What I'd like to do with you just take you on some trips in two alternative futures. Time will only permit me to take a few tunnels slices through the many Alternatives that we see already developing for the next decade and the decade to follow. I'll primarily talk about the 1980s But realize much of the impacts won't build and really impact until the 1990s as to what I'll be talkin about. I want to talk about some new developments in the world of computers and how they impact upon you and I and will touch upon their use or application in medicine and and in the Agricultural and many other other business areas. Want to talk about some smart machines like off Smart Car Smart farm machinery Smart Homes, maybe even smart government. What I want to do is to tell you how we're going to repeal all tools long. How many of you are familiar with all tools law anybody won? I'm sure are familiar with Murphy's Law. That's the law that says if you don't know anything about the subject matter like, you know, like the future if anything can go wrong. It will words that nature is a bitch favoring. All of the Earth was a countryman of Murphy Law simply states that Murphy was an optimist. We're going to try to repeal that long as we go into the future. I'm also going to try to get you to change. Your thinking Paradigm as academics was thinking I want to take you away from all thinking centralized does thinking all distributive make of the analog with Edison when he invented the light bulb he felt that everything would have to adapt to his light bulb all of the offices. All of the home is all of the factories. And in fact, he envisioned a tall buildings would be redesigned such that there would be a centralized Hall two houses light bulb and all of the rooms that fan out from that that Hall and these rooms would have Windows now these windows wouldn't like Outdoors indoors to the hall so that artificial sun could shine in But I do know we didn't adapt to the light bulb but designers are damp the light bulb by putting a whole bunch of artificial Suns around a centralized control in the switches on the wall. Felt for the last 30 years. Emily on computer where all the four most of it any all we've been thinking about computer is in a centralized mode. It's only in this decade that we've been breaking out of the computer room and distribute much like the light bulb and I'd like to talk about some of that impact and show you how what we're learning and Zach filled will in turn impact in other areas of business trust that we have in the computer most of the handheld calculator to Scientific type calculator calculator is a very powerful device compared to 1950 computers. Let me give you an idea how powerful. And how and what it has replaced all of it. Go back to the beginning date in the computer World, which would be eniac computer Bob 1940 Ford of a 1946 that computer consisted of 18,000 vacuum tubes that you can hardly ever get them all to work together at the same time. In fact, they sell them work more than a half a minute and then it would take you the rest of the day to find out the ones that burned out and replace them. So you could run another half a minute and a whole hour would do the work of about 20 people and over 20 years of their life. So they wanted metric tonnes and 150 kilowatts of power to run it. That's more than you need to run a locomotive and took a room. And it cost about a half a million dollars not today as a result of advances in technology in the science of how to make these things. You cannot hold a computer in your hand. That's not much bigger than a quarter and it takes a lot of battery like a 1 and 1/2 impact. The battery is bigger than the computer and that computer has 20 times the power of that the 1945 computer. I need to buy for under $5. No, yeah, the same amount of advanced had occurred in automobiles each one of you should own a Rolls-Royce that you paid $2 and a half for and you should expect to get too many miles per gallon of gasoline. Obviously that much Advance has not occurred in that field, but that's a little bit driving or using in the 1980s at least the afternoon 1985. You see that advanced attic has occurred in the last 30 years in the computer world is going to be speeded up. In fact, we know the science that would allow that much advance to the next 10 years not over 30 years in the future but over the next 10 years and so that speed up Advance is going to impact and many other areas. How would you like to own a car but never has an accident never has to go to repair shop last at least sixty or seventy years and more to buy a used car. How many of you would like to have a car like that? How much do car salesmen? How do we doing? Well, we make the Car Smart William dad the computer inside together with a whole bunch of other things. We need some sensors to make our machine smart. No on the car. These are all the radar signs saw this country makes well over 10 million cars a year to get those types electronic eyes on the car would cost about as much as the headlamps. That's the cost to build. Those are two different numbers only forecast. The the customers Wacker slippery here and they're in deep snow or whatever. We need some other sensors to sense the condition of the the motor and the brakes and the like and the driver the system needs to know the recent past other