Bruce Watson, consulting meteorologist to the U.S. Weather Service, and Ron Willis, meteorologist at the National Weather Service, discuss weather, drought, effect of ozone, and results of elm tree cut down. Also includes an audio tour with Willis of the Twin Cities National Weather Service office.
Read the Text Transcription of the Audio.
The time is 10. Good morning. This is Dan Olsen and Saint Paul 37 degrees Fahrenheit in the Twin Cities area. 3 degrees Celsius, like rain reported the barometric pressure at 29.57 and falling when does from the north of 20 miles per hour the relative humidity at 92% at saint-cloud at last report 37 degrees Fahrenheit. The relative humidity is 84% the barometer a barometer. There was a 29.66 and steady that were Northwinds at 14 miles per hour at St. Cloud at 9 gusting to 24 miles per hour. There's been about eight tenths of an inch of rainfall at Rochester as of this morning 37 degrees Fahrenheit to degrees Celsius at last report at Rochester relative humidity 90% wind from the north gusting from 20 to 29 miles per hour the barometric pressure 29.42 and falling that rainfall by the way at Rochester was in was within the last Thirty One hours. Here's the weather forecast for Minnesota the updated forecast as of 9 this morning rain in the Southeast today.Play mixed with snow before ending late this afternoon or evening occasional light snow in the Northeast variable cloudiness in the west Northerly winds today from 20 to 35 miles an hour eyes today will rain from the 30s to the low 40s partial clearing and a bit colder tonight across the state Lowe's from 10 to 20 above in the North to the low 20-degree readings in southern Minnesota variable cloudiness tomorrow with a Chance of light snow or flurries beginning of Northwestern Minnesota lake tonight, and then perhaps across the steak tomorrow is tomorrow mostly from the 30s to the forties the weather you hear about it dozens of times a day on the radio to wake up to it. If you look out the window or glance at your newspaper, some banks spend thousands of dollars on signs to flash the latest temperature in Fahrenheit and Celsius or they erect large light fixtures that change color when the weather changes. However, or wherever you get your weather. It all comes from one place a National Weather Service Office. The Twin Cities National Weather Service office is located at internet.No airport in the metropolitan area it is there that all we need to know about the weather is measured observed collected and then prepared for the weather information consumer by 32 staff people out there. And of course the weather that we are the weather information that we have these days has come a long way from the days of red sky at night sailors delight red sky at morning Sailors take warning weather forecasters still watch the sky to be sure but they have help in the form of satellites balloons and radar there isn't time to describe all the facets of weather forecasting snow for the next few minutes will let Ron Willis narrator tour of the Twin Cities weather station that he took me on yesterday. And then after that tore that run their rights to Ron joins us in the studio live to answer some questions about the weather. And with him is Consulting meteorologist Bruce Watson and together the three of us will cover some questions about the weather and later on in the program will take some questions from callers as well. But now a tour of the Twin Cities National Weather Service office. This is are observing console ban. This is where everything starts this is the basis for everything that we do once an hour. We take an observation of the weather here all these temperature and the humidity is pressure Sky condition cloud cover a lot of parameters and at the same time we're doing about 300 other stations in the United States doing the same thing at the same time fact all over the world and from this information. We are jar weather maps and get the patterns of what's going on at the present time. We have what looks to be a digital clock in front of us that at this moment reads 1910. What does that tell us? This is in Z time or Greenwich Mean Time, which we operate on once we start going into over from standard to Daylight things get a little bit confused. So I wear the Weather Service operates. We operate in Z time and a lot of our products go out strictly NZ time that we have an electronic writing device that just Build out a message here that says MSP VA and so on what the dent tell us a writer and it's connected to several other users around the airport and the other the airports around the Twin Cities we after observation is taken by observe. Are we right the observation on this piece of equipment probably elect a writer. This is picked up among other places downstairs in the FAA flight service station and they in turn transmit that observation for us on the FAA teletype system what we just received as a pilot report and it's a little bit hard over, Minneapolis. Run once all the information is gathered at this point what happens to it? Once the observation is taken and put on the electric Rider goes down to the FAA flight service station. That's put on the FAA teletype system. Then these observations are sent down to a computer center down in Kansas City all the other observations from the United States are also sent to that same computer and within just a matter of seconds to I may be a minute or so, then we start to receive these observations back on our teletype system. An hour and ring the radar room and all the lights are out except for some screens in front of us wrong, right? This is our weather radar NWS are 57 or weather radar precipitation on its I see you have the capability of reaching out about 250 miles maximum. And that's the outer edge of the Ring there and you're saying there is a little ice or rather a smaller scope on either side of the main scope the score on the right hand side that is used to tell us the heights of the clouds. We can stop the antenna and move it up and down vertically and especially during the severe weather season in the summer time is very important that we know how high those give me the score from the left giving a nice to green colored picture. But in the winter to I buy the intensity of the alcohol that's being sent back to us from the cloud of the weather system operator can determine if it's a severe thunderstorm if it's rain hail snow or just clots know. Somebody