Nobel Conference XI The Future of Science: Glenn T. Seaborg - New Signposts for Science

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Professor Glenn Seaborg, awarded the Nobel Prize for chemistry in 1951 and chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission from 1961 to 1971, speaking at Nobel Conference XI: The Future of Science held at Gustavus Adolphus College in St. Peter. Seaborg’s topic was about the "new signposts for science."

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Now we are here to discuss the future of signs and to do so is nothing less than to prove. The very future of mankind first is the course of science reflecting man's ability to increase his knowledge and apply it wisely together with his spirit for creative and constructive change that will determine that future. Since we are a conference about scientists and theologians and up specialists in general General is but above all of human being is vitally concerned with the human condition is a hole and the direction in which man is moving. Let me briefly State my position about the spirit of man and then I will move on to focus on the future of science. There are unfortunately many who see the spirit of man in a state of decline. as symptoms of that decline that usually side such factors as an excessively materialistic outlook on the part of the advanced Nations a degrading of the environment in a wasting of non-renewable resources a rising nationalism combined with a hardening attitude toward development and a breaking down of social systems through all levels of government and institutions right down to the family unit itself and to some extent there is some evidence for all of these claims and the media highlighting and emphasizing all the symptoms of the world's problems lens strong emotional support to this picture of Decay and do But without denying for a moment the seriousness of the world's problems and the challenges they pose I contend that there is an increasing evidence to show that men and women all over the world are reacting positively and strongly in response to these challenges the available but usually unheralded facts confirm that never before has there been such a concern and thought and action on the part of so many individuals and institutions National and international over the condition of man and the world as it exists today. There is no guarantee that all these responses will be correct or productive. As a working out of our evolutionary process about which I will have more to say later many such responses will fail and some will even be proved to be counterproductive those that do will most certainly take their toll much as do all harmful mutations in the natural evolutionary process, but I firmly believe that with mankind the successful responses will prevail moving us to a higher plane and contrary to what some Skeptics believe neither our Technologies nor institutions will become the Tar Pits of humanity. We will survive and Advance by changing them to meet our higher needs rather than declining and then decline by adapting regressively to the poor conditions and environments that they might create as they become outmoded and harmful. The fact that we are already in the process of doing this which accounts for so much of the fermat ferment and agitation visible today is the reason I remain an optimist concerning the spirit of man. So now let me turn to his science and outline for you some of the directions in which I see it moving and here again, I am an optimist, but as you will see perhaps I hope a conscious one. Both Science and Technology will undergo a great many changes in the years ahead in general. I think we will witness a brief. Of conservatism for science when reflected in the public support of Science and perhaps within the science Community itself a more cautious make haste slowly attitude is going to Prevail for a for a while and I would say of course that we are already well into that. I think we are going to see it continuing shift of Interest toward the life sciences particularly toward many facets of biology and biochemistry and toward the social and Behavioral Sciences and this is already underway. And perhaps most noticeable will be a Renaissance in engineering as a number of new ideas about how we should live in the future begin to take hold and must be transformed into realities. And this I believe is not so evident yet. If we talked about the economic expansion of Science in the future. I think we must come to terms with the fact that the rate of its growth will slow down. This however should be put in perspective and particularly in perspective with the last 25 to 30 years, which must be recognized as a. Of exceptional grow during the peak years of this. Science support increased at an average rate of 15% Annually, of course, this was a time of unusual economic growth not only for Science and not only for the United States as Lester Brown pointed out at the 2nd general assembly of the world future Society last June the society to which dr. Gover referred in his introduction the global economic output triple between 1950 and 1975. We cannot expect the last quarter of this Century to be an extrapolation of that trend. In many respects we would not want it to be either instead of. Of slower growth one of maturation and transformation will take place all of which ultimately will I believe prove more beneficial if we look directly at science, we can see many reasons why it's growth will follow a similar course. In fact Science and Technology are already on such a course and are now beginning to be subjected to a number of new influences and pressures and I would like to mention a few of them. First there is the economic squeeze on the funding of research and development. And this has several effects in a country that historically has been rather pragmatic about his science support. There is now understandably amounting pressure on science and technology for economic payoffs since the late 1960s. There has been a slight shift to support from military and space related research. The research oriented towards civilian needs with economic conditions focusing greater attention than never on such needs significant results are now being expected and it is difficult for the public to understand why Science and Technology cannot produce miracles on demand as they did for the Manhattan and Apollo projects. It does little good for