driver, but only from Reaction Time viewpoints. In other words the reaction time like a heart attack or computer like device similar to the one that's in the handheld calculator and that device for the automobile in mass production with cost under $5. And what it would be doing is mediating those sensory input to determine among other things the time to impact of your automobile going at something or mpac is critical in the person slave to the steering wheel cap react fast enough to prevent the accident at that point that computer in better than the automobile would send a signal Thermal actuators are in the light marks into the car computer like logic and sensors. And now we have an automobile that has collision avoidance equipment no more accidents on the highway. Now that's Utopia for those that would otherwise been killed her had an arm chopped off by the way a car that cuts off your arm or kills you is not a nice car by definition nice. We made it convivial. By cleaning up that interface and we have a name for this type of Technology. It's a new branch in the science areas. It's the design and the construction of convivial machines to make a nice natural and fun to use. No, that's a 1985. We don't kill off 50 people on the highway. We don't maim a few hundred thousand people end up in the hospital associated with Well Sunset is that future health machine that creates a deficit of patients for the doctors and hospitals. Let me go on let me not talk about fault tolerance the methodology for making system. So their self repairable and let me not talk about the design for piecemeal update ability. So you can add change on Cosmetics are a new ideas are new things to our system in a piecemeal fashion design for that. Let me not talk about that. Let me go on to a different type of future smart machine. Let me talk about area where we have a critical need to be talked about the growing in the production in the processing of food today, energy-intensive and Capital Equipment intensive and The price goes off course, we don't have any middleman out here in the audience today. Well, let me see. Let me show you how that might change a little bit then let me talk about two types of farm future Farm machines to get the wheat or corn or soy beans to maturity and then one to take it off the farm and create an end product like cookies or more cornflakes or whatever. No to get the wheat or corn or whatever to maturity takes typically 8 machines a piece of capital investment equipment and 12 energy passes over the land. What are they? All there is the plough and the tractor I'll takes a lot of energy to pull a plow through the ground and a good tip over to soil you lose 40 to 60% of the moisture in the rain gods have to be awful good to you to pieces then you need to just to break the the dirt up a little tiny pieces are rake or something you then you need a jeweler Cedar to put the seeds in the ground and then you need a fertilizer machine you do that more than once while two or three times and then you need a cultivator are Harborside type of delivery machine, which should do two or three times again, and then you need a Fungicide or pesticide delivery machine and if your irrigate in Waterdown date machines and typically 12 energy passes over the line. Can we do it with one machine and one energy pass soup, when you go to with wind energy pass what we do in the world of the productivity of people and we can do it with one energy passed. We raise the productivity of energy a new thing to worry about in the world of management raising the productivity of energy. In fact, that's the date when the US Department of Agriculture is forecasting one some form of a smart machine would be a news. Let's use non tillage farming instead of stirring up the ground and loosened up with a plow. Let's do it by one of the four five methods of doing none tillage in the laboratory that uses silence sound or microwaves. Most of you are familiar with the microwave oven but think about using the microwave and all the wiggle the ground to loosen it up and as we're passing this machine or the ground wiggling the ground we're going to be drilling holes in the ground using some of that Space Age Technology that's been on the moon and Mars on the line because we want to test the above and below the surface and the reason for that we want to select on our farm machine the right Capsule that's in pockets on the machine. These are biodegradable capsules contain a lot of goodies. We're going to set that on the ground based upon what we sensed in the ground. To compensate for what's their back capsule releases? Its goodies over the full growing season of that wheat or corn, you know like that cold tablet releases a similar type of a thing. However in the encapsulated farming seeds to guarantee germination the nutrient the fertilizer the pesticide the fungicide on the herbicide and because you don't turn over the soil for some things you need to create some oxygen and based upon the weather forecast. There's some moisture not the total amount of June would need to grow up song. And all together with each one of these goodies in that capsule is a smart chemical detecting in real-time the condition of the soil and one that can chemically text need some more fertilizer. For example, if then causes a catalytic action to occur to release first agent around