has taken what looks like a marking pencil to this send her round screen Ron and they looked it looks as though they've drawn some some lines in the indicated some cloud cover there. What does that telling us ride? The operator takes an observation at least once an hour when we have weather on the radar and he actually drawers in wax pencil or outlines the area of precipitation. Are there some little red areas inside the larger y'all are you these are areas of more intense precipitation is it turns out then from this is again a transparent map of the area and then determines where the precipitation is according to Connie's or so many miles this side of hair there. Wherever and then we do a radar observation to the news media again, at least once every hour. Now we've entered the room where there seems to be a lot of activity run with the teletypes, right? This is our Communications room. We got to talk. So I've started in here by themselves because they know I would guess about a dozen teletype units in here somewhere running all the time. So I'm on Standby. We have communications with our computer center requires down in Kansas City where we're getting the observations back from all of our forecast also go into that same computer system and we have the capabilities of asking the computer for any of those forecast at any time or any bar Caster to put out by any other station in the United States if we friends since wants to get a state park pass for Oregon, we can sit down at the keyboard and type of grey shark request message that goes into the computer and we can receive that forecast for Oregon how many people radio television newspapers so on and so forth Into your Center gear run there's probably 70 or 75 and this includes users like Highway departments and there is but an awful lot of people on the news media also. Okay, this song when I was standing in our forecast area. We have to forecasters on duty at all times twenty-four hours a day one man Works mostly with the aviation products distribution forecast for 8 different airports within the state responsibility. By the way in forecasting is the state of Minnesota. So the aviation man is preparing 8th Edition forecast for supper airfields in the state. He also prepares 8 route forecast for Minneapolis and Fargo or somewhere and he can just pick up that certain route forecast and see what our best guess as the we're looking at him would be I leave farcaster. He is the one that prepares the local forecast that we here for Real Estate forecast and the Zone forecast. Went to outlying areas in the used to four other parts of the state. He also prepares her what a star is that we here three or four times a day from variety of sources as I understand is that right satellite Communications weather radar readings that you have been taking his I write short rain prediction in in for extending it out for a day or two. We do have satellite reception capabilities here. We get a satellite for every 30 minutes comes from a satellite which is stationed over the equator just about due south of us. It's it's up in the air about to 20,000 miles 18 or 20 thousand miles from the national meteorological Center in the Washington DC area. That is always maps that you see here. Play information the observations from all the weather stations around the country that are taking every hour are also fed to the National meteorological Center as well as station that does sound up weather balloons as usually two or three of those in each state gets information and a computerized out in the in their shop now. So most of these maps are computer made and the computer digest all this information then comes out with that what the patterns look like at the present time both at the surface and it's several layers a lot. But then also comes out with forecast of what the computer says. They will look like in 12 hours 24 hours 36 hours and a computer is very good now and this is what we call guidance. The forecast will be definitely are you can see the scale on these maps are the United States on the one here we're looking at now is about 8 or 8 or 10 in across the whole United States some of the bigger the surface analysis map is more like a couple of feet from west to east in the United States has to take this information on the narrow it down to our own State and our own local area and refine it as much as we can and come up with our forecast in that way. That was Ron Willis of the Twin Cities Office of the National Weather Service leading us through the Twin Cities weather service facilities at the International Airport before we get into the spring weather forecast. I want to ask Bruce Watson who is a Consulting meteorologist. Where are you get your weather information Bruce and maybe it's part of that. You can describe a little bit too about what you do when they service the National Weather Service is the only organization action United States that takes observations on a regular systematic basis with stations are well distributed across the country other people do take data like these FAA but their stations are generally located where there is a Aviation need and they don't take actually observations in the extreme detail is National Weather Service doesn't fact nobody does by. We also I do use data that is gathered by the Minnesota DNR, but the National Weather Service again as even had a hand in getting that start. And occasionally I may use some of my own observations but I would say that probably something like 99% of my observations are either directly National Weather Service or distributed through the National Weather Service return to your private Enterprise in in awhile Bruce, but first of all gentlemen, we are about 2 weeks into spring. What do you predict we can expect for the remainder of the spring season first, Ron Willis. What kind of weather can we look forward to a day or so and the forecast indicates that precipitation which is what we're probably most interested in and have been for several months now will be above normal for the next 30 days has been above normal through the month of March and in fact slightly above to February so we are looking toward an additional 30 days of Above-normal Presa suppose it's not polite for weather forecasters to disagree by Bruce. Does your outlook agree with what Ron has said, I guess it does. Yeah. I actually concentrate on making the weather 6 to 12 months ahead. And for this I actually use the