scientists and Engineers to respond that the nature of the problems are different that they don't lend themselves to the same kind of solution that the controls are lacking. And even even that sometimes there is no common agreement on goals. The public has too long been conditioned to the idea of Crash programmes and to the notion that the right combination of money and Manpower can solve any problem within a set time. The concept that we live with him what might be considered an Ecology of problems dynamically related in subject lesson any time frame to complete solution then to amelioration and change it just beginning to Dawn on many people including many in positions of authority and important decision making functions. No one result of the emphasis on quick Solutions, is that as the general economic situation Titans as attention to priorities increases the division of those funds that are allotted to research and development development may be made to heavily in favor of applied and developmental work. And this of course is not a new situation. It is actually been going on off and on for a long time, but we are now entering a phase where it is becoming acute. There is always been difficulty in balancing basic and applied research. Even Louis pastuer was torn between the need to advance the practical application of Science and that of advancing the basic knowledge that underlines that underlies all progress. This was quite evident in his speech of 1854 in which you probably announce the establishment by Imperial decree of a new University degree under the title of certificate of ability in applied science, then after praising this degree and stressing the government's attachment to the spread of Applied knowledge. He launched into an impassioned defense of theoretical knowledge and its basis as the mother of practice that alone can give rise to and develop the spirit of invention. And there's a caution to his fellow scientists less. They let the pragmatic influence get too strong. He added it will be especially up to us not to share the opinions of those narrow mind who disdain in The Sciences all that has no immediate application. Now another important influence on the future of science is the other side of the cost-benefit coin Forest Society is interested in greater and more immediate benefits from a science and technology. It is also more concerned in these times with their growing price tag, and there is reason for this concern today's methods and tools for conducting scientific research and disciplines are more capital-intensive than ever and the cost of equipment and Manpower has risen at a rate faster than the general rate of inflation and for example, and I use the field of physics here. Admittedly costly discipline the cost of instrumentation between 1945 and 1975 Rose between 175 to 200% as compared with the average rise in the cost of living index of 75% for the same. In addition to the increasing cost of basic and applied research. The overruns and developmental work are becoming a notorious and giving rise to second thoughts about many and major important projects. How is the result of all this we are going to see tighter budgeting and closer over siding of all science and technology programs with a greater demand for accountability depending of course on the attitudes in the wisdom of those who have the ultimate control over the support of these programmes. The result could have any of a number of effects they could reduce waste and sharpen the focus of our objectives in a beneficial way, of course. But on the other hand, they could have the conservative effect of giving the major support to the most conventional research and only the established researchers tending to narrow the scope of work detrimentally and severely limiting efforts in new and potentially significant directions. But most certainly these tighter times will force many scientists to become more publicly responsive inarticulate about their work and it's all emit contributions to society and we see this very much in effect today. This brings up another kind of accountability Eastside aside from the economic aspect which will have a great bearing on the future of Science and Technology. It is the kind of accountability that concerns itself with their risk-benefit rather than the cost-benefit ratio its focus is not on the question of whether the work is worth doing but on whether its potential harmful Impact May outweigh any good it could do what does a research or project in fact should be initiated at all isn't often in question this influence on thinking related to research and development Rising rapidly over the past half dozen years or so and being Institute institutionalized by such requirement says environmental impact studies and Technology assessments is already a major factor in determining the future of sign. It is affecting work on energy resources & Technologies biological research aircraft development advances in Communications and the use of the computer and even research in the social sciences and education almost every Federal agency involved in the support of research and development in a scientific or technological field can attest to the groin effect of this influence. The latest of these is the National Science Foundation until recently, perhaps the least controversial of the federal agencies today. However, NSF is finding itself under attack. Buy a number of members of Congress and some elements of the public for supporting certain types of research grants in the social sciences and the development and implementation of Science Education programs that some find objectionable on the grounds of the values they teach and as many of you know, this controversy over the support of Grants deemed unworthy or even detrimental prompted one Congressman to introduce legislation that would require every research Grant approved by the National Science Foundation to be reviewed and passed on by the members of Congress to the alarm and consternation of many this amendment to the NSF authorization Bill what went so far as to be approved by the House of Representatives. Fortunately, it was voted down in conference. However, I think it has left a permanent mark on the science Community. It is served as a warning to the science Community as to the kind of attitudes and restraints it may face in the future. This Congressional activity and other public reactions indicate that a good part of it