offer a very good hope for us if we can utilize the resources of outer space and that should help out the problems on Earth. I have a quick question for you Mark and (00:34:28) I'll ask you to (00:34:31) just give us a rough idea and your own study how long you think it's going to be before people are living in such a thing is Antonio Colony. I believe that over the next three to eight years or so. We will be establishing small space colonies out in space using the space shuttle. It will probably B-52 20 years after that before we start setting up large habitations and that's just a rough forecast. Okay, thanks very much. You're listening to a discussion of the study of the future on MPR Spectrum this morning. The time is coming up on 24 minutes before 11 o'clock. And if you'd like to call us with a question or an observation about the study of the future you can do so by calling us in the Twin Cities at 221155062211550. A couple of phone lines are open now if you live outside the Twin Cities, but in the state of Minnesota call us toll-free at 1-800-669-9133. 1-800-662-2386. I think Eric Thompson has something to say one of the problems about space colonization coming might not be a so practical. It might be a psychological because I feel the psychological aspects of not yet been fully determined. I mean, you might look up and see your house above you and not the sky and I could you know, cause some problems. (00:36:05) Some people (00:36:06) so some some orientation is going to be needed. Okay, we have a number of callers now on the line and let's go to another listener. Good morning. You're on the (00:36:13) air. Good morning. (00:36:15) Go ahead with your question earlier observation. (00:36:18) Yes. I have been interested in science fiction for a long time. When you mentioned Arthur c-- Clark, I he's a British royal astronomer who has written a marvelous science fiction book childhoods end. You haven't mentioned Ray Bradbury. I have a comment to make I don't think we've done to to very well on our own planet and I think we're quite arrogant and thinking that we can do better on some other planet. In outer space if we haven't got here. I also feel that some of the students I've heard who have commented on nuclear power have sounded more like status statisticians that I don't think they sound like really human being. We'll come in. (00:37:27) Do you have any response to that? One of the problems dealing with the future studies program is that it's a lot easier to deal with Technologies numbers and statistics. They're more concrete. They're simpler to deal with in the abstractions then with social problems and with relations than with actual what's going to happen with people in society. But we do do that and I think it's necessary to have things like the space colonies to continue exploring Frontiers for the future. Okay. Let's go to another listener. Good morning. You're on the air. (00:38:08) I wonder how anyone can see a future at all unless we learn to produce for human need rather than for profit because it is not Prosper profitable now to explore solar power is more profitable to have nuclear power. And so we pollute ourselves of the face of this Earth. If we work together with the Arabs instead of the games the herbs we have enough oil for the time being and it gives us time to develop develop to develop alternative power sources. We should do away with all money and just work for the future of mankind and then we can do all sorts of things in such a long term view, then it becomes absolutely as my to do any polluting. Nobody want to do it because it would not contribute to the future of mankind. Nobody would want to go to work. We close at is a week. We spend more money on armaments and we do a nuclear power or on education its profitable for us to other nations because of our balance of payments. We have to export so we can import the oil all this becomes very clear when we start working all together for human survival. I do not I really do not see how we can do it as long as we keep our profit (00:39:34) motive your question or comment really raises a question in my mind, which I'd like to ask people in the studio here this morning and that is that how how much attention in the future studies class is paid to economics and you mentioned Craig that someone did a study of the energy Department in the economics within the department, but I'm wondering if if there is any opportunity to take a look at the economic system say of this country versus other countries or of trying to image or and new economic system one of the games we played with a world survival game where each person took a section of the world and got his food his energy and technology and his population all in a numerical values and for certain for having too much technology, you'd get World destruct fines and for having too little food Dev World destruct point so you had to have a nice tight even food a nice not real high-tech so that you have pollution problems like that and if we work together All the separate regions of the country you can overcome all these and have a Utopia or at least not a dystopia. You can solve your problems and say hey, I'll take some of your people you can take some of my tech and then you know, I won't have a to high-tech and you won't have to hire people they have enough food and everything will be you know peachy keen Greg Stone Berg. I think one of the precepts of futuristic studies is that it presupposes a holistic way of looking at the world which simply implies that we must have cooperation nationalistic rivalries in the long term. You're in the short term for that matter are destructive to a long-term future and I think one of the emphasis that we have been putting in the program is that to solve problems which are not nationalistic but our International istic is going to require cooperation and we feel that the development of things like O'Neill said Base stations or orbital power supply stations or whatever would be in the interest of a holistic long-term Cooperative solution to some of the problems that are facing people. We have some listeners on the line waiting to ask questions. So we'll go to another one right now. Good morning. You're on the air. (00:42:11) I wonder what your opinions are of the possibility of if you ever talk about suicide centers or houses to which people can go if they want to commit decides they want to end their lives and this is sort of in response. I guess to what we've been reading the paper about male Roman and his wife Jill Roman who's committed so called artistic suicide. You see this in any kind of futuristic view of the world (00:42:37) the euthanasia Center is a something you'll