climatology again. All National Weather Service date of this is been gathered actually since 1817 and 1817 is when the United States government first established the National Weather Service, and this was in under the military without US Army until 1891. I believe it was when you're passing the civilian control. They had a Sasa separate sibling agency formation that I look at the Nature has rules that operates by for instance. I have been forecasting since last fall that we were going to have a wet spring in by this. I mean that rainfall is 20% above. Normal, and this would be true the. From March 1st to about June 30th. And then I expected to get dry after that that we're going to go below normal in precipitation that actually you do get a drying out of the summer generally between or about the 4th of July and August 20th, and then you get wet again normally but I'm expecting it that. From about the 4th of July through the end of the growing season will be blown. I'm 1% Cajun now actually some of these long range forecast take something off a lot of digging to make them but that's one thing that I found it will actually got his dry last ottobre 14 times previously in history is the one so just based on that alone. When would be time to think that there be 14 chance or 13 chance all the 14 that we can recover again, but then I do use other things too when you put these together. You can come up with their projections that work out there quite well, so there's a reason for optimism to a certain degree. It sounds like maybe broken perhaps partially the spring and then it'll be below normal precipitation. Again, this summer is so Bruce has predicted another of it. The last thing that storm on February 26th by the thing is that that was a signal that we're going into a new pattern. This is another thing that we watch for establishing patterns because if you noticed many times you go for months and months with things occur that I was somewhere that thing is what we do get a stormy season 4 around March 1st until about April 10th. That's when we get these nice big storms that originated over Colorado and move on up and give everybody rain after April 10th. Then we start to go into a the season where we get these small showers and for sure. I'm going to get messy when you get into this gentleman. We've had this rain in the past few days and weeks now, it's crossed much of the region and the Twin Cities. Of course, it's had its share Rochester getting their share of rain today has been a normal spring so far in terms of moisture. First of all, and also does the pattern of rain so far this spring tell us anything about what we can expect first run. I think certainly like Bruce said that once a pattern did change in late February the overall flow pattern in the upper atmosphere did indicates things better things were coming for us as far as precipitation. And of course it has winter we were seeing the upper air flow out of the Northwest which was bringing us not only cold air then cold temperatures, but also dryer what happened toward the end of February the upper are patterns switched around the flow became more from the southwest and allowed them warm. To be brought in from the south from the weather warmer areas the Gulf of Mexico and this is a switch that we had been looking for and is the same tie pattern that we expect to continue on into the next several weeks. I think the fact that Bruce also and the case that his opinion that we will have continued. What weather is in everybody's favorite. Now I have to ask both of you how good you think your opinions are what's the accuracy of your forecasts? How much can we rely on you? Well, I looking at what we said hear the cast as well as the Weather Service forecast is based on past records and it seems to be just about the best thing we've got going for us. We've seen that droughts are cyclic 20 years to 40 years Cycles. It works pretty reliably looking back at the past weather records that till we stay into a are we get into a drought situation about that off and stay for one two three. Here's something like that and then start to come out of them and it certainly is the best thing we've got going for us. And I think it's pretty reliable. Now, we've heard John graph of the National Weather Service Office of the National Weather Service tell us that drought is migratory to a certain extent or he think so in any case, we've also heard various theories as to why drought occurs when it doesn't have two questions regarding drug does drought have a beginning or an end that can be pinpointed by weather forecasters. And also what causes drought is it the activity of the sun is a changing weather patterns in the upper atmosphere one. Well, first of all, yes, it does appear to migrate when you look at the maps and that's one way of assessing it. Actually. What happens is that when you get into a job. It'll General ask for something like oh 3 4 5 years and the thing is that not very often does the same area get hit twice, but the general pattern will establish itself over the Midwest so that one year, perhaps the South Dakota Minnesota might get hit next year. It might be iowa-nebraska. So in that sense, yes, what does migrate I'll bet you generally do have these dry conditions for this five-year. Let's say as far as the sun is concerned and the sun are part of one's system. We're all part of the solar system in the earth is very highly related to the side because all of our energy that we get on Earth comes from the sun. This is why the areas A gas better than a solid laying on the ground and it's also why the winds blow at least Sun makes the wind blow into the Sun Also a crisis would cause the water to evaporate the guy turns into clouds and then becomes precipitation. So the entire atmosphere is solar powered. Now if we look in the Opera that we see that there is a layer of ozone yummy hide Stratosphere and in the mesosphere and this ozone absorbs ultraviolet light very strong and mostly rest of the energy the sun gets down to the surface. But when does ozone absorbs the ultraviolet radiation is heated and when you hit the ozone which is not evenly distribute incidentally the ozone there's a lot more of it over the middle latitudes in there is the Equator. So what you do by hitting the ozone of the middle latitude is heat that are you cause it to move and when it moves its going to move in a different direction and if it weren't there, so