of this new outlook Springs, not only from economic interest or even from concerns with the risks of physical harm to the environment or people but from a new combination of growing humanism and increased activism on the part of many segments of our population this combination forcing greater attention in the public area to ethical and human value considerations is an outgrowth of the many movements and attitudes that we saw developed in the 1960s and in the early 1970s, it had its origins in the youth movement that war activism civil rights the environmental interest and the new new consumerism. It is going to have an increasing effect on the support and conduct of Science and I think most scientists are recognizing this and as in the case. As in the other cases of new influence it is going to have its good and bad effects. Essentially. It is vital that signs does serve the highest interest of society and contribute to the Fulfillment of human values and I believe that the science Community for the most part is acting very responsibly and responsibly in this direction in many areas of research such as genetic experimentation atmospheric work and the effects of chemicals on human health and the environment. It has taken the lead in initiating measures to place human concerns Above All In addition the matter of ethical and human values and Science and Technology is itself the subject of research programmes being supported by the National Science Foundation in conjunction with the National Humanities and die. But it should be realized that while there are certain values and ethical codes of a universal nature. There are also values that are more closely associated with the tastes and the likes and dislikes the habits and culturally induced beliefs of various individuals and groups attuned to certain so-called lifestyles in a Democratic Society and particularly one of growing advocacy and activism. There are bound to be many conflicts over these and Science and Technology with its increasing influence on life in general will certainly be caught up in many of these as we see so much evidence for today. If this is the case, it may be essential that means are worked out to establish some broad codes of conduct and values by which Science and Technology can operate to maximize human benefits within a framework of some type of consensus value scale. It seems to me that we must do this in order to avoid being paralyzed by a kind of case-by-case value judgment of almost everything we do this does not mean that technology assessments and risk-benefit studies event of individual Concepts should not continue to be conducted they should nor does it mean that signs should not maintain a most profound sense of responsibility Georgia safeguarding Society from possible errors on its part or Miss applications of its work obviously science should It does mean however that we must find a way to avoid having a tyranny of the minority's when it comes to the possibility of advancing the general good through scientific progress. There is no doubt that this problem the matter of balancing the human values of individuals with the technological and social imperatives of the larger Community is going to be one of the major problem for Democratic societies. Not only the United States but all around the world. There are as I will point out in the moment tremendous pressures forcing the situation and the world with its growing and dynamically related problems can ill-afford to suffer a failure of nerve or a failure of imagination is Arthur Clark terms them and using signs to help build a better future, but this is a possibility If conservative attitudes toward new knowledge and change come to dominate the sea. Having discussed a number of problems and influences that may affect the future of science many of which could act as restraints on its growth. Let me turn now to the reasons why I believe science must and will grow and buy that grows. I do not mean simply a larger expenditure of money and Manpower devoted to it, but the development of new directions and paradigms to advance it. I see three major groups of pressures that will force and increasing development and use of science and technology for men survival and change and these three are related to the thinking of a Parson a politician and a psychologist. Thomas Malthus David Ricardo and Abraham Maslow the first and perhaps the dominating pressure is the malthusian and here I refer to more than just the need to balance population and food supply also, although that remains the most basic requirement the Neo malthusian concept encompasses the production and consumption of all resources and no matter how we may disagree about man's ability to increase production about the extent of the world's nonrenewable resources about the Earth's carrying capacity environmentally or thermodynamically or any such thing. We must agree that the global the global rate of population increase today does exert an enormous pressure on civilized man. And it is a physical social and moral pressure. And no amount of intellectualizing about triage or a Lifeboat as a is going to reduce it in my opinion. I do not see this. Our nation or any other Advanced country writing off any desperate people without a major effort at emergency aid, but even more important I think we will see a greater attempt to help all struggling Nations develop means to help themselves. And this is where Science and Technology will play a big role in discovering developing and transferring the best means for peoples in different lands and facing different sets of conditions to work out their own problems and their own destiny. And this is the approach increasingly being emphasized today. One can see it in the new Wade and advice going out to the developing nations in the new educational programmes and in the policies of the United Nations and the World Bank and other International developmental organizations. It should prove far more successful than attempts to impose westernize forms of agricultural and Industrial Development on areas where they may be physically or culturally unsuited. Call Susie and related pressures will continue to feel the need for more Science and Technology beyond the point where the so-called demographic transition takes place where the economic and emotional need for a large family declines. And the birth rate levels off. This can be seen in countries where the birth rate