find in a lot of Science Fiction. We're that due to the pressures of overpopulation and Society doesn't take that much of an interest in saving people who want to die, but they just allow them to I don't see that as being very possible in the near future. (00:43:03) Go ahead (00:43:04) Eric Soylent. Green was a movie. We saw in a futuristic swear the companion of the protagonist an old guy who had lived when life was good. When everything was prosperous and fruitful just got so fed up with the dystopia. They were living in the overpopulation of pollution that he went to a euthanasia Center and he they put him in a room and they showed scenes of placid life and nice sunsets and he's flying it and they let him die. and that was One of the things that was portrayed in that movie what was their classes response to that to that film what came out in the discussion afterward? Well, it was a very real future if a lot of things don't change. Population and pollution or escalating quite badly and unless some things I do change. That type of scenario is quite likely to happen. We have about 15 minutes left in our program this morning and we still have some listeners on the line. So we'll go to another one right now. Good morning. You're on the year. (00:44:29) Hi. I have a whole bunch of questions. I've been a science fiction reader for long time and some of the Visions. I think that the writers have a very optimistic and thinking of the dispossessed Ursula look women lousy old and you know, although their gloomy at first, you know, it's the feeling that man has a way to pull out of it because of his his intelligence and his quest for knowledge and you know, the sort of stubbornness, you know, you have to rise above things by God or whatever, you know, but I have a question to ask of physics student mark because you're the closest I can get to Jerry pournelle. Okay. Jerry pournelle says that you have to Damn the Torpedoes full. Why didn't you know invest a lot of money and doing only or colonies and future Explorations this sort of thing and I think that's fine, except I find myself personally wanting to hold back on my my cost. I want to conserve my energy. Do you understand? I think that he seems to feel that conservation of energy is not all that important. What we have to do is find new ways of energy or new methods of using energy or new new energy sources, and I'm my feeling is always been that you have to conserve what you've got in order to be able to have the energy to get to where you're going. Does that make sense at all Mark (00:46:04) well through the futuristic programs are developed a little more caution, and I'm no longer. So eager to just jump right into things. I think one of the important things that I have learned is that it is necessary to study not only the primary effects of a new technology but also the secondary and the tertiary what is the effect of not only just a nuclear reactor you have that and that gives you energy and that's primary but what happens with the nuclear waste Etc. And so I would be a little more cautious and I would want to take a little more time. And also I see it as being important to develop different Alternatives space counties may not work out in which case we should be developing solar energy on earth when power tidal power things like that just in case (00:46:58) people talk about at all. Yeah. Okay, my husband and I Be self-sufficient in three years and believe me when I said that last that last bill into NSP. I'm going to just celebrate but the whole thing is that there is so much wood and that that is a renewable resource. And I you know that there seems to be a lot of people don't even think about it, but I see a Resurgence in interest in wood stoves and wood Heating units Etc (00:47:39) creaks number give some say (00:47:40) I was at a Sci-Fi convention about all two months ago and speaking at it was Lester Del Rey who's one of the more famous authors and Anthology producers in the business and he made the somewhat startling statement that he's been doing this for about 35 years now and he made the statement that it's only been in the last five or six years and he suddenly realized that technology can have an impact on social interaction and I think when you're thinking about people like Jerry pournelle, if you've read a lot of his works, I think you begin to realize that there are a lot of those people who are simply I guess you could say profits of the super high technology who feel that will solve everything and unfortunately, they don't take into consideration the everyday interaction that I think most people have to go through to survive in the (00:48:25) world John. Well clean I think you know, there's an easy tendency to fall into the notion that science can lead us out of all of these kinds of things and all of these problems we noticed when you look at the work, for example Theodore Roosevelt who raises questions about scientism and the whole methodology of Science and way of thinking of Science and so on you see a kind of reductionism if you will going on here where people are as marked as suggested earlier reduced in numbers and material objects and so on. It's important that when you are talking about the future that you bear in mind this kind of proclivity or this kind of prejudice if you will so that Alternatives alternative ways of imagining Selves as human beings are able to be developed unless you do that you easily fall into the Trap that would probably fall into here. And that is we talk primarily about technological fixes. And this may in fact be very dangerous kind of thing. So that has to be considered too. (00:49:32) Ten minutes now before 11 o'clock and we have some listeners on the line, but we also have a liner to available. So if you'd like to call us with the question for our guest this morning you can do so by calling 2211550 in the Twin Cities area. That's two two one one five five zero outside the Twin Cities but in Minnesota 1-800-662-2386 go to another caller right now. Good morning. We're listening for your question. (00:49:58) I have a question in regard to energy. But first I would like to just make a comment about a sort of pessimistic point of view that that we've heard many many times. First of all in regard to the space initial space flights and so on Space technology, and now in regard to to the space colonies, it's the same kind of attitude. I think that Columbus ran into when he was trying to sail west on the And it's the same kind of attitude that The Condemned I think it was Seward who wanted to buy Alaska and I don't think it is very profitable to have that kind of attitude. I think we have to always be looking towards the future. And