this affects the upper win. is upper winds in turn have an effect on the winds that blow at lower levels would cause our weather so indeed the sun does a very much affect our weather now the thing is it the output of energy from the Sun is not constant from year to year from decade to decade get varies and is result if you get more sun energy you're going to hit that ozone extra and if you get less energy you're not going to use as much this is going to change the way the winds blow up there that's going to change the way does the wind blow down here and affect our climate on top of that of course there'll be sun actually most of the energy of the Sun is the Earth gift comes out of the ocean about 80% of it that's the big tournament equation and if you fail your gift calling this very like a dozen when you're the next are going to change the amount of energy the ocean yet and that distributions going to affect the way the winds blow and entering the way the wind blows going to drive ocean currents and saw this entire thing is all wound up in One big ball you might say this is why we have our weather in this is why we have Cycles why we have droughts. Then why we have fine with it. Run. I wanted to return to that question of whether or not the beginning or an end of the drought can be pinpointed by weather forecasters. Yes, I think it can John Graff we mentioned is in charge of our weather station here in the Twin Cities work pretty closely with very closely with the doctor Baker the University of Minnesota Styles department and the State Department of Natural Resources climatologist late last summer when we were really in the you drop. And at the request of Senator Humphrey came up with a best guess well look back at the weather conditions of past jobs and past years and also came up with a best guess as to what may be expected weather wise precipitation wise for the next couple of years and they did find that the fall. After the crops are taken out of the ground. And before the ground freezes is the best time for soil recharge at September, October and November and looking Back in that that. Of 1974 1975 these three months of both those years and also 76 where are well below normal precipitation in these areas, like maybe 35 to 40% So the fall recharge did not occur then last year course, it was dry All Summer in the crops since they didn't get much rain which to draw on from the upper layers head to draw heavily on that subsoil make it even dryer but I didn't write the Federal Register is not on record that a green again with what's Bruce Bruce's forecast said that we would have a more normal red and that at least I'm through late spring precipitation would return more toward normal after spring gets a little questionable just We're going to give the listeners a chance now to put some of their weather questions to you. We have to telephone numbers that we want to give out. Dark Twin Cities. Telephone number is 2 9 1 1 2 2 2 2 9 1 1 2 2 2 for those of you in the Twin Cities area who would like to ask questions of Ron Willis of the National Weather Service Office in the Twin Cities and Bruce Watson Consulting meteorologist. We have a toll-free watch number that you can call and that number is one 865 29700 800-652-9700. That's for listeners outside the Twin Cities area. The local number again is 29112 to 2 before we take any calls a couple of more questions about the weather in this area looking back in history that we found it weather has changed substantially over the Upper Midwest. Well, it depends on exactly what I mean by substantial I would say yes, but the thing is that the climate is always changing there's things that start all at once and they'll continue to go for something between old seems 8th and 35 years and after 35 years just about any changes or two runs with cars one change that we're in right now for instances cold weather with high chance of frost in September and this actually started about 1960 where we began to get a lot of coli outbreaks starting or around August 25th. This is also coincide incidentally with dryness at this time. Abnormal dry weather has been occurring from late August through the rest of September. This normally used to be a very wet time of the year. In fact, we actually do have a Twin Peaks where rainy season 1 Peaks around June 13th and 2nd pick traditionally was around September 10th or 2nd, rainy season has been feeling us now for some time. This has been replaced by outbreaks of cold dry air from Canada, which in turn is resolving these early Frost and this has been going on and it still is going on in this is why prisons I plant my garden early this year rather than late as you look through the whole thing. You do see decades. We're really strange things happen friend since we just had a whole string of cold winter from 1880 until about 1888 and people actually becoming very alarm is that the client has undergone a permanent change that from now it's going to be that way but one 1890s camel. It all came to an end and it all came I pretty much to an end up until recent times now. Actually we have been running cold in the winter time since about 1963. Most of us have been below normal temperature. And this last one was just the most excruciating when so you do get these chains from time to time. We had a. Where we got extremely hot weather in the summer time. I saw something like 90% of the time that the temperature is reached the height of the Twin Cities in the last hundred sixty years occurred in that one eight. You're pretty from 1931 to 1938. So you get these bills that come and go and the thing is that one thing is always happen though. Every one of these would have come along cuz all I got and that one thing that is not happen is any major year-round change in the climate of the area you get these things that start and stop But in general the whole Grand climate we have now if you go back in the 1820s it so you can still see it's just the same Planet gentlemen. We do have a question for you from a caller a go ahead Ron and Bruce are listening to your question. Doerun why did you take a stab at it? Okay, if he's interested in becoming a forecaster, this is his best bet if he's still in high school is to take as much math as he can physics also since this is what meteorology is all about the physics of the atmosphere and in order to understand the physics, you need the map to go along with it the same thing goes for college