is approaching or has already reached the zero population growth in these cases. The labor force will continue to grow as will the formation of new families. So so certain changes will force New Economic growth, even though the number of new mouths to feed eventually levels off. This is evident here in the United States where in the basis of children already born? The next decade will see an increase of 25% in the labor force and 34% in the number of new households. In addition to this population age shift, we will find a 61% growth in the number of consumers in the 24 to 34 age bracket such a shift might not have been very meaningful in the in a world like that of the Middle Ages were people expected their rewards in the Hereafter but our Global civilization today is increasingly temporal its instant communication and almost as rapid travel have sown the seeds for the kinds of pressure that will drive Science and Technology even further. We might term that pressure meds Lothian because it forces men to seek fulfillment of a hierarchy of needs that go far beyond those of day-to-day survival. This Midlothian pressure is related to the revolution of rising expectation that we have witnessed in the past few decades. there are several variations on this theme related to the Us and other Advanced Nations Daniel bell calls it the revolution of rising entitlement because of his feeling that many people know no longer merely expect a better life by believe that such a life is literally their Birthright in a potentially affluent world and they demanded In contrast to this recent International economic and energy problems have prompted the former un delegate Charles used to speak of the rise of falling expectations and warns that the disappointments ahead for those who are frustrated in their drive for a better life will provoke rage and new political violence and upheaval. I don't ever want to predict how this will all come out, but I can assure you that one of the topics that will be foremost on men's Minds in the years ahead will relate closely to the matter of a better distribution of the world's wealth. the effect of this is going to have the fact that this is going to have on science and technology will of course be very significant it will cause as I mentioned before a focusing on methods of Agriculture and industry, but suited to the developing regions among many other things this will stimulate all the multifaceted research related to the cultivation of arid and tropical lands. It will increase the focus on health and nutrition in these areas. It will force a more intense investigation of the natural resources of these lands. And in addition to the finding of better ways to use these as Commodities it will emphasize the innovation of labor-intensive methods of manufacturing them into products for which there will be World Markets all this is going to pose a great challenge to Science and Technology to both the advanced and developing nations or must learn to work together ever more cooperatively. I see no alternative to this other than and increasingly explosive and catastrophic situation. Related to the malthusian and Maslow V and pressures and Science and Technology will be a pressure tied to a theory of David Ricardo. This is essentially as the idea that is demanded resources grows and they become scarcer and scarcer and less accessible and Lauren quality the capital cost of finding in developing Rises until eventually such costs are prohibitive then a major decline in the standard of living sets in This of course is a major factor in The Meadows model in the club of Rome project. The limits of growth as Meadows sees the world running out of capital to develop resources long before those of resources themselves are are physically depleted. He discounts the fact that Science and Technology have long been engaged in a running battle with ricardian economics and have managed to keep well ahead of the game. For example, we have managed to find and use lower gray doors at lower costs. We have developed cheaper substitute materials to replace costly resources. We have developed our efficiency and productivity and ways that have reduced material and labor and capital costs and we have shifted to new technologies and social systems that changed our relationship to resources entirely. The question now is at what rate can we continue to do this Meadows and his followers argue that because the doubling time of our population growth and resource use is now so short we cannot avoid a catastrophic decline within the next 50 to 100 years without establishing a much slower rate of growth and a move towards stability. Now whether or not you agree fully or partially or not at all with The Meadows models or their conclusions. It seems to me that Science and Technology are now in a Race Against Time. It is a race that must see us develop at a relatively higher efficiency of resource use and a lower energy level both a standard of living high enough and well distributed enough to achieve some social and political stability throughout the world for the next 25 to 50 years. And it's this we will be enhancing the possibility that world population May indeed level off between 7 to 10 billion people. During this. We in the more advanced and affluent Nations will have to sacrifice enough of our standard of living to support intensive research and development into a variety of innovative and perhaps radically new ways to operate the world. These will include entirely new Energy Technologies Agricultural and Industrial Systems and National and Global political and economic arrangements for the truth is becoming clearer each day that while we may not have reached the limits to growth yet. We have just about reached the limits of conducting our lives in the same old way. From this standpoint Meza Robux and pastel are correct in the second report to the club of Rome mankind is at the turning point. We must restructure and redirect our attitudes and efforts in the light of the organically and interdependent world that exist today to do otherwise to try to continue along the same line of the past quarter-century is as I've indicated to court catastrophe. Before shifting now to send thoughts as to the directions Science and Technology might take at this Turning Point. Let me stay the few basic social imperative that I believe must underline this movement and I believe it is essential that we pursue and