the plant and then the the fertilizer and the environmental sounds like it because you don't broadcast poisons around is very efficient. But what would we do what we got the wheat and corn or whatever to maturity with one energy pass and one machine and we've turned around for me instead of being energy-intensive and capital. Can you imagine how rapidly? Soon after 1985 will be in various stages up until 1985. Harvested and converted to something we can use largely in Minneapolis. Our sister city. Its economy is based upon Pillsbury General Mills Green Giant and cargill's and things like that. Think about a farm machine on my Chrome miniaturize Factory the text what's growing and right on the land side of a 1 step process with inside of the machine. It converts that wheat to cookies packaged and palletize ready for delivery. We now have the science to do that for how about a machine off on the Iron Range that's converting to order that it's digging out of the mine to Bumpers or chairs, or how about a machine passing over the cotton field converting the Cotton shirts or bras or t-shirts or whatever I think about that poor Farmer in the spring wheat or cookies corn or corn flakes. Anna liffeys to like sweet foraminal cookies instead of weed. For example, he has to set the dials on that smart machine. So I plants three or four rolls a week and a half a raw sugar beets in 1/4 of a roll of flavoring chocolate chips to the most of it can be growing on the lamp. And what's the reason? Why do we want to do it again to raise the productivity of energy and to some knific Lee reduce the cost of a very necessary item called. Let's look at how is energy and centralized chance. So let's take the cookie case today. The farmer takes the wheat and trashes into little tiny pieces and stores it on the land and that the tracking process and storage in that process. You lose some from the rats in the mice and the other bugs in the moisture and then there's an energy middleman past week for a little while and then an energy middleman pass to take from that storage to the flour mill where it sets as weed for and you lose some more than an energy middleman passed through the flour to make flour. Flower for a while, then an energy middleman past to take it from that storage to the cookie manufacturers store as flour tortillas cookies to the large grocery change distributor and their expenses cookies for a while or awhile energy middleman pass to put it on the shells to the grocery store and then an energy passed by you and I to take from that store and then finally we use it. No, imagine of micro miniaturised Factory machine that's mobile is no longer stay stationary run it into the ground. It passes over that field of cookies growing cookies, not eatable cookies and converts it packaged palletized ready for shipment to the grocery store. Can you imagine how much that would reduce the cost? Can you imagine how that would change the infrastructure of business when these things become used in use today? We have the sign and the know how to do it will take 10 to 15 to 20 years before they are in common use in the beginning in the early part of the next decade for certain areas. So these are Big so we can learn from those studies rather than waiting until putting the hotel. They're put into society and to find out what's wrong with them. In other words. We want to find out what's wrong so we can correct the problems ahead of time one of the basic about the future. Hockey field is ready for Harvest and he yells at his Cookie Machine time to harvest cookies waiting for the machines have a reason for not wanting to work by this time on the machine has the circuitry built-in to understand the spoken word and to TalkBack already up to close to a thousand words vocabulary is of the laboratory and Charlotte will be able to piece together these words into sentences and phrases and maybe a little later paragraph and understand them and do something as a result of that understanding but think of that machine that says besides to humor Farmer Brown and says hold on a minute and you been ignoring me all day. So Farmer Brown goes over and Pat's the machine machine replies back not now. I got a headache. I can forecast. 1 with 100% accuracy that that some designer is going to integrate such silliness into future machine. That turns out to be a rather interesting area of study. Let's talk about some other types of very very small areas already circuitry that you can put in the watch. We're up to about 30,000 to 50000 logic circuits. Plus maybe that's how many bits a memory. My 1985 at the rate that the science is progressing there. We should be able to put in that area what we now take out great big room to how does a very large computer together with millions and millions of words of memory to put into a very small area going us to build some rather interesting people appliances and information appliances other hand calculator and this watch is a early forms of people appliances. But think about a smart management machine or a smart Health machine or a smart lawyer machine or smart doctor machine or smart veterinarian machine and there's a long list of machines had a long list of opportunities for people in that type of business and thank we're almost like and you have the three or four trays of candy in the in that glass thing and in order to