On this regional public affairs program, Dr. Richard Kagan, a Hamline University professor of History and East Asian Affairs, discusses the implications of America's recognition of China for Taiwan. He was visiting Taiwan when the when it was announced that diplomatic ties between Washington and Taipei would be cut.
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But I was there in December and I was there just about the whole month of December in with an eyewitness to the announcement of normalization. From what I observed. Is it the government reaction to this was just that the government organized and mobilized its own forces to protest normalisation attacks were made on US government facilities mainly attacks by breaking windows and throwing paint defacing pictures. But these attacks were focused only by the Americans only on the Americans by the government. The government was not really able to arouse any Mass Uprising or mass feeling against the Americans. And in fact, all of these demonstrations occurred only in the northern part of Taiwan, there were no demonstrations in the south at all. And this is because on the whole the Taiwanese and one must realize were talking now about 14 million people out of the 17 million people the Taiwanese on the whole world for normalization. They were for normalization for the reason that most feel that The government of the Republic of China the kmt or the mainlanders is there often called are basically people who came over from 45 249 1945 and 1949 to rule Taiwan for their own interests. And the reason that they rule Taiwan for their own interest is that they claim the Taiwan is part of China and the third government represents all of China now with that as a Taiwanese call it a myth broken that the cam team no longer represents all of China. They feel that there is some hope for changing that government so it will be more representative of the people of Taiwan. So it sounds to me like what you're saying is that the majority of the people on the island or not displeased to see the United States in the People's Republic come to diplomatic relations is always of course very hard to talk about the majority. If you haven't done a pole and even sometimes when you do them, you're caught totally off base, but in my conversations in taxis sending my conversations at meetings with people and I mean people from all walks of life and I did travel all over the island and I'm all of my conversations only a very very few people were against normalization of the people. I talked to were very much for it because they felt that for once and for all it recognize the reality after all many of these people in the last few years have had friends or relatives or acquaintances who have visited the mainland there are many Chinese who've come out of Taiwan come to America have American passports are Canadian or British or other Anna visited the mainland in The Last 5 Years and then they will come to Taiwan or relatives of theirs will come in Taiwan and show pictures about the mainland and people are much more aware that the mainland exist today than they were some years ago and they are very interested about it and they always say what what is so wrong about recognizing a reality. Of course the nationalists don't run all of China on the Nationalist Chinese or the kmt the political party which supports them doesn't run all of China and of course a communist-run China, maybe we don't like that but it's about time the US recognized the reality of this and now with this recognized perhaps we'll be able to have a more responsive government on Taiwan. I was going to ask you how far. That recognition goes among a group with you feels is the majority does it go as far as accepting and even the willingness perhaps to come under the eventual rule of packing or is it more of an appreciation for what's going on in the People's Republic on the mainland, but still a desire to maintain an independence question because even among those Chinese in there are many not a huge number but they are mainly the intellectuals and some of the more one would say middle-class Chinese many of them who studied abroad and come back to Taiwan that many of them. Yes do appreciate what's going on in terms of the revolution in China. But even they say that it will take at least 10 years to work through the propaganda the intense anti-communist hatred. It's been built up in the education system in time. Freddy went to even consider the merits of the government in the society on the mainland of China that in fact are there two different responses hear? What a response is for normalization of the reasons I gave that is it destroys this myth that Nashville is trying to rules all of China the feeling about the future of Taiwan is a very separate issue. And in that people are afraid that if their government isn't strong enough or if America doesn't give them enough support that are the Communists may come in may take over I thought is one fear these people on the whole are very anti-communist based on their education and but their main fear of the moment is the martial law of the campti of their own government. That is the most immediate threat and the most immediate fear for instance as soon as normalization was Announce the government suspended the Democratic elections that were in progress. These elections were to be held on the 24th of December, but they were called off immediately and in their place really organized groups of Youth and young men acting upon government orders ran around and began ripping down all the signs of the people that were critical of the kmt rule the people are running for office the government began its stage demonstrations. I mentioned before and they also demanded the people donate to the military defense they were supposed to give us so much money for some people A month's pay was taken away for other people a certain percentage of their income was taken the purposes of this were three fold one was to intimidate. The opposition was to intimidate those groups were running for political office. It were critical of the government and to tell them look when a National Emergency. If you criticize our government now, you're just allowing the country to become