Spectrum: Marilyn Chou speech at the 31st annual Farm Forum

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On this regional public affairs program, Marilyn Chou, a policy analyst from the Hudson Institute in New York, speaks at the Farm Forum in Minneapolis. Chou shares her impressions of agriculture within the People's Republic of China.

Chou is introduced by Fritz Corrigan of the Peavey Company.

Read the Text Transcription of the Audio.

Maryland Joel received a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from Wesley, Wellesley College in Massachusetts She joined the staff of the Hudson Institute as a policy analyst in 1969 where she has worked on studies in a variety of areas, including corporate environment World agricultural potential and studies for the office of Economic Opportunity for the department of health education and Welfare. Much of her work is focused on China, Japan and Korea. She visited the People's Republic of China in 1975 to observe agricultural communes. Her current research is in the area of worldwide food problems and Prospects. She has expertise on the economic development of the Middle East has contributed written material for several books in the area of world food needs. It is my pleasure to introduce you, Maryland. I must say this is my first visit to Minneapolis and I'm so impressed at what a warm with reception was at I see an audience from one years old on upwards here. I think everybody seems to be so interested in all aspects of Agriculture as well as China. I'm really honored to be here today at the farm for him. And Hudson Institute, we have just completed a two-year-long study of how a growing world is going to feed itself. I've been very pleased to have my view some like corroborated by the speaker's here and send it for Farmers seem to be the key element and increasing productivity know. Where is this clearer than in the United States our success story is well-known. Today, I'm going to describe to you how Another Not So well-known countries has attempted to solve its food problem through increased productivity. Although the system is very different. You will see similarities since there are basic Universal human instincts such as motivation and incentive involved. My observations are based on a visit to China. A year ago as well as accounts of other visitors. My husband and I traveled on our own through China for a month since we had relatives there and we both speak Chinese. We were able to see China in a way not usually possible for visitors. My husband had left China in 1957 and was anxious to see what changes has occurred since then. He was glad to see family relationship still very close, but he was disappointed that the security measures were still so tightly enforced. It was my first visit and I was interested in seeing how China has managed to food problem particularly since I have been working on a study of world food prospects funded by the National Science Foundation. Now how has China become the world's largest rain producer China produces about 270 million tonnes the us about 250 and Russia and a good year about 220. How has China with over a fifth of the world's population and less terrible and the United States managed to rise from the situation of recurring famines to a relatively comfortable degree of self-sufficiency? Since 1962 China has given priority to her agricultural sector. That's what we were told here and entirely understandable policy given her large population. In fact concern for eating goes beyond simply filling the need to satisfy an empty stomach. Do you think has been and continues to be a favourite Chinese Pastime when you travel through China? You can't help but be impressed at how much food do you see around and how well people seem to be eating Brandon. We couldn't go to every place in China and there might be places that weren't as prosperous. But when you see how there are so many restaurants with different types of Muslim food Russian food all varieties all different prices, and the people are all Milling around these restaurants because they have the money to go to eat at these restaurant. I have a 23 year old nephew who is a red God and she was our guide for the restaurant and his interest in good food and good wine sounded like any seasoned Gourmet you might hear here. How does how does trying to give priority to our agricultural sector? It is estimated that the government's investment in agriculture in 1973 was nearly double that of 1958. Moreover the funds allocated by the government in the last 10 years have been 80% more than the agricultural tax collected in the same. Her objective now is to mechanized agriculture by the Year 1980 and she recognizes that this is the only way to increase yields. It's hard to imagine a country with over eight hundred million people actually suffering from a labor shortage. But this does occur during harvesting when the multi-cropping Harvest has to be harvested just come in has to be stretched. So they do feel that mechanization would help to relieve this labor problem. And where has China concentrated her greatest investment in her efforts to increase food production with less than 14% of her land arable. The government's major efforts have been involved in expanding her and reconstruction. one of the most common sounds heard in China is a blasting of Hills to open Moreland throughout China one sees when you land along railroad tracks on City Lots the second major area in which has focused her efforts is water control and irrigation. Is 1952 she has doubled her irrigated area racing proportion of irrigated land from 20% to 40% proportionately China has more irrigated land than any country in the world. This effort has enabled her Farmers to be less dependent on the whims of nature together with the development of high-yielding varieties seeds. China's Farmers have been able to double yields and most spray and stretch their arable land by 40% through multi-cropping. Some areas are growing three crops were only one had once been harvested. Ensure that the government has shoulder the responsibility for major capital investment. What about the farmer? What is motivated him to produce? Profit motive over 95% of the farmers live and work in comments which vary in size but are controlled by the state. Collective ownership requires that farm families organized possibility for profits and losses and therefore the physical survival a team members. Run small size Collective Farm in which Farmers have pool their land labor and capital and have agreed to be renew murated by dividing the prophets among themselves. There's a sense of shared responsibility and shared