spend that nickel you spend maybe 15 minutes trying to decide by picking and choosing. Well, that's about where were you at least some will areas of the computer business like the kid of old but too many opportunities. Well, let's make a people Appliance on all what form do you want? Do you want it like a flat screen book? Sounds like a typical Buck Ray have a television like screen on it some dials and some light pen so you can write on it or do you want it to carry it in your your pocket like a billfold or a calculator or do you want to wear it on your wrist? With a magnifying glass to blow up that screen so I can get almost a whole page information. Why do you want to use micro TVs? Like one of our customers has been doing at the University of Utah for at least 10 years. The TV is about twice the diameter of that panel about that long course. You can't see very much on that boob tube when it's not small. So I need to call if it's a small. Where would you put Are you wouldn't do it into a box, you wouldn't put in your pocket. If it kind of hard to read it and put it on the Bose of the glasses and fill up your whole visual space with the written word or sent you got two of them there. You'll float three-dimensional images in your visual field. If you put it there or on your wrist as a response as your people Appliance and information of all you get for free almost ability to sense the pause. And since the surface moisture of them scam know if you are hyperactive or prone to have a heart problem you want to know those two things because those are for tellers of a problem and if you can check these things soon enough and if you have a device that's on the job 24 hours a day detecting for not somebody else but for you, it's your machine your friendly machine All That device becomes a useful Health machine. You can go on to send the temperature and transducer the blood sugar racial. No. If you're diabetic, let me see in Glen Alpine sensing the blood sugar racial can eventually squeeze in the insulin. We wait until we have a crisis and then we react to the problem. The future is says that's the wrong way to go about it. Let's not be reactive. Let's be proactive instead of sensing the blood sugar racial. Let's the saliva at the adjusting point and when the person is ingesting the wrong thing the machine cause of the ingestion of a chemical that's going to constantly keep the blood sugar ratio on the proper balance. So the person never gets out of balance. So the person never has that diabetic crisis and so far and that's a different approach. Imagine wearing your future Hospital in that nutcase your future doctor in your future hospital all rolled up in one twenty-four hours a day on the job do everyday Well, we're going much farther than that and some of the investigations think about that machine that smart Health machine. That's also sensing the environment and looking for cold viruses and flu virus so that the machine causes an aurora to be produced around you not handle know what an aurora such that is very difficult to accept. Somebody else's cold or flu getting to learn how to do these we have the science. The problem of course is to do the developmental trial and error work that'll take 5 to 10 to 15 years before they can become in, you get back to that fancy glasses that allows you to give me things in three-dimensional form or the written word in your visual space imagine to be able to see what you're managing all the time in real-time another word. You have sensors out there, whatever your area business do. So you can see your total business if your airplane mechanic, for example, you can be on the ground and you can be so you can see the airplane and in route and by putting the actuators in the proper place, you can repair from the ground. They're playing in Flight instead of waiting until you can get back to the Earth. So there are many many different things that we can do when we can image in three-dimensional form. Real thanks and coupler with the our knowledge and in fact. If we can couple it with our knowledge in such a form that we can store vast amount of information in the machine such that we can use it in the real time or whatever. We do know these are called knowledge-based systems offer many years 15 years in the computer World. We've been working with such things as artificial intelligence management information systems Information Management Systems database Management Systems computer aided design computer aided instruction and a long list of other types of routines that are of the same ilk. We're just at the point where we're beginning to combine these into a whole service type of support package. Imagine having that house on the system to you to everybody and whatever you do another words almost the totality of what Society knows in a fashion that you can get out of the real-time farm and by embedding in these devices am not logic that can tell you how to use that information. In other words how to make that interface convivial the system tells you how to use it or just embarking into that future by making a by studying making these types of people and information appliances, but these knowledge-based systems that are becoming more convivial when you extrapolate to the 1985 to the 1990 time for tell us that we're going to do our business very very different than we are today.