Achieve three broad goals one that we maintain peace throughout the world and intensify our efforts at Arms Control in limitation and eventually disarmament the world can no longer if it ever could afford guns and butter. I knew meaning must be given to security tied to Global development. Second that we establish a much higher level of political and economic cooperation among the nations of the world a global economy exists and must be treated as such. third that we further increase our International cooperation in science and technology in the kind of joint research that it will allow us to find mutually acceptable solutions to Global environmental problems and in programs of Technology transfer that will benefit all I believe I must say I will not dwell on these three imperatives as I believe this audience is highly knowledgeable about them and well-tuned to their need instead. Let me conclude with some brief remarks on the direction Science and Technology may take in the years I had Most of these directions will be centered. I believe on two broad goals. More fully establishing the boundaries of physical environmental and social in which we can operate and providing the knowledge Capital that will allow us to operate Within These boundaries it is that knowledge capital capital upon which we have drawn. So heavily in the recent past and we wish we must replenish with new ideas that will allow us to compensate for declining physical capital and higher-cost resources. For example, let's turn to the field of food and agriculture. So prevalent in the world's mind today in many ways. The production of food has become more energy and capital-intensive modern high-yield agriculture depends to a great extent on chemical fertilizers and pesticides on irrigation and on mechanized production and harvesting methods to bring more of the world's arable and potentially arable land in the production will require considerably more of these resources. This is particularly true as we try to develop the semi-arid and tropical regions that represent special problems. But though we will do this our biological and biochemical Sciences. I believe hold the key to many other ways to increase our food supply. For instance. It is possible. They may help us to convert a large portion of our agricultural products and other natural products not now edible to humans into a huge new source of food new research in microbiology and enzyme chemistry is indicating that the more than 150 billion tons of cellulose waste produced. Annually with the world's agricultural output can be converted to food Fuel and other valuable products with the help of certain fungi and enzymes. It is possible to turn this material into sugars and alcohols amino acids and a variety of other materials organic chemical solvents drugs and antibiotics the biological and chemical Sciences are going to help us in our food situation. Also in other Research in nitrogen fixation could lead to the creation of crops that would reduce our heavy demand for synthetic fertilizers that's reducing the chemical and energy resources going into them and their environmental impact as such as in nitrate runoff biological integrated Pest Control in which there is much interest research taking place would also relieve us of a growing Problem by helping reduce the huge losses more than 50% in some areas of the world of food supply through new research in plant genetics soil science hydrology ecology and many other fields. We must learn to support new types of agricultural systems in parts of the world would have resisted previous efforts at such developments. And where this may prove too difficult and costly perhaps chemistry can help us make use of some of the existing vegetation as food. One example of this has been a successful extraction of leaf protein which has been used on an experimental basis to relieve the protein deficiency of a of a group of children in India. And more broadly speaking. I think we are going to witness a new outlook on the world's vegetation and plant life of the some 400,000 million tons of vegetation produced annually by the process of photosynthesis men's yearly Harvest of food and fiber amounts to a fraction of 1% I've been some 250,000 plants known to man will use fewer than 100 on any large scale for food. So there is a great deal more of Nature's Bounty that we can draw upon if we learn to understand that she had what she has to offer and how we can use it how we can use it best. This is one of a great many areas in the Life Sciences where we must build more knowledge capital. If we will be turning more to the study of biological systems in the future, I think we also will be studying and learning more that is very useful in the large systems in the atmospheric in Earth Sciences. We have witnessed the beginning of this in recent years in the initial efforts of the global atmospheric research program in the tropical Atlantic last year over the next decade or so this big international program conducted with the cooperation and scientific resources of So Many Nations should give us a much better understanding of the interaction of ocean and Atmospheric forces This in turn will increase our knowledge of the generation of global weather and together with other research in the atmospheric sciences could play an important role in our weather and climate forecasting. We realize now how necessary this is not only to the Future World agriculture, but too many other aspects of our lives in addition to the reduction in human suffering that more knowledge in these fields could it affect there are large-scale economic benefits that could be gained by a more precise understanding of weather phenomena and perhaps someday a degree of success in weather modification of Court, which of course is a more long-range Prospect. In a similar vein much has to be gained in the earth Sciences work in the relatively new field of plate tectonics and other geologic disciplines could reveal much information that would help us in the discovery of new reserves of mineral resources as well as give us better control over our dealing with earthquakes and here again, there is vital economic and human motivation to acquire and use this new knowledge capital. What area of scientific investigation to which we're going to be forced to devote more attention is that of hydrology in recent years attention has focused on water pollution and some success is being