prey to Communism and you are a traitor of the second was to create Emergency situation a sense of patriotism to get people's minds off of the elections to get their minds off of the problems in front of them and to get them all to unite with a sense of threat of imminent Invasion from the mainland of the Third. Which wasn't talked about their by anybody but seems to have occurred was also to threaten China to threaten the mainland to make the mainland fear. What in the world is going to go on there is a government going to stoke all these people up its spending money, which it doesn't need to spend on National Defense by that. I mean the national budget is over 53% of the yearly budget and the last thing in the world I need is more money for the National Defense particularly. I take it from school children and workers in such that is this money going to go into some type of private slush fund I which will be used for gorillas like raids on the mainland. What is the money going to be used for? Where is it going? And one thing the China did for variety of reasons was it moved some of its troops out of the province directly across from the Taiwan Straits from Taiwan. That's a sign that no, we are not planning an invasion. No, we are not going to meet anything with with this at all. None the less the government in Taiwan can stirring up the idea that we have to take the mainland. Now, we have to help our brother is now our compatriots. We don't forget people over there America has sold us out and and they do this or what they did was to raise all these donations to the military defense the consequence among the people that I talked to was that there was a great deal of resentment to this in the minute or two as we have left. Some up if you can the future of the political system in in Taiwan healthy at the moment and a great deal of his support comes from the military and the secret police the if he dies relatively quickly one really is stuck with a question. If we are not going to have just another military dictatorship come in if there is a military dictatorship the economy will fall there will be unrest are there will be a promotion of more and more on Military control police control and at the same time an issue that there's not time to discuss here, but at the same time are there will be a promotion by this military dictatorship of religious movements somewhat similar to what we saw in Japan State Shintoism. There will be someone of a state Buddhism taoism Shamanism Confucianism a promoted throughout the island and attack on the socially Progressive aspects of those institutions as well as particularly of the Christian church. This is already begun. I might add I had sent us to someone hanging. Another is a rule by someone of a military Watchdog President Obama. He will have an assembly which will be organized plutocratic Lee are they will decide that Play basically I want to I mean teen Taiwan is somewhat of an independent entity but maintain the tremendous economic resources that they have there are the industrialization in these other areas, but it will still be a military a watchdog president by the liberal technocrats to unite both the wealthy mainlander is and the wealthy Taiwanese to work for a really an independent Taiwan a Taiwan which will be protected by the development of nuclear weapons. And which will have very good ties with multinational corporations, which will allow for summer forms some openings, which will I get rid of Martial law and which will try to appeal to the whole population to create a Modern Eyes almost Japan like State what they want is a Taiwan which will allow Continuously. We enter the Cosmopolitan area if the kmt abandons Taiwan. and if the very rich Taiwanese and Mainland, there's a panda that is well not setting up a plutocratic type Assembly not try to create this Cosmopolitan area like Singapore say with direct connections to The Cosmopolitan multinational economic Market International economic market system, if these people basically leave and the more one could say socially radical groups who are against the campti come to the fore then what you will do is go move to some type of IND like chili with slow democratization with slow socialization with the development of collective land ownership of more Cooperative land ownership and with some Neutral foreign policy of trying to work more closely with the mainland and maybe with certain groups in Japan the last and I think the scenario that is most unlikely at the moment and I'm giving you someone in from the most likely to the most unlikely the left scenario would be that after 5 years or 10 years direct pressures from the mainland the a military dictatorship, which I said would be the most common one will find it is economically bankrupt politically bankrupt ask for more and more squeeze politically to the secret police. In other ways on its own population and finds that there's just a huge Rebellion From Below again like Iran and this will destabilize Taiwan in the people out of their anger and resentment because I have nothing to lose will look toward the mainland. Because many of them feel that they are Chinese if they are like the Chinese on the mainland this will take at least five or ten years because of this moment unless the mainland troops but enough tickets on Pan Am or other carrier to fly to Japan and then go to Taiwan. They're just not going to get there alive. They can go in suicide rates, but there's no other way they're going to get there but we could see that he won three hundred thousand of them face to Vietnamese. I recently I'll put a poor job they did and then are they only had to travel by land but to travel across a hundred miles of water with the tremendous lack of facilities that they have. I would be nearly impossible for the next 5 years. And of course Taiwan is not going to stay still on this either they get their submarines. Are there other weapons when will have to occur will be tremendous energy at home and people inviting in the main people from the mainland. And people from the mainland coming in all the people from the mainland won't be able to come in unless there's been some preparation of that preparation is primarily going to be made in Taiwan.