training a lot of stress on the math and Physics degree in meteorology. Certainly the military Harbor does offer excellent training the Air Force and the Navy in meteorology. They will train you in forecasting some times. I even send a person to a university for Advanced Training you get great experience in the military also. So one of these two routes or both as the normal background that a meteorologist has before he comes to work with the National Weather Service. The only point is is that the supply and demand curves now are not quite where I would like to see them. There are not very many jobs available and there are quite a few people looking for work in the field of meteorology. So I just returned to be one thing to consider right right now now that curve may change but the important thing is that there's more automation taking place all the time. So the number of job certainly is not going to be on the increase and not everybody works for the National Weather Service either as a meteorologist Bruce Watson for example, as a Consulting meteorologist, and as a result, I miss him Bruce that businesses and individuals come to you for weather outlooks. Is that right? I'm pretty sure I engage in is I say I deal in the time. Of six months to a year. And the reason I do that is that's where the economic application that is. What was going to happen over the next 100 years other people like to deal with going to happen over the next millennium by the end of the fuel rail. I know what it is going to be on the next time you're at the next moment. They should go to some of the operating many many areas just about any if you'll find somebody operating in probably in general probably saw several areas. I work actually probably in about four or five areas. I do a lot of work done because I stay on this long range forecast was that we forecasting is projections what you're doing because it's not a true forecast in the classic sense, but I also do work for instance and severe storm investigation. I do a lot of work in climatology and I do a little bit of work in meteorological Hazard associated with your quality. One thing I actually did that. I don't do I actually don't really get deep into your quality modeling and things like that despite the fact that I worked in this developing some of the basic models way back 10 15 years ago, but the thing is that fine after restrict my practice to not certain areas because you can just get out and do everything and then you ceased being any kind of an expert. So you'll find it. There's about a 70-year private meteorological companies around the country and just about all of them may have thrown that area or areas to stay. Specialized now gentleman. We have another question from a caller. Go ahead run and Bruce are listening to your question. About 90% of the time or alphabet enhancer. Well, there you go. 5609 / right. This is the only line that we have the end of the office the only public line with the recording and ring through it turns out that number one in the great money-saving Tran of the federal government that we aren't able to get more lines. But the main thing I think that in order to be able to answer all the calls that we would get especially on a day when there is a lot of weather is that we just couldn't possibly have enough people standing by to answer all the calls. The next best thing is to try to distribute our forecasters to the news media who are our right hands and right and left-handed say in distributing the weather to the public get the most people I say the biggest bang for your buck. We need we are working a rather. The telephone company is working to have our forecast sponsored. And if this were to taking a fact there would be multiple lines listed that would go into a unit that would play our forecast Harbor it still would not ring so into our office and I don't think that will ever see the day when we'll be able to have that multiple lines coming into our office. We don't have the Staffing to handle that sort of thing. One thing that people might want to do is buy a little radio for about old $12 Nicholas kec 65, it's National Weather Service broadcast from and this place continuously 24 hours around the day and it gives just about anybody the information all the information that every want about what the weather is and what it's going to be gentlemen. We have a number of other questions from callers will get to them in a moment. Was Bruce Watson a Consulting meteorologist? You just heard before him Ron Willis from the National Weather Service Twin Cities Office of the National Weather Service. And we have another caller on the line. Go ahead run and Bruce are listening to your question. I'd like to watch the rising of the Harvest Moon and I know there's no way I can find out that it rises in st. Paul. What number would I call around that time? Well, you can find the time of the moonrise and moonset actually from the National Weather Service, or I do get some calls every year for this you can eat if you're interested in that sort of thing that I would urge you to call me. I'm in the Yellow Pages under meteorologist. So you might want to check that but I'd be glad to have the answer to that kind of a car and I'd Services free I so we have another caller on the line know we don't have any calls right at the moment. We'll wait for just a moment and give out the telephone numbers to 9 1 1 2 2 2 2 9 1 1 2 2 2 in the Twin Cities listening area you'd like to ask a question of Ron Willis or Bruce Watson are toll free number for listeners. In other areas of the region 1 800 1-800. +652-970-065-2970 0 before this program is over. I want to ask. Both of you about the weather modification and I hope to save some time for that but I see that our phone lines are rather busy right at the moment. I suspect there are some questions that we can anticipate we've seen and heard from a number of Western and Central Minnesota Farmers who are especially interested in this weather modification business. They're organizing fun drives to raise as much as $100,000. I believe I've seen too high or aircraft and people from other states to come in and participate in some weather modification projects. And I think I'd like to get from both of you before this program is over some reading on what you think of that. I think we do have a question. Go ahead Ron and Bruce are listening to your question. Hello, go ahead. Ron and Bruce Willis. about