achieved by government and Industry to clean up and protect our rivers and lakes and estuaries, but for some time now the world's water supply problems have been building and they're surely getting worse. We have been drawing increasingly on our limited supply of freshwater worldwide irrigation has grown tremendously the demands of industry in cities in many areas are rapidly approaching the limits of the supply of runoff water. In some parts of the world underground water supply is being dangerously drawn down and in many countries, there are growing saturation and salinity problems. In view of all this the world water Scituate is situation could reach crisis proportions. Even more pressing than the energy situation if not attacked by a concerted International effort recent water conferences have been the song. I have been sounding the alarm on this and I hope it is heated in time and with adequate cooperation and adequate result. Science and technology in the years ahead should play a major role in changing and improving man's use of his resources. The era of abundance in terms of waste is over. Scarcities the threat of scarcities and even the contemplation of scarcities is going to change our ways of operating. This is particularly true concerning energy a subject with which I would like to conclude the energy situation is unique. It is the first time in history that the entire civilized world is affected by the threat of a diminishing resource regardless of the fact that some people presently seeing oil glut in parts of the world or that large reserves of coal are still in the ground. We should expect the decline of the fossil-fuel age within the next 50 to 100 years. In view of this we must act now. And for a number of your reasons, the first lies in the recognition of how is essential energy is to every aspect of our life. Previously the availability of energy resources and it's relatively low cost. Lourdes and made us forget this for example in the United States the consumption of primary energy resources accounts for only 2.3% of the gross national product while in the rest of the world at average is only 1.6% This means that on the average a doubling of energy cost over the over five years would only consume an extra four tenths of 1% of economic produce each year and amount that could be made up easily without reducing real income. But energy availability is another matter as its reduction by 50% over 5 year. Would virtually paralyzed most sections of a modern economy and probably radically changed the lifestyle of the modern world. In addition to this thread a reduced availability of energy and its rising cost. There are other reasons that will drive us to use our Science and Technology to develop alternative energy sources. What is the environmental impact associated with the further exploitation of fossil fuels another is a fact that these hydrocarbons are and invent invaluable source of chemicals for industry as I once pointed out. No less an authority on oil then the Shah of Iran has reminded us that there are some 70,000 derivatives from petroleum today. And the third reason is that it takes a long time not yours, but decades or longer to properly research develop and bring it to full commercial use new Energy Technologies. They cannot be introduced full-blown overnight. No matter how good they look on paper or how well they might work in the laboratory. Also, it takes a long time to make all the social and economic adjustments in a large-scale energy transition. These and many other facts would indicate that over the coming decades. We must begin to change our relationship to our energy resources & Technologies. To make the required transitions we must carry out particularly in the United States a concerted effort and energy conservation. This can be done and it's carried out intelligently, it can be done without any great reduction in our living standard a reduction of energy waste in industry and in transportation in our homes and Office Buildings could help to cut our annual energy growth rate from its more than 4% to between 2 and 3% with little economic hardship. But some initial economic sacrifices will have to be made to develop our energy Alternatives and this is true for the entire range of them whether they are nuclear solar or Fusion nuclear fusion or any combination of these the current impasse and developing legislation to set long-range energy policy for this country lies principally in the fact that the political courage is liking to tell the public it will have to pay in. The number of ways to assure is Energy Future. Until we get by this impasse. Our progress will be slow ones past it we may see remarkable advances. Associated with this is a final thought with which I would like to conclude and that is the energy problem epitomizes the great dilemmas. We face in using Science and Technology to advance the quality of life for the human race. Our success and science over the past few decades has innocence fostered many new problems for the world. But it also has given many of us a false sense of security and idea that science moves us toward a utopian problem problem list Restless Society. Nothing could be further from the truth first because man and not science and technology is such always is accountable for the choices that either in Rich or diminish the quality of life. Secondly, we live in always will live in a dynamic situation. I made problems whose solute Solutions will breed other kinds of problems and in a society where the leaps of progress will be proportionate to the risks taken. Even within the bones of a steady-state society a no-growth society or any other scheme of population resource energy equilibrium. We might achieve there always will be change and creative growth that will challenge the human intellect. There always will be dangers risks and increasing responsibilities that will drive us toward a new level of excellence in all we do or try to achieve this is the process of human evolution at work a process that started with man's ascendancy and will continue for some time how far into water and I will leave it for you and others to speculate upon But we must believe that it will all turn out well and we must work constantly toward that end as a scientist. I believe Edwin H Land once once put it for scientists and Engineers optimism is a moral duty. Thank you very much.

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