what it may bring and I think most people will realize or recognize that that space technology has brought many things to our ordinary lives, you know fast food for instance and and new materials that have been formed and so on so it's not a useless activity. My question regarding energy is if our government were to spend as much money on research for wind and sun energy and solar energy as they have been spending on nuclear energy. Wouldn't we be much farther ahead and having these Alternatives available to us (00:51:47) she Eric Thompson shaking his head. Yes. Yeah, we would but the paranoia that the Pentagon has no Not a pentagon carries a bit of clout they say hey, we got to blow up the Earth, you know, 25 times not just 12 like we have so they're just going to keep putting money into arms and the like and the only time they'll ever get into a alternate energy thing is if it can be used not a blob Russia. You're going to have to explain to me a little bit about the connection between the department of energy and the Department of Defense. Well, you see one of the we developed atomic energy to get the atomic bombs. We could blow up Hitler, you know, and now Fusion Energy, maybe we can blow up Russia with that. You know, it's they've just got the one goal in mind and that's to be you know, the number one on top here, you know with the weapons in the new systems Greg Stone Berg. The popular epigram is always been that if the sun's energy could be taxed we'd have solar power tomorrow and that probably is true one must think in terms of the massive capital investment that the utilities and the government has in nuclear energy and coal and fossil fuels and obviously once the hardware for solar energy is introduced and is set up it becomes simply a almost a free system other than spot maintenance and so in that context it's a Massive he's economic disruption right there. We have about six minutes left to us this morning and we have listeners on the line. And so as we go to the next listener, I'm going to ask the remaining questioners to keep their questions or comments relatively short so we can get to as many people as possible before 11 o'clock. Good morning. We're listening for your question or comment (00:53:39) my comment is that I hear two things going on one is about technology and one is about the social fabric of our society and and the economic side to seems like there are three signs there is science and then there is politics and then there is economics and in the last few statements that were made they the panel alluded to all three in and that is the point that I can't see myself any future at all with the present political economic system or the Announcement of people working less enjoying life more as long as the social relations in society are based on exploitation you have here in this country for example capitalist class which holds back technology and for years, but for example bought every patent that lesson gas mileage, so we had a extremely energy-intensive society, which was there were huge profits in and time. And again, I've listened to the people who have called raised very similar questions, but didn't exactly hit the nail on the head and I was wondering if your listeners would agree with Karl Marx who said that that the political economic system of capitalism is in fact Doom (00:55:10) Well, it's very difficult in a Futures program not to look at fundamental assumptions about the nature of society and political qualities there in and also it's impossible not to look at some emotional responses. You can of course think in terms of conspiratorial politics, you can think in terms of rather naive Politics as well. We think that the program that provides students with an array of thought array of options which would give them opportunity to one. Look at. Let's say Marxist views of history or economics as well as capitalist views of history and economics and in in the process of exchanging ideas and examining thought that they would be able to better understand the process and in better able to function in a system that would allow them to achieve See those kinds of things that they want to achieve we have to it seems to me provide them with imagery that is alternative to the present so that they can think about what it is. They want to become that's the function. It seems to me adults need to do unfortunately in school. There's been a tendency to provide them with a conservative image one that has probably worked in the past over has worked moderately or however you think of the past future is programs allows us legitimately to open up this whole question and to in a sense as we said at the outset provide students with a little fresh air with a little Elbow Room with a little opportunity to pick and choose those kinds of things that they want to do to be to want to achieve not only for themselves, but for the rest of the humanity as well, (00:57:05) we have about two minutes left to us and we'll go to one more listener if you can keep Your question or comment very brief, please. (00:57:12) Okay, we've been talking about the present and the future that I'd like to just jump back to the past terms of the future for a minute and get your impressions of Nostradamus and some of his predictions in his writing centuries which predicts quite a bit into the future. Are any of you familiar with that? (00:57:34) Well, like I'm not familiar with the writing but I can talk a little bit about futuristic forecasting in that generally speaking futurists believe that forecasting can only be a well first of all the shorter the term of the forecast the more accurate it can be and generally speaking futurist seem to have little faith that all in forecast Beyond a 10-year period for fairly accurate ones and a 50-year 14 a very far-reaching one. And in fact, I my personal bent would be that forecasts in excess of 50 years are simply shots in the dark at predict predictions and we can always go back and look in writings of Scholars in the past and find where they were right the problem often is that we do not also remember the times that they've been wrong as well. (00:58:24) That includes Voltaire. I think he forgot them to see the French Revolution just over the hill. (00:58:31) We're out of time this morning and I want to thank John. Well, Chloe and Craig Stone Berg instructors at Burnsville High School and Mark and Eric Thompson former and current students at Burnsville who have been involved in the future studies program there. I'd also want to thank this morning Tom mirrors men who handled the phones for us this morning and the technical directors for spectrum this morning have been Mike Solomon sand and Linda Murray.