how the ground is the air near the ground is warm currents and Why can X. You can have a frost even though the temperature might be 36 or 38? I probably well one thing is that the official temperatures are taken at a level somewhat above the surface of the ground and that the ground right at the ground level is cooler than the temperature say at the five foot level on back where the official temperatures are taken. A lot of times you can have many times below freezing temperatures at the ground level, but still not have Frost you have to have a certain amount of moisture available in the air before you actually get Frost formation, but it is it is called her right next to the ground in the lower layers by a couple degrees or so, then you would find up at the level of the official thermometer. I'm not sure if this answers your question, but this is the way I see it is there's a difference to between Frost and a hard freeze. Is that right? Yes, Frost again is the Frozen moisture that's his visible in the morning. When you come out of doesn't have to be really extremely cold as you would consider for a hard freeze and frost is just the Frozen moisture you may or may not have Frost when the temperature gets down to an area below freezing. All right, we have another question from a caller go ahead run and Bruce are listening. possible for anybody to tour the weather facilities or an individual Yes, we have quite a few chores coming to our office. We have found that younger children below the junior high school age. Don't really get too much out of trying our office there quite busy looking out the window at the airplanes and other things but from about the age of 13 or 14 and higher from our observations and students to get to sing to do get some good out of a tour. So what we try to do is take a call or a letter Perfectly Used to give us a little time to work on it and check our duty schedule. We try to set up to us when we have a farcaster available to give it to her. Our big problem right now is that we are all slight bit short on the Staffing due to various reasons and we don't have an awful lot of these days in a week. Now. In fact, I many weeks we don't have any more weed. Someone not readily available to give it to her. Why don't you give an address wrong? Where are the caller can write to in case she wants to request a time for a tour? Okay, where the National Weather Service Office Federal Aviation building? 6301 34th Avenue in Minneapolis. All right. We have a number of other callers on the line or go ahead. Ron and Bruce are listening to your question days in advance. Can you determine what kind of weather are we going to have chili say? What's how accurate are your predictions in 2 weeks. Well, right. Forecasts on a routine or daily forecast. We normally go out to no more than 48 hours. We do every evening issue an Outlook which takes us to the end of a five-day. But it gets a little more General by that time. I'll buy General. I mean it's more like for the temperatures will be above normal or slightly above normal. We do give her a wide range of what we think our maximum temperatures will be and minimum temperatures and if possible days on which the precipitation is likely then once we get beyond that 5-day Outlook the 30 day outlook, which I mentioned earlier is very general saying things such as the precipitation will be above normal your normal or below normal the same thing for temperatures. There was a 3-month Outlook spring Outlook put out earlier this year because of Interest generated in the drought situation, but more normally are 30 day outlook is just about the extent of what we go with. All right, the time now is about 18 minutes before 11. That was Ron Willis from the National Weather Service office with him Consulting meteorologist Bruce Watson. We have another caller on the line with the question. Go ahead Ron and Bruce are listening. Yes, we can. Over the last hundred years ago. If you look around in the fall, most of the Acres of the state or fall plowed and this would affect the absorption of heat from the Sun on one hand and on the other hand. I think it would probably allow the moisture that does fall in the Swale to be more readily released to the atmosphere again. How do you think this plowing up of the Native Prairie sod has affected the weather over the last hundred years and what can we look forward to in the future as the way this agricultural practice changes. Our weather is greatly altered the weather on the micro-scale actually if you went back to Minnesota, that's like a hundred years ago in the forest area. You would have an entirely different impression of Minnesota winter than you have now because if you are so is your only by a forest like our ancestors were you take out the effects of these strong chilling winds in the winter? You alter the length of time you have snow on the ground the snow would stay on the ground much much. Longer back in the olden days because of the heavy Forest covered and you would just have an entirely different small-scale climate than you have now now it's an especially that's not even true enough as the elm trees all come down. People are going to find a very radical change in the way. They perceive the climate indeed. There will be a radical change when I could climb. In fact the change the wording to get in the climate when the elm trees come down. It's going to seem much stronger than any of these large-scale changes. I've talked about that have occurred over the last hundred sixty years because you're going to get a lot more Sunshine is going to be a lot hotter in the summer time. The demand for air conditioning is going to increase and in the winter time, the winds are going to be a lot more severely and probably fuel consumption will go up because the house is being somewhat Drafty will release their heat and as a result is going to affect the economy is going to affect people's personal. Comfort in fact of Scootaloo probably have to be bundled up a lot more on the walk to school in the Twin Cities than in the past. You're going to have to spend more money for clothing. So you very definitely man has extremely altered the small-scale climate and this is very important and often times you overlooked this but that can be actually more important as far as economics and comfort a concern then these large-scale changes that take place now as far as man altering the large-scale climate, we really don't