risks the cost and returns of experimentation Capital Construction and Innovation are mutually shared. One advantage of the collective system is that the larger tract of land sympathize mechanization. The average unit is about 50 acres and is worked by about 70 Farmers obviously farming in China is much more labor-intensive. One of the best examples is that before I left. I read a book on controlled environment agriculture around the world. It's too bad that we don't have any information on how China's operates greenhouses or even if she has any greenhouses. When I was in China with Rye fortunate it was October and I saw green houses being constructed of mud and glass and I asked the farmers about them. China has high greenhouses for 2,000 years. but arable land is so valuable that when spring comes they knocked down the greenhouses because I need that land to grow. Another motivation may be the Revolutionary Zeal and respect for the country's National goals. How much of the spirit is forced by the existing system and how much is sincerely felt is hard to measure we were told at 1, and we visited that a very small number of the farmers were lazy and uncooperative. Such farmers are not only penalized for receiving a lower income, but they are constantly lecture to until they have been re-educated. Workers spend an average of four evenings a week at meetings learning about the latest political campaigns. Can you imagine being subjected to lecturing on top of that? like lecturing seems to be the most popular means of Rehabilitation in China when we were visiting my Cousin's apartment in the city. I noticed that he had lost a lock on his door and I asked him why in such an honest Society. Is it necessary to have locks on your doors? And he said well, we don't have Burgers very often. But if your house has been burglarized you have to apprehend the burger and then you have to re-educate the and it's much faster to put a lock on your door. And what are the incentives which of motivated the farmers? The Chinese farmer is the same as Farmers worldwide. Enjoy seeing the fruits of his labor and material Comforts. He works to be able to buy his own home and consumer articles. One Farmer's home. We visited had three rooms each 14 by 14 with separate buildings for the kitchen and for the outhouse. House was constructed of brick the south side of the building has glass windows in the floors were concrete for them and compared to those living in the cities. These are luxurious accommodations the 3-1 house which cost $1,000 house the farmer and his wife his daughter and son-in-law and two young grandchildren. It was paid for from saving since financing through mortgage. It does not seem to be available. In the prepared speech the farmer's wife expressed her gratitude at having a guaranteed livelihood and at being able to give her grandchildren as much a goat's milk and pop as they wished my Chopra talk compared pre Liberation days to the present. She said her family owned for bicycles three wrist watches a radio a sewing machine and how to deposit in the Savings Bank. In an aside. She said to our young God who lived in the same residential area your family has more wristwatches bicycle and savings because you have more working members. The guide family has an annual income of $1,500 because they have five working members. education is now compulsory from Junior High in most communes and through high school and some health and medical services are available at very low cost birth control devices are given free in the city and In one of the Farms we visited I asked what is the most popular birth control method used here and they told me injections. And which are effective. China appears to be successful in lowering her birth per population growth rate to about one and a half percent a year through a policy which discourages early marriages 25 years old for women and $28 for men. A limit of two children per family with one child family considered more desirable and five-year spacing between the two children. in addition to these measures perhaps the most successful deterrent to a large family is the fact that the children no longer provide old age security working women now receive pensions at age 55 equal to 70% of their income and then the same at age 60 because the government recognizes the higher cost of maintaining an urban population. It is doing everything possible to make life on the farms for 80% of China's population more attractive. The rationing system favors those living in rural areas. So is Anne Burrell areas are allotted 552 660 lb of rain for season regardless of age. in urban areas people are given 300 to 600 lb of rain according to age and the activity required by their work only rain oil and sugar Iration Meats fruits and vegetables are not our relatives had Racing cards that they hadn't used since 1967, which I thought was indicative of the fact that there is sufficient food. Now what are the policies which have provided incentives for Farmers to increase yield? In addition to improving farming conditions the State subsidizes farmers by paying them higher prices for brain than our charge consumers example, the state may pay the farmer 1 and 1/2 cents per pound and then sell it for $0.01 per pound at the state Market. The guarantees a set price for a certain photo which allows a farmer to determine in advance how much you can spend on inputs more over at the state offers a premium from 30 to 50% above the basic poker price for sales of surplus grain. Furthermore the state has raised the purchase price of farm Goods while it has held constant or decrease the price of agricultural inputs articles in newspapers in China have reported that the state has increased purchase price a brain can produce to double the level of 1950. While reducing the retail price of farm inputs during the Same. By 1/3 to 2/3 the 1950 level. Major incentive. However, is there tax policy is paid in Grain or produce are calculated to keep the farmers liability stable. So he does not pay any more taxes as production increases. Is therefore able to benefit directly from his increase yield which are distributed among team members for their own use storage or for sale According to some experts the agricultural tax provides about one-third to one-half of All Grain deliveries to the states. The remainder of the deliveries is purchased from the farmer. Having briefly describe the highlights of how China is attempting to solve its food problem. What is the outlook for her future and can the US expect to play a major role? Based on her past performance of Shifting policies and recognition of failures and physical limitations. It