know and this is one thing that the national Center for atmospheric research in Boulder. Colorado is working on that is their bag is working on what effect different energy exchanges have on the large-scale climate in the fall piling prisons would be one example of man. Massively altering the Earth's surface over rather large area and this could indeed have any fact, we really don't know what the effect of that is why we don't know what the effect of putting the particulate some of the atmosphere as we don't know what the effectively putting the carbon dioxide into the areas a theoretically we can say that the adding carbon dioxide is going to cause a war me the atmosphere because carbon dioxide traps outgoing heat. Well, it has no effect on the incoming energy and we partake of course, we have the opposite effect of reflecting sun energy. I'd it would normally hit the Earth surface. One thing. Of course, then I probably the thing I'd be most concerned about would be the alteration of the ozone layer by before carbon sprays in my opinion that could have a much greater effect than any of these other things in that you're dealing with a trigger mechanism. As I said earlier the heating of the ozone by the sun Alters the wind direction and this in turn Alters the climate so up there you're dealing with air that is not very dense at all and fluorocarbon because of nature of it can destroy a great deal of ozone just takes a little bit 12 carbons to destroy an awful lot of hours on so that is a guinea area that is looking into it and hopefully they will come up with something. I answers before we eat affect any major change in large-scale climate, but I don't know maybe Randall's but I would say the definitely right now. We really don't know what the effective use of man. Large-scale changes, but we certainly do know that man who is activities very severely Alters the microclimate, which is really just as important as the large-scale climate. All right, just a clarification Bruce microclimate the climate. For example that affects the Twin Cities area. Is that what you're talking about? Small-scale? And these are that's when you're talking over at your lips stay over one square mile to a hundred square miles were talking about Michael kleiman have some more colors on the line. Go ahead run and Bruce are listening to your question. Do you have any Houston projections for the spring and summer weather in that area? But a hundred miles north of the Twin Cities in Aiken County not specifically when we're talking about a long-range microphone and microclimate Tessa Brooks and indicated wear when we're projecting a head like that. We have to be satisfied with attempting to give the best outlook for the large area. So we would have to go with the projection as we have indicated for much of the central and southern part of Minnesota of continued are rather wet weather there are certain times and areas when the a certain system will pass and area pass over an area one place will get more precipitation than another but to what we're looking at is an overall. Continued voice pattern several weather systems moving through the area of every month, which we would think would tend to every child support application over the area. So that one place would not necessarily get much more than another one. We're talking an area the size of Central and Southern Minnesota. So again, we're thinking of normal or above normal precipitation. Yeah, actually, yeah, I agree completely run on the same note. If you are talking about far Northern Minnesota than we actually are getting a little different climate. And of course one thing is in northern Minnesota has not been getting the raise that the agriculture areas in the Central and South Sossaman getting and the situation of their looks to me right now to be very bad for the coming. I'm sorry. I can expect more of the same then. Well, you have the thing is that we're just about out of this big storm season. Of course, we all are familiar with the State basketball tournament storm. And one reason, we usually get it right around here is because that's right in the middle of the season. But once that season is over, it's when you lose your big widespread rings. Are you going to your shower Regine and it's very difficult for the showers to cover a large area because the show is our small especially in April and May they always tend to be small when you get into June in the showers are bigger. In fact, the some thunderstorm metal systems will actually cover the area several counties in this is why in June that just about everybody may end up getting ready and even though it's a shower easily because the storms are so big in the ass up. So that is practically The Last Hope for northern Minnesota is for the area as a whole how to get some good rains would be this coming June once July comes that it's too late. So they all look there. I would say is not good at all. We have another question. Go ahead run in Brewster listening. Yes, go ahead run and Bruce are listening 1965 if there is such a thing is a tornado alley that comes through the Northwest suburban area. And also what is the vulnerability of the downtown area Minneapolis. Francis the IDS building and so far I got it yesterday is a tornado belt in the Twin Cities as the area off to the West starting about late-night DACA going up to Golden Valley Brooklyn Center on Orca Ham Lake that are is there is much more subject to severe storms and tornadoes then let's say the area along the Minnesota Mississippi river is the reason for this request is the temperature Prague Rafi of the area as well as probably be off to the west of us. We have some extremely high ground in, Minnesota. It runs for about the north of Willmar up to Leech Lake and this is about 1000 feet higher than the land off to the West the Red River Valley where the Mississippi River off to the East and the effect of this shows up very very clearly not only on weather maps but also on a lot of us storms storms over this High Ground tend to intensify. There's a lot of singer originated there in the thing is when the air is out over the Mississippi Valley or the Red River Valley you get a lot less rainfall there. It's an entirely different climatic regime it slow down and are tested think of course when it gets into a low spot now entering the course, we have a lot of topographical change between that High Ground north of Willmar and the Twin Cities. In fact the Twin Cities. We have several hundred feet difference in elevation. We have these Hills and Valleys and this causes the wind to flow in preferred directions. We are just doesn't flow smoothly over a rough surface surface is going to flow very your regularly and this creates prefer yours for storms. And that's why you get more storms often. What's the Twin Cities do what do downtown be more vulnerable Downtown Minneapolis high buildings problems with wind circulating around them highly knock the IDS building over but a big tornado did hit a large building like that in Odessa, Texas sometime back and it took a lot of Windows we run. Did you want to add anything? That sounds pretty like a pretty much means that during the hot summer day the city center seems to heat up more than the outlying areas because of all the driving services. Teton is all so dry and there is a theory posted that sounds pretty good that when the tornado unless it's one of the big is a killer tornadoes approaches that if it were bearing down on these Twin Cities metropolitan area, it would tend to be dissipated to a certain degree by the heat island not necessarily the heat but more or less they dry are being punched into a Sensi Sye tornadoes and severe thunderstorms do feed on moist air but we're coming up now on 6 minutes to 11 and we have a number of other callers who have questions and I must warn them that we may not get to all of the questions before the program must end here at 11. We will certainly try our best go ahead run and Bruce are listening to your question. Dr. Browning projected that have a climatologist. I think it's Albuquerque in the future climate in Russia. It's Graham. Would be moving stuff out of the whole country altogether that the United States is Grandma will be moving from the middle region to the southern region feel that his forecast really will have some effect and if you do have there been any government agencies that have been talking to you about this is a very important thing to consider in the future of the of the nation actually has been one of the two people have been working on a long-range and now we're talking about the hundred-year type projections and I would say that my daily essentially would tend to confirm what he saying about the next hundred years or the next 50 years, whatever it is being dryer and cooler. Then let's say we've known for the last seventy years up to the turn of the century. I think that they do support that I would say that if that did happen if this would indeed. Let's say aboard your for the rations and that you likely would get the green belt. Should I shifting actually out of their country to buy South during the end in the United States? I'm not sure that we would get the are Greenbelt shifting South because we do have the Rocky Mountains that run north-south off to the west and these mountains together with the Gulf of Mexico help set up by precipitation and younes has it wouldn't necessarily get a north to south movement the country but you might get a west to east movement in the more the Prairie belt league created by the weather be reason that we have pray there is because of the way that the Love for their off the Gulf of Mexico set up. There's not enough moisture that far west miss could shift off at least abused most likely affect the here-and-now United States. I think true also that's the Breakthrough is certainly will continue to be coming in their cultural techniques and the speed with which these breakthroughs come in. My opinion would probably overshadow the very long-term slow changes of any weather patterns 1 and 1/2 inches dryer get your unit talking about five or six 6in. Are you talking like that as you can see there is no end to the calls on whether people have lots of questions. I must apologize to those who have called and we're waiting in line to ask a question of you. We've run out of time for this program and all I can say is if the interest generated by the calls indicates that hopefully you gentlemen will be able to visit us again fairly shortly. I just want to save just a minute or two to ask my question about weather modification and whether or not both of you think that weather modification has any app Haitian whether or not it indeed changes whether to benefit of particular interest of some group of people run. Why don't you take off first. I have some experience in weather modification in Alaska just before coming down in the Twin Cities hear the object in Alaska was to seed building cumulus clouds and cumulonimbus clouds before it became a large lightning produce thunderstorms to hopefully hold down on lightning strikes in the forested areas. We did see these clouds job supposed to oversee the claws try to kill them running through their life cycle of a fast. This definitely does do something to the cloud. We weren't really certain if it really ever accomplished the the job of cutting down and lightning fires, but it definitely has an effect. I don't know if it's been proven know for sure. That's under dry conditions. Which drug is if you can not do it enough good with seating to accomplish the goal Route 30 seconds or less on weather mod. I think I just hit a couple of High Point since we're so short a time. When is the cloud seeding probably increases rainfall something like 5-10 10% over growing season. This is really the best estimate. You're not talking about 20% and I doubt very seriously retiring about 0% of their supplies. If you see the clouds mirrocraft, which I believe he's actually is the best way to do it. I really wouldn't have any figure for sitting on the ground. I don't know what he's like that might have very good gentleman. I'm sorry, we run short of time. Thanks to Michael Moriarty for operating the board for this program and Kate Williams for production assistants, and we've been talking with Ron Willis of the Twin Cities Office of the National Weather Service and Bruce Watson Consulting meteorologist gentlemen, we have in front of us to 10:35 National Weather Service radio radar summary from the Twin Cities office precipitation is ending over Minnesota, according to the radar like rain mixed with some snow is occurring over Southeastern Minnesota and a few snow flurries are occurring over Northern Minnesota. Like rain is occurring over Northern Iowa movement is to Southeast over most of Minnesota in about 30 miles per hour. These are the Stations of Minnesota Public Radio