seems probable that China will continue to place high priority on all out food production. And what has been the objective of her agricultural policy near-term to feed her people. How many is a mystery even to China today estimates range between 750 to 950 million? Long-term to become agriculturally self-sufficient the goal of self-sufficiency extends from the international Arena to local areas. Each team for gay communist and province is encouraged to stand on its own self efficiency is achieved by concentrating on producing sufficient grain for each locale. Brain is considered the key link to ensure all around development since I have no political leadership can expect to survive for long if it must Resort regularly to State grain supplies. A major reason why provinces are encouraged to become agriculturally self-sufficient is because China's Transportation infrastructure is still in the early stages of development. One reason often cited for China's large Imports of Brandon 7374 West Jeffrey the railroads of the burden of transporting grains from the country to the northern coastal cities. Another reason for the Imports was to relieve the pressure on Farmers to produce more. Of major importance. However, is China's fear of the Soviet Union? Which has resulted in her effort to stockpile large reserves of rain in 1975 this year. China had Ashley stockpiled 1 years There's nothing to substantiate this number. However What does this policy of self-sufficiency mean in church? China's foreign trade policy has been one of Independence and self-reliance. First she uses her and tried to promote modernization and accelerate economic growth while avoiding excessive dependence on Imports and excessive Reliance on anyone Market or supplier. Second attempt to balance exports and imports to avoid International debt. Her tight control of Foreign Exchange dictates what and how much she Imports her annual trade total figure has its about 7 billion and exports and 7 billion and imports over the past two years last year. China's exports to the US amounted to 200. Well her imports from the US amount of 135 million. While us Imports of agricultural goods from China have gradually increased US exports of agricultural products have diminished during the last two years. How fast can is Imports grow depend on how fast your exports grow? The government hopes that her gold neck and Eyes by 1980 will also provide increased exports surprisingly China has placed the responsibility of increasing exports on the local rural industries of the farmers initially the local Industries will export food products Leather wear and simple consumer goods eventually when her domestic needs are met she may export more far. She has already been exporting some farm machinery. Mechanization will therefore benefit yields as well as free Farm labor for local Industries to produce for export. China's Imports in the future will focus on high technology equipment such as oil drilling and exploration equipment and complete plants such as the for synthetic fiber factories and 13 large fertilizer plants purchase recently ization campaign will increase Imports of agricultural machinery. The Only Exception might be Imports of an unusually successful technology which is copied could be introduced more quickly than if designed and produced domestically and which would result in significant increases immediately. The same practice might apply to a recent purchases of insecticides. She will import them until she can duplicate them. These Imports however will be reduced if China has to import grain if weather conditions are unfavorable and China is not able to generate a 2.2% annual growth and grain production for import priority will shift from high technology items to grain. Furthermore her overall trade policy is to only import as much as she can export Canada Argentina and Australia will continue to be her primary. Grain suppliers us will be called upon only as a residual supplier as she was in 1973 and 1974 the US exported no range in China in 1975 and 1976. Because we have always been optimistic about the great potential of trading with China. We continue to search for signs of possible openings. Remember, how are pharmaceutical companies light it up at the farm supplying aspirins 850 million new customers. 1 limmer suggest cost the Chinese are still racing to eight and a half feet of cotton per person a year which covers of clothing and linens. Although synthetic textiles are available the Blends require cotton in addition during the last three years trying to has made more than a hundred million on export of cotton Fabrics to the web. She has imported raw cotton processed it and exported the finished goods back to some of the countries from which she bought the cotton the demand of course depends on the upswing in World demand for cotton textile. Does this activity suggest that China might eventually serve the same processing role as Korea Taiwan Hong Kong and Japan because she will be able to keep her labor cost lower than other countries. Would she be willing to develop a major industry which would be dependent on free market forces? At the present time China's choice of suppliers raw cotton as a us or USSR. Given her very negative feelings toward the USSR one might hold out. Hope for the US here again. We must remember that China's trade pattern has been influenced by political motivations. Frame to befriend third world countries as evidence in her preference to trade with them not only does trying to prefer to go to third world countries as her supplier, but it is increasingly possible that since she has experience in agriculture is so similar to other developing countries with a surplus labor force and scares land resources that she will be exporting more of her agricultural machinery and Technology expertise to these countries. The problem was depending on exporting to less-developed countries. However, is that they are uncertain Market since their own trading resources are limited. The outlook for China's trade is there for limited by number of factors? She will only import as much as she can export and her export capabilities are limited partially because of her growing domestic demands. Her import needs may be great, but they are limited by occasional shortfalls of rain. These limitations account for washes driving for agricultural self-sufficiency. This is also Why Us Farmers should not expect to be more than residual suppliers. These factors may also explain why China's foreign trade potential at this stage is limited